How to get into the top 3% of punters (winners)
 

I fully support posters here who have suggested that most punters dont have discipline. I'm gulty of that too. I'm sure there are systems that are profitable, but the first sign of a run of outs and most of us run for the hills and look for something else. The system needs to be logical and not backfitted within an inch of it's life.

Your system needs to be different to what everyone else is doing. Find a rule, or and edge, something / anything that cannot easily be retrieved from a database or ..... an element in your system which allows for the removal of a selection (eg: gear change, breeding).

It seems everyone spends an inordinate amount of time trying to find the class horse, the fittest horse, the weighted special, barrier, course, distance ..... and dont take luck into account. How can you account for luck?! Well you can't, so nothing can be taken for granted, but some of these filters like the barrier and weight are over-rated as to their influence on the outcome of a race. You need to have luck in this caper and need to understand it is a more important element than some filters. Just accept that it will go against you and may be a part of your system performing badly.

To get to the top 3% you need to do something that the other 97% aren't doing. You're NOT battling the bookies, you're battling against the 15% take-out from the TAB or other betting equivalent ..... and ..... the other 97% of the punters.

Hi Barney,
Its not too hard to beat the majority who in my observations are 1 horse a race punters.
Thats ok for a bit of fun (and we all need that) but will never make any long term meaningful profits in my opinion,

Cheers
darky

Ok , understood. But what is it that seperates one from everyone else?
Luck , well , it will send u to the poor house. opinion only. But do understand
exactly what you are saying. DD , "one horse a race punters" will be only for fun
and not generate a profit , co-incides with the STUFF ive been fooling with
(no not my wife!). If luck or multiple runners , do i dutch bet or level stake each
runner? Heres what my short system threw up for tomorrow -

WA Race 6
4-6-7-9
SR Race 5
1-3-6-8
SR Race 6
1-2-4-7-12
SR Race 7
2-4-7-13

What should i do in this instance?
Any help appreciated.
Thanks , The Dog.

I used to have issues with multiples with my ratings, i started eliminating anything under $4 if i had 4 runners, then i looked at the strike rates of each selection and found the top 2 were the most profitable in terms of strike rate v average dividend.

Hi Axledog,

Some interesting selections there. Not knowing the accuracy or system of selection, I would advise following the market and dropping no. 9 out of WA race 6, no. 12 out of SR race 6 and no's 7 & 13 out of SR race 7 (currently $41, $126, $51 and $121 fixed) from your selections.

This would leave you with:
WA Race 6
4-6-7 Prices: $8/$2.25-$15/4.30-$15/4.30
Dutching Profit: WIN/PLACE 287% / 9.9%

SR Race 5
1-3-6-8 Prices: $14/3.40-$19/4.30-$3.40/1.44-$2.80/1.33
Dutching Profit: WIN/PLACE 28% / -50.83%

SR Race 6
1-2-4-7 Prices: $21/6-$16/4.8-$13/4-$9/3
Dutching Profit: WIN/PLACE 235% / 4.35%

SR Race 7
2-4
$4.6/1.8-8.5/2.7
Dutching Profit: WIN/PLACE 202% / 8%

The Dutching figures for the place, are if only one horse fills the place. I have used Unitab fixed prices for this example, however if you shop around you should get much better odds.

Dutching will smooth out the betting cycle as you have more on the more fancied runners. I'd concentrate first on making sure your selections are profitable and then seeking the best odds wherever possible.

A link to an easy to use dutching calculator:
Dutching Calculator

Hope this is of some assistance Axledog and good luck! Shaping as a great days racing!

The Schmile

NZ horse racing today in Sydney, so one woud think the trainer is not just coming over here for the weather ..... TICK !

Generally speaking, I don't believe the following filters are worth taking into account .....

• the barrier (over-rated),
• days since last start as the "less than 21 days" shows a bias against winners compared with the number of runners, and if you take into account the good record of exactly 7 days, then it makes it even worse,
• usually wouldn't worry about the weight, but because it's carrying a fairly decent impost I've confirmed that it can successfully carry the weight

Is an on-pacer ..... TICK !

Good Strike Rate ..... TICK !

Wall Street ticks all the boxes for mine.

Hi Barny,
The quickest and simplest way and I use this myself and have done for 32 years is to just add 1 to the number of selections and use that as my MINIMUM acceptable price.

The "correct way" ala Don Scott is to frame your own market and bet those that are your prices or better.

Too much mucking around in my opinion.

Good luck today.

Cheers and warmest regards
darky

In the case of outrageous races like rosehill race 3 where More Joyous is $1.10 the win just bypass them.
Odds on horses win 58 % and yes lose 42 % (but its not a stat that I go against EVER.)
And sheesh there,s much more suitable races to bet on.
Its running as I write this so I,m curious but would never even entertain the thought of actually betting on that one.

Cheers
darky

ps Hope that bookies got tossed though.

Hi Axledog,

With that win of Rangi's in the George Ryder your selections are in front at level stakes after your second race, dutching wouldn't have fared so well.

Nice going though, on a tough day at Rosehill so far.

The 7 Hot Snitzel in the Slipper has been crunched. Maybe throw it back into calculations. Could be the Corey Brown factor more than form? He's on fire.

The Schmile.

Rangirandoo had the best place SR of all ..... hmmmm

Wall Street ran in the Cox Plate, missed the start by about half a length and just didn't get into the race after that, but still ran OK. There were no so You Think's in todays race tho'.

Hi darky, can you explain the just add 1 to the number of selections (what selections ?) please. I've read it before but don't follow what you mean.

If you want to bet your top 4 selections add 1 and back your top 4 if you can get better than $5, or top 2 selections would be better than $3

Just saw the result of WA race 6.

Ummmm.....maybe keep Mekong Miss no. 9..... ha ha

Won at $58.80 best tote.

Nice selections axledog!!!!!

The Schmile

I most certainly agree now that luck in running does have an element in our quest to get the upper hand on our rival punters. However , to obtain that luck ,you must have some base as to how you want to achieve this. For instance , in my Q+F system , the basic rules are mainly course and distance stats and Darky has swayed me into the place % factor. I was breaking even and/or a slight loss/profit on my 6 sub-systems by backing only the one selection while seeing the other contenders that where close but eliminated due to one rule saluting at large odds. So i have been working on taking 4-5 selections and either dutch or level staking them. The last two weeks havent worked out so bad , so when i seen this thread i thought id post a few up.

SR 6 # 2 Rangirandoo
Simple , 90% place strike rate - Top average prizemoney - Taking on a mare at WFA and a champion to boot!!!
Salutes......$14.10

WA 6 # 9 Mekong Miss
Simple , 13 starts at Ascot for 6 wins. Every second time this mare hits the track she crosses the line in front.
Salutes......$58.80

Great profit today (+56.90 units) , anyone can be in that top 3% if they do a little homework first and then ride their LUCK!

Thanks guys with all your help , will give me some incentive to pursue more!!!

I had another good day last weekend using this (hurtle myrtle - Tip a winner 9th april) and profited 12.8 units (total 69.7) just thought id post as a matter of interest this weeks selections.
SR 5 - 2 . 3 . 4
SR 8 - 7 . 8 . 11
BR 7 - 3 . 8 . 10 . 16 . 17
AR 5 - 2 . 8 . 9 . 14
AR 7 - 9 . 12 . 16
(all level staked - 18 units out)

After 2 races and the scratching of Buccellati in Sydney , Echoes of heaven salutes in race 5 Adelaide (#9). 17 units out , a return of 16.2 , so three races now to make a profit.

Axle, are your selections in an order?

How have they fared for Quins and Trifs?

Thanks Max .

Mate never thought about it , will do now and post results shortly.
After another scratching on saturday and alas no more
wins after the echoe , still took profit. (0.2 only - but profit non the less)

Max ,

please remember , ive only thrown this around for
the last three weeks , and , even though im searching for the
longer priced horses , ive hit only one a week. Prices have been good , but
profit = 70 odd units and one winner Meekong Miss payed 58's.
This will probably only ever be a little fun.
In the reply to your question , i learnt something myself. In races evaluated with 4-5 runners we have 9 races -
only 2 quinellas - $14.70 and $257.90
only 1 trifecta - $6733.50

hmmm.......

Thinking again , do i persist or not.(Backing level stakes only , maybe better
going wider)

You are so close. There must be a way to refine these into a couple of selections that are the better choices?

Just 4 fun
 

Gold Coast

Race 4 - #1-3-4-7-10
Race 5 - #6-7-10-14-15
Race 6 - #4-7-8-10-13
Race 7 - #2-3-6-7
Race 8 - #1-7-11-12-18

Canterbury

Race 6 - #2-3-9-11

Hi Axledog, you cunning ol dog you.
Well done on those results.

Here's a strong way of dealing with those 4 selections per race.

.You can do it to them doggystyle ,by betting 3 units on the shortest horse & 2 units on the others.
e.g. 3 + 2 + 2 + 2

This will deal with the angst you must feel when the shorter prices get up on the day , yet still getting impact on the longer prices.

--------------------------------------------------------
Dutching may not make you happy when you see the larger payers get up.
Dutching is best used if the shorter prices are mainly winning amongst your selections .

Here's a tip to selecting races which are going to pay well, which should increase your profits on your successful selections.

.Tip: Only target races where the 2nd Fav is $4.50+ in live market.
Any less - no bet race.

Your bets will be less but your percentage Profit on Turnover should be much greater.

Let us know, how you go.

Thanks Bhags,

Due to work i have trouble betting during the day,
so i just bet and forget. Maybe a BOT might help.
Any ways , lets see what eventuates here today.

Is it a Bot you would like to have a go at, I hear you say

Here's one for you to have a go at.

Its at the right price too... Free

Google.
BetSoftPro

Just 4 Fun
 

Scone Race 7 - 4 . 8 . 10 . 12 . 15
Doomben Race 5 - 1 . 2 . 3 . 10 . 15
Doomben Race 6 - 1 . 3 . 4 . 5 . 10
Doomben Race 7 - 3 . 4 . 5 . 6 . 8 (Caviar?)
Belmont Race 7 - 8 . 9 . 11 . 12 . 13

Start my own?
 

Bhags,

mate , havent tried your bot yet or your stake plan ,
but just attempting my own bets , dropped last months
bets (Rangi - mekong miss) and started fresh for May.
Results are -
15 races - 8 winners 69 out 80.50 in
Positive 11.50
Not so good without Mekong at 60/1 but still showing red.
Feel bad about jacking a thread , might start own for the
winter carnival.
Have the Q+F system running (show results soon) and might call
this one the H+M system (Hit or Miss).
Time will tell and thanks for your help.
PS. Sorry if i took a thread.
PSS. Max please contact me , we have the same ideas!
PSSS. 13 from 13. History.......?(u all Know what im talkin)
__________________________________________________ ___

I live 4 fun.....but cash helps!

Axle. I cannot PM you. Must be because I am a noob. Email at max stuff 09 @ gmail . Com as I would love to chat and mix it up a bit