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Stable Runners
I have long seen the benefits of following runners but some of the draw backs are when to start and stop following, what horse should i follow and having the bank to follow them.
The bank is interesting because some would think it is the same as day to day punting but this is not the case because if you choose to follow only a few horses you could become bored with the lack of action. On the other hand following to many horses could dry up your bank waiting for the wins. I am going to start a stable of runners adding new runners when they come along, i have a set of rules for picking these runners to try and avoid long outs, i will also use a black book service and post when they are due to run again after selection, i have created a mini data base to hold the info and will be staking these runners for 10 starts to a price of 3/1 that means if at any time they win and pay better than $4 i will profit. Most of the selections will be backed from a spell until they win then will be dropped. |
Sounds good Shaun. I am keen to see how these go as I think runners are good to follow, especially for a set and forget punter like me who likes to set the bets in the morning and see how they went at the end of the day.
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Below is the format i will be listing the runners for the stable, as i said i will be Backing for 10 starts and staking to a $4 price this involves 27 units to start 10 or until a win.
There are a few runners to start but i will slow up as we move along. Stable Code:
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what staking plan are you using?
So each horse is staked separately? |
You have Rhythm of Dance twice
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Unless it is ************ Pharlap i don't think it will run in both races so it will be scratched from one.
That info is sent via a black book service so i posted what they sent me. Yes each horse is independent of the others. The staking as i mentioned in the other post is betting to a price of $4 so we will follow each runner until it wins or reaches 10 starts placing a stake each run to return losses plus a profit if the horse pays $4 or more, here is the full stakes of the series. 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 7 total 27 Units |
Thanks Shaun
Will be following keenly. |
I am going to revise the staking after today as i think following for 10 starts is far to much, the way i see it most horses show form by the 5th or 6th run from a spell and if we have this as a cut off then the stakes are not to high and can be recovered by other winning selections at a higher price.
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This is the new staking i will use.
1.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 6.0 This reduces the price needed to between $3 and $4 also reduces the total to 19 units over 7 races |
Winners
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These 3 are now removed from the stable |
Nice work Shaun. Good start.
19 points return of 9 races on the day. |
Stable
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You will notice a couple races has 2 runners this is ok. Runners Code:
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No winners today but this is our current open stable
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Shaun
Why are the losers dropped? I thought you were keeping them in your stable for 7 races? |
yeh why is that
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Nope once they have won they have done the job i dropped the winners not losers, the way i look at it is there are a lot of horses out there that hardly win a race and there are others that win on a regular basis, horses are creatures of habit and will often win at the same time of year or after particular number of races, that's what i am after.
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Shaun. What we are saying is that the latest list is waaaay shorter than the list a few days before and there were no winners to be removed from it. So the list should be the same and if not, just a little longer with any more horses you wanted to add to it.
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In the first list i forgot to remove a couple of winners, i also had runners for Gosford that was called off, now i could have just left them in the list and waited for them to run next but i chose to remove them.
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Okay. no worries.
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Why did you remove them, you obviously put them in for a reason? |
In future i will list new runners as i find them but will not add them to the stable list until after the days races to avoid confusion.
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Still not too bad so far:
According to TAB: Code:
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You have to think of this long term like stocks or buying a racehorse with out the purchase cost and other fees.
When we add a runner to the stable it is like buying the stock, we don't have a result until one of three things happen. 1) Runner wins paying more than $3 this would result in a profit. 2) Runner wins returns less than what is need for a profit. 3) Runner has 7 starts since being added to stable or is sent for a spell resulting in a loss. Overall we need to be in front but i will not calculate this on a daily basis but more looking at the number of open trades compared to the number of winning and losing trades. This is why i would not like to see say 80 open trades and maybe 15 winning and 5 losing trades as this would put a big strain on the overall bank. Right now each new runner added to the stable needs 19 units of the bank allocated to it so right now i have room for about 50 open trades, i don't think i will need the full units allocated for each runner but this is the way i have it set up right now. |
Figures i have right now.
outlay 11 Units Return 21.02 Units Profit 10.02 Units POT 91.09% |
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Hi Shaun You listed this selection as one of your stable bets, I can't see when or where it was added to your stable list. Thanks, 217 |
I will explain my process, i look the night before or on the day at the races, if a runner meets the criteria i have set i will list it as i have done, if it is scratched then it won't get added to the stable until i see it racing again.
If it does run and wins then this is a winning bet and only gets added to my results not the stable, if it losses then we add to stable as one to follow for it's next 6 starts or until it wins then it is dropped from the stable. If any one wants to follow these you can just follow the horses i list that are due to race next as i include the needed stake to make a profit if the runner pays around $3 in any of it's next 7 starts. I will start to list the whole stable each Sunday night so you can see exactly who i am following. |
Thanks Shaun for the explanation.
Listing the whole stable will be great, that way any who are following the selections can add the loosers to it as they happen and remove any that are winners and check it against you list. 217 |
Well all i have to say is we missed a collect on RUE MAPLE that was going to win from a long way out until the monkey on the other horse lost control and smashed ours.
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yep, looked very unlucky |
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Current Stable
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Lots of scratchings today with only 4 running
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April 27
PLAYFUL MISS CANTERBURY R6 No.7 (1100m) 1 Unit |
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