percentages
 

Anybody wishing to include p/money or win place %s this may help.
Total p/money earned.
1=14.8%
2=12.2%
3=12.0%
Average p/money.
1=19.1%
2=15.5%
3=13.0%.
Win s/rate.
1=19.3%
2=15.2%
3=12.9%
Place s/rate.
1=21.7%
2=13.5%
3=12.6%.
Over 10,000 races used australia wide,hope this helps as what to expect if using these stats.
Apart from the poor s/rate of total p/money hardly anything between the rest.
cheers
garyf.

So if you simply backed the top 3 av prize earners dutch betting you would win around 50% of all races?

Yes approximately and also lose backing everyone of them with no filters.

Thanks for thos Garyf,

Id like to know what the strike rate and pot would be on highest average prizemoney earners who were not top prizemoney earners?

unsure if this was posted for my benefit , but these stats will
help me further progress on my Q+f system , thanks.
Any chance you could submit stats for placings on the same
info you just submitted.

much appreciated
Dog

Hi dale.
Sorry to dissapoint but after 1,000s> or so recording of bets the top rated average p/money loses overall betting all races everywhere aust only.

The loss on turnover only got worse as did the s/rate as you continued down the order.

The 4th av/p/moneys s/rate was 10.3 the 5th was 9.2.

The s/rate of 10% and less combined with losses on turnover
around the 30%> plus made it a waste to continue recording them.

The p/money will only become profitable when you apply certain filters just backing every 1-2-3 av p/money will result in double digit loss on turnover.

I wouldn't despair after 30> years on the punt buying 100s of mechanical systems joining dozens of rating services reading stacks of racing books etc their is only 1 stat i know of that makes a small level stakes (R.O.I)

Every stat i have ever surveyed loses just betting that one stat by itself
and betting every race in australia every day for say 10,000> races.

The trick is to find a stat you like then add your own filters to it so that it becomes profitable.

Yeah i know you all want to know what the stat is that makes a level stakes r.o.i after 10.000> races betting all races australia wide right.

1ST RATED PLACE STRIKE RATE RANKING (21.7% s/rate)
And a (3% roi level stakes) i know of no other (1 stat only) betting
every race in australia every day that makes a (LEVEL STAKES PROFIT)

If you do me and a lot of pro punters would love you to tell us
you have found shangri-la.


cheers
garyf.

Hi axledog.
No the stats i post are for everyone maybe some people can use them.

Can't help you with the placings as i use beaten margins rather than
placings as i find this a more accurate guide to a horses performance.

These are part of my selection technique i actually haven't recorded
beaten margins data as you would probably have to put them into groups.

Eg all horses that were beaten say <1.0 or less would then include multiple runners unless you wanted to break it down say( 0.1)( 0.2)( 0.3) etc which
would take forever to get sufficient data and the grouping wouldn't be an exact stat with several runners making up that stat thus giving a false reading.

Last stat winners win around 15% of all races but i don't know 2nd-3rd.

Sorry the above answes iare not more helpful.

Good luck with your system building.

cheers
garyf.

If one wishes to use a data base where one can analyse the top ranked place percentage against winning lengths last start...

You could use GTX cost approx $5000 with everything .
Or
Online System Builder - Free (Google)
Its a brilliant piece of kit it is.


Here's a win method created using that site.
So far 55%SR & 46% POT Sat Metro only.

This is the Holy Grail - believe it or not.
& I will bet that nearly all punters wont use it, because they rather chase lots of bets rather than profit.
Even though its got Holy Grail stamped on the tin & all.
Funny that.

RULES
Sat Metro all tracks

Race No. 1-7

Win Ranking less than 4

Place Rank 1

Dist 1100-2240

Career starts greater than 2

Won LS

LS Margin greater than 3 lngs

Dist Difference to last start -400 to +400m

Garyf,

That wasnt my question,ive been at this long enough to know the realities of this game and what it takes to win,thank you!

If anyone can answer my question it would be appreciated.

Cheers.

Hi Dale, did he make you feel cranky?

hi Bhagwan, going to run this thru my db - could you clarify this filter - seems to be saying 'beaten by more than 3 lengths last start' - Im assuming it would be 'less than 3 lengths'?

hi dale.
Misinterpreted the question thought you wanted the 2-3-4-5 etc p/money rankings down the line in order of s/rate and profitability at 1.00am this morning when posting i was half asleep sorry about that.

Will let the bhagwan answer this one if he wants to.?

cheers
garyf.

A couple of (form filters) i use may improve the s/rate and pot when using the
1st ranked pl% as a starting point.
1=(x1)

2=(1-2)(1-3)

3=(2-1) (3-1)

cheers
garyf.

So the system is back the horse with the top place SR?
Or is there another rule to go with this?

If its just the one rule, it showed a pretty bad loss at TAB prices of around 20%.

The year i surveyed a fair while ago it on a database it actually made a profit.
Hence i made it a rule with some filters for a mechanical system with form filters.
Now that i use ratings i haven't revisited it but like everything else may be losing in current times.

With the tote takeout and rounding down of dividends to about 18% and maybe people becoming aware of that years profitability imaybe now overbet.

Would be interested to know the period you surveyed what the s'rate was
and if it remained around the 20-21% mark?.

A book called cosistency published by malcolm knowles several years ago actually made me aware of the profit the first ranked place % made.

I have the book sitting in front of me now it's a 16 page booklet outlying this fact with several pages on how to improve the level stakes profit.

For the life of me i can't find anywhere in the book to say the year it was published.

The front cover has a picture of about 6-7 horse and underneath the
words punting for profit through learning.

If anyone out there has a similiar copy who knows the year it was published
could you please post the details here the same year he published a book called prize money which i also have which may jolt someones memory.

What may actually be more pertinent is if someone out their with a data base covering every race in aus over the last 12 months could look up the s/rate.

Obviously me and hundreds of others who purchased the book used it in some capacity thus lowering the average dividend to make it unprofitable.

I still use the stat today as a filter unfortunately me going back checking it out would be an incorrect stat as i only would have it listed in certain states race types etc not all races as required.

Would really be interested to know if the s/rate of around 21% still holds up.

cheers.
garyf.

Researcher
 

Consistency book published in 1998.

Thanks

Hi Gary, will check the figures when I get home again tonight if someone else doesnt post any up. From memory, yes the SR held up around that mark, but the loss was as mentioned around 20%, that was probably over a years data starting from the middle of last year when I cancelled the test, as I couldnt see it recovering from that loss to be anything worthwhile.

gary, ran thru my db which has over 6000 individual races-

win s/rate 19.51%
lot 10.61% @ bf starting price

all states showed a loss except West Australia with a 9%pot

Acknowling data source?
 

This data appears to be an exact summary of Malcolm Knowles findings on prizemoney and win/place percentages. I have read all his books and have been relying on place % for almost 20 years but now find all the value is gone in recent years. In fact I have kept results for several years and find that on metro tracks the figures are not quite as good as those stated and they now produce a LOT whereas once they produced POT.

Thats exactly correct gunny that's what i was trying to ascertain.

Unfortunately in 2011 the value has now been sadly eroded like the pl%.

The only thing that remains reasonably constant is all the relevant s/rates.

With thorns and stugots back checking it's now 100% clear everything loses.

A sign of the times i guess with so much info now available.

Thanks for all the work stugots much appreciated.

Guess it's only a matter of time till W.A shows a loss
like the other states unfortunately.

cheers
garyf.

Firstly the important stuff that very few people understand. I don't want anyone to take offense at this but the issue with most punters and I mean 99% of punters is they do not research thoroughly enough (or they don't know how to research properly) They do not understand the mathematics of what they are looking at. If you only understand basic probability then creating systems is not for you. If you understand advanced concepts on distributions, expectations, etc then you are going to have a basis from which you may do well.

Now back to the quote.

Do ratings count ?

I know of one selection filter that has 19000+ selections and makes a level stakes profit (1% to 34% depending on the odds you obtain on betfair).

I know of at least 1 free ratings available on the web that provides level stakes profit with no filters. (approx 2% after 9000+ bets).

I know of another rating system that is showing level stakes profit of 5% after 4500+ bets. (again free on the web)

I know of 1 stat (not a rating) that makes a level stakes profit.
Actually depending on what you use (top one or top few) you get a 1% profit or a 50% profit.

Are these stats and filters known to alot of people. Yes and No. But the stats I use are probably not known in the format I use it so the twist I use will probably remain hidden enough for me to make long term profits. Its worked for quite a few years already.


Now why would I give away my edge. Thats the ludicrus part unless I was going to sell books. (which I am not going to do).

Is this directed at me wes because the 1st pl% that was profitable 10 years ago that still maintains its s/rate but now these days has a lower average dividend is losing which as a straight stat i was unaware of.

When used with my ratings it's still profitable what i didn't know was that by itself it is now unprofitable.

"Id like to know what the strike rate and pot would be on highest average prizemoney earners who were not top prizemoney earners? "

Dale

If I read this correctly, you must mean it race by race, where I would have to exclude the top PM earner (not API), then select the highest API horse and see what the S/R and POT would have been?

Am I correct?

It can be done but would be a bit slow to run because one would have to practically re-rate past races. Should be easier to do it while checking results, day to day.
See what I can do.
Cheers

gary,

Not spefici at you. Jsut general info for everyone.

Dale,

It doesn't make a difference. I can run it for you in 20 mins. Got to put my daughter to bed.

OK.

See post 28

Sorry Dale looks like someone is trying to make it into a race.
Happy to help but can't be bothered entering.

Good luck

Iomaca just helping you out as you said it would be slow for you to do. Not so for me as I already have that information.

The result si 12% lot at unitab prices and a strike rate of 21.95%.
It makes a small (less then 1% profit using betfair figures).

Wes.
Probably should have started a new thread but anyway.
If you get time can you check back for this please.
Sat metro only.
Last start metropolitan winners only.
last start days 1-14.
last start starting price less than <4-1($5.0)
s/price $3.0-$11.0.
Sydney and melbourne only.
This will be a once off thing only a punting mate of mine has been using this
system since 1992 as he is overseas a lot he bets on it irregularly.
He maintains it's still profitable i say no hope in this day an age.
We have had a wager on the outcome.
The most recent 500 bets you can find is fine s/price for winners only.
No hurry i can wait to be paid.
cheers
garyf.

Wes sorry forgot one more rule
Distance 1000-1700.
cheers
garyf.

Thanks Lomaca and Wesmip1,

I did think it would improve the figures,thanks for confirming.

Cheers.

Hi Stugots,
That 3 lenths was for last start winner that is Place ranked No.1

In other words -
Top plc Ranking
Won LS by 3+ lengths.

not a lot of action Bhagwan so would send me nuts, but I did find that omitting fillies, win% <40% & sp rank >=3 improved it considerably