Sportsman Zip Form Top 6
 

I have been playing around with this idea lately and the results so far look promising. Using the Zip form out of the Sportsman, I use the top 6 raters in boxed Trifecta's, Quinella's & F4's (on paper only)
I flexi bet the selections for a % due to the large outlay required.
The rules are simple.

1. Minimum of 8 starters
2. Sat & Wed only
3. If more than1 qualifies as the 6th rater, then pick the highest win/place %

So far I have looked at 169 races (small sample I know) with the following results.
Uni Tab prices.
90 Quinella smiles biggest paying $201.10
62 Trifecta smiles biggest Paying $1816.30
38 F4's biggest paying $12518.00

Of course the above figures are just that figures, but with some more selective filters added it may pan out well over time.

I will post up the selections for this Wed & Sat and you can see if they perform :)

Hi Ricardo, What would be the outlay compared to the return for all of these boxed exotics. Eg, 169 boxed trifectas when boxing 6 horses would be an outlay of $20,280. Would the 62 trifectas be more or less than this amount. Just use full $1 divvies even though you can put just the minimum amount on as a flexi bet, its all relevant.

I am curious as I am going to start doing a very similar thing but with my own "speed ratings" which I have spent several weeks developing. I tend to think that this might be the way to go and not just win bets all the time. I'm only looking at sydney on saturdays at this point, might think about some wednesdays or even venture down to melbourne racing, see how time permits.

I want to also look at say 3x7x7, things like that. Last saturday showed some very good promise, for eg and I dont expect this to happen often, a F4 paid $19,445 and the placegetters were ranked 2, 4, 6 & 7 in my ratings. The Tri paid $1271 on unitab(nswtab paid over $1600 and the other tab paid over 2 grand)

Hi Paul,
Yep the total cost of those 169 trifectas would have been $20,280 for a $1 and the return would have been $14968.00 for a loss of $5312.00.
It's all raw data at the moment as those races are from 5 different states, including all distances and surfaces.

You obviously wouldn't bet on every one of those races. Like yourself, I am in the process of narrowing down the qualifying races and how I will bet them.
From the small sample I have recorded, I have noticed the ratings do better @ Melbourne & Adelaide especially over 1200m & 1400m.
It's all work in progress :)

Ricardo48,

boxing six selections in a field of 8 seems somewhat expensive for relatively small returns even though most trifectas will be struck.

Have you got records per field size? And also for quinellas because the TAB take-out is less than the other types of exotic betting?

And also have you got records to see how Zipform's top raters fared because if they have an unsatisfactory Win record maybe standout trifectas as Pauls123 suggests might prove worthwhile.

michaelg,

Yes your are right boxing 6 out of 8 is not smart wagering, but like I said I have only looked at it on paper so far. I agree stand out trifectas could be the better play. I will get back to you with the info on Quinellas, field sizes & Zipform's top raters tomorrow.

Cheers.

I feel the Trifecta approach would work strongest on fields of 11-12 runners.

I read this in a book on Trifecta betting.

michaelg,

Going back through my data, I have just realised I have missed a whole days results so my the figures I posted above are not accurate. I will have to go over them all again after work tonight
I will get back to you with info on your other questions, time is a bit tight at the moment :(
Here are today's selections though. I have decided to try standout Trifectas 3x6x6 $30 for a half & only boxing the quinella's $15 boxed.

Trifecta Outlay $780.00
Quinella Outlay $390.00

Canterbury
Race 2 - 1 6 9 7 10 14
Race 3 - 1 2 4 3 5 9
Race 4 - 2 3 6 8 12 7
Race 5 - 1 6 10 9 2 8
Race 6 - 3 6 2 12 4 5
Race 7 - 8 1 4 9 11 14

Doomben
Race 1 - 11 4 10 8 1 9
Race 2 - 7 12 2 3 8 9
Race 3 - 8 10 3 5 6 9
Race 4 - 5 9 1 3 2 4
Race 5 - 2 13 6 8 10 4
Race 6 - 4 7 5 15 8 3
Race 7 - 11 1 7 2 3 4
Race 8 - 1 7 8 3 9 2

Geelong
Race 3 - 5 7 4 6 1 9
Race 5 - 2 4 5 8 9 1
Race 6 - 2 4 9 10 6 1
Race 7 - 5 3 4 9 1 7
Race 8 - 3 2 6 5 9 10

Balaklava
Race 2 - 1 5 2 4 6 8
Race 3 - 7 3 2 4 1 6
Race 4 - 5 7 1 4 10 2
Race 5 - 4 5 1 6 2 3
Race 6 - 3 7 1 2 4 8
Race 7 - 1 5 2 4 3 6
Race 8 - 3 13 1 6 2 8

Hi Ricardo, I think I am going to settle on a 4x7x7(x7)combination. Had a bit of luck at Canterbury today, Betting on races 1, 4, 5, 6, 7. Races 2 and 3 were full of unraced horses. Struck two trifectas and F4's with this combination, the last my ratings ranking the placegetters 4, 6, 5, 3. Trifecta paid $1565 and F4 paid $11,534. (very small % of course though).

Just missed out in the 6th race, rating the winner on top paying $18.70 and being knocked out by the second horse only.

Paul

and the last race only had 9 starters also,..!

HI Pauls123 in your post you say--- the last my ratings ranking the placegetters 4, 6, 5, 3. Trifecta paid $1565 and F4 paid $11,534. these are not the zip form top 6 right ? you say my ratings any chance of posting them here ?

Hi Job, for what its worth, this is my "summary" sheet. This is the third spreadsheet of what I do for each race, kind of summarises the others. This is the last race at Canterbury today. It is certainly not a 5 minute task to get to this.

Paul

Results.
Trifecta Outlay $780.00 Return $518.95 Loss $261.05
Quinella Outlay $390.00 Return $461.10 profit $ 71.10

Canterbury
Race 2 - 1 6 9 7 10 14 Result - 9 10 7 1 Quin $25.20 Trif $124.60
Race 3 - 1 2 4 3 5 9 Result -2 5 1 13 Quin $12.50 Trif $22.65
Race 4 - 2 3 6 8 12 7 Result - 12 7 6 10 Quin $20.60
Race 5 - 1 6 10 9 2 8 Result - 2 1 8 9 Quin $50.60
Race 6 - 3 6 2 12 4 5 Result - 5 16 12 6 Loss
Race 7 - 8 1 4 9 11 14 Result - 14 13 16 10 Loss

Doomben
Race 1 - 11 4 10 8 1 9 Result - 4 2 13 11 Loss
Race 2 - 7 12 2 3 8 9 Result - 2 7 3 8 Quin $5.60 Trif $14.55
Race 3 - 8 10 3 5 6 9 Result - 8 2 5 4 Loss
Race 4 - 5 9 1 3 2 4 Result - 6 1 4 5 Loss
Race 5 - 2 13 6 8 10 4 Result - 2 3 4 11 Loss
Race 6 - 4 7 5 15 8 3 Result - 16 7 13 8 Loss
Race 7 - 11 1 7 2 3 4 Result - 11 9 4 2 Loss
Race 8 - 1 7 8 3 9 2 Result - 3 2 8 4 Quin $37.60

Geelong
Race 3 - 5 7 4 6 1 9 Result - 4 1 7 Quin $33.50 Trif $106.80
Race 5 - 2 4 5 8 9 1 Result - 3 1 4 8 Loss
Race 6 - 2 4 9 10 6 1 Result - 1 4 5 7 Quin $8.40
Race 7 - 5 3 4 9 1 7 Result - Quin $31.30
Race 8 - 3 2 6 5 9 10 Result - 3 2 6 10 Quin $17.10 Trif $123.25

Balaklava
Race 2 - 1 5 2 4 6 8 Result - 4 5 1 7 Quin $21.40
Race 3 - 7 3 2 4 1 6 Result - 3 4 2 6 Quin $10.00 Trif $13.95
Race 4 - 5 7 1 4 10 2 Result - 2 5 4 1 Quin $50.70
Race 5 - 4 5 1 6 2 3 Result - 5 4 3 7 Quin $7.40 Trif $25.70
Race 6 - 3 7 1 2 4 8 Result - 7 4 3 5 Quin $10.60 Trif $22.15
Race 7 - 1 5 2 4 3 6 Result - 5 4 2 1 Quin $23.20 Trif $65.30
Race 8 - 3 13 1 6 2 8 Result - 12 9 2 5 Loss

Hi Pauls 123 a simple yes or no if you can (will ) or can(will ) not post the tips here is all I want to know thanks .

Is there something in common with the races that fail to deliver? Some sort of filter you can add to try to reduce the number of failed races.

Max,

I am in the process of finding a few filters to not only reduce the losses, but also reduce the number of races to wager on.
I will post up some ideas when something shows promise :)

OK, to answer Michaelg's question about field sizes, top raters & quinella success, here is what I have recorded over the last 220 races.
Field sizes have been between 8-20, I haven't kept detailed stats though, but the average would be 9-14 runners.
The top rater seems to have a poor strike rate only winning 35 from 220.
With quinellas there have been 104 returns from 220.

So to keep it simple.
Field sizes 9-14 runners (average)
Top rater wins 35/220 (poor)
Quinellas 104/220 not bad, but would still run at a loss if boxing the top 6 costing $15.

The above is based on covering all races I have recorded which would be foolish to say the least.
Now I have to work out what distance & tracks to concentrate on, plus what type of wagering I should focus on.

With Trifectas I like the idea of Concentrating on 10 Horse races after scratchings.

Any horse between $6.50 - $11 put in to win X FX F for 2nd and 3rd.

Trained by 1 of the top 5 trainers and ridden by 1 of the top 5 jockeys for the win portion.

Cheers
darky

ps.In the early 90,s I was getting 1st class info from "George Masters"(unfortunately he fell off the perch) but any decent rating service like Zipformwill do as long as todays track conditions are what they,ve rated for (A big trap if your not aware of it)

Sorry Darky. Can you explain this further:
"Any horse between $6.50 - $11 put in to win X FX F for 2nd and 3rd."

Think he means

All horses $6.50 - $11 / field / field /.

gottcha!

Yes thats it Max.
The logic being that in 10 horse races the chances of a collect is higher
since your going XfXf.Less outlay too.
The Win part ensures a decent size collect.

Small collects on trifectas come about when a short priced horse wins (usually under $3.50).

Also I would be more inclined to look for a 10 horse race (s) from Race 5 onwards because more short priced horses win the 1 - 4 races.

Cheers
darky