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-   -   Makin' cents of Greyhounds, No foolin' (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=21313)

moeee 2nd April 2011 01:08 PM

Makin' cents of Greyhounds, No foolin'
 
The MEADOWS Race 1

1 ALLEN ZANDER $3
2 PINK BANDANNA $4.2
6 LUCENT $6.4
7 MIDNIGHT ECLIPSE $9
5 ALLEN SHAUL $12
4 COCO HOKO POKO $15
9 WANDY LAYLA $60
8 DON'T COMMIT $500

I've taken the $3.40 about Allen Zander Fixed Odds for $10
I'm just tired of ********fartin' about trying to get best Odds , or bagging some sort of Exotic and all that sort of stuff

Work out the Odds needed, if theys available, grtab 'em

And I'll be posting a running total of how I'm travelling from now because I'ld like everyone to know how clever I am :) , even though the stuff I been posting lately is best forgotten :(

moeee 2nd April 2011 03:09 PM

MEADOWS Race 5
 
5 HAYDER BALE $3.8
2 WHAT SIZE $5.2
6 TONNELI BALE $5.3
1 HAMEL $5.8
7 RYKER BALE $14
3 LADY LATINO $16
9 MAGIC RUBBLE $33
10 LEKTRA BOB $40

Fortunately I have some control over my Gamblerholicness here , and am staying out of this Race.
Top 4 selections in my Quaddie onle.

woof43 2nd April 2011 03:45 PM

Race 5 Meadows
 
Been a big day at the races, I'll try an post some of my stuff later,
but just looking at this race prior to scratchings
I thought the #1 had a great chance even though it has ordinary 2nd sectionals, it really is drawn to get a nice run, with both the dogs drawn outside of it moving off the rails, and most of the outside dogs pushing inside, I think the #5 will find it hard to have an interference free run early, with the #6 just about checking all dogs drawn under at every start, it's crucial for the #5 to get a clean run early. You then have the #3 who will just about lead these maybe doing a head and head with the #5 and at the same time trying to push wide.

woof43 2nd April 2011 03:57 PM

Meadows Race 7
 
Race 7 split times
Box 1st Split Rating
1 5.146
2 5.135
3 5.160
4 5.131
5 5.266
6 5.074
7 5.179
8 5.155
very even set of splits here, but a few dogs are slow beginners then drive to the first turn, these dogs cause trouble.
I have the #6 a 3.20 chance of leading at the first turn, It has two slow beginners drawn either side, the #7 & #8 will stay where they as both like racing wide.Dogs drawn from box 5 to box 2 will all move to the rails at the start, this spells problems for the #3, I think it will do it tough tonight.
As said before the #8 especially is drawn to perform well, other dog who may perform well is the #2 it will need to jump in front of the #1 who will then push off the track. around $9 may be the right price for this dog considering the threat of interference.

moeee 2nd April 2011 04:32 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by woof43
I think the #5 will find it hard to have an interference free run early, with the #6 just about checking all dogs drawn under at every start, it's crucial for the #5 to get a clean run early. You then have the #3 who will just about lead these maybe doing a head and head with the #5 and at the same time trying to push wide.


I've got the #5 being slow enough early to avoid any interference and slipping safely to the rails.
But yeah, the permutations of this start are infinite, and best be stay out.
And yeah , the #3 is an excellent chance if it leads, but I don't like it in this class.

moeee 2nd April 2011 04:37 PM

MEADOWS Race 6
 
6 NO JUSTICE $3.8
8 STACK 'EM FLAT $4.8
2 GARIS GARIS $7.9
1 NAPOLEON TIGER $8
7 MAMIE BALE $11
3 STEPPING STONE $14
4 SOUL CALIBUR $16
5 OKIE BALE $20

A couple of Quinellas with Garis Garis
6 - 2 for $2.50
2 - 8 for $2

The top 2 selections go in my Quaddie.

woof43 2nd April 2011 04:51 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
I've got the #5 being slow enough early to avoid any interference and slipping safely to the rails.
But yeah, the permutations of this start are infinite, and best be stay out.
And yeah , the #3 is an excellent chance if it leads, but I don't like it in this class.


I don't think it really pushes to the rails, it's last start it hit the lids before the boxes opened, I have it generally racing centre of track to first turn or it holds it box position, I think it will make it hard for the #6 to bore over at the start.

moeee 2nd April 2011 05:55 PM

MEADOWS Race 7
 
6 ALLEN HERTZ $3.3
2 UNLOCK THE CODE $6.1
5 TIMBO $9.2
1 SHIRAZ COLOUR $9.3
3 CAROL ALLEN $10
4 MAGIC DASHER $13
8 PROVEN PUZZLE $13.1
7 SHEER KISMET $14

Not a good betting Race, but I can't let it go without some sort of Wager.
EXACTAS with Allen Hertz to win
6 - 2 for $2
6 - 5,1 for $1.50

moeee 2nd April 2011 06:02 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by woof43
I don't think it really pushes to the rails, it's last start it hit the lids before the boxes opened, I have it generally racing centre of track to first turn or it holds it box position


Thats strange.
I've always known it as a railer.
So I checked its last 5 starts and it looked for the rails at 4 of those runs.

Woof43 - what does it mean when the FormGuide has this Comment : Q1111R,Sw
I know Q means quick and R means Rails , but what means "Sw" ?

moeee 2nd April 2011 06:25 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
The MEADOWS Race 1

1 ALLEN ZANDER $3
2 PINK BANDANNA $4.2
6 LUCENT $6.4
7 MIDNIGHT ECLIPSE $9

I'm just tired of ********fartin' about trying to get best Odds , or bagging some sort of Exotic and all that sort of stuff



I couldn't help meself , and purchased a $2 FlexiTri.
I had this : 1,2-1,2,6,7-5,6,7-5,6 (FLEXI 14.2857%)
I was supposed to have 7 for 4th, but didn't notice I forgot to check its Box in my haste to get my last second decision to wager.
Fortunately it came in , but would have bin very frustrating to think I had the correct combination, but messed up.
Anyway, I gets back $24.
What this is all about is thats the reason I have trouble posting winning wagers.

Regardless, the running Total here is Outlay of $10 with ZERO Return :(

EDIT: - Where it says FlexiTri, should read FlexiFirst 4.

woof43 2nd April 2011 06:41 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
Thats strange.
I've always known it as a railer.
So I checked its last 5 starts and it looked for the rails at 4 of those runs.

Woof43 - what does it mean when the FormGuide has this Comment : Q1111R,Sw
I know Q means quick and R means Rails , but what means "Sw" ?


swabbed

I'm sure it means swabbed.

When I say rails to centre or wide I'm just talking in reference to how it runs to the first turn, not how it handles the turns
I think its last start when it hit the lids , I'm sure it headed to the rails after twenty metres or so, but generally it holds its ground to the turn

moeee 2nd April 2011 07:06 PM

Thanks Woof.
Yes, Swabbed sounds good.
The Sw only seems to turn up when the animal wins, or occasionally runs second.

The Quaddie is looking very difficult.
Looks to me if I bags it, then I bags it for maybe less than 2% worth :(

moeee 2nd April 2011 07:48 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
RACE 5

Fortunately I have some control over my Gamblerholicness here , and am staying out of this Race.
Top 4 selections in my Quaddie onle.


Control???
Yeah sure, in my dreams.
Got really close to buying a First 4 , but went instead for the more easier FlexiTri.
Had I went First 4 , I mighta got a percentage.
Instead, I lost a dollar on this : 1,2,5,6-1,2,5,6-3 (FLEXI 8.3333%)

moeee 2nd April 2011 07:52 PM

RACE 8
 
2 ALLEN ELROY $3.4
3 BIRTHDAY BOY $4.7
7 ENRY WALT $5.8
8 LEKTRA SHARP $10
4 DON CHENDO $14
1 BANGER HARVEY $15
6 ROYAL CHOIR $20
5 MUNGO MAN $25

$6 on Birthday Boy at the $7 Fixed Odds for me.
Plus an EXACTA for $2.50 on 2 - 3 as a Saver.

woof43 2nd April 2011 07:58 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
Control???
Yeah sure, in my dreams.
Got really close to buying a First 4 , but went instead for the more easier FlexiTri.
Had I went First 4 , I mighta got a percentage.
Instead, I lost a dollar on this : 1,2,5,6-1,2,5,6-3 (FLEXI 8.3333%)


you really need to develop a matrix of trifecta stacks or F4 stacks depending on what situation arises.

moeee 2nd April 2011 08:08 PM

Too Late now, but not for next time
 
I just downloaded the Weights sheet.

2 things I noticed were a large decrease in weight for HAMEL, who won, and also a Large decrease in weight for Napoleon Tiger, who just missed.

I knew weights were important, but the problem is I do my studies before weights are released.
I really must put a Question Mark on runners returning from spell from now on until the Weights are released.

woof43 2nd April 2011 08:14 PM

Most good performances are normally when a dog weighs less than the its average LTD race weight.

moeee 2nd April 2011 08:15 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by woof43
you really need to develop a matrix of trifecta stacks or F4 stacks depending on what situation arises.


You need to understand that I only invested a dollar!!!
I don't know how much you invest Woof43, but would you bother messing about with the intricacies if you only wagered a dollar a Race?

If I ever become skilled enough to go Professional, I would contemplate it, but I really don't think that is the reason I am losing.
The reason I am losing is because I am not anticipating the start of the Race well enough as yet.
And also my Markets need work.
They do not allow , for example, the problems Hayder Bale will have to negotiate, and the lack of obstacles that HAMEL would have.

And well done in selecting Hamel, Woof43, I'm sure you are continuing your BIG DAY into tonight.

I'm still alive in my Quaddie and need #2 or #3 to win the Last Leg to collect 1,2,5,6/6,8/F/2,3 (FLEXI 2.3437%)

moeee 2nd April 2011 08:30 PM

Well I had the ol' , "The Favourite wins every time I take a Field in a leg of the Quaddie" happen again :(

But Race 7 was another example of where I had a rough idea that Carol Allen would lead, and therefore I should have had it shorter in My Market.
Plus it went a fair way down in weight, and Lo and Behold, My SPECIAL "Allen Hertz" went up nearly a kilo :(

Thank goodness there is more racing tomorrow to make amends for tonights blunders!!
Plus 2 more events tonight :)

woof43 2nd April 2011 08:32 PM

Well done on No Justice.

couldn't get set on Betfair that dog, it was kept very tight.

It wouldn't matter how much was invested Moee, that tri bet just didn't make sense.

woof43 2nd April 2011 08:34 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
Well I had the ol' , "The Favourite wins every time I take a Field in a leg of the Quaddie" happen again :(

But Race 7 was another example of where I had a rough idea that Carol Allen would lead, and therefore I should have had it shorter in My Market.
Plus it went a fair way down in weight, and Lo and Behold, My SPECIAL "Allen Hertz" went up nearly a kilo :(

Thank goodness there is more racing tomorrow to make amends for tonights blunders!!
Plus 2 more events tonight :)


Both from the same kennel, makes you re-think your investment

woof43 2nd April 2011 09:00 PM

Race 10 Meadows
 
Box 1st Split Rating
1 $7.60
2 $6.05
3 $3.31
4 $4.86
5 $5.46
6 $384.62
7 $147.06
8 $416.67
The #7 is the best dog by far in this race but how it runs it's races will give you a heart attack, #8 will stay out where it is giving it a clean run early, # 1 is awkward around the 1st turn needing some ground, The #2 will move a bit of the rails early, I'm thinking the #3 will make the race from the #5 and the #7 will have to run them down, it just needs to be 3 or 4 lenghts of them down the back straight.

moeee 2nd April 2011 09:24 PM

Gimme a suggested Wager for the last tonight please Woof43.
I have a spare $3 to dispose of.

moeee 2nd April 2011 09:30 PM

Post Mortem
 
Well thats that then :(

Down $34 without a single collect, but was somewhat stiff when the door wouldn't open when Birthday Boy tried to force his way through along the rails with only 50 metres to go.
But no excuse for the poor night where all the other Wagers weren't even warm.

What I hate most was that I felt so good about tonight when doing the Form !!

moeee 3rd April 2011 10:03 AM

GEELONG Race 6
 
1 RADLEY BALE $1.7
2 STAR DIAMOND $4.1
8 ZERO'S HERO $14
4 LIESEL $25
6 DRIPSTONE $40
5 LEKTRA BILLY $50
3 MINU BALE $70
7 MELALUKA LAD $100

Not a good betting Race even though the results are predictable.
I'll go a Trifecta

1 - 2 - 8 for $4

moeee 3rd April 2011 10:26 AM

Race 6 Late Scratching
 
1 RADLEY BALE $1.2
8 ZERO'S HERO $12
4 LIESEL $20
6 DRIPSTONE $50
5 LEKTRA BILLY $66
3 MINU BALE $70
7 MELALUKA LAD $100

Still a Trifecta
1 - 8 - 4 for $5

Unless I can get good Odds ($2.80) about the Exacta 1 - 8 for $10 worth

moeee 3rd April 2011 10:34 AM

2nd Thoughts
 
Due to Weight Variations regarding my 2nd and 3rd Selections, the Wager has now changed.

Geelong Race 6

The bet is now a FlexiFour
1 - 8,4 - 8,4,6,5,3 - 8,4,6,5,3 for $5 worth

moeee 3rd April 2011 12:37 PM

Post Mortem
 
Finally a Collect.
Could have been bigger if not for going the safety way, but a collect is good just the same.

OUTLAY $40
RETURN $20

Still have a couple at Sandown and a couple at Sale.

moeee 3rd April 2011 01:42 PM

SANDOWN Race 6
 
7 ZURI DIAMOND $2.9
3 SEASPRAY SURFER $6.7
1 LIMBURG POWER $7.5
5 WILD VIKI $9
6 CONNOR'S FURY $10
4 BESTEARS $12
2 EYES LIKE GOOFA $14
8 SHAUNY BADTOOTH $50

I've got Zuri Diamond leading here and managing to hold off a lot of good finishers.
FlexiTri for $6 worth
7 - 3,1,5,6 - 3,1,5,6,4

moeee 3rd April 2011 05:39 PM

SALE Race 5
 
6 BRIAN BORU $5
1 FAST EDDIE MAC $6.4
4 UNIQUE CHAOS $7
7 SPICEY LUKE $7.8
2 LISA'S PEARL $8.7
3 WRECK AND ROLL $9.8
5 REGAL WOO $10
8 BAD BOY PEDRO $15

A Box Quinella for a Unit here 6,1,4

EDIT : Make it a $2 Unit :)

moeee 3rd April 2011 06:44 PM

Oh Boy :(
 
SALE Race 8

1 OUR BUDDY $2.9
2 OSKA NEVEELK $5.4
6 CREWSAN JAY JAY $6
5 RED SOLE $8.1
3 BIG ROSE $11.2
7 LACEY PAPER $15
8 DENISON FLASH $50
4 GOOMBY $125

Some FlexiTris and Fours
$3 on each of them

1
265
2653
26537

moeee 3rd April 2011 06:59 PM

What can I say?
 
OUTLAY $60
RETURN $20

In the REAL World I'm actually not doing as bad as that.
I'm probably losing the 15% Commish which even the most capable dart thrower can do.

Goodnight.


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