Laying System
 

Here's a lay system that I've been using.

1. maidens only
2. the fav must be between $1.50 and $5.00
3. must have finished 1,2,3,in last race
4. Must have strated 7 or mores day ago

Thanks for sharing your findings Benny.

They look interesting.

Is there a reason why the rules state that the Maiden was to finish 1st last start seeing that its a Maiden race?

Is it supposed to read 2nd & 3rd only last start.

No resumers or are they included so as long it ran 2nd or 3rd last start before spelling.
e.g. 42x , 53x

my mistake. Thanks for pointing that out.

Assuming a $1000 bank and bet 2.5% of the bank. When the bank increases by 50% recalculate your 2.5%

Thanks Benny.

Does that include resumers.
e.g. 63x , 52x

No

Today's Selections
 

Townsville

r1 1,2,7
r2 1
r3 2,3,4

Nowra

r2 3,9
r7 7

Sale

r2 3,7,11,12
r4 11

The selection becomes a bet if it meets rule 2

Hi Benny,

Good luck with your Lay selections today.

What market do you use to decide if horse is between $1.50 and $5.00?

We are assuming that the Fav only is targeted.
We are assuming Betfair figures would normally be used.


Looking at Todays result UniTAB figures as a guide only .(Tues)
It went very well for a profit .

Only bit once for 2.00 (UniTAB figures)
The rest fell over for us.

Well done Benny.

I notice it seems to do just as well on Maden Dogs & Trots, they call these non winner class.

So Bhagwan, with your amendments to Benny's rules it is:

1. maidens only
2. Must be the the fav and must be between $1.50 and $5.00
3. must have finished 2nd or 3rd, in last race
4. Must have started 7 or more days ago

Is that what you are assessing? that is a little different to Benny's original rules which allowed for multiple selections (other than the fav and outside the $1.50-$5 range... or have I got it wrong??

I dont know.

I was assuming that nearly all Favs would be <=5.00

therefore I assumed the Fav was to be targeted,

I did notice some non Favs getting up to win but very few Favs that had a 2nd or 3rd for LS.

Ignoring resumers.

RULES
Maiden races only.
Betfair fav that ran 2nd -3rd LS
Price 1.50-5.00
Ignor resumers.

Today's results (Thur)
2 from 2 successes
Priced 3.60 & 3.20

Thur 29 Sep
Results
6 from 6

A clean sweep.

This plan has not struck any horror days yet.

Its in profit overall.

For period 3rd Sep to 29th Sep; Using Betfair Rank and Betfair SP price 10 seconds before start and betting Betfair SP $30 Liability it made a profit of $52.55 based on BF Final SP Price.

It's always good to see something in profit however:
$30 Liability? So you would be 2 losses away from being in the red.

Does that include the minimum 5% deduction for commission on EACH winner (not just the overall profit for the period - they ARE different)?

Hi Ocho - yes correct 2 losses and no profit. The calc is based on 95% of each winning lay.

Thanks for that 4legs.

Does it make much of a difference if a price range of 2.50-4.50 is used.

Oppps!
 

I just realised I did not set the lower limit! .. so the results posted were from $0 - $5. Sorry about that. So here are the revised results over a range of settings.

With these figures we are adjusting the data to get the best result, so to get an accurate result we will have to monitor going forward - but you have to start somewhere.

I am away until the 6th so will not have data for those days, and today my betfair got totally stuffed up so I am ignoring it also; but going forward from the 6th onwards I will be able to provide live updates if you require.

Below are adjusted results over various parameters. After an upper of $7 the figures dropped off substantially. The data range is now 3rd to 30th Sept using parameters as previously stated. ... Fred

$0 - $4.5		$ 62.48
$1.4 - $4.5		$ 92.48
$1.5 - $4.5		$ 122.48
$1.6 - $4.5		$ 182.48
$1.7 - $4.5		$ 182.48
$1.8 - $4.5		$ 105.51
$1.9 - $4.5		$ 191.51
$2.0 - $4.5		$ 130.57
$2.1 - $4.5		$ 131.16
$2.2 - $4.5		$ 107.85
$2.3 - $4.5		$ 116.87
$2.4 - $4.5		$ 76.55
$2.5 - $4.5		$ 67.26
$0 - $5		$ 58.70
$1.4 - $5		$ 88.70
$1.5 - $5		$ 118.70
$1.6 - $5		$ 178.70
$1.7 - $5		$ 178.70
$1.8 - $5		$ 101.73
$1.9 - $5		$ 191.73
$2.0 - $5		$ 126.79
$2.1 - $5		$ 127.38
$2.2 - $5		$ 104.07
$2.3 - $5		$ 113.09
$2.4 - $5		$ 72.77
$2.5 - $5		$ 63.48
$0 - $7		$ 87.90
$1.4 - $7		$ 117.90
$1.5 - $7		$ 147.90
$1.6 - $7		$ 207.90
$1.7 - $7		$ 207.90
$1.8 - $7		$ 130.93
$1.9 - $7		$ 220.93
$2.0 - $7		$ 155.99
$2.1 - $7		$ 156.58
$2.2 - $7		$ 133.27
$2.3 - $7		$ 142.29
$2.4 - $7		$ 101.97
$2.5 - $7		$ 92.68

Thanks 4legs.
Very interesting.

It shows that targeting the 1.90+ rang ,was the most profitable & constant across the board.

Sat Oct 1 results

Using price range 2.50-5.00
Maiden Favs placed 2nd or 3rd LS
Ignoring resumers.

5 successes from 7
+3.40 prof
5.7% increase on bank if betting 1.7% of bank (1/60th)

Interestingly there were 8 Favs priced less than 2.50
6 of those 8 won their race.
Maybe Sat has higher quality maidens.

I'm bringing this old thread back up as I am looking for a system that one can lay which, therefore, will not effect any turnover charge markets (as lay bets don't effect those markets).

I stumbled upon this thread that I thought I would try out in real time but just with simulated bets at the moment.

If anyone can tell me (via their records) whether this is or isn't worth it before I get too heavily involved I would appreciate it.

I'm using the following:
Price range 1.90-5.00 (as that was the most profitable while reducing exposure)
Maiden races only
Must be Fav & placed 2nd or 3rd LS
Ignoring resumers

I'm laying using a $5 level stake (simulation only at this stage). Would a $30 liability be better?

Selections for today (one of these must be favourite and in the odds range 10 seconds before start time):

Course Race No Horse Nos
SCst
1- 1 3 8
2- 4
3- 3 4 7 11

Albury
1- 8
2- 4 7 8
3- 3 13 14

Bendigo
1- 6 7
2- 4 9
3- 2 7 11
4- 2 5 9 11

Murray Bridge
3- 6
4- 2 6 8 9

Bunbury
2- 9
3- 1 10
4- 12
5- 1

Wangaratta
1- 1
2- 10 11 14
3- 6

Devonport
1- 6
4- 3 7 10

TO
I ran 12 months of Betfair results. Laying the fav only, moving rocks around the paddock. Laying the top two a negative. Laying the top three a negative.
Laying all =<$20 a bigger negative. Laying the field a positive, but be prepared for one losing week in four and four losing months. This was every race. I know that there are races in there that would not pay ever and a culling exercise could straighten some of the bumps.

Thanks beton. This was for the fav in the current betting race IF it had ran 2nd or 3rd at it's previous start with no resumers?

If laying all selections < $20 is a big loser and laying the field is positive, then wouldn't you just lay everything over $20 and it would be a bigger positive?

And back everything under $20 ?

This may be so and a good deduction. Unfortunately I have not tested this so I can't post a comment. I was laying all between $3 and $30 and was positive although very erratic. I am now taking lessons in excel to be able to test this myself. The answer may be in laying $10 plus. I ran it on maidens only which produced a dismal result so culling the maidens may be worth the effort. I also ran it on the trots and although the results were very good they need to be rerun because some of the results were out of kilter with reality. Time has been an issue and thanks to stuggots for helping me to run these results.

Hi beton. Any answer to the above? Were your results for all faves in maiden races or for the criteria of this "system"?

The test was on all faves - all races. I tested for the whole field at $100 liability. I also tested the 1st fav at -$154. the top 2 fav at -$1305. the top 3 fav at -$1515 and those =<$20 at +$103. I then tested the maidens by themselves for +$2080. The maidens had 26 losing weeks.

Okay thanks beton.

So far today there have been 5 qualifying races for 0 winners. There are 4 races to come at Bunbury which will obviously make or break today's effort.

Well the system got off to a great start with 5 favs falling over for us but two favs got up at Bunbury reducing the winnings to next to nothing.

Full Market Name Selection Bet Type Amount Price Profit And Loss
13:40 R2 1170m Mdn\14. Valdori 14. Valdori Lay 5 3.55 5
14:15 R3 1400m Mdn\6. Learning Centre 6. Learning Centre Lay 5 4.5 5
14:35 R4 1600m Mdn\11. Demonstrable 11. Demonstrable Lay 5 3 5
14:55 R4 1606m Mdn\2. Grigio Now 2. Grigio Now Lay 5 4.9 5
15:11 R4 1350m Mdn\7. Da Nyet 7. Da Nyet Lay 5 3.05 5
16:40 R3 1410m 3yo\1. Cougar Nights 1. Cougar Nights Lay 5 2.3 -6.5
18:10 R5 1410m Mdn\1. Whatever Trevor 1. Whatever Trevor Lay 5 3.9 -14.5

Total for $5 lay bets +2.38 Including Commission
5 winning lays & 2 losing lays

Monday picks if they start fav and if in the odds range:

Toowoomba
1- 1 2

Warrnambool
3- 2
4- 3
5- 4

Coonamble
1- 5 9 11 13

Geraldton
1- 1 8
2- 3 4 10 12

Laying the Field
 

Hi Beton, I too have looked at these results. The culling required is extensive, you need to remove races that don't have SP betting. The odds shown for non SP races are some sort of weighted average and wouldn't be available to us. For example 13 Oct R3 Ararat, a non SP race :
Betfair database odds: 130 18 23 20 20 2.9
Back odds on day: 85 21 24 19 17 2.9
Lay odds on day: 770 21 90 20 36 2.92

I'm sure Stugots or someone could write a macro to cull it, matter of twisting their arm! I'm not sure what percentage of races in total would be non-SP, maybe 15 - 20%? it would be interesting to do the excercise. With my excel literacy I'd have to do every race manually and report back at Xmas time.
Cheers RP

Laying the Field Pt 2
 

Following on from my previous post, re laying the field in SP races. I manually removed all non SP races from the week 8th-14th Oct 2012 and nett profit ($100 liability) dropped from $1964 to $759. Big Drop!!! And that was a winning week.
Cheers RP

I've been looking for a way to lose money to a bookie. Given these stats would backing the fav in maiden races be the best way to go?

Hi The Ocho,

Due to the comments from Beton, UB and Riconpaul regarding the shorter end of the maket, it might pay to keep records of qualifying selections that start higher, like $5.01-$20 / $20.01-$40 etc.

Mmmm, no good today. For some reason the bot fired off two bets in the first race with the fave winning the race. I'll count both although the result should be around $5 worse actually.

Full Market Name Selection Bet Type Amount Price Profit And Loss
13:47 R1 1300m Mdn\9. Maughan 9. Maughan Lay 5 3.2 -11
13:47 R1 1300m Mdn\11. Film Star 11. Film Star Lay 5 3.4 5
14:00 R1 1000m Mdn\1. Toshinaga 1. Toshinaga Lay 5 4.1 5
14:10 R3 1200m 3yo\2. Chow Meow 2. Chow Meow Lay 5 2.02 5
15:20 R5 1400m Mdn\4. Northern Edge 4. Northern Edge Lay 5 3.65 -13.25
16:41 R2 1207m Mdn\10. Tribal Cat 10. Tribal Cat Lay 5 4.8 5

Not sure it's worth shifting those rocks around the garden.

I'll check on the others tonight TS to see what is happening with those.

Today -5.22 (4 winning lays from 6 bets)

Total for $5 lay bets -2.84 Including Commission :(
13 Lay bets
9 Winning lays
4 Losing lays

Checking the two days results hasn't really revealed anything too much as yet TS but the stats so far to lay all are (for $1 level lay amount no comm):
$5-$20 = -20
$20.50-$40 = +8

Picks for Wednesday if they are fave and in the price range of 1.90-5.00:

Toowoomba
1- 13
2- 1 3 5 7 8
3- 1 5

Townsville
3- 2

Muswellbrook
1- 8
2- 6 15
4- 3 6 7

Traralgon
1- 6 10
2- 7 9
3- 5 7 9 10 12

I'm dropping this one. As Gordon Gekko would say - it's a dog with fleas. As a matter of fact I'm not quite sure what the point of this system was as it is basically laying maidens which just missed out last time out and they're faves or nearly faves with the price range this time out.

Geez I'm gullible. :rolleyes:

Results today only two races with one loss - total loss today -9.25

Full Market Name Selection Bet Type Amount Price Profit And Loss
13:18 R2 1000m 3yo\6. Supreme Bella 6. Supreme Bella Lay 5 3.85 -14.25
14:10 R3 1900m Mdn\5. Prince Valiant 5. Prince Valiant Lay 5 3.45 5

Total for $5 lay bets -12.09 Including Commission
15 Lay bets
10 Winning lays
5 Losing lays

For TS
$5-$20 = -12.3
$20.50-$40 = +8 (only 8 picks)

I working on a new idea and am throwing these up on a test run.

Ellerslie

r1 CHEEKY BOY

r2 FAME AND GLORY,HANNAH MARY, hard to get much info on most others.

r3 STARGURU GASTON

r4 TIGER MOSS,KOOL GAL,ELUSIVE GOLD

spilt beer on keyboard saturday celebrating a win, it is sticking a bit will try drying it out again, see how these go and will come back with more later.

I have ordered this book on line:

Designing Speed in the Racehorse
By Ken McLean

good luck today guys, have the day off so will follow your selections.

Ellerslie

r5 MISS PELEAR,FAZZLE

r6 SECRET'S ONLY,AMBITIOUS CHAMPION,LA SPINETTA

r7 ATACAMA,MORE THAN SACRED!!! - like this one a lot

r8 VOGUE

r9 CHAPARRONE,SANGSTER,ANNIE HIGGINS,HIACE

r10 ARIZONA JAZZ,