Hello there! I have been reading (with great interest) all the postings on this forum, and am searching for any ideas on staking plans for dutching - there don't seem to be any. As you know the strike rate is quite high when dutching, but a loss does hurt. Has anyone crunched any numbers on this? If so, I would welcome your input...

I prefer the Dutch betting and the method I use is as follows.
5 runners is the absolute max and I prefer 4,3 or 2. If you can't get the race to 5 or less then leave the race alone.
Win betting only.
Back your main selection to win the most eg 5 times more than the others and then the others bets are covering bets that I like to get a 20/25% profit on turnover for the race on.
Its hard to do sometimes if all your selections are short in the market.
I tried to add a large place bet in as a cover once on the main selection (this was to cover no winners and the main selection running 2nd or 3rd) but 2/3 losses in a row had the bank struggling.
Thats the way I try to work it but then I still go out to work each week.
Good Luck from one Gym to another JIm

Try this ,

Increase your next bet by 15%, after a loss , win loose or draw , until you are in front , no matter how small the profit .

Dont make the mistake of increasing by 20% , because it will blow you out of the water.

I am making the assumption that your outlay equals the profit return , in other words equal to even money odds, for this staking plan to work.

hi all, i have reactivated this thread with the hope that there may be some alternative views on staking plans suitable for dutching.

Bhagwan, do you find that 15% is enough to acheive breakeven or profit? seems a bit low at even money returns.

Heres another one ,if one wants to ride with the wild poneys.

Increase your prvious bet by multiplying it by 1.5
e.g. Your take out figure or outlay figure , might be say 10 units on the 1st bet , it may look something like this on a looseing run.
10,15,23,35,53,80,120,180,270 ext.
When one winner gets up , repeat the bet , keep repeating the bet after winning bets, until we have broke even or in front.
If a looser presents itself ,
increase bet by multiplying by 1.5 (50% increase)

What this is relying on is one`s ability to strike 2 or more winners in a row in the sequence of bets to claw back losses.

What I find frustrating with Dutch betting , is how The Favs get up when you dont want them to.
But I like this concept of betting ,if you can pick them.


Cheers.

thanks for that, as it happens i have been looking at trialing a 1.5 increase - as you imply its very risky unless one can maintain a solid strike rate, which i have been managing to do.

as to the fav's getting up, i avoid those races with a short fav & aim for a even money return from whichever of my nags that get up.

it is certainly a different way to bet & can become quite a chore trying to obtain the necessary prices.

You are right about the prices Stugots.With TAB betting it can all become a bit of a lottery.You need a few minutes prior to the race to actually place your bets and we all know how much betting fluctuates in the last few minutes.

There is really no way around it,just pop your $$$ on and hope for the best.I find that it's a 50/50 situation,sometimes the fluctuations go my way sometimes not.

To Dutch bet successfully its necessary to have a good commercial program.I have mentioned previously that the free programs are ok to fool around with,but when it's time to get serious you need good technology on your side.They are not expensive.Take a look at the bottom of your Xmas stocking,you may have overlooked it,or mum might be waiting for the post Xmas sales.

Do you sell these things Rikki ??? I bought mine prior to joining this forum otherwise I would have asked earlier.With regard to staking plans its quite possible to treat your whole dutch bet as a single bet and use the Retirement Staking Plan.Having said that, I never place a bet that returns under 100% on outlay.Try making your divisor "3" with a run of six consecutive losses and a starting bank of $1000 your bets would look like this,,$10,,,$13,,,$18,,,$23,,,,$28,,,$34. then your divisor would progressively increase and your bets would stabilize at around $34.By this stage you will have either committed suicide or re-thought your selection strategy.Preferably the latter.

Someone will come up with a program that incorporates a good staking plan with a dutch betting program and they will make $$$$...Maybe sooner than later,,,, I hear............good luck,, good punting..

hmm, food for thought syllabus23, i use the retirement plan with my single selections but never seriously considered it with dutching becuase of the low divisor (if one follows the rules to the letter) - but i will run my results using a divisor of 6 & see how it goes.

I have said it before and will say it again...there is not maney program out there that can't be duplicated for free with excel you just have to learn excel and even if you are not the best with excel there are a couple of forums that will give you any answer you need.....i am currently working on an excel file that will gather information from the free cyberhorse form pages....and as far as dutching....you could write an excel file that will do exactly what you want

it can be done,correctly.

& even incorrectly puntz :)

setting up a spreadsheet to do all the calcs is straightforward enough as its all fairly simple maths, but if someone isnt comfortable with that then why not pay?, gets the job done no?

Firstly, to management, I am surely not going to be posting much due to the fact your stupid updated forum does not allow me to have the firewall active nor can i use MY choice of web browser to log in and stay logged in, so to hell with your advertising **** and this cookie syndrome. There is no compromise, I am the "customer" !!

Secondly, if anyonwe wants to discuss this topic any further without compromising their choice of intertnet browsing by lowering security standards, ( mine are high) then leave an email address to be contacted, and be prepared to to send me you selections ( 3 per race), and I will prove what a correctly set up hedge can do.
There is no way it will ever be posted here. But, yes it can be done correctly, and extremely accurately.

The spreadheet method is only the start, as i mentioned before, to punt and to hedge properly, forget spreadsheets, the only use a spreadsheet has is prototype stuff for programmers to view YOUR proof of the calculation, the rest gets programmed.

Hence my previous posts on a all out project for a free downloadable program with plug-ins that universaly fit from the various software vendors and/or backyarders.
This topic keeps going around and around in circles, kind of get's dizzy at times, specialy at this time of the year !

well puntz i manage to 'hedge' properly & i use a spreadsheet to assist me to do so - the entire process is as automated as i can possibly make it & having put a fair amount of thought into it all i cannot see how the use of any software package could enable me to do the job any better (unless of course it can pick the winners for me :) ).

i recall now your previous discusions on plugins etc & of course like many here would be more than interested to test any product that evolves.

btw the above is not a critisism, probably all i am trying to say is that where there is a will there is a way.

Stugs. no not all taken as critiscm.
All I am saying is, to hedge and to make a system cycle with a goal to eliminate as many mouse cliks as possible, then yes, one has to think it thru.
Some use spreadhseets and stop there, for me where the spreadsheet ended the basic calculations, it went to program. The potential a program can do is vast at the very least.
Problem is, a punter has to learn to program and the programer has to learn to punt.
Once it meets in the middle, well, guess that's why we still here debating the issue.
I KNOW exactly what I want a program to do as a punter.
A programmer/s knows it to !
Solution: ??

Why hello puntz,

I'll provide responses beneath each of your paragraphs.

There are no posting requirements and as such there are no penalties for not posting. It is entirely everyone's own perogative as to whether or not they post. If you feel that you are not going to post then so be it.

As for the issues you are having with your firewall, advertising **** and your choice of internet browsing with high security, let me start with your firewall.

Your firewall should have no bearing as to your ability to access the forums as they use nothing beyond the standard HTTP protocol over port 80. Your firewall could have additional features or personal configuration which may potentially inhibit your ability to access the forums but I don't see why it would be setup in such a way. I personally run a hardware based firewall and a software firewall. Both have complex configurations that do not affect my ability to use the forums, nor am I required to disable them. What firewall are you using?

With regards to your comment about advertising **** I'm a little stumped. Currently there are no more than 2 ads per page, with one being a banner image and the other a brief text ad. The advertising does not require cookies and should not be causing you any trouble.

What seems to be the trouble that you are experiencing with our advertising?

Cookies are a fact of life and will be for a long time to come. They can store various bits of information that do not necessarily need to be considered a security risk. What web browser do you use?

If you're security conscious you wouldn't be using IE and would be better off with something like Netscape or Firefox with the latter probably being the best choice.

I personally use Firefox but test every page with the 4 main browsers; IE, Netscape, Opera and Firefox.

In each of those cases you can manually setup a cookie override setting to allow cookies from forums.ozmium.com.au. If you are using IE you will find that the forums work perfectly fine with the Medium High security setting and no cookie override settings.

It is disappointing that you didn't submit an email via the contact us link and resorted to this post instead.

I am willing to liase with you to work through these concerns. Please contact me at support@ozmium.com.au.


Kindest Regards,

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year stugots,

What seems to be the trouble?

Many people express their opinions within these forums. I will certainly agree that some posts get moderated but that occurs when they breach the Terms of Use. The Terms of Use are there to guide users and to protect OZmium.

We do run a business and like everyone else work to make sure that our members get the best. Obviously it is not in our best interest to have posts promoting our competition. If you have negative comments and feedback we are more than happy to take it on board and see what we can do to enhance the experience for everyone. These comments are best brought to our attention via the Contact Us link at the bottom of the page.

We do sometimes post requesting feedback, comments and suggestions but at the same time need to try and keep things positive and not just a whinging match because someone doesn't like the range of smilies or avatars that we have available.

I'm happy to discuss this further and can be contacted via the Contact Us link at the bottom of the page or via email at support@ozmium.com.au.


Kindest Regards,

Rikki, email sent.


Stugs,
The programs on offer for sale or lease can be used either way like your "as automated as can be" spreadsheets,for tools to further develop where the spreadsheet ends it's limited functions, or, like many and myself, to do what it's capable within it's range. Whether it be simple maths, or send a bet.

The program that takes over from the spreadsheet as mentioned in that previous post is not a package. It's more or less a solution for the many and varied punters requirements to punt, be it spreadhseet or programmed ( it may cater for both).
But the punter, who wants to punt using programs/software needs to undederstand now, they have to learn some programming (not to create programs) to code superior programs to utilze their functions.
The biggest advantage is, the punters own claculations stay secret.

Testing is not required to see if the program "wins".The win is in the punter who configures the program/tool to work the calculations
In other words,tedious and repetitive tasks are taken care of according to how the user of the program directs it to do so.
Whats there to test then, the punters calculations, or the programs ability to crunch the numbers/calculations?

In answer to jimdegriz original question,on staking plans for hedge,I have answered it already, "it can be done,correctly".

Stugs, so we back to square 1.
How the calculation and staking is done is not the issue if it's done by spreadsheet or other advanced methods, correctly or incorrectly.
The question is, is there a staking plan for hedge ?
In addition to my first answer, "correctly" is not about the mathematics of a hedge calculation, it's about applying that calculation after it's been calculated. The strategy of those sums, or,"how you play the game"
This is where punters might win or break, and no computer/program/programmer,the whole dam human race for that matter can ever say they have a "better" method to win.
Programs give an edge to the strategy.

Sorry puntz but it never arrived and I cannot find anything in the mail logs on the server.


Kindest Regards,

rik
resent, email typo error

[QUOTE=puntz]Firstly, to management, There is no compromise, I am the "customer" !!

You got a hide, puntz. Your the customer are you? Well how about telling us how much youve paid to access this forum? As a "customer" have you paid the business running this show anything?

in your dutch betting are you guys just backing your top 5 or so or are you assigning price to selections and backing the overs?
i use to dutch bet and had good success with it.
i would take all horses that i assigned price to if they were overs i would back them provided i could make %70 profit and i would take quinella banking the biggest under or fav with my selections.
and are you guys talking about backing each horse to get back same amount?
and if so i have s/sheet that does that if anyone needs it.

Marcus,
I neither have the time nor the vibe to answer your comment.
But excuse me for being the one to remind those that are not aware of internet happenings if they go unchecked for the overzealous advertising guru's that prey on internet insecurities,your where abouts, your habits, and probably your personal details if given half a chance.
But if I got paid for knowledge of my internet whereabouts, well that's different.But ya don't get paid much by the advertisers for sending bets, it seems.

I am the "customer" is my choice of reference to be able to choose what comes and goes upon my internet connection and I should not have to pay for anit-virus,firewalls,advertising spy codes blockers and all the rest of it.
I would rather buy more tool type software or more $$ per hour towards my programers to do what they do towards my racing.


As far as paying for things on this forum, yes I have bought some products, software infact, and further more, it really is nuyabiziness.
Other forms of "payment" is shear entertainment.
I think I am funny !! or insane and paranoid, but I don't change my user name ! If i did, I may call myslef "verbalfingerprint" !
either way, I can larf, can you ?
Most of my posts are just that if it ain't about racing ,a larf in a monty python type of scenario.

My racing is serious though, it's money and time invested, others say it's gambling.
Start a new thread if ya want to take the issue further.

I have replied to Rikki, he will see where I am coming from, and possibly reply by email to.

On a serious note,there does not seem to be much on the original question of this thread, "staking plan for dutch betting".
I believe there ain't one,having the formula is one thing, applying the sum of the formula is another.

Hey puntz,

There seems to be some sort of issue as I still have not received any emails from you at support@ozmium.com.au


Kindest Regards,

Rikki, you should now have receieved it twice as a forwarded email from the original email address it came from.

however that email server has had some issues in the past, so one re-sent email would have come from the ISP email address and another secure email server. Both original messages would have come with the original email sent with an attatchment. Meaning, I sent it to myself to see if it works, it did, so perhaps there are issues elsewhere ?

Hi all,

Looking at topic this i dont see it going anywhere so ill put my little bit in.

Hows this look ?

If one would target say the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th fav, leaving out the 1st favourite if it is paying less than 4 on the tab, dutch these four and create your own odds therfore allowing for last minute fluctuations, ie

5 min before jump.
2nd fav showing 6, make its odds 5,
3rd fav showing 7, make its odds 5,
4th fav showing 8, make its odds 6,
5th fav showing 9, make its odds 7.

Now:
outlay 100 units,

2nd fav 28 units
3rd fav 28 units
4th fav 23 units
5th fav 20 units

so if they come in and beat the fav,

2nd fav 168 units
3rd fav 196 units
4th fav 184 units
5th fav 180 units

Am i playing with fire or would a decent staking plan make it feasable, ive looked at a fair few races and often (look at qtab 100 pointers) the 1st fav goes under, so if we can either leave it out or wait till there is a race that the first fav is around 5, well i am open to your laughs and any serious comments.

Hope you all had a good new year and christmas.

Cheers
Dingoboy.

Dingo Boy, maybe someone can come up with some stats about how often the 2 3 4 or 5the favourite would salute if the fave was $4 or less. I f it was $3 or less I would leave the race but if it was $4 or more I would still leave the favourite out as their win percentages would be significantly reduced I think.

Gday Dr.

Exactly my thoughts, it would be interesting if the percentage of the 2nd, third, forth and fifth favs would make it viable to leave out the first, im sure someone has the stats, ive played with this and some races the return is in the area of 200%, BUT NOT EVERY RACE.

Cheers
Dingo

Dingo,
I have a program that does exactly what you ask.

The project started a while back and been refining it.
There are major issues with the markets if one thinks they can "trick" it by eliminating favorites, next 3, 4 or whatever.
The question on price reduction makes no difference either. It will, and can pay well under the prices one may choose to quote.

If, let's say you had a module selection system, meaning, Module A does selections as you mention, like I have, the module will be thrown away.
So Module B selection system would be re-created, and tested.

Module A is still on test using your similar method
20050105 18:26:53 --> BalanceA : 5580.20

today/now, the same parameters:
20050106 21:34:53 --> BalanceA : 282.10

This is leaving out the fav, next 3, 4, it don't matter.
It loses.

I can run a test, just let me know what parameters you want, and let it runa few days.
Starting balance would be best at 7500.00
There is no database to back test, it's set, and let run.

dingoboy,

A few years ago I ran a system on paper for a full year.

The system was the fav had to be 5/2 or better the second fav 7/2 or better, the third fav 9/2 or better and the fourth fav 11/2 or better.

If this scenario came up then the bet would be the same amount on the 3rd 4th and 5th fav.

The bet would be 1% of the bank on each horse.

Starting with a $10,000 bank after 1 year the bank was $500,000.

When the bet got to $500 per horse it stayed at that figure, the theory being that one had to get set and if the bet kept increasing it would be too hard.

In the one year there was many many losing days.

Only 4 losing weeks out of 52, but never a losing month.

This looked like the holy grail, but like most systems was worked out on the results the next day.

The main problem being, was as I said there was many many losing days,
so basically one could not miss one days racing, or in fact one race that complied with the rules, as sure as hell that would be the day when when you got the last 3 losing days back plus a good profit, or the race you missed is when the 10/1 salutes.

I still look at it now and again and it still works, but as I said nearly impossible to implement.

The other thing was that there were many days with no bet.

Cheers

By the way:
20050106 21:53:55 --> BalanceA : -42.90
============================


case scenario:
20050106 21:52:33 --> Market (20050106TG09)
T WIN
2. 2.80 out fav !
3. 4.60 in ?
1. 5.90 in ?
6. 7.40 in ?
8. 9.60
7. 10.30
5. 10.90
4. 72.10

updated just before start of race !
20050106 21:53:55 --> Market (20050106TG09)
T WIN
3 2.40
2 3.80
1 7.50
6 8.20
8 11.10
7 12.20
5 15.90
4 73.20
results:
2 $3.60
3 $2.20 !! for place
1 $1.30

This is just one race, but these scenarios
I am sure most are familiar with.

This idea has had some success.

Target races with 12 + runners.
TAB fav has to be paying $3.80+
Back the 3rd,4th,5th,6th & maybe 7th Fav , prices permitting.

These type of races can produce some big payers.

Hi!
In my database there are app.140 000 horses with a starting price of <= $4.00 (Vic TAB).
Out these were 38 000 winners. Not a lot really!
Cheers!

Bahgwan,
if there are any other restrictions you would like to add, post away, but it's been reset at those you mention, selecting 3rd,4th,5th and 6th fav.
4 selections and it has to find value at the same time.
So it will scan every race from today.

"new balance" 7500.

By about Sunday it would show best what's happening.

staking plan for dutch betting
 

Well,

i thought that would be the case, scarry stuff !

So if one as Bahgwan sujests takes the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and maybe 7th, obviously the "strike rate" would be not as high leaving out the two favourites but the pay would be higher and due to the capabilities of throwing in another nag that would probabally give us a reasonable strike rate (everything works out in the wash).

Obviously with first and second favs gone, our hit rate would be less and then we would expect a good % return which should cover the longer runs of outs,

Bahgwan,........i know youll have it,come on !............what sort of staking plan for this one ? I recon with the high return odds, we could expect:

Bank 1000, x 3
5% initial bet= 50 units
next bet=75 units
next bet=113 units
next bet=175 units etc.

Kenchar,
Same same,...i dont use this idea for my normal day to day stuff, but i always find myself coming back and looking at it also, there is just something in the back of my mind that says "give it just a little go boy, go on, just try it", i had a couple of 100 unit bets at the local last weekend(which i never do) and took the old trusty thongs and my nokia 9210 with my "partially finnished excel dutch" programme installed, two bets and out the door with a fist full of fifties, but i think the gods were looking at me favourablly that day so i left it at that and had take away courtousy of nsw tab.

I still recon it would work and im sure many, many have thought this before me and are now probabally in the poor home or have discovered how to read the form and how to pick horses for the win !

Puntz,

Sorry mate, im not really up to your standards here, im not really sure what you mean but is it feasable to say you can punch in my "thoughts" into like a hypothetical bet machine and see how it goes "live" ? hence "balance A -42.9? i take it that you have punched it in and it is showing a loss, woldnt surprise me.
Like i said, im pretty new to all of this and i dont have computers and info that do what you blokes can do, but it would be interesting to see how what Bahgwan and Kenchar sujest would go, maybe target 3,4,5,6 and 7 leaving out the 1st and 2nd with some sort of progressive staking plan, maybe the retirement with a divisor of about:? with a really big bank.

I think it was Partypooper sugested once to combine all the individual bets for that day and make them as one figure, then re calculate the next days outlay as a bulk figure then spread that over your chosen races,

Anyway, its the thought that counts !

Cheers all
Dingo

Dingo,

I have a scanner, it scans the markets and it can be set to look for parameters, then print those races if those parameters are found.
More than one set of parameters can be forward tested at the same time.

Basicaly it does what one would calculate using a calculator.
There is a every 5 minutes sometimes.

So what is here is not a database of past events, it is going to happen.
Selecting in this method is one of many the scanner can do.

But you asked what will happen if you omit the fav and bet on the next 3,4 or whatever, and this scanner can be set to do just that.
Like I mentioned earlier, hedging/dutch betting is easy.
All is on test, but if you want to add real $$, be my guest.
Are you confident to invest 7500 ?
I use the figure of 7500 cos when it losses, it needs about that amount to chase losses.
I no longer use this favourite method myself, but if we must test it for what it's worth, save you the trouble at least if ya new here.

Hi Puntz,

You guys amaze me,
I bet that scanner jobby of yours has got its own remote control too ! sounds like its "the bees knees"

Nah, dont waste your time testing this one out, i was just curious as to what things would look like, i DO trust what i read and im sure you fellas have looked at just about everything, i will stick to my place bets i think, just throwing things into the air to see what comes down.

Just out of curiosity though, what was your starting figure for the bank of 7500, id expect a pretty high run of outs hey.

Dingo

Well, I have set it up and post results after the last race Sunday or there abouts for the record at least.

Thanks Puntz,
hope you didnt waste too much time, i look forward to your results

Dingo

hey guys
1) i think it is bad punting to lay 1st and 2nd fav i reckon you lay them based on price not just because it,s fav.
2) i also reckon you need to set target for each day and walk away after reached.
3) i also think you should do same with loses set amount you are prepared to lose on that day and if you reach that walk away.even staking a % of bank and recalculating after each lose.
and can someone run these rules thru
1) fav is odds on
2)2nd fav is $3.50 or better
3)3rd fav is $4.50 or better.
cheers

Heres another idea
If the combined odds of the 2 Favs is less than the 3rd fav ,we will assume its going to be a 2 horse war.

You will note that I said odds not prices ,so one must add up the 2 prices then deduct 2 so as to reflect the odds , now compare this to the odds of the 3rd fav by taking its price minus one.
If the odds of the 2 favs works out less than the 3rd fav ,it becomes a bettable race.
E.g. $3.00 ,3.90, 6.00 Favs in order. this would be a bettable race

What will also assume is that they are going to burn one another out when challenging one another.

Therefore there will be some real value to be had on the 3rd,4th,5th,6th favs.
Back them all when we see this situation.

Some of the divs can be incredable.

Take all the divs at 1 min till jump time & place ones bets accordingly.

Dutch Bet Staking plan
Would be to increase your bet by 50% each time , repeat the bet after a winner if still not in front.
Go for a max of 7 outs ,then start again.
We need to get 2 winning races in a row to clear the decks.

Cheers.