A Theory ...
 

I have been away for most of the past month,but I have downloaded all the results from Betfair in an to attempt to get a handle on laying.

To my surprise, I noticed the 1st and 2nd favourites made a profit during June (Backing).

I know there is a major flaw in going down that path, as due to the money movement at the end, the favourites will change, and hence you would never be able to achieve the same results.

However, this flaw may also provide an opportunity - and hence my THEORY ...

If a snap shot was taken at say 25 seconds before close and again at say 2 seconds before close, over a period of time we should have 3 groups:

- Those that firm in price
- Those that remain the same
- Those that drift in the market.

My theory is that the ones who firm in that time frame should be candidates for a back and those that drift should be a candidate for a lay.

Tomorrow I aim to write a small routine to capturing this data, so any comments, input, suggestions etc would be appreciated.

I will progressively post the findings through out July.

However, I must admit it all sounds too simple! ... but it is a Theory!

And that will leave you 2 seconds to get your bet on.

You must be hooked up to optic fibre already.

I know Moeee, 2 seconds does sounds ridiculous but I know it works at 0 seconds as I have been placing bets at that time so the 2 seconds gives me lots and lots of room for movement. If you were really brave you could even go for a minus figure and I would be confident of that working as well.

I watch a lot of races and going by the clock on Gruss i have never seen a race start at 0 maybe 5 seconds after is the closest i have seen.

Oh yeah.
I forgot that very few races actually start at the exact start time.
And NEVER early.

If it helps, my database of results from 2000, has 73% of winners actually drift in the market, rather than firm.

That's a bit of a bummer :eek: :rolleyes:

Another Urban myth exposed maybe.

Another question raised about the so called smart money.

Thanks for your findings Vortech.

Are they TAB or Betfair figures?

I have noticed the TAB figures reflect the Blowers that send to dominate.

Yet on Betfair its the opposite.

One will notice that the TAB tends to Mirror Betfair as far as order of favouritism.

Especially after they have jumped.

Can you expand on this because my findings are the opposite.
Which results are you recording, tote, bookie, or other?
How do you define drift or firm?

4legs,

I recall a few years ago someone writing somewhere that if all Betfair faves were layed (as he/she had done) then a loss would be incurred. I can't remember whether the period of time was mentioned. And this was before Betfair S.P. - so the person may have layed them had a higher price that what they started. However, it would be expected this would apply to some faves and the opposite to others.

So I think your theory might have legs (pardon the pun).

I'm sure many of us would be interested in your findings.

Ok - it will log results from today and I will progressively post my findings .. fred

If you lay all Betfair faves at SP, you lose 5%.
If you back all Betfair faves at SP, you lose 5%.

If you want to make money either way backing or laying, do not take SP on one horse, the odds are too spot on.

If you want to back all favourites, lay the rest of the field.
If you want to lay all favourites, back the rest of the field.

Therein lies the edge ;)

Caveat: this applies to favourites only.

Thanks for that Chome - that is very interesting.

Another point you raised also requires thought. When do you consider a horse firming or drifting? As a $3.00 favourite that went to $3.01 could not be considered to have drifted in price.

I was considering a 2% shift either way for it to be considered either as firming or drifting. It would therefore follow if it was + or - 2% it would be considered as steady in the market.

Firming	Initial	Drifting
$ 1.96	$ 2.00	$ 2.04
$ 2.94	$ 3.00	$ 3.06
$ 3.92	$ 4.00	$ 4.08
$ 4.90	$ 5.00	$ 5.10
$ 5.88	$ 6.00	$ 6.12
$ 6.86	$ 7.00	$ 7.14

Anyone any thoughts? Thanks Fred

I would consider a horse firming if it firms at least a point from the opening price and vice versa for drifting.

i.e 11 out to 12, 6 into 5.50, 1.80 out to 1.85, 1.90 into 1.80 etc.

How many "Rolls of the board" in the old.

CP suggested a horse shortening a "point" is a firmer.

I don't think a "point" was a term used in the good old days when something firmed a "quarter" of a point. I think the meanings of a point are blurred comparing times gone by ..... I recall when there was no such thing as 11 / 1 ?? ..... esp at the dogs !!!!!!!!!! Never heard of !!!!!!!!!!!!

Chrome: Thanks ... I will use a Point.

Michaelg: thanks for the encouragement - it should be an interesting exercise.

Vortech: 73% ... Gulp!

Bhagwan: On the tote I have been amazed at the change AFTER the race has closed. However in fariness, Tabcorp (NSW/VIC) state this in their official developers guide. I can get the exact times they quote if your are interested.

.. Fred

My statistics are very basic by taking starting price which normally equate to around 140% of the market. By race start its around 115% to compete with TOTE. Often had much debate over what is a plunge or a market mover when the variables are often so different.

Its all find to follow the leaders until they walk off the cliff.

Over my many years of laying and picking winners etc etc etc, I now only work on around 12 systems which focus on an average of 4 picks per race with a return of 76% winners from the four. Use this system on Quads and you normally get around 25-30%.

The variable I use the most is the Starting Price as its the best.
The next is a good free rating systems. Often different ratings work better in different states so I have a mix.

From a $10 investment on the quad you'll get around $40-$80 payout, but every 3 months a big one will come along and collect $100 - $500.

Of late, with a S/R of 76% I've been putting a $10 bet on any races with 2 or less horses selected. Good returns from Jan 11 but early days.

Any one interested in the rules or selections this weekend let me know.

I think its a little unique, something that you need from the rest.

Vortech
I think that we all would be interested in both the rules and the selections. I thank you for you contributions. Beton

I find using a min of .50 as an indicator as to whether its firming or drifting.

It seems to work stronger than just taking fractional amounts.

Day 1 Update
 

There was very little movement in the price of the favourite between these times. 41 races all selected.
.50 cents movement either way: None
.40 cents movement either way: 1 Drifter - Lost
.30 cents movement either way: 1 firmer - Won $2.35 - 1 Drifters - Lost
.20 cents movement either way: 1 firmer - Won $2.35 - 3 Drifters - Lost

Only 3 favourites changed in this time - all from 2nd Fav to 1st Fav - all 3 lost.

Vortech: I agree with Beton - and I would be interested in the rules and selections as well. Thanks.

Bhagwan: Yes I think this may be the way to go. When I was doing the comparison the % got quite messy. Thanks.

I feel one really sees the big difference in the 2nd-5th Favs range.

So maybe grab the top 5 from anywhere & apply it accordingly .

Example
Take price at say 120 sec then say 20 secs till jump.

This can work on stable markets that are already around the 107% book percentage at the 120 sec mark as in the UK markets.

Thanks Bhagwan. Today I was going 60 & 10 out, but I have taken it out to 120 /10 as you suggested. Also I am recording the full field at those times so I will be able to look at the 2 - 5 favourites.

Two big golfing weekends coming us. Playing both Saturday and Sunday for the next two weekends down at the Gold Coast.

The capture program will however run all weekend, so I will post Friday/Saturday/Sunday results on Monday.

Trust you all have a good weekend on the punt ... Fred

Sunshine Coast Quad:

br5 - 1,2,3
br6 - 1,5,6
br7 - 1,15
br8 - 2,16

29.42% Strike Rate of Quad

Lets see how I go

Vortech
Hello. I am confuseded (actually being in the state of being confused) You state that you take the starting price. Is not the starting price the price at jump once the betting has stopped and been adjusted? And you posted the picks last night. So what market do you begin with? And what are your selection rules so that we can understand what you are eluding to? Other than this thank you for posting the selections Beton

Your starting point can really be anywhere. For Brisbane races, I have the best results from the Sydney Morning Herald Newspaper. (Not to good yesterday)

If you have a database or able to produce a system with about 3-4 horses with around 75% strike rate per race, the chances of getting a winnner in each race from 5-8 (quad) is around 30% strike rate. Like any system with a strike rate of 30% the outs can as I have seen go right through to 14, have a winner and then another 9 outs.

Check out my new post for some others systems

I am going to have a good look at the data as I may have to set some realistic parameters and then start logging again as I am getting horses drifting and firming in the range -$330 - + $430. These may or may not be distorting the figures - I will have to check.

I think I can say however that very little movements occur in the first 2 favourites. See below. These figures are based on the BF min Bet of $5.00 and the data covers 3 days (1/2/3 July) with a factor of .50 to indicate drift or firm.

$0.50	Firm	Drift
1st Favs:	21	8
1st Wins:	5	3
1st Profit:	-$31.40	$ 20.90
Strike Rate:	24%	38%
2nd Favs:	38	23
2nd Wins:	2	3
2nd Profit:	-$127.45	-$22.60
Strike Rate:	5%	13%

Have you thought about comparing the Pre-post newspaper or online priced Fav with the Betfair price movement.

I have seen days where the blowers fall over all day.

Then one will see where half get up to win all day.

So a cut off point is important, if lay betting, say 5 outs on the day , then stop betting for the day.

Thanks Bhagwan - that is a thought. It looks as though it does need one extra element to moderate things. However because I am looking at every horse in every race, I would need to be able to access that element online.

If I could access the pre-post online it would be interesting to see how it fits in to the mix.

But early days and I did change my mind and logged the data again today.

I have decided to log to a week and then if a trend emerges in that data, test that trend for the remainder of the month.

Already it looks as if it would be a bumpy road so I agree that a stop loss would be needed.

Hi 4legs,

With your results can you tell me when you took the snapshots, was it 25 seconds and 2 seconds as you said in an earlier post? Also is the $0.50 factor a minimum so all the above results are based on these horses firming or drifting a minimum of $0.50 during the time the snapshots were taken?

Cheers,

Mat.

Hi Mat;

On the initial 20/2 there was no movement in the price by .50, so the results for the 3 days posted were snapshots at the 120 sec and the 10 secs mark.

I log all the results and in a secondary move I looked at all movement of .50 cents (either way) from the 120 seconds price.

I am continuing to log and when time permits I will analyse more; however I feel the analysis may need to be on varying movement prices depending on the price as I did have prices moving in the range -$330 - + $430.

I am approaching it all with an open mind and I do not want to filter it out of existence, but I have to decide how to handle these high swings - as my analysis may show these are the ones to follow.

Trust this assists ... Fred

Thanks Fred, very helpful.

I understand that I am probably the most recent member of this community and also the most inexperienced in the world of the punt, however I make the following comment based on my experience with what is the smallest data base in the world of the punt ... so lots of conditions attached - and I am sure one that everyone on the forum is aware of the statement I am about to make!

So .. the statement ...

For the uninitiated, one would have to exercise extreme care in looking at past data to predict a future outcome, as it would be too easy to impose conditions which would give a false hope.

An extreme example: On looking at my database (I know - the smallest in the world of punt) I could say the 7th ranked horse in races of 13 starters with a barrier less than 7 and with a drift of more than $2.0 would give a return of over 300% (fact from data base).

However my logical mind tells me that in reality the chances of that circumstance repeating would be so close to 0% it is a nonsense to even suggest it.

So my hypothesis would be that the more conditions one imposes the less chance of success it has!

Anyway a very, very satisfying exercise and another step forward in my learning process.

And once again a very sincere thanks to all those who offered their advise and support - it was very much appreciated.

Fred

Its all about sample size.
You really need at least 100 selections before any ideas can be formed.
Preferably 1000.
Those that bother making note of a trend after a days racing with perhaps 15 races are just washing their hands with a cake of mud.

Hi Moeee - thanks for your comments.

I have over 200 races (which I would consider a minimum), but due to my inexperience I am really not sure what I am looking for and consequently I am going down these silly roads.

But I will continue to collect the data to a 1000 records as you suggest and at some time in the future my experience may be adequate to properly analyse the data I have.

There is a spreadsheet floating around , may even be on this website posted by Woof43.
What you do is you chuck in the number of races , the number of winners , the returns of the winners , and stuff like that , and it tells you what percentage chance it is that your results are due to something significant , or whether it was just plain coincidence or luck.

Another method of analysis is to have 3 sample batches of 150 races.

If one sample shows a profit & the others more or less break even , it may indicate that it has potential.

Therefore more testing of batches of 150 each.

If a majority of further batch testing shows a profit , it usually is telling us something.
e.g. 5 winning batches out of 8 batches ect.

It makes the whole analysis game a little clearer to look at rather than one great big batch of 1000 races in one big clump.