Welcome to Becareful's week of tips - from today through to next Saturday I will post tips from a high strike rate system I have been working on with a friend of mine - so if it works I will take the credit but if it doesn't then its all his fault :grin:

The system is still being refined but so far has produced very consistant results - hopefully it will withstand the forum jinx! The selections generally have a very high strike rate but I recommend you only back them if they are showing $2.20 or higher - I will report the results using the Tabcorp dividends based on this rule (although you may get better prices on many of these with a bookie). In the past they have shown a profit on both win and place betting so I will report both.

Here are the tips for Sunday 26/1:
HOBART race 1: No 1 - GENUINE BLONDE
KILMORE race 1: No 2 - CHILI PEPPERS
WYONG race 2: No 9 - GOLD FORTUNE
PAKENHAM race 2: No 6 - ONLY
SUNSHINE COAST race 2: No 1 - UNDISCLOSED
WAGGA race 3: No 1 - CLASSY CLICHE
KILMORE race 4: No 6 - TOM ON THE TOWN
KILMORE race 5: No 1 - BEACH BOX
HOBART race 7: No 7 - RED DRAGON
WAGGA race 6: No 2 - EYE FOR FASHION
PAKENHAM race 9: No 1 - STEAM ROLLER
BUNBURY race 6: No 5 - METAL AS ANYTHING

Good luck.
_________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2003-01-26 09:51 ]

Started off looking like a good day but just went downhill after 3pm. Results were:

HOBART 1/1 - GENUINE BLONDE 1st $1.60/$1.10 (no bet due to price)
KILMORE 1/2 - CHILI PEPPERS 1st $1.50/$1.20 (no bet due to price)
WYONG 2/9 - GOLD FORTUNE Unplaced
PAKENHAM 2/6 - ONLY 2nd $2.90
SUNSHINE COAST 2/1 - UNDISCLOSED 2nd $2.00
WAGGA 3/1 - CLASSY CLICHE 1st $4.60/$1.50
KILMORE 4/6 - TOM ON THE TOWN 1st $2.30/$1.20
KILMORE 5/1 - BEACH BOX Unplaced
HOBART 7/7 - RED DRAGON No bet due to price
WAGGA 6/2 - EYE FOR FASHION Unplaced
PAKENHAM 9/1 - STEAM ROLLER Unplaced
BUNBURY 6/5 - METAL AS ANYTHING Unplaced

So total of 9 bets as 3 started below the cutoff price.
Win Return of $6.90 for a loss of $2.10 (23% LOT)
Place Return of $7.60 for a loss of $1.40 (16% LOT)

Good luck for the rest of the week becareful. Must admit had to look twice :eek: - becareful posting tips!?

_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-01-26 20:48 ]

Thanks Sandgroper - thought I might surprise a few people! Must be something in all that smoke blowing around town :smile:

Hopefully we will find a few more winners tomorrow. Here are the tips subject to scratchings - if there are any changes I will post an update in the morning.

RANDWICK race 1: No 1 - UMARIS
CAULFIELD race 3: No 1 - RINKY DINK
CAULFIELD race 5: No 2 - CONFEDERATE KID
MURRAY BRIDGE race 5: No 1 - MUSTAAGEL
DOOMBEN race 5: No 1 - DIFFICULT
DOOMBEN race 6: No 6 - I'M IN HEAVEN
ALBANY race 6: No 2 - SUPER TOM

________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson


[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2003-01-26 22:15 ]

Do agree with you Perth Placegetter - becareful posting tips! :eek: Day-job mustn't be working out :sad: :lol:

_________________
May the luck of the Irish be with you!



[ This Message was edited by: Paddy on 2003-01-27 06:39 ]

Thanks Paddy for your "support"???

No scratchings in my original selections however there are 2 additional selections due to scratchings of other horses:

DOOMBEN Race 3: No 2 - KILLACHI
GUNNEDAH Race 3: No 3 - VIN DE MAISON

Cancel that tip for Gunnedah Race 3 as the race is only 1000m. Unfortunately did not realise the same applied to Caulfield Race 3 until it was too late to post to the forum so will include that bet in the results. Sorry about that guys.

Looks like the forum jinx has struck with another poor day:

Randwick 1/1: Won $1.80/$1.20 but no bet due to price
Caulfield 3/1: Unplaced
Doomben 3/2: Unplaced
Caulfield 5/2: 3rd $1.80
Murray Bridge 5/1: 3rd $1.70
Doomben 5/1: Unplaced
Doomben 6/6: Won $2.30/$1.40
Albany 6/2: No bet due to price

So 6 bets today but only $2.30 win div and $4.90 place.

Running total:
15 bets
Win Return= $9.20
Place Return = $12.50

:sad:


Only 2 selections for tomorrow:
HAMILTON Race 5: No 6 - Risky Venture (hope thats not an omen!)
TAREE Race 7: No 1 - KILLAIN

Hi becareful, best of luck with your system. You’ve stated that selections generally have a very high strike rate. Is Risky Venture an exception? I see seven of the opposition (not allowing for scratchings) have a better win % and six of the opposition have a better place %. Also see that RV has only been placed (3rd) twice out of six starts over the 1400m. Are you by chance excluding “wet” track form stats? See the other selection is in a maiden of all things. :eek: Good luck anyway.

Rogan Josh,

I actually meant that the system that is producing the selections has a high strike rate. The original system was developed by my friend and involves form analysis for each horses recent starts as well as career statistics but was taking him around an hour per race - I have computerised the analysis portion to make it possible to rate all races every day but unfortunately the program is not perfect - Risky Venture should definitely not have been a selection. Had I reviewed the selections manually (I normally do this but did not have time last night) I would have realised that RV's last few starts were all in hurdles and hence should have been ignored.

Anyway 2 bets for no return today :sad:

Will post the selections for tomorrow in the morning when I have had a chance to check them.

Just one selection for today:

PENOLA race 2: No 2 - NICE 'N' CLASSY

1 bet yesterday for no result again. My only consolation at this point is that Saturday is generally the best day (more bets and a higher strike rate) so hoping for a big day on Saturday to break the Forum Jinx.

No selections under the system today.

No bets qualified under the system today. Those who want to have a try could look at:

Werribee R7 - 1 Lewinsky
Muswellbrook R6 - 8 Sky Belle

These just missed being selections so could be worth a try but I wont be including them in the results.

Now that's what I call havin an EW bet becareful :wink:

Think Lewinsky is the best of the "topweight" system starters today, myself. :smile:

_________________
May the luck of the Irish be with you!

[ This Message was edited by: Paddy on 2003-01-31 12:09 ]

A couple of selections for New Zealand tomorrow morning for the early starters:

NZ Race 4 - 1 Lord Belvedere (Note: This is quite a large field so no bet unless at least $4.50 for the win)
NZ Race 7 - 4 Bright Beauty

I will post the rest of the selections in the morning after scratchings come through.

OK - last chance to beat the jinx. Here are the remainder of the selections for today:

MOE race 1 at 12:25: No 3 - BROTHER DANIEL
GOLD COAST race 1 at 12:55: No 1 - UTURN
DOOMBEN race 1 at 13:20: No 1 - WARRIOR TRADER
MORPHETTVILLE race 2 at 13:40: No 5 - TALANTO
FLEMINGTON race 5 at 14:50: No 2 - CHAIRMAN'S CHOICE
MORPHETTVILLE race 7 at 17:00: No 4 - LADY KNOCKOUT
ASCOT race 3 at 17:15: No 2 - BONNIE BRAE
DOOMBEN race 7 at 17:20: No 6 - MAGIQUE SKY
ASCOT race 5 at 18:37: No 2 - DECISION TO GO

So what was the net result becareful?

I guess no news is bad news BettyBoop :sad:

Yes it was definitely bad news :sad:

Results for Saturday were:

NZ Race 4 - No bet
NZ Race 7 - 3rd $2.40
Moe Race 1 - Unplaced
Gold Coast R1 - Unplaced
Doomben R1 - Unplaced
Morphetville R2 - 3rd $1.60
Flemington R5 - Unplaced
Morphetville R7 - Unplaced
Ascot R3 - No bet
Doomben R7 - unplaced
Ascot R5 - 3rd $1.20

9 bets for no winners and $5.20 in place divs

I think the total for the week was 27 bets for $9.20 win return and $17.70 place return.

As I said on the forum jinx post my confidence was rewarded with a huge boot up the a*** by that vicious jinx. :sad: