An observation
 

2 weeks ago I ran for 7 days a live test on Unitab, 15 seconds before race start on the top 8 favourites (min 8 starters), mainly to see where our selections lay. As a by-product of this test I noticed that during this period the top 8 favourites produced over 95% of the winners.

To me, the obvious from this was the potential to lay those that were NOT in the top 8 favourites.

Today I did a test on this, with a 100% strike rate. However, the prices of those to be bet was VERY high!

When you are betting to a liability, the payout is the same irrespective of the price if failure strikes, however it is the return you get when successful which may be a problem for a viable system.

Anyway I throw this out there as an observation as there is very little supporting data on my part, but I thought it was still interesting and worthy of a post.

For interest, today it was an $84.70 return on a $50 bet liability (but with 100% strike rate) so not sure how this would stack up long term.

Food for thought only! .. good punting! .. fred

Fred
Just looked up my data breakdown. Adjusted to >=8 runners. 38317 races.
Fav 1 11585 wins
2 7206
3 5277
4 3979
5 2968
6 2352
7 1774
8 1230
9 787
10 512
11 312
12 179
13 85
14 43
15 17
16 10
19 1
from 9th fav up 1946 wins or 5% 1 win over 16th fav.
Beton

Thanks Beton - great feedback. I will re visit this when time permits and will let you know how I go.

Fred

Hi 4legs.
Hers a way to drasticly reduce the liability on those really high priced horses.

Lay bet all those roughies & at the same time have the 2nd Fav layed to break even if it should win.

If the 2nd Fav should also fall over , you will clean up.

Thanks Bhagwan - it is an interesting angle. It does need something like that to make it viable. I will re-visit it shortly and will let you know how I go. Fred

In another forum there is a participant who has below his signature:

"most winners come from the first seven in betting two minutes before they jump".

Don't know how true it is; but along the same lines as your observation.

Of course, how to profit from these observations is the question!!

Being new the racing game I thought it was an amazing discovery, and I was so surprised; and even more surprised when Beton posted his results!

So I would accept the statement ("most winners come from the first seven in betting two minutes before they jump") as being true - and it is nice to continue and get these confirmations.

But you are correct, how to profit from this is the question!

Even though they came from the first 7 if you backed the first 7 you would lose, but it is a good point to start from, maybe look at the first 7 and only back those above $7

In an 8 horse race 100% of the winners are in the first 8 favorites.
I pulled the results for 8 runners.
4334 races
Fav 1 1500 wins 34.6%
Fav 2 970 22.38%
Fav 3 654 15%
Fav 4 481 11.1%
Fav 5 304 7%
Fav 6 220 5%
Fav 7 132 3%
Fav 8 73 1.68%

Which probably only proves that in 98% of all races there is at least 1 horse in a race that has no possible chance of winning.
Regards Beton

Lol

Further on this
7 horse races 3024 races (7%)
Fav 1 .. 1090...36%
Fav 2 .. 682 ...22.5%
Fav 3 .. 484 ...16%
Fav 4 .. 351 ...11.6%
Fav 5 .. 214 ...7%
Fav 6 .. 138 ...4.56%
Fav 7 .. 65 ...2.1%
Again the last fav only has a meagre chance of winning

6 horses 1719 races (3.94%)
Fav 1 .. 678...39.44%
Fav 2 .. 384 ...22.33%
Fav 3 .. 285 ...14.54%
Fav 4 .. 197 ...11.46%
Fav 5 .. 124 ...7%
Fav 6 .. 51 ...2.96%
Note 20 of fav 6 wins were when the Fav was =<$2

5 horse races 631 races (1.44%)
Fav 1 .. 273...43.26%
Fav 2 .. 174 ...27.57%
Fav 3 .. 94 ...14.89%
Fav 4 .. 55 ...8.71%
Fav 5 .. 35 ...5.5%

Again saying that the favorites chances of winning improves with smaller fields whereas the the outsider still wallows.

9 horses 9th fav 57 wins for 5428 races
10 horses 10th fav 50 wins for 6026 races
11 horses 11th fav 45 wins for 5969 races
12 horses 12th fav 37 wins for 6276 races
13 horses 13th fav 31 wins for 3933 races
14 horses 14th fav 23 wins for 3997 races
15 horses 15th fav 8 wins for 1068 races
16 horses 16th fav 7 wins for 1091 races
>16 horses in 195 races only 1 winner 19th fav
In 8 plus runners the rank outsider has from 1.68% chance of winning down to Buckley's

This is becoming very interesting. Thanks for those very informative posts Beton. Hopefully I can get back on to this over the coming weekend. I will keep you informed.

Fred

Sick of writing so briefly
9 runners first 8 win 99%
10 runners first 8 win 97.38%
11 runners first 8 win 95.8%
12 runners first 8 win 93.4%
13 runners first 8 win 91.2%
14 runners first 8 win 90%
15 runners first 8 win 88%
16 runners first 8 win 85.5%
>16 runners first 8 win 78% 43 wins in 195 races all except 1 from the next 8 runners. Odd. larger fields must throw up some doosies.
I wanted to do this breakdown for a while.

4legs, if you come up with a system backing the first 7, 8, 9 whatever, in the market, you can get on with me.

I agree with you there Mark. My interest was in a possible lay situation however the prices of the ones outside the top favourites are so high I am not sure if that would be feasible either, but Bhagwan made a suggestion in relation to that. At this stage I have spent so little time on it that all you could call it is an observation - but I have found the responses very interesting, and will spend a little more time on it when time permits.

Fred

Hi 4Legs.
Try this approach, it has shown to work very well.

RULES
.One race per venue.
Start at the first race of the day & work through to a qualifying race.

.Target the first race you can find with 9+ runners. (Important)

.Must be $90.00 or less.
If not , move to next race.

.Target 1 horse per venue.
10 venues = 10 selections.
This usually makes ones SR stronger, rather than chasing every race that moves, that's how punters get bit when Lay betting.

Try not to force a bet if there are no qualifiers for that race, that's where mistakes are made.


Lay Bet Method.
Lay bet 1.00 per 200.00 bank. (.5% of Bank)
This is allowable by Betfair because its Liability is $30+

e.g. 6 races = if 6 successes = 3% increase on bank.
This could equate to 21%+ profit on bank per week.
That's good money.

I believe, one will be very successful, Cherry picking this way.

If you cant get your Lay price , maybe try your luck setting it for in running.

Give it a dry run on past results to see if you can make it fall over , before using real money.

Thanks Bhagwan. It will be an interesting one to do a dry run on using past results. Hopefully I will start this weekend and will keep you informed.

I think I understood it all however, one question on your lay bet:

"Lay bet 1.00 per 200.00 bank. (.5% of Bank)"

Am I correct in assuming that should be $10 per $200 bank?

Thanks. Fred

So which horse do you select?

Target the first race you can find with 9+ runners. (Important)

.Must be $90.00 or less.
If not , move to next race.

Seems to jump a step there, or am I missing something completely?

Hi Thorns;

I read it based on the theme of the thread; for me it would have been the rank outsider of the field when they were under $90.

On the weekend I hopefully will have time to have a look at it and will post an update.

If this assumption is incorrect I am sure Bhagwan will set us straight.

Fred

Makes sense,
Would need to be pretty calm and clloected to lay some of those nags at the odds that some would be!

Thanks 4legs.

Fred
some things that i have noticed in looking at the favorite breakdowns are as follows. 3rd,4th,5th and 6th favorite s/rs are quite constant 14% 10% 7.5% & 5% plus or minus 1%. This is constant in field size track conditions etc. The second fav has a strike rate of 20% plus or minus 2%. It mirrors the first fav in increasing when the field size drops and decreasing with more runners.
Similarly when the track surface improves there is a higher strike rate in both the fav and the second fav. But still within that plus or minus 2%. The fav is about 32% plus or minus 4%. As more runners present the 1st and 2nd fav drop off whereas the other runners strike rates still stay constant.

THE ONLY FACTOR THAT CHANGES THE STRIKE RATES OF ALL HORSES IN ANY SIGNIFICANT MANNER IS PRICE. The shorter the fav is - the higher his strike rate (exceeding 80%) The shorter the second fav's price is the higher it's strike rate (exceeding 40%) Where both the fav =<$2 and 2nd fav are =<$3 they have the market, the kudos and the glory. When the fav price exceeds $3 then its strike rate and that of the second fav deminishes and the the strike of the 3-4-5 &6 fav come to their constant and increases.

In looking at the 3rd fav in six. a number of short favs fell over. These were maiden races. Hence I would be working this info into any laying longshot system.
Beton

Thanks Beton for another very relevant and informative post. If this observation was to become viable in the long term you would need to work some other items into it. The main problem I see with this strategy is the price of the ones you are laying, but I will do some work on this over the weekend and I will keep you informed.

However, irrespective or how this strategy goes, the information you have provided will prove to be invaluable in many future laying strategies, so once again thanks - your efforts in extracting and providing this information I am sure will be greatly appreciated by not only me, but by many others on this forum.

Fred

My analysis proved to be very quick. I think I can safely say this system will not work - or if it does the returns would be very, very low. The risk/return is not there as even if you were successful for 29 days, on the 30th day in the blink of an eye you have lost all your profits for the month.

After a month of watching Betfair when time permitted and with these results last night I now realise my mindset for Lay betting was totally incorrect - I simply saw it as the opposite to "win" betting. In a 2 team situation maybe this is correct, but even then it would be good to have "INSURANCE", and I think that word is the key.

On reflection, this has been said (probably many times) on this forum, however I did not have the correct mindset so I glossed over it.

So my new way of thinking is to forget SELECTIONS and concentrate on SITUATIONS which arise on Betfair - the ones where you can take a position and then insure that position, ideally for say a break even for a win and profit when it loses. Or at least a reduced loss if it wins when all does not line up.

Will this be easy? NO I do not think so.

Will it be Possible? I am not sure but I think it is as other posts on this forum also point to similar methods of operating - and the authors certainly seem to know what they are about.

Can I outline these situations? No, not at this stage - I would still need to do a fair bit of work in relation to this; but some of the comments made by others on this forum will be a good place to start.

I also think the stats provided in this thread may assist in identifying a suitable position.

I also realise there are many ways to skin a cat, and I am sure there are many other very successful lay methods out there - some even operating on this forum at the time of this post.

Fred

Good discussion so far. This is the premise behind my 3,4,5 system. Basically backing the next most likely if the odds stack up and ignoring 1st and 2nd fav. Plus the price is better on those

Thanks Max - I have been following your system and I think you have something going there.

I certainly found this thread very informative with some great contributions and I personally think the information in the thread would be beneficial, irrespective which way you go.

Fred