Don Scott Favourites
 

This is a system I have been following daily since 20th March and it is showing a S/R >32% and POT%>70% - I believe the latter will drop as the system enters new grounds but still should show an overall healthy profit.

RULES

1. Only consider Victorian and NSW meetings on Good or Dead tracks
2. Don Scott Favourite between $2.00 and $3.60 inclusive
3. No Don Scott equal favourites
4. No city meetings
5. No "Open" Maiden races, restricted Maiden races OK
6. Races with 8 to 13 runners only
7. Races >= 1200m only

The only other proviso I use is the contender's SP must be <=14.00 but this rule may not suit everyone unless you have the time to monitor the changing prices.

Today's contenders are:-

Bendigo R3 Zaeem
Bendigo R6 Keep Control
Bendigo R7 Redinsky

Good luck to anyone who jumps aboard the roller coaster ride!

Thanks for that.
Will monitor it for awhile.

Cheers
darky.

they all ran a place and betting each way you won 33% POT.

cheers

I should have included the Place S/R is about 64% showing a POT% of approximately 20% over 93 bets since 20th March.

Dividends are based on best of NSW and Vic totes.

Obviously there is still a long way to go but the signs are good!

Two potential contenders today at Cranbourne depending on SP rule.

R4#9 Tequila Queen
R7#1 Road To Roam

No winners from the 2 selections at Cranbourne.

There is one contender at Ballarat (depending on SP).

R4#12 Fleeting Embrace

Is it too early for any survivors to put on their safety vests and move to rescue boats?

I have trialed your system with my data.
my results showed about -2% On T/0 using tatts dividends.

If you want to give it a real pump along I would suggest the following:
1. Win% rank 1-3
2. Career starts <=10
3. All tracks in Australia

Using the above and making a SP guess this is what you get for today

Ballarat R 4 #12 0x072 Fleeting Embrace
Wyong R9 #11 5x372 Kentucky Belle
York R1 #5 5x349 Double Swirl

cheers
aussie

Hi Aussielongboat,

Thanks for your reply.

Did you only consider Good and Dead Tracks as you have listed Wyong which is a Heavy track?

As I said in my original rules I have only looked at NSW and VIC meetings so how did the other States qualifiers go as I am achieving >70% POT currently.

What %POT and S/R did you achieve using your new rules?

If we continue to inspire others to look at the rules and modify them maybe we can get the pot of gold!

I used all surfaces and all races and I didnt filter out the other states.
i will have to reload the data to get the surfaces and the race class accurate.
that will take some time.

the main thing i noticed was that the SP filter was very important.

cheers

Ballarat R 4 #12 0x072 Fleeting Embrace......unplcd
Wyong R9 #11 5x372 Kentucky Belle.......scr
York R1 #5 5x349 Double Swirl 1st 2.90/1.50

Try using a 1:4 ratio for each way bets.

What happened today no bets ? or has try or Aussie given up posting the tips Try Try I think it is to early to give up on it .

I have found the Percentage place rankings more accurate & profitable to use

rather than the Win percentage ranking.

I forgot to mention that API ranking is more profitable, than the Win or Place

rankings, including Maiden races, which is surprising.

I based this research on the Top 5 rankings for each of the 3 categories.

Job123,

There was one selection yesterday which ran 3rd and paid $2.20.

Today there are only 2 possible selections

Seymour R2#10 Initial Response
Newcastler R6#8 Siegel

Initial Response did the right thing for us yesterday winning at $3.50/$1.60.

Only 2 possible contenders today at Mudgee

R5#2 Cugat Magic
R7#1 Sutton Princess

Cugat Magic ran 3rd yesterday paying $2.50 place, the other runner ran unplaced.

Today there are 3 possible selections at Qurindi

R2#1 Northern Mark
R4#9 Shrewd Princess
R5#7 Greek

Good luck to anyone still onboard!

I made a mistake in my previous post with Quirindi R5#7 Greek not being a selection as there were only 7 runners which was unfortunate as it was a winner$4.30/$2.40!

The other 2 selection both placed $1.40 and $3.10

Try Try I AM confused what would happen to a midweek metro meeting or saturday meeting with these rules ? and say it was a cup races at geelong on a wednesday the class with that would be stronger than a sat meet . So if that happens would the geelong meeting be a bet if its on a wednesday ?

Hi Job123,

As per the original rules you do not bet on City meetings. A Country Cup is acceptable provided it passes the other rules i.e. distance, price and number of starters rules.

There are no selections today as both meetings are worse than Dead tracks.

Again due to wet tracks there are no selections for today

2 possible selections at Wagga Wagga today (Dead Track)are:-

R4#6 Dancing Doll
R6#2 Hendricus

A winner ($2.80/$1.40) and a second (-/$2.50) from the 2 selections today at Wagga Wagga.

4 potential selections today

Bendigo R6#7 Dixie Doll
Wagga Wagga R1#5 Magic Shag
Wagga Wagga R2#1 Shimmering Heights
Wagga Wagga R5#3 Southern Shimmer

Its amazing how many of the Top Don Scott selections run a place at very juicy prices.

Hi Bhagwan,

Prior to today's selections there have been 106 selections for 67 placings (S/R 63.2%) for a profit of $22.04 (based on $1 investment).

There have been 21 which have paid >=$2.00, with the largest place dividend of $4.70.

POT% currently (for the place) is 20.8%

Will it continue?

Today's results were:-

Bendigo R6#7 Dixie Doll 2nd -/$2.40
Wagga Wagga R1#5 Magic Shag 2nd -/$2.50
Wagga Wagga R2#1 Shimmering Heights 3rd -/$1.70
Wagga Wagga R5#3 Southern Shimmer Won $3.70/$1.50

Well it certainly has today! Congrats.

two states
 

Try Try would it be possible to give a break down of sydney and melbourne profit figures ?

Hi Job123,

There is very little between the 2 States

NSW

54 bets
18 winners
Win Bank $44.10
Win POT% 81.7%
Place Bank $17.00
Place POT% 31.5 %

VIC

56 bets
18 winners
Win Bank $31.20
Win POT% 55.7%
Place Bank $9.14
Place POT% 16.3%

2 possible selections today

Newcastle R5#5 Capital Raising
Wangaratta R6#6 Kong Kristian

Capital Raising won $5.20/$1.70

Going great guns Try. especially for the place. lets hope it holds up!

Thanks Partypooper.

There are 5 possible selections today.

Geelong R6#1 Circumference
Geelong R8#3 Absolute King
Gunnedah R3#1 Double Your Money
Sale R3#10 Tizona
Sale R4#3 Optimal

The good run ends--- but in the past has there been a run of outs like this before ? if the odds are high a run of outs is not a worry but if ds toprate fav is mostly the fav it is a worry . Try Try can you say if there is reason to worry ?

Like all selection methods it will establish an average return after it has enough data.
The problem is you never know how much is enough data - most of the time.

e.g.
is this a temporary setback OR establishment of a long term trend.

I have seen approaches like this win for at say 12-15% POT for 3 years and then just head south like they never existed.

cheers

aussie

Yesterday's results were a disgrace!

Geelong R6#1 Circumference Unpl
Geelong R8#3 Absolute King Unpl
Gunnedah R3#1 Double Your Money 3rd -/$1.40
Sale R3#10 Tizona Unpl
Sale R4#3 Optimal Unpl

There are 7 possible selections today

Dubbo R4#5 Panov
Dubbo R5#5 Gold Sultan
Echuca R4#2 El Toro
Echuca R5#9 Rezonated
Echuca R6#4 Muktashef
Echuca R9#7 Filouka
Echuca R10#4 The Night's Hot

No need to panic yet with yesterday's results, let's hope we are back on deck today!

PANIC NOW REPEAT PANIC NOW !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yes Job123 , Head for the Hills.

The Punting world is going to end as we know it.

I am typing this from under my bed which is where all the rest of you should be right now.

Jokes aside.

Every method has a thing called runs of outs , we can reasonable predict how long that run will be once we have a stronger understanding of its average SR.
e.g. 20% SR , we can expect at some stage a run of 36 outs in a row.
The expected runs of outs , only apply to that day, because the next day is the start of a new cycle, that's why its not a good idea to carry
progressional bets over to the next day.

Less experienced punters think that as soon as there is one not so good day , they think that's the end of everything as we know it.

That's why stop/ losses are used .

I have seen this many times in the past using the Neurals, but its average percentage SR (20% for top selection) does not change, year to year.

I have seen very expensive rating services do the same thing.

But if one feels strongly enough about the Don Scott selections have indeed turned to putty , start Laying them to fall over and watch what happens to your bank account.

Try and enjoy the Daylight .

I'm going back under my bed now.

Jeez, Bhags, I hope you've got a lot of room under your bed then. Big screen TV, pizzas and an Esky would be kinda cool too. :)

But you're correct, all methods have their 'down time' and it is this very 'down time' that causes most punters to ditch their current successful method after hitting one or two potholes and leap on to the next, new successful idea, unsuccessfully.

I learned long ago that indecision will not take the bickies and success is measured by your own volition.