Bagwan's 1st 6 races
 

=> Bagwan. I remember you mentioning in a thread a month or 2 ago about the 3rd fav coming good more often in the 1st 6 races of the day than the rest of the day. I put that fact away for a while and this week I tracked the 1st 6 races each day and came up with some good results.

I checked the 1st 6 favs 1 min before jump for each race and stopped for the day when it won. If it won the 1st race, I kept going until it ran again.

Was there any other filters you suggest applying? Thursday was the only day it did not succeed.

If anyone else has any ideas, they are welcome to drop in as well. And if you would prefer to email me then you can on max stuff 09 @ g mail . com

Bhagwan could you email me at mat at sportofkings dot com dot au as I have a few questions for you if you don't mind.


Cheers,

Mat.

Hi max, Bhagwan let that system out on one of my threads (geez it was hard to find - there's so much good stuff on here). Here it is:

RULES
Have Bot target the 3rd Fav. only for each Horse race.
(No Trot races)

2 secs till jump

1-24 runners.

Target first 6 races of the day only.

Set Bot to stop on 1 win
Set Bot to stop on 6 losers.

What you may find, is the number of times a 3rd Fav gets up in the first 6 bets of the day.
It strikes some surprisingly good prices.

Betting level stakes.
1% of Bank.

Thats right Ocho.

If the first race won , its best to stop for the day & not continue for a possible 2nd win, because it will usually be the only one getting up in the first 6 races.

It has still been performing with almost identical percentage SR as it did when Ocho was testing it.

Ocho would set his Bot to 4-23 runners.

If you want to use a Bot, here is a free one to try.
Google
BetSoftPro.

Thanks Bags. Worked again on Saturday in the 1st race. I kept it going again like I do if the 1st wins and it won again in the 6th. Nice return for the day. If only I had actually put money where my mouth is! So that's 5 returning days out of 6 this week.

With a bot, what would be the best account to hold as I still do not have a betting account yet as everything I have done so far has been on paper?

Have you Bagwan or anyone else found any filters to apply to the 1st 6 races to increase S/R?

The more consistent systems have very few rules.

The more rules that are added , the less likely it will repeat itself down the line.

We try to keep it short & sweet.

You could introduce more filters , but I believe it wont make it any more profitable, it would be more than likely to be less profitable, if extra filters were added.

If you looked at the form of some of those 3rd Favs , you would swear that they had no hope of winning , but win they do.

You will see them beat very short odds-on shots, on a regular basis.
When this happens , their price is usually around the $10.00-11.00 mark, with rotten looking form.

Try finding a level stakes system out there that delivers 50% POT.

I guarantee , that you will be struggling to find one.

If one wishes to increase profits on the original idea of 1% flat stakes ...
Bet 2% of bank level stakes.

This should deliver strong monthly profits to nearly doubling bank in most months, if all goes to plan..

Increase bet once bank has increased by 50% each time.

Reduce bets if we lose 33% of bank.

This is a safety measure, in money management, just in case the wheels fall off.
You may never need it , but its very strong psychological plan to have in place.
I call it the "What if plan"

That way we are always in control of what's happening around us now , not what should happen in the future.
That's where punters shoot themselves in the foot.

Hi Mattio,

Sorry, but can I ask why you wish to email me with questions, that cant be asked on this public forum.

Doesn't that defeat the purpose of having a forum?

Or is it something special ?

=> Bhagwan, when do you believe is the best time before the race to check for the 3rd fav? I have noticed the 3rd changes a lot between 10 mins prior, 5 mins prior and 1 min prior.

Today I watched the lead up to the race on Unitab and in particular the pricing. Here is how it went down:

5mins 9 5 11 1 6
4mins 9 5 6 11 8
1mins 9 5 11 6 4
0mins 9 5 11 6 8
CLOSED 9 5 6 8 11

Result: 11 paying 12.90

2nd race for the day is SEYMOUR2

5mins 2 13 12 11 7
3mins 2 12 10 12 7
1mins 2 13 7 10 12
0mins 2 13 7 12 10
CLOSED 2 13 7 12 10

Result is 12 paying 7.80

Max, so your trying to get the third fav in betting order just before jump time up,..??, is that the game plan. And the winner in that race at Seymour was third fav with 5 mins to go, but was 5th fav with 1 min to go,..?

Interesting.

3rd race was PORTMACQUARIE1

5mins 2 1 3 6 4
3mins 2 1 3 6 5
1mins 2 1 3 5 4
0mins 2 1 3 6 5
CLOSED 2 1 3 4 6

Result was 1 for 4.10

Yes Paul. I seems to vary a lot. I vaguely remember Bhagwan suggesting to check at the 5mins to go mark so I am tracking this to see when is most accurate. 5mins to go does seem good so far today.

4th race for the day SEYMOUR3

5mins 14 9 3 4 2
1mins 14 9 2 4 10
0mins 14 9 10 2 4
CLOSED 14 10 9 2 4

Result 14 for 2.90

Max
I found that the third fav was all over the place. just as you are doing now. I found that because of interest in the method and that it was openly discussed that in the dying moments the third fav would plunge and in fact become the second fav and in numerous occassions it became the fav. This was in spite of being the clear third fav for the entire course of betting. Different betting arenas produced different results. I was using the tote WA Tab as to select the horse that I considered the clear third fav and betting this on betfair. Doing this I got a different and better result than Ocho was getting.
What you must do is aim for consistency. Pick a time and stick with it. This plan works the 4th and 5th fav so it does not really matter which horse you choose so long as you are consistent.
The race club and it's handicapper thinks that they have an equal race. The owner and trainer want a close race but they all think that they have a slight edge. The punters however do not have anything to do the setting up of the race think that they know the winner. Depending how hard they wear their convictions on their sleeves they are right from 82% down to below 20% of the time. The more data they have to compare the horses the better they are at choosing the fav.
These early races are mostly maidens and 2 or 3yr old races. They are only there to entertain the early attendees to the main races of the day. They have virtually no track record at all and the horse that has raced before or placed before is the fav without basis. Any horse can win and does win. First races of a meet has a 36% s/r overall. Two in three races are won by another horse. The limited research that I did puts the third fav at about 25% which is considerably higher than the 15% overall.

DO NOT AT ANY STAGE BE GREEDY. STOP AT THE FIRST WINNER OR YOU WILL BE GIVING THE WINNINGS BACK.

This system is a winner provided that you can get the third fav odds which should average about $6. Or 4th fav at $8 or 5th fav at $10. It will even work on the 2nd fav at $4+ over the first 4 races. The key factor is not the winners that are in the first six races but the number of losers. This method drastically reduces the losers only if you stop on a winner. A winner in the first race pays for the days that there are no winners in six. A winner in the sixth breaks even and all other winners provide some profit. This should be about 25% POT. Better than most systems.

The problem is that too many use the system which destroys the returns. The key is getting the odds. If most of your wins are $4 then it is a loser.

Go to Ocho's thread and you will see that initially he was killing the pig and then was not breaking even. It would be would reading that thread completely, because all you are doing is bringing a good system to everybodies interest again which destroys the odds again.

Beton

Beton

Well said beton. Are you still using that method?

I found the last 10 days or so of the test period was just treading water, wasn't it?

The thread is hard to find now (lol) but here it is:

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_for...6&page=30&pp=10

Ocho
I have been trying to have this settle down a bit. I brought a bot BetBot Pro to do this system, but discovered a problem in it on a lay SP system. It works fine and then erratically bets the same horse multiple times which throws the whole system out. It picked the same horse six times the other day. At $30 liability each one is more than one can bear. So I have stopped all betting until I can clear the problem. Has anyone encountered similar problems?
Beton

Thanks for the update Beton. I have been getting average of $6 on 3rd fav and staking all 6 races to cover the cost and return profit no matter which race wins. Providing 1 race does win of course. Interesting what you say about 4th fav at 8.00 and 5th fav at 10.00 as my other system works on 3,4,5 favs providing their morning odds are 6,8,10.

Beton - Betfair have advised there is a bug in their API for AUS SP - the fix was due for release today. See the Thread .. Hey 4legs. I have no idea if your LAYSP problems are associated with this, but I feel there is a good chance that they are.
Fred

Thanks Fred
is there any recourse thru betfair. All up this has cost >$300 in multiple losing bets without going in real deep.
Beton

I think their small print would more than cover them.

My beef is that if they knew about it, they should have been up front and stated this or withdrew this option. Like you in the blink of an eye I lost not an insignificant amount as well. The mind boggles at the amount probably lost Australia wide, which has been put down to "gremlins".

Fred

Sorry for bringing it back to the forefront guys. I am the sort of person that when I find something that works I let everyone know so they can enjoy the benefits but I can understand that soon after the benefits die off.

Hi Max.
I hope you make good profits from it.

I don't mind you bringing it to the fore.

After all, that's what this forum is about, sharing ideas.

One may have noticed that the 3rd favs that did not win, still had good prices.
How come their price didn't get smashed?

On many of the UK sites , there are pages & pages, headed up with say "My favourite system" but they say nothing about their system , just heaps of tips from everyone, all over the place.
Its a mess.
They don't seem to like sharing anything.

With pages & pages & pages & pages about nothing in particular,
fearful that they may give something away.

I love it where they post...
"I have a system that makes big money every day , but I am not going to share it here."
So why say it?

Actually funny you should say that. I will go back through my testing period and run the numbers for each way bets, 1 and 4 bets and 1 and 9 bets and see how they go.

I was using a staking plan of 2,2,3,3,4,6 for 20 units total per day. I found that 1 unit on each race actually gives a better % return overall. Strange. I guess because there has been 2 loss days in the 6 days I have tested to date and that wipes you out from your profit. I am also tracking 2% of bank. I will keep going with this as I think it should deliver over time. I will try to stop myself from applying filters as you said because a lot of the time the short price fav loses and gives you good returns on 3rd fav.

At this stage I have been looking as CLOSED favourites but really want to concentrate on 5mins prior as that is what I would be doing in the real world.

Is 5mins what you suggest Bhagwan?

5 min sounds as good as anything else.

Which market are you taking the prices from e.g. Betfair . UniTAB, IAS

Unitab as I am unfamiliar with any others.

Hi Bhagwan,

I just wanted your feedback on a couple of things relating to the bot I am buiding as I respect your knowledge in this area.

Regarding the topic at hand, have you noticed a fallover in the UK results for this system the last few nights? I have had 4 straight losing nights, have you been getting the same results?

Cheers,

Mat.

Mat Hi
Was this 4 nights straight that the 3rd fav did not get up at all in the first six races? Or was it 4 nights that a profit was not made. The strike rate for this should be 85% on a daily basis. Maximum run of outs should be 4. The strike rate of the 3rd fav is about 15% which the run of outs is 42. This is negated by the breakup of the run. The system is based on serendipity and if we are prepared to take the serendipity we must also wear the downside. Keep on keeping on. When Ocho was trailling this I was getting a different and better result from him using the tote to select the 3rd fav at 1 minute to go and then backing that horse on Betfair. My opinion is that the tote is the truer measure of public opinion as it reflects how much is bet on that horse compared with the field. Betfair reflects how much the public is prepared to back that horse individually.
Beton

Hi Beton,

Yes last 4 nights in a row it has not found a winner in the first 6 races. Last Wednesday was the first night, it found a winner in race 1, Thursday night it found a winner in race 1, Friday night my laptop crashed so no bets and then Saturday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday nights have all had 6 losers.

It has been frustrating as the Aus races have been performing well but last month (well the last 2 weeks when I started betting the system) the UK races outperformed the Aus races by almost double. Statistically I know it will turn around so I am looking forward to a winning run which will hopefully start tonight.

My betting from last month showed a 72% daily S/R and and individual S/R of 17%, so far this month my daily S/R is 57% (due to the UK results) and individual S/R of 18% which definitely indicates that it could be at the bottom end of the performance scale at the moment.

I have no intention of stopping betting the system and I am happy to ride out the bad times as well as enjoy the good times so no worries there. Can I ask how your results compared overall to what Ocho found?

Cheers,

Mat.

Mat
Sorry I suffer from graphoriaphobia. I don't keep records. I am either winning or not. If I am not winning I work out whether I am doing something wrong and fix it or desert ship. Comparing my results daily to Ocho's I had less wiped days, and in several cases got the winner earlier than him. Having said that most days were similar. The period was before I got a bot which is required to do the system,
Beton

No worries, I used to be like that but now I keep records to get a better handle on what is happening and to see if I can identify areas to improve. I tried to determine if this system would work better on different days of the week but so far there is no indication that this will actually work. The results are purely mathematical so I doubt there will ever be any kind of pattern to it.

Cheers,

Mat.

Hi mattio and beton. If you don't keep stats, how do you know what has and hasn't worked (although I suppose if your balance is going up or down would give you some idea)? But if you're trying several things then you could easily lose track.

IMHO records should be kept so that, if you're like me, you can then remember you were laying the fourth fav twice removed last spring and it didn't work before trying the same thing again this 4th of July. :)

Anyway, the Bhagwan's system for April was good however the last 10 days or so of April the system was just treading water.

I didn't continue the system as I went looking for something else, which I didn't find, and then got warned by BF to only bet the minimum $5 (which I think sucks s%!t). Unfortunately by that stage I didn't have any money left to bet $5 a pop. :(

So it's back to trading for me until I can get enough moolah to try again.

Stats for Bhagwan's system for April 2011

Start Bank $100
Bot Final Total $157.78 (Highest $159.78 on 19/4/11)
Betfair Final Total (after commission) $151.05 (Highest $154.69 on 19/4/11)

29 Days
100 Bets
24 Winners
82.7% Daily S/R
24% Betting S/R
51% POT (for Betfair Total commission deducted)

Finally back on track for the UK races!! Winner in the first race, still leaves me about 2 units behind on the UK races for the month but its all smiles for me right now after the horror run the last 4 nights :)

Ocho
I like you and everybody else am looking for a system that you can set up and forget. Is there such an animal? I know so. There are thousands of bookmakers out there that is testament to that. This 3rd in six is a winner. It needs a bot to make it happen. Otherwise you need to be sitting at the computor all day. Mathematically the system works. I am waiting for Mat's bot to run with the system because I believe it works better on the tote than betfair. Laying the field SP as per Chrome Prince is another winner, this could be improved by laying within a price range. I have been testing a lay system laying the top 3 favs SP to a price range and backing the fav for a target. Mathematically it shows a good return. This showed great promise until the bot started multiple betting on the SP layers. I had 14 different times this occured with the last time laying a winner 6 times. I believe it only stopped laying because it exhausted the funds in that account. Cheesed me off because I thought that buying a bot these things could be more controlable.
With me I spent my life having to do paperwork. Now either the money is coming out or you are pouring money in. I do not want to trade one job for another job. I am aware that there are winning days and losing days, but if the winning days don't outstrip the losers then you have an expensive hobby. If you are breaking even then you only have a hobby. The maths show that given the right method of getting there then there is $500 per 100 races. I just have to sort out the right bot.
Beton

Hi Beton,

The bot is still in development, our plan is to have it ready for beta testing by the middle of July. It will only run in Simulation mode during the testing, we will do live testing ourselves until we are satisfied it is safe to use for others.

I'll definitely let you (and the others who have expressed interest) know when it is ready.

Cheers,

Mat.

Thanks Mat
The month has only just begun. Ocho' s results showed 50% Personnally I think anything over 25% is windfall and take it gracefully. Beton

Hi Mattio,
Seeing that you wish to build your own Bot, you probable aware that they often do updates & when they do this ,it will throw your Bot out , so unless you are linked up to their updates , you will have to re-program it all over again it.

I have found the UK races have the same SR as Aust races.

The UK prices can be excellent.
$9.00 winner 1st race tonight in a 5 horse event.
One does not need many in this price range to recover any short falls.

One should expect the odd run of out , that is to be expected for any percentage SR range , so please make oneself aware of the theoretical run of outs to expect, at some stage ,using the expected percentage SR.

One also has to accept that there will be times where it feels like its treading water, but all level stakes plans go through that , this is normal as well as frustrating , but that's level stakes betting for ya.

I tend to look at the figures on a monthly basis, it feels less frustrating that way.

If one is trying to find a pattern , well there isn't one really.

Different folk will get different selections at times, depending when & where the price are taken, but overall the SR tends to pan out much the same over 100 bets.

If one is targeting Aust & UK I feel its a strong idea to bet 1% of bank on a ratchet basis reset when say 50% profit is made.
I find it less frustrating this way.
You will be able to sleep at night if you have a run of say 25 outs in a row, which can happen, with most systems targeting this price range.

It rarely happens with this plan but it can happen, so be prepared.
I have found that it tends to recover to a new bank high fairly quickly , especially when a result is had in the first two races, so hang in there.

Hi mattio. I'm not sure if I've expressed interest in your TAB bot in the past (I'm sure I would of) but count me in. :)

Bhagwan,

Yes I am aware of all this and it will be taken care of.

Ocho,

I remember you expressed an interest before mate so no problems there.

Beton,

I'll happily take 10% on a set and forget system, anything over that is a bonus.

Cheers,

Mat.

Disappointing result today, bot placed a bet on Awi Acting in Race 2 at Gosford as bet 5 in the sequence but it wasn't matched which resulted in a full loss for me today instead of maybe a small loss or profit......bummer :(