Greyhounds with Mo
 

WARRAGUL Race 8

4 HOODED KEATS $4.9
2 TIMELY OMEN $5
1 ZIEBELL $5.5
3 PURE INK $6.7
8 PARTO'S SIMBA $12
5 MISS MUM $13
7 BOZZCO $16
6 STONELEIGH $25

4 animals with equal Chances of winning here.
No bet unless $8 is available from these 4.
$4 or $5 on it.

BENDIGO Race 6

1 WILD VIKI $2.8
2 ENEVER $5.9
8 FIRESIDE LITE $6.6
3 LARA'S ROCK $7.4
4 UNO THE DRILL $7.4
7 HEY KOBYBOYN $20

The Winner comes from the top 3 selections.
Again, the animal must be an Overlay or no bet.

BENDIGO Race 7

4 KATSIDIS $3.4
6 BRECKENRIDGE $3.8
7 FIERCE WEETBIX $5.8
2 DELCORN BOY $8
1 ELITE CITY $14
8 AIRBOURNE SPOOKY $25
10 JASON STACKHOUSE $33

Is out of the top 4.

BENDIGO Race 8

7 BAHMAN BALE $4.1
1 CHLOE'S GEM $5.1
6 PARKER BALE $5.6
2 ELITE LOMBO $7
5 SNIPER'S SPECIAL $8.4
3 XMAN $20
8 SUPERMEN LOVER $25
4 CARLANNA LAD $33

From the top 3 selections.

SANDOWN Race 1

2 DARYA BALE $3.5
6 PROVEN MAYHEM $3.7
1 AMAKLER GIRL $4.7
4 SCHEHERAZADE $12
3 HAFREN BALE $16
7 MISS STACKHOUSE $20
8 DR. ROCHELLE $30
5 MRS. FREEZE $66

Only 3 winning Chances here.

Track surface turned
 

Sandown posted a message to say they have turned the track surface over, if like other tracks BGC the races favour the dogs coming from behind.

I don't think it means that Woof43.
I figure that it makes the track a little like a dead track in gallops, where animals feet sink in deeper and is like running in soft sand.
The faster they run, the deeper their feet sink , and the more energy is expended.

So it don't favour backmarkers, it actually penalizes frnt runners, as lond as they are very fast frnt runners , as distinct from default front runners.

The last two races i consider the best value tonight Moee.

Race 10
 

1 5.073 25.331
2 5.086 25.235
3 5.131 25.092
4 5.137 25.656
5 5.170 25.307
6 5.129 25.433
7 5.098 25.343
8 5.183 25.210
The #3 would be very hard to hold out in this event the inside 4 generally like wide on the track, #8 has been a touch unlucky when drawn the #8
I like the 3,2,8,1

Woof43

I haven't checked, but I have a fairly strong feeling that if I backed ALL My Top Selections at Level Stakes on the TAB , I would be making a Profit.

But they all seem to start a lot below My Assessed Price.
I guess thats all my problem now for not keeping records.

Regardless, if it is True, does that mean there must be something wrong with the way I assess My Markets?

Depends if your market is set to 100% or natural odds, you should be changing the tote price to 100% then compare the markets.

Because you do all the dogs 1-8 you could have seen quite easily the bias in your ratings.
A basic method is to convert your odds to a percentage then total the percentages, then compare how many winners you selected.

example if you rate 10 races your top selection was $2.00 in all ten races = .5 times by ten races you'd expect 5 winners.

Well I have posted a helluva lot of Markets on this Forum, so all I need is a day with no racing so I can go over it all.

I do my Markets to 100%.

I've been given a Spreadshhet by Oaksnaf and I will play around with it to do whatI need.
I'll have to sort it by order of selection.
And Order it by percentage Chances of the animals.
Shouldn't be too hard.

How do I convert the TAB Odds into 100%?
Is it just a matter of dividing the Starting Odds Percentage by 115?

divide the 1/into payoff for each dog, get the total should be like 1.1787 etc then divide the that number by the 1/payoff

example dog 1 = tote odds $5.2
1/$5.2 =.1923
then total all the %'s for each dog
say our race totals 1.17872

now divide .1923/1.17872 = .16314
now to get payoff 1/.16314 = $6.12
Natural odds =$6.12

But after that when you start wagering more, you will move to wanting to know the $ amount invested out of the pool on each dog, so you never wager more than the optimum amount.

Sandown Race 1
 

Box Total Natural Odds Moee
1 $5.81 4.7
2 $3.15 3.5
3 $15.00 16
4 $20.21 12
5 $37.43 66
6 $4.60 3.7
7 $15.21 20
8 $12.61 66
$35,383
now you can see the Natural odds the 35k is the combined pool for that race with around 30 sec to race time, 3/4 of the market is generally set at that time.
Not hard to see what dog(s) you should have wagered

Yeah, but then I'ld be betting against the animal I reckon has the best Chance of Winning.
And the thing is the General Public also think My top selection has the best Chance of winning.

Sure messes with the head :(

Moee, you'll find if you did your sums, your 1,2 are profitable might even get your 3rd selection to break even.
But this would be only races that are acceptable, by that i mean convert the tote odds for your top 3 selections if this does not total more .67 do not win bet this race.

convert your rated odds into a percentage , not the Tote odds

I meant to post

Also remember Moee from your records if your 4th ranked dog produced a loss, -40%.
In todays race you have it $5.50, and it's starting $5.60 it looks an overlay, but really over time it still will not make up the losses.

So if I get a sample of 100 Races, and just supposing we accept that it is a representative sample, even though 100 ain't enough in the REAL World, should all my animals , when grouped in Order of MY Favouritism , be showing similar losses if I have done a good job of handicapping?
Or should My top selections be showing a Profit, based on the Odds I calculated, with a progressively worse result as I go down my list?

Or should I not concentrate on Profits and Losses , and just confine myself to the percentage of Winners, as you described in your very first post giving me advice?

you measure your ratings by how many winners, you should have a smooth transition right down to rank 6,7-8 who may blend together.
1=32%, 2=21% 3=15% and so on down to the lowest rank,

I'm with you
Boxing 'em up in Both Exotics, plus some more with the Pink Blonk.