Prepost Market and Deadwood! Logic?
 

As strong as the prepost market is I wonder why horses that don't deserve to be well up in the order are there? Examples like they have had 5 goes at the distance failed each time, the same with track condition etc. What leads the market to include these horses?

Then you have horses that have all going for them and are strong in the market and run second last.

I can see no logic!

Twodogs

The thing is , these horses are not machines or computer programs.

If you have found an animal underserving of being well up in the Market , then you have found a betting opportunity.
If after an event , an animal fails to perform up to expectations, there must have been a reason.
Perhaps Punters missed it, or , more likely , there was an unforseeable situation that occurred.
Sometimes the Steward Report contains some sort of explanation of poor performances.

p.s. please don't hit me :(

Looking at the form of this race can you explain why the winner was favourite?

http://www.tab.com.au/Racing/Inform...0&RaceNumber=07

Why would I hit you Moeee? You have offered advice what more can I ask :)

What I find hard to fathom is the weight of money for what looks an obvious no hoper. 0 from 5 at the distance or 0 from 5 on a heavy and they are in the top 4 of the market but run like an ambulance at the back of the field. As you say someone may have seen something to want to back it but it still needs a fair wack of money to get it into the top of the market.

These are the obvious ones then there are the one's in the market that have nothing left to offer but we don't know it until after the race.

Twodogs

Hi Shaun,

On my data it has had 3 runs 4th up from a spell for 2 wins and a placing, it loves a slow track and Moonee Val (on pacer to boot) maybe they were the main reasons as it had had two runs at the dist for nothing back in 2009, one at group 2 level and lost by 7 lengths and one at RB89 which it lost by 6 lengths. The distance concern would make me feel it should run no better than third say as it ran out of puff.

Twodogs

I had it equal top rated with Mont Fleuri (mainly on class) with Light Vision for third, but Philda had the far superior wet track capability with 10 starts on slow for 4 wins and 3 seconds.

I would have thought it was enough?
Unfortunately for me Light V didn't do a thing!

Cheers

Hi Lomaca,

I would have looked at Light Visions first up record and given it a miss.

Twodogs

Yes now i look at it i can see why it was up there, i re-ran the race via my ratings and for some reason it missed that all together, seams i have some errors i need to fix.

Twodogs,

You will probably find the faves that look like undeserving faves, have in fact a better ROI than the more obvious ones to boot.

I can see where i fall down on this as i rely a lot on the last 2 races, i don't consider as you have said when they start to perform from spells, it's last 2 runs were a bit down.

Your right Raven,

The ones that should be left out ( due to form concerns etc) will be the ones that add value to what ever bet type you have taken.

Twodogs

The winner of race 8 in Adel yesterday Serious Danger.
Dist 3 0 0 0. Dead 5 0 1 0

On face value hard to have but it won and was on the 5th line of betting and paid $7 TFluc and $15.50 best tote! ( The bookies knew something)

Twodogs

I think you have stumbled across one of those urban myths concerning horses that have run well at the distance.

I found , using the GTX program, that horses that performed well at the distance did not perform any better than horses that have never run the distance.

As a matter of fact , the horses that have never run at the distance performed better than those who had won at the distance - weird.

That's over 40,000 races.

Certainly turns doing the form on it's head doesn't it??

Thanks for the data Bhagwan

Twodogs

Bags, is that all distance ranges?
I was led to believe that when a horse was having it's first go at a mile you should leave it alone.
Would love to see some stats on it actually.

That was all distances.

I will leave that up to you to research the different distances,