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-   -   7/8/2011 (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=22222)

darkydog2002 7th August 2011 08:58 AM

7/8/2011
 
Cairns Cup
Race 8

1 - 2 - 3 -5 - 9 - 12 (Minimum $7

Care to have a crack Shaun.

Cheers
darky

Shaun 7th August 2011 09:38 AM

2 Magnum Forty Four 38
5 Old Mates Act 30
9 Preacher Man 24
8 Juveniles 22
3 Cash Attack 20

Brosco 7th August 2011 10:36 AM

Hope you don't mind me chiming :)

My ratings system came up with very similar:

9 Preacher Man 37
2 Magnum Forty Four 34
3 Cash Attack 33
5 Old Mates Act 31
7 Matiya's Pride 30
8 Juveniles 29

Good luck to all

Shaun 7th August 2011 11:02 AM

Brosco, do you do any type of pricing for your ratings?

Brosco 7th August 2011 11:49 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
Brosco, do you do any type of pricing for your ratings?



I have tried but they haven't really come out very well.

I tried just adding up all the ratings numbers and then converting each individual rating to a percentage of the total to derive the price (working on 100%). Even my 'standouts' were expecting a dividend of $4 or so - so it wasn't very realistic.

It is something that I want to pursue, so if you have some ideas I would be happy to hear them.

Shaun 7th August 2011 12:12 PM

I had the same issues but looking at your ratings they are similar values to mine so this might help you, a member of this forum, Thorns suggested this site http://www.racebase.co.nz/market.htm if you can understand the concept i think it will work for you, i am finding the pricing is very good as long as your ratings are sound.

Shaun 7th August 2011 12:17 PM

Hey Darky, i hope my other races are rated as well as these 3 from Seymour i ran a test on but no cash down.


Race 1 Rated Price
11 Xaar Best 2.20
1 Cierpinski 6.23
10 Viminx 6.23
2 Dashing Benbara 8.64
3 Faldo 9.30

Race 2 Rated Price
4 Godspeed 2.87
2 Decircles 3.05
12 Primed For Action 7.31
3 Devilgate Drive 9.55
6 Nine Stories 12.19

Race 3 Rated Price
14 Rock Musician 2.26
10 Hurriyet 4.96
13 Sixteen Pelicans 4.96
12 Jolie Danzer 7.55
4 Grassini 47.66

Check out the results.

darkydog2002 7th August 2011 12:19 PM

The way I work is if their are 6 Chances I want a minimum $7.
Works well for me.
Good luck to all of us.
Cheers
darky

darkydog2002 7th August 2011 12:32 PM

Track condition change Shaun - from dead to slow.
I,ll stick with what I,ve put down BUT sure wont be betting this meeting.

darkydog2002 7th August 2011 12:41 PM

Will have a crack at Muswellbrook Race 6 (dead)

1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 - 9 -10 - 12 (minimum $9)

If theres 3 left I,ll go trifecta /4 I,ll go ist 4.

As well as the win of course.

Shaun 7th August 2011 01:11 PM

I have 2 race in Cairns and wet tracks not an issue but here are mine for the other race.


1 Sly Lu
3 Newton's Rings
2 Boomerang
4 Dealers
7 Lucidly

darkydog2002 7th August 2011 03:11 PM

I took 3 - 5 - 6 - 8 - 9 Won $12

darkydog2002 7th August 2011 03:12 PM

I took 2- 3 -4 - 5 - 10 -12 - 9 Won $12

darkydog2002 7th August 2011 03:18 PM

Forget the other post.

Shaun 7th August 2011 03:27 PM

Check out my ratings post on Cairns race 7

I might have to look in to these first 4s

Brosco 7th August 2011 04:05 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
I had the same issues but looking at your ratings they are similar values to mine so this might help you, a member of this forum, Thorns suggested this site http://www.racebase.co.nz/market.htm if you can understand the concept i think it will work for you, i am finding the pricing is very good as long as your ratings are sound.


Thanks for that Shaun - on first reading it looks exactly what I have been searching for :)

darkydog2002 7th August 2011 04:06 PM

No luck for me shaun.
I took 1 - 3 - 9 - 12

Cheers
darky

Brosco 7th August 2011 04:08 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by darkydog2002
I took 2- 3 -4 - 5 - 10 -12 - 9 Won $12


well done dd:)

I would have been happier if we had managed to throw the 11 in there somewhere:)

Shaun 7th August 2011 04:08 PM

I had a bit on the winner and a small trifecta that lost

Shaun 7th August 2011 04:13 PM

I need to learn to stick with the better class races, i would win more and lose less depending on the day i am having but no mater if i am having a good day if i am betting to many races i always lose.

Shaun 7th August 2011 04:15 PM

Well last race for me in Kalgoorlie


6 Kalarena
4 Ain't No Saint
1 Oroya Gold
10 Two Strong Hearts
5 Walnut Creek

darkydog2002 7th August 2011 04:17 PM

No luck for me in the Cup.
I took 1 - 3 - 9 -12

Be worth combining our ratings on 1st 4,s shaun.

Shaun 7th August 2011 04:20 PM

I will go to the TAB site later and use the calculator to work out the best option just boxing them would not work out the best idea.

Brosco 7th August 2011 04:21 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
I need to learn to stick with the better class races, i would win more and lose less depending on the day i am having but no mater if i am having a good day if i am betting to many races i always lose.


I know that feeling.

I like to have an 'interest' in most races even though I know they are bad betting races.

Also I use a small progressive recovery staking plan and part of my plan says that when there is only 6 races remaining, stop at any loss - regardless! But do I???

darkydog2002 7th August 2011 04:26 PM

Kalgoorlie Race 7
1 - 2 - 3 - 7

Cheers

darkydog2002 7th August 2011 04:28 PM

Thanks for the kind words Broscoe.

Cheers
darky

Shaun 7th August 2011 04:29 PM

same here i like to have some sort of interest in a race, even a few dollars on my top runners but if you don't win it can add up.

I was thinking about this the other day and was going to allocate 1 bet amount to these selections, say for example i am betting 3% of my current bank per race and i have selected 3 races for the say that would be 9% i would then have 3% to bet on other races i choose to be involved in.

Sounds strange and it could impact on my profits but no worse than it does now.

moeee 7th August 2011 04:31 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
I need to learn to stick with the better class races, i would win more and lose less depending on the day i am having but no mater if i am having a good day if i am betting to many races i always lose.


You don't need to learn that , it seems you already know it.
You need to apply it.

I also have problems betting for the sake of betting.
Mine is caused by me spending a large amount of time studying the Form for a Race and feel compelled to wager regardless of whether a betting opportunity exists or not.


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