Following the cash
 

on the IAS site they show when some big bets are placed, I've noticed when its a substantial bet say like $5000 win etc the success rate seems to be particularly high.

Has anyone followed this for any length of time?

Hi party,

Are refering to the "big bets" that is accessible in ************** site?

it probably is one and the same, as I know WTB plug IAS a fair bit

There has been programs targeting this specific activity Qld based LSB. it is usually in the last seconds of betting Beton

I remember I inquired about one of those Queensland based ones once years back. They took me through the program live online and they had a platform that showed all the bets being placed with the totes and you also would have say 3 different tote accounts so you could get the best price back then.

From memory it did okay but there were some losing races. With the asking price being something like $10,000 I gave it a miss.

I tried to look at the VIC TAB site as they have the fluctuations and % amounts that horses have come in/gone out for the previous minute(s) or whatever but I didn't do too well so gave up on that idea.

I believe a few of the ddgy ones did the same thing. But what they did was say it was live but had a delay of 2 mins. Because your in a room with them you don't know it delayed unless you brought your own radio.

They would know who to bet as they already knew the winner.

This wasn't all of them but it definietly tarnished the image of anyne who provided similar software.

I was following Bhagwan's bet the 3rd fav in the first 6 races. There seems to be merit there but will need a bot. In the last five minutes you see a 4th or fifth fav at $9+ suddenly move to 2nd fav at $4.50. Again you would need a bot or sit at the screen all day. Even sitting at the screen i had visitors and phone calls as well as self induced lapses and missed bets by seconds or bet the third fav only for a fourth or fifth fav pip it, sometimes this was after the betting closed. Beton

A bot is the best way to go if you don't want to miss anything. It is a bit more disciplined and tends to pay more attention than the average bear. :)

And, don't forget, some people don't want to use it because they may have heard of horror stories losing their entrie account. If anyone is afraid of that just have minimum funds in the account you will be using (Aus or UK). If betting below minimum though, you will need to have at least the minimum bet amount ($5 in Aus) in your account plus the amount for the bet if backing and obviously the required liability if laying.

not quite what I was getting at but still no problem, as it has sparked some dialogue at least

Yeah party, lets get back to your original post.

I did a comprehensive study on the big bets but alas like everything else there was no merit in continuing with it.

I recorded the bets. number of bets on the same horse and the results.

Basically, there wasn't enough profit to be made to cover the loses. Generally when a big bet went on joe public would follow. Occasionally a bet would be made on an outsider but this again proved fruitless.

Cheers

A big Sydney bookie I used to work for had many sayings. One of them relates to this topic. If 1 person had $10000 on, it didn't worry him, if 2 had $5000 on, it didn't worry him, if 10 wanted $1000 on he took more notice, but when 500 people wanted $2 on (you get the idea) he really took notice.

That is the problem with follow the money systems, you have no idea how many bets that is.

Remember back when Ron Dufficy was doing that punters club with the TAB, he was rarely in profit but at times he could make the market move with some of the bets he placed.

And also include the bookies balancing their books and hedging their bets

Benton
 

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Hi Benton


Are you able to direct me to this link ?
I was following Bhagwan's bet the 3rd fav in the first 6 races.

Jack

Hey Jack.

It's under my thread here:

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_for...?t=21306&page=1

Well, I guess this myth is BUSTED!

Party
not busted. You just have work out what is smart money going on and what is herd money. I don't get into the Tab much. went a few times to top up my Tab account. The last minute the machines get swamped. Ditto with all the online punters. everyone is looking for how the market is reacting before they put they bet on. The smart money comes from those in know and the bookies balancing their books. This money only goes on in the last minute. That requires computing power and live access to the tote.

Smart money and tote..............the 2 don't really go together.

In the past i would agree Mark but today more and more people are being denied bets with bookies and unless BF has the volume the only other place is the tote.

I did an exercise over 30,000 races & found that there were days where it indeed gave the impression that so called smart money was indeed correct.

Then the next 2 days they all ran 4th.
How come that?

In other words ...
Some days did well & others did not.
It was 50/50 in the end.

To me following the smart money is the initial bet placed by
the few % of people who actually make a living out of the punt.

The rest is on course or corporates betting back and herd
mentality people on course seeing the horse shorten up.

Eventually this reflects on the various totes as it shortens.

I dont want to follow a big bet unless i knew who actually placed it.

What good is following big bets if placed by certain A.F.L.
footballers who have been in the news lately etc etc.

Answer you end up getting GELDED.(pocket wise).

So for me the source of where the bet came from
is more important than the bet size or anything else.

Cheers
garyf.

Hi Gary,
Interesting point you raise, however the mug money is almost always levelled by the smart money.

As an example, you see a lot of mug money go on certain horses and then the smart money comes in and adjusts the prices accordingly. I'm not sure about the IAS signals, as I think they might just be a bit of a red herring based on a comparison of the bets they say they took and the actual bookie ring fluctuations.

In the bookie ring the price usually blows out from the opening price before being snapped up and crunched in by the overall smart money.

I did a bit of a study on the "phenomenon" to see whether these movements were herd mentality or in reality "smart money". The results were astounding.

Given that we can't get Top Fluctuation after betting has started, I ignored top fluctuation prices and looked at other prices available.
To qualify, the final bookie price had to be less than the opening price on course.

921 of these movements were recorded.

Backing all movers that qualified (including 2 or 3 in each race where applicable).

NSWTAB 3.89% profit
SuperTab 5.70% profit
UNiTAB 2.93% profit

Best Tote 10.73% profit
Best Tote and SP 11.33% profit

This is without any other filters.

The real smarties who are "in the know" and take Top Fluctuation early, thereby somewhat driving market movements earn themselves a cool 16.13% return at Top Fluctuation.

The conclusion...

There is a lot of mug money, but the weight of the smart money overcomes the tab takeout on all three totes.
Therefore the smart money is dead on ;)

D'Day Chrome (long time no hear?) re the above , was that Saturday Metro only?

For sure backing shorteners in the market is much more profitable.

I actually have MORE on my bets if they shorten in the market.

What i actually meant was if i saw a big bet placed on a horse
overnight would i just go ahead and have a bet.

As a matter of interest i actually did a similiar survey on
horses that shortened in the betting s/price <$6.0 less than.



Say for eg.
A)$4.0-$5.0-$4.8.
B)$4.0-$5.0-$3.8.
C)$4.0-$5.0-$4.0.

In this example only B has firmed you wouldn't believe how
many people say all 3 have firmed your summary is spot on.

I actually didn't get as profitable figures as yours but an
advantage nevertheless.

Contradicted myself in the last post by comparing
a big bet placed on a horse to smart money (on course shorteners)

Having more on my bets when they shorten increases my
profits overall without having to meddle with the selection criteria.

Cheers
garyf.



.

Partypooper,

That was about 2 years of Country and Metro results.

I'm currently doing a more recent datamine which will identify if much has changed.
I can then work out if Betfair SP is still a better option, although I think I already know the answer. :)

I think Mark did some study on this, comparing Pre-post prices with Bookie opening prices.

He found many winners came from horses that were shorter with Bookie opening price than Pre-post prices.