I have been playing around with favourites again and found the following which I hope may be of some interest:

Metropolitan Saturday favourites from July 2001 to end Dec 2002 won:

808/2772 or 29.1% S/R for 18.3 % loss on turnover.

Of these, those carrying the limit weight or up to 1.5 kg over the limit (before claims) won:

198/649 or 30% S/R for 3% lot.

Using the following filters:

(i) Eliminate first uppers
(ii) Include only if career starts = 5 – 25,
these then won:


154/464 or 33% S/R for 4.5% profit on turnover.(average Div 3.15)

This profit figure is based on NSWTAB so
Div-Plus could be conservatively expected to add 0.1 of a point per 2 winners, increasing pot to 6%

Any other ideas for tweaking the figures while I have the spread sheet handy, or perhaps someone may be able to run this over a longer time-frame?

Tony

here are some suggestions.

http://www.propun.com.au/forums/vie...ic=1950&forum=7

Some stats percentages that might be useful filters.

Tony - Thanks for the post. What happens to S/R / POT if you add the following filters
a. place strike rate 50% +
b. 12 runners or less
c. 1600m races or less
Even if you can't add all of these, what difference do any of them make.

Cheers!

Thanks Fryingpan and Peakester for your suggestions.

I already had thrown a distance change filter over the above figures (
This changed the above findings to: S/R 128/370 (34.6%)
POT 30/370 (8.1%)

Peakester's filters added to this resulted in

(i) 50 % PP S/R 103/284 (36.3%)
POT 38/286 (13.2%)

(ii) POT 29/258 (11.2%)

(iii) POT 35/295 (11.8%)

(iv) all three filters S/R 63/160 (39.4%)
POT 28/160 (17.5%)


This is now 82 weeks of data so method (i) constitutes just less than 2 bets per week,
method (ii) approx 3.5 bets per week.

Is anyone able to run this over a longer scan please?

Sorry, didnt quite all come out.
For completion -

The distance filter was:
(i)= a etc.

Less than or equal to two hundred metre rise and less than or equal to one hundred metre drop in distance!!

Interesting post. Would it be possible to provide figures which reflect best fluctuations as I am currently researching this also.

Thanks.

No, can't help, Xanadu.
There has got to be a standard average multiple for best fluctuation over SP which should be able to be determined over a long enough time so to be applicable. Don't know what it is though!
Whatever, between Top Fluc., top Tote and betting exchanges, should be able to achieve a fair improvement on the above figures.

hi

i can run over 3 years results. please list system details as you want them and i shall post the results, or if you prefer send privately

mahato@bigpond.net.au
regards

dinodog

[ This Message was edited by: dinodog on 2003-02-17 07:16 ]

[ This Message was edited by: dinodog on 2003-02-17 07:57 ]

Thanks dinodog.
Summary of rules:

-Metro Saturday meetings.
-SP favourite or equal favourite.
-Less than or equal to 1.5kg over limit weight.
-Career starts 5-25.
-Not first up from spell.
-Not increasing distance by more than 200 metres or decreasing by more than 100 metres relative to prior start.
-Greater than or equal to 50% place strike rate.

Try that and see how you go.

hi tony

i'm glad you gave me all the rules

1. ppp does not allow 1.5kg over wt etc, i can do an approx

2. my stats, like all ppp users only go back to 30/6/1 for sat. price or rank stats. i go back to 1/1/2000 for all other stats

i will run what i can, but sorry for getting your hopes up

regards

dinodog

hi tony

probably the same or similar results to your own

Meetings considered : 2901
Win Strike Rate/Seln. : 32.3%
Plc Strike Rate/Seln. : 62.0%
Average Win Dividend : $2.83

WIN PLACE QUINELLA EXACTA TRIFECTA FIRST FOUR
Races Bet : 384 384 384 384 384 247
Races Won : 124 238 158 102 84 40
S.R./Race : 32.3% 62.0% 41.1% 26.6% 21.9% 16.2%
Outlay ($): 384.00 384.00 2282.00 2282.00 11338.00 28920.00
Return : 350.70 341.86 2435.60 2659.50 16353.40 46414.20
$ Profit : -33.30 -42.14 153.60 377.50 5015.40 17494.20
% P.O.T. : -8.7% -11.0% 6.7% 16.5% 44.2% 60.5%

Test Duration = 00:06:16

regards

mal

Thanks Mal. The relative weight search is achievable with ppp, will email you privately so as not to bore the non-ppp people here.

tony.with your weight rule wouldnt you be excluding the best horses in the race.for example.-50=0.1 pc of runs=0.1pc of wins.50.5-51.5=1.4pc of runs=0.7pc of wins.52-53=34.8pc of runs=21.3pc of wins.its only when the horse reaches 55kg up is there an advantage.in fact.runners carrying 55kg up account for 36.5pc of runners but provide 50.6pc of winners.the point being that lower weighted horses(contrary to popular opinion) have an appalling win record.

Darkydog, your stats are undeniably right and my reason for using the 1.5 filter is not an irrational attraction for lightweights but purely because applying it resulted in a profit wrt favourites.
ie Pure curve fitting over the past 18 months data which is why I am keen to test for longer and frankly sceptical it will hold up.
It does however remind me of an article sourced by the Inracing people, whom I know you respect, titled The Principle of Maximum Confusion where from memory they contend that if a horse is made favoutite without the obvious credentials (eg not near the top of the weights where most of the winners come from) they are favourite maybe for more subtle but often no less valid reasons and are so relatively underbet and more profitable than those obvious highly-weighted favourites which are then overbet.
I am extrapolating from the strict application of the article but I think am in keeping with its principle.(for what its worth)

tony.good luck with your test.good to hear from you.