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- - Form Factor Ratings (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=21357)

Shaun

8th April 2011 04:21 PM

Form Factor Ratings

Each day i will post my top 2 runners for selected races, i will keep a running total on level stakes units based on prices from IAS.

Here is an example from today's races.

Code:


Geelong Synthetic		Race	6
5. Royal Dalton		$3.17
4. Hachiman		$3.97
Casino				Race	8
6. Darshan Joh		$2.91
2. Show A Lion Heart	$3.93
Canterbury			Race	5
6. Red Tracer		$4.25
11. Magita		$5.49

Shaun

9th April 2011 08:49 AM

Here we go, i list the best class races from each state, these are the best for today all black type races.

Code:



Caulfield		Race	5
2. Elusive King		$3.94
1. Cuban Sunday		$4.66

Caulfield		Race	6
11. Dubleanny		$2.99
4. Lady Lynette		$4.61

Doomben			Race	7
2. Jasminka		$2.72
13. Geblitzt		$5.29

Morphettville Pk	Race	5
9. Triple Asset		$3.42
1. Cash Bound		$4.04

Morphettville Pk	Race	6
2. Giggleswick		$2.74
1. Precious Lorraine	$5.24

Morphettville Pk	Race	7
6. Believe 'n Achieve	$4.18
8. Budriguez		$5.01

Randwick		Race	1
6. Jackpot Queen	$2.60
7. Anise		$3.02

Randwick		Race	2
7. Needs Further	$2.50
5. Circle Of Power	$6.30

Randwick		Race	3
8. Older Than Time	$2.11
14. Anudjawun		$8.35

Randwick		Race	4
13. Lebrechaun		$4.19
5. Bold Glance		$5.21

Randwick		Race	5
7. Black Caviar		$2.17
11. Crystal Lily	$5.97

Randwick		Race	6
4. Do You Think		$4.00
8. Elite Falls		$4.36

Randwick		Race	7
1. Jimmy Choux		$2.15
3. Retrieve		$8.40

Randwick		Race	8
10. Ladys Angel		$3.67
2. Zingaling		$4.89

Randwick		Race	9
5. Raspberries		$2.88
9. Honor Net		$5.41

Shaun

9th April 2011 04:44 PM

Randwick was a swoopers track, a few times i had runners in the lead to be rolled in the straight.

It is fun starting with a loss.

Code:


Caulfield		Race	5
2. Elusive King		$3.94 Scr
1. Cuban Sunday		$4.66 

Caulfield		Race	6
11. Dubleanny		$2.99
4. Lady Lynette		$4.61 

Doomben			Race	7
2. Jasminka		$2.72 5.14
13. Geblitzt		$5.29

Morphettville Pk	Race	5
9. Triple Asset		$3.42
1. Cash Bound		$4.04

Morphettville Pk	Race	6
2. Giggleswick		$2.74
1. Precious Lorraine	$5.24 2.12

Morphettville Pk	Race	7
6. Believe 'n Achieve	$4.18
8. Budriguez		$5.01 3.02

Randwick		Race	1
6. Jackpot Queen	$2.60
7. Anise		$3.02 6.45

Randwick		Race	2
7. Needs Further	$2.50 2.82
5. Circle Of Power	$6.30

Randwick		Race	3
8. Older Than Time	$2.11
14. Anudjawun		$8.35

Randwick		Race	4
13. Lebrechaun		$4.19
5. Bold Glance		$5.21

Randwick		Race	5
7. Black Caviar		$2.17 1.31
11. Crystal Lily	$5.97

Randwick		Race	6
4. Do You Think		$4.00
8. Elite Falls		$4.36

Randwick		Race	7
1. Jimmy Choux		$2.15
3. Retrieve		$8.40

Randwick		Race	8
10. Ladys Angel		$3.67
2. Zingaling		$4.89

Randwick		Race	9
5. Raspberries		$2.88
9. Honor Net		$5.41

Result 6/15
SR 40%
Outlay 29
Return 20.86
Loss -8.14

Gerry

9th April 2011 06:18 PM

40% strike rate?

6 from 29 would return a strike rate of 20.69% when I went to school.

Gerry

Shaun

9th April 2011 08:14 PM

It would be if it was per selection rather than per race.

wesmip1

10th April 2011 06:24 AM

Shaun,

How are you staing pre race ? Is it is just 1 unit on ech selection ? or is it dutched ?

Shaun

10th April 2011 09:46 AM

I am dutching but for the results it is just 1 unit per selection.

I was ducting $10 per race yesterday and lost about $5 i went away from Black Caviar only because of the price and used my second/third picks.

In 90% of races i got better odds on betfair so that's a good sign.

wesmip1

10th April 2011 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun

I was ducting $10 per race yesterday and lost about $5 i went away from Black Caviar only because of the price and used my second/third picks.

How could you bet against black caviar. That horse is amazing. I thought even at $1.14 which is what the bookies were paying she was over the odds. The only reason she was up that high was due to it being her first time running clockwise.

When will she get beat ? I don't see it happening soon unless they put her in the completely wrong race and become arrogant. ie too long a distance or a very heavy track. But I think the trainer is too smart to do that.

Shaun

10th April 2011 10:12 AM

Yeah i know, i should have just stayed out and cheered her on.

Code:


Cranbourne		Race	6
5. Old Guard		$3.35
1. Reassemble		$3.57
Narrogin		Race	8
1. Lie In Wait		$3.54
7. Movie World		$4.38
Orange			Race	4
1. For Cruyff's Sake	$3.55
6. Hussonet Song	$5.85
Orange			Race	5
6. Dragon's Keep	$4.47
4. Chatterchic		$5.00
Port Lincoln		Race	4
2. Out For Lunch	$2.50
5. Hightom		$5.65
Port Lincoln		Race	5
2. Roll On Bai		$3.06
4. Dieselfuel		$4.27
Port Lincoln		Race	8
7. Yarterbery		$2.49
10. Bracken Blue	$6.68
Sunshine Coast		Race	3
1. Ima Joker		$3.45
4. Belletrist		$4.75
Wangaratta		Race	6
6. Nice And Neat	$2.64
8. Private Jeune	$6.39
Wangaratta		Race	7
17. Lordoftheparrots	$2.68
5. Becqu Adoree		$7.14

Shaun

10th April 2011 01:22 PM

Orange races look like a bit of a joke today so i am removing them as selections

Shaun

10th April 2011 03:40 PM

How best to take advantage of these selections?

At the moment i am dutching for a profit, this means equal profit no matter who wins, sounds simple enough, but what if we have a situation like Black Caviars race where the prices have a huge difference or take today's race Wangaratta race 6 the 2 horses were priced at $3.90 and $17.50 dutching these would return me about $20 profit splitting the stake would return me $9.50 and $77.50 profit.

Big difference on the longer priced runner, is there more options i was thinking maybe bet in units depending on price, your thoughts.

wesmip1

10th April 2011 04:49 PM

The best way to do this is to work out your confidence on each selection and assign odds to each.

Based on the estimated odds (and assuming they are better then the market) you kelly stake them (or half kelly to be safer).

Shaun

10th April 2011 05:16 PM

That's not a bad idea, since these ratings are created by my excel sheet and i have no emotional input i could use the rated price but i have no confidence in the section that creates the price so i might convert the strike rate in to the price and kelly stake to that.

Shaun

10th April 2011 07:22 PM

Code:


Cranbourne		Race	6
5. Old Guard		$3.35
1. Reassemble		$3.57
Narrogin		Race	8
1. Lie In Wait		$3.54
7. Movie World		$4.38
Port Lincoln		Race	4
2. Out For Lunch	$2.50 2.75
5. Hightom		$5.65
Port Lincoln		Race	5
2. Roll On Bai		$3.06
4. Dieselfuel		$4.27 3.69
Port Lincoln		Race	8
7. Yarterbery		$2.49
10. Bracken Blue	$6.68
Sunshine Coast		Race	3
1. Ima Joker		$3.45
4. Belletrist		$4.75
Wangaratta		Race	6
6. Nice And Neat	$2.64
8. Private Jeune	$6.39 15.93
Wangaratta		Race	7
17. Lordoftheparrots	$2.68
5. Becqu Adoree		$7.14

Result 3/8
SR 37.5%
Outlay 16
Return 22.37
Profit 6.37

Shaun

11th April 2011 09:54 AM

Code:


Ararat			Race	3
3. Mister Farinelli	$1.89
8. Sigidas		$6.93
Armidale		Race	7
1. Prussian Secret	$2.13
3. Starlist		$6.98
Armidale		Race	8
11. Usain Prince	$3.66
4. Lohan		$3.74

Shaun

11th April 2011 07:47 PM

Ended up with a 2 unit bet today for a loss

Shaun

12th April 2011 10:21 AM

Code:


Echuca			Race	6
9. Tequila High		$2.03
4. Distillery		$7.29
Townsville		Race	2
4. Foursreal		$3.23
2. Carvelon		$5.26
Townsville		Race	4
3. Matiya's Pride	$2.61
1. Elegant Roi		$6.25
Townsville		Race	6
2. Guru			$3.52
5. Apache Pup		$5.02

Shaun

13th April 2011 11:40 AM

Code:


Echuca			Race	6
9. Tequila High		$2.03
4. Distillery		$7.29
Townsville		Race	2
4. Foursreal		$3.23
2. Carvelon		$5.26
Townsville		Race	4
3. Matiya's Pride	$2.61
1. Elegant Roi		$6.25
Townsville		Race	6
2. Guru			$3.52
5. Apache Pup		$5.02 $4.82

Result 1/4
SR 25%
Outlay 8
Return 4.82
Loss $3.18

Shaun

13th April 2011 11:41 AM

Code:


Balaklava		Race	5
1. Success Dostta	$2.43
11. Goldstinger		$7.30
Balaklava		Race	7
12. Conduction		$2.65
5. She's Good As Gold	$6.18
Canterbury		Race	1
1. Merge		$2.09
7. Jade Tiger		$7.32
Sandown-Lakeside	Race	6
15. Eternal Sunshine	$1.83
10. Count The Diamonds	$8.91
Sandown-Lakeside	Race	7
5. Princess Narine	$3.12
4. Miss Bindi		$3.67
Sandown-Lakeside	Race	8
10. Mr Make Believe	$1.98
9. Akihito		$7.00

Shaun

13th April 2011 04:26 PM

Code:


Balaklava		Race	5
1. Success Dostta	$2.43 $5.72
11. Goldstinger		$7.30
Balaklava		Race	7
12. Conduction		$2.65 $4.48
5. She's Good As Gold	$6.18
Canterbury		Race	1
1. Merge		$2.09
7. Jade Tiger		$7.32
Sandown-Lakeside	Race	6
15. Eternal Sunshine	$1.83
10. Count The Diamonds	$8.91
Sandown-Lakeside	Race	7
5. Princess Narine	$3.12
4. Miss Bindi		$3.67 $3.13
Sandown-Lakeside	Race	8
10. Mr Make Believe	$1.98
9. Akihito		$7.00

Result 3/6
SR 50%
Outlay 12
Return 13.33
Profit $1.33

max	13th April 2011 04:43 PM

Can anyone else suggest a way to use these selections?

jimbob

13th April 2011 05:23 PM

how is all this going?

Shaun

14th April 2011 01:14 PM

I have just been dutching the 2 selections, if there is a big gap on prices i will just split my stake.

Code:


Ballarat		Race	5
4. Prussian Storm	$3.03
7. Kadena Lane		$5.87
Hawkesbury		Race	6
1. Rogano		$4.61
6. Battle Ready		$4.78
Launceston		Race	8
5. Geejayhaitch		$4.23
1. Borugino		$5.12

Job123

14th April 2011 08:14 PM

form factors

Can you tell me on what these are worked by a computer programe or what ?

Shaun

14th April 2011 10:08 PM

Yes the ratings are just a set of figures i use for each form factor they are basic, in the past i have had some good luck with these as long as form holds up.

Shaun

14th April 2011 10:09 PM

Code:


Ballarat		Race	5
4. Prussian Storm	$3.03 $2.44
7. Kadena Lane		$5.87
Hawkesbury		Race	6
1. Rogano		$4.61 $1.02
6. Battle Ready		$4.78
Launceston		Race	8
5. Geejayhaitch		$4.23
1. Borugino		$5.12

Result 2/3
SR 66.6%
Outlay 6
Return 3.46
Loss 2.54

Shaun

15th April 2011 11:13 AM

Code:


Canberra		Race	6
6. Roccozar		$3.82
2. Beyond Expectation	$4.48
Geelong Syntheti	Race	6
1. Freshwater Journey	$2.50
3. Mild Mannered	$6.21

max	15th April 2011 03:51 PM

So when you dutch them, do you use them to make a profit on just that 1 race or to cover all races selected?

Shaun

15th April 2011 05:35 PM

Not a lot of luck last few days.

Code:


Canberra		Race	6
6. Roccozar		$3.82 $2.75
2. Beyond Expectation	$4.48
Geelong Syntheti	Race	6
1. Freshwater Journey	$2.50
3. Mild Mannered	$6.21

Result 1/2
SR 50.0%
Outlay 4
Return 2.75
Loss 1.25

Shaun

16th April 2011 09:42 AM

Code:


Doomben			Race	6
1. Azzaland		$1.82
6. Craiglea Falcon	$9.97
Doomben			Race	7
2. Celtic Dancer	$3.33
5. River Lad		$5.38
Morphettville		Race	5
3. Condelago		$4.28
7. Excluded		$4.68
Morphettville		Race	6
2. Pinwheel		$2.38
9. Valentine Miss	$8.05
Morphettville		Race	7
4. Nakaaya		$3.71
1. Lady Lynette		$4.89
Randwick		Race	1
4. Satirical Boy	$2.36
2. Exceed And Exalt	$4.04
Randwick		Race	4
2. Sea Lord		$2.70
10. Lucha Libre		$5.55
Randwick		Race	5
10. New Day Rising	$4.28
11. Our Billy Blue	$5.84
Randwick		Race	6
1. Shamrocker		$3.42
2. Brazilian Pulse	$4.35
Randwick		Race	7
1. More Joyous		$3.24
13. Pureness		$6.02
Randwick		Race	8
13. Thankgodyou'rehere	$4.95
5. Avenue		$5.08

Shaun

16th April 2011 04:26 PM

What a frustrating day, dutching these i made a large loss but at level stakes just above break even.

Code:



Doomben			Race	6
1. Azzaland		$1.82 $5.34
6. Craiglea Falcon	$9.97
Doomben			Race	7
2. Celtic Dancer	$3.33
5. River Lad		$5.38
Morphettville		Race	5
3. Condelago		$4.28
7. Excluded		$4.68
Morphettville		Race	6
2. Pinwheel		$2.38
9. Valentine Miss	$8.05
Morphettville		Race	7
4. Nakaaya		$3.71
1. Lady Lynette		$4.89
Randwick		Race	1
4. Satirical Boy	$2.36
2. Exceed And Exalt	$4.04
Randwick		Race	4
2. Sea Lord		$2.70
10. Lucha Libre		$5.55 $16.80
Randwick		Race	5
10. New Day Rising	$4.28
11. Our Billy Blue	$5.84
Randwick		Race	6
1. Shamrocker		$3.42
2. Brazilian Pulse	$4.35
Randwick		Race	7
1. More Joyous		$3.24
13. Pureness		$6.02
Randwick		Race	8
13. Thankgodyou'rehere	$4.95
5. Avenue		$5.08

Result 2/11
SR 18.18%
Outlay 22
Return 22.14
Profit 0.14

Shaun

17th April 2011 10:51 AM

Code:


Bordertown		Race	5
6. Little Adam		$4.15
7. Back Tracks		$4.54
Cranbourne		Race	6
13. Torrefy		$2.94
4. Tully Dreamer	$6.72
Hamilton		Race	7
11. Annie's A Gem	$4.56
6. Our Aristocrat	$4.70
Pinjarra		Race	8
3. Speccio		$3.59
14. Wolfe Dreams	$4.06
Sunshine Coast		Race	7
9. Craiglea Blondie	$3.08
7. Irishkiwi		$4.99
Wagga			Race	4
1. Happy Finish		$3.82
4. Tarrabandra		$4.17
Wagga			Race	6
1. Universal Pack	$4.65
11. Rocky Cod		$5.33

Shaun

17th April 2011 02:51 PM

The way things have gone so far a double protest by both my horses will get dismissed.

Gerry

17th April 2011 04:06 PM

Strike rate & staking....

Shaun, hope you don't mind me commenting on your thread, but it is meant to be constructive criticism, and I hope you take it that way.

A horse's strike rate is the number of times he wins as against the number of times he races, expressed as a percentage, so if a horse wins 8 times from 24 starts his strike rate is 33.3%.

A punter's strike rate is no different, except that his strike rate is the number of times he wins compared to the number of bets he has. In your case, according to your posts you (would) have had 18 winners from 98 bets for a (gross) return of $89.73 which translates to;

Strike Rate of 18.36%
Average price of winners $4.99

So lets say on 100 bets, your situation would be....

Outlay $100
Return 19 (should be 18, but I'm being generous) x $4.99 = $94.81 for a loss of $5.19 or a little over 5%. (Mind you, most mug punters would be overjoyed if they only lost 5%.)

What you have to do then is either increase your strike rate (per bet!) or get longer priced winners. Easier said than done, but if you continue to delude yourself that your strike rate is twice what it is in reality, you're kidding yourself.

Also, what is your understanding of Kelly Staking? Mine is that if you're not making a profit at level stakes, the Kelly can't help you, but what it does do if you are showing a profit on level stakes is calculate what percentage of your bank you should bet to maximise profits.

Anyone else care to comment?

Gerry

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