Hi guys,thought it best to take Betty Boops advice and kick in a new thread.Big Louie,can you post your figures for all races and all days,and also without applying the priceline filter?When I posted the original rules,I intended it as a Saturday system only,however there have been many good priced winners during the week,so I don't think it should be restricted to Sat.only.I still prefer it in it's raw form,even though the facts and figures experts(of which I am Not one!)say it will not stack up long term.I tried using some filters early on,but found I was eliminating winners here and there.If you were incorporating the priceline filter suggested by Big Louie,you would have eliminated some good priced winners,Riva Rebel at 18.70/4.60 comes to mind,and there would be others.There are two filters I have been giving thought too,that is;
1.Restricting the distance range to 1600 metres.
2.Drawn no wider than barrier 8.
The logic behind the distance range is obvious,it gets harder for any horse to carry a big weight the further it has to carry same.The barrier draw I guess explains itself too.Given that we are always on the topweight,we don't want it to expend any extra energy trying to get across from a wide gate.Also as this system seems to throw up a lot of placegetters,I am using a 2x8 staking method.Any placegetter @1.25 is break even,anything above that figure is a profit.Just to clarify the distance range,that is up to and including 1600 metres.Any thoughts on this?Big Louie and or Becareful,any figures you can come up with using these filters would be greatly appreciated.Cheers

Selections for today with filters in place.
Esk Race 6
Cessnock Race 7(just scraped in with the scratching(I'm assuming)bringing it in to barrier 8.
Cheers and good luck!

Selections for Wednesday(no filters)
Eagle Farm R2/R5
Gosford R5
Mornington R3/R4/R5
Pinjarra R5
Morphettville No qualifiers
Cheers

Angel416,

I had a bit of a play with this using my database and, sorry to say, the results are not great. I tested with all the data I have for last calender year, using NSWTAB divs. One thing to note is that I ignored any races where either of the top 2 by weight were scratched so you may get a slightly different result if you substituted the next eligible runner instead of ignoring the race.

I also checked out the "2nd topweight" as suggested by Big Louie and this seems to have more potential. Anyway the results I got were as follows:

No Filters
1258 selections, TopW=27% Loss, 2ndW = 5% Loss

I tried all sorts of filters on the Top Weight selections but nothing made a great improvement.

Barrier seems pretty much irrelevant - 80% of them start from barrier 8 or less anyway. Barrier 1-8 = 26% LOT, Barrier 9+ = 30% LOT.

Track condition seems to show that Good or Fast tracks are the best bets but again there is only a few percent in it and everything shows a loss.

Race Distance seems to indicate that longer distances are more favourable. 1400m and over showed a loss of 13% whilst under 1400m showed a loss of 40%.

Metro v's NonMetro - Metro (all days) was significantly better than NonMetro for the Top Weight showing a loss of around 18% compared to 33% for country.

Price - Removing any runners over $10 improves POT a bit as only 1 winner over this price.

Even combining all the positive filters together I could not come up with a profit for the years worth of races I was working with.

However the 2nd Top Weights is a different story. Again with no filters there was around a 5% loss.

Barrier was interesting with a higher POT for barriers greater than 8 but again only 20% of runners fall into this category.

Track condition seems to be generally irrelevant (again HEAVY shows a bigger loss but quite a small number of bets in this category so it may be irrelevant, Fast has the best results).

Distance is interesting with a profit showing on races less than 1300m and again over 1600m (up to 2200m) but a bit of a black hole in between.

The Metro/Non-Metro distinction was also interesting with significantly better results for non-metro meetings - a contrast to the TopWeights.

Breakdown by State seems to give very interesting results with ACT/NSW and Qld all showing a good profit, SA & TAS breaking even, WA a loss of around 8% and Vic a loss of around 33%.

I also analysed by State and Metro grouping and found that :
NSW Non-Metro (includes ACT) gave good profit
NSW Metro gave a loss
QLD Metro gave a profit
QLD Non-Metro gave a loss
SA Metro small profit
SA Non-Metro small loss
VIC both gave signicant loss

So for the year in question (2002) you would have made a significant profit by backing the number 2 horse in NSW/ACT non-metro and QLD metro meetings where the top weight was carrying at least 2.5 kg more than the number 2. Based on these rules there were 324 selections, 63 winners (average price $8.11) for profit of $187 or 58%.

The problem is when I ran the same rules over the 2001 data I got a significant LOSS so I doubt if it will hold up.

Anyway best of luck to you.

Becareful,thank you muchly for your facts,figures,input,etc.etc.Big Louie and Billborric,thank you also.Redcraze and all others,thank you also.I am at a loss as where to go with system.All the facts and figures seem to suggest that this method will not stand up long term.Yet it keeps on delivering!Yesterday was a fizzer,2 bets for a 2nd placing,and one unplaced.Today there where 5 bets(after 2 scratchings)for 3 winners and 4 placings.What I am going to do is keep backing the qualifiers as per the original system that I posted.I will post the selections each day if there is any interest expressed for me to do so.If not,I will just continue along my merry way,cheers,angel

Angel,
I would imagine that there is some system going on here - its just that the databases may not be picking up the common factor.

Perhaps the horses your method selects have come down a class, or have the best time or class rating or placed last race.

There will be some common factor that allows you to ditch a lot of the long term losing bets - but it might take more than a database to find it.

see ya
Every Topic

Thursday selections-
Bathurst R2
Ballarat R4
Moonee Valley R7
Cheers

Hi All, I've been watching events unfolding with extreme interest & on occasions wanted to post but couldn't manage the simple task of registering!! However I'm here now & just wanted to congratulate everyone esp. angel on their time-consuming input. I've found a really old staking plan which may/may not help:Winning Odds Plan - 1st bet 2 units rising by 1 for each loser backed so for run of 7 losers, outlay of 35 units. Next sel.with 9 units wins at 5/1 giving return of 45 winning units. Now drop back winners price from amount of last bet to ascertain amount to be invested on next race [9-5=4]so next bet is 4 units.Could it work? I'm the least mathematical person on earth with no databases but desperately in need of a good system!! Aren't we all? Dying to see your next one angel. Please don't keep us in suspense!! btw I'm a $200 bank punter so won't be hurting the divs!

Here is a variation on the 2nd topweight theme - it has shown a profit 19 out of the last 24 months but no guarantees for the future! It was retrofitted to 12 months of data and then tested against another 12 months and did hold up.

2nd Topweight (ie. No. 2)
Must be 1 or 1.5 kg lighter or 3.5kg or more lighter that top weight
Must have QTab rating of 100
Must be priced between $4.00 and $5.00 on Supertab at jump time.

So far this month there have been 12 selections for 4 winners - the winners were:
1/2 - Flemington R4 - It's Rysek $4.10/1.60
5/2 - Gawler R4 - Salazar $4.20/2.00
15/2 - Ascot R1 - Fore Stay $4.00/1.70
18/2 - Werribee R6 - Nawanda $4.30/1.50
There were another 4 placings paying 2.00, 1.60, 1.80 & 1.80

For the longshot chasers you can also use the same rules but with a price filter of $11.00 to $16.00 - not very many bets but quite a nice POT over the last 2 years.

_________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2003-02-21 08:34 ]

Angel's System Mark 2. (Red's Filters)

Angel this is working really well.
4th straight winning week from 4 attempts.

From Sun 16th to Sat 22nd inclusive.

12 bets - 5 winners - 11 places

Win div total $18.90
Place div total$20.00

Win Return ($5.00) $94.50 - Profit $34.50
Place Return($15.00)$300.00 - Profit $120.00

Total profit $154.50 (outlay $240.00)

Angel, it works and this is showing up in random weeks selected through VICTAB.

So far not one losing week in 8.
This includes current as well as 4 historical chosen at random ovet the past 24 months

I am very happy with it - thanks Angel416.


[ This Message was edited by: Redcraze on 2003-02-22 19:53 ]

This system keeps defying the stats with at least two good winners today including Silver Birch under a huge weight (some 6 kilos handicap) on a soft track and Yallah Stinger giving 3 kilos.

Well done Angel, hope you were on them for a fortune!

NO (A) APPRENTICES
NO FIRST UPPERS
NOTHING OVER 1600
NOTHING OUTSIDE BARRIER 10
FULL STOP
IT MIGHT STAND UP ????

Ron50,

The QTab ratings are on their website - http://www.tabonline.com.au

Redcraze,could please re-post your filters,and the results that you have achieved with them in place?Once again I thank you and every one else that has shown interest in this post and this system.Do have another interesting angle that I am working on,but am reluctant to post same at this point in time.Cheers

For anyone interested,a progressive staking plan to maximise profits.We bet in a series of 8 bets as follows-
1-1-2-3-4-6-9-14.
When a winner is struck close off the series and start another at 1 unit.There is one filter that MUST be used with this,that is we cannot bet at less than 2/1(bookies)or $3(TAB).You cannot lose on this sequence no matter when a winner is struck,but ONLY if you strictly adhere to the priceline filter.I would suggest a starting bank of $200,betting in $5 units.There are 40 units bet in a series(if it goes down to the last bet)so it would take 8 losers to wipe out the bank.That may well happen sometime.but it certainly hasn't been recently.As the bank increases in size(hopefully)I would suggest increasing the unit size accordingly.You can use the system in it's raw format as I originally posted it,or incorporate Redcraze's filters,which by his results seems to be going quite nicely.Whichever you go,good luck....Cheers,angel

Anyone who followed my recommendation in post earlier today should be pretty happy,I know I am!!!Today's results as follows;
Launceston R2 unplaced
Launceston R7 1st 7.70/2.40
Series closed.
Start new series.
Randwick R7 2nd
Randwick R8 1st 7.20/2.10
Series closed.
Outlay 1st series 2 units
Return 1st series 7.35 units
Outlay 2nd series 2 units
Return 2nd series 5.1 units
New series starts tomorrow.
A healthy profit was achieved today,two series completed,no filters in place.Hope that someone other than yours truly was on as well.I may take this away and just go it alone,this post does not seem to be generating a great deal of interest or response anymore.Cheers,angel

I'm sure, Angel, that many of us are following your ideas with enthusiasm. Missed the first of the bets at Randwick (after a scratching); but was most impressed with the other picks!!

I'm not sure about the progression. While it does mean you are a winner when a winner gets up, the 'wipe-out" when it came would lose so much of what you have achieved ---- and it will happen!

Personally I would prefer just even stakes with an increase of outlay as the 'bank' increases. Thus today if you started with a $400 bank and bet 2.5% ($10), your bank would be now $77 + $72 - $40 = $109 (plus original $400 = $509). Next bets would be $12.75 (2.5% of $509). With such an approach you would not reduce bets after a loss --- you could sustain 40 losses after all.

Thanks for the interesting posts.

Merriguy,thank you for your response,and your kind words.I can see where you are coming from with the approach you are using,but it is my main aim to strike while the iron is hot and maximise profits!Let me put it to you this way,hypothetical scenario of course;starting bank $400.Using your method betting 2.5% of the bank,$10 first bet.Let's say you go 7 bets for no winner.The 8th bet is a winner,but because you are betting 2,5% of your existing balance,you would only have $8(rounded)on it.So you are $24 behind.Using the progression method I suggested,the 8th bet would be 14 units($140)for a collect of $980!!Huge difference,I'm sure you would agree.I have no doubt there will be sometimes in the future when this method will have runs of outs equalling 8,or maybe even more,but I am the eternal optimist!I also have no doubt there are many followers of this method who are not comfortable putting $140 on a horse,money is so hard to come by these days.I only put the progression plan up for the perusal of everyone,and the adventurous amongst you will no doubt give it some serious thought.I guess it all comes down to what each individual is comfortable with,and your approach to betting.If you are a conservative and cautious punter,it may not be the way you choose to go.It's entirely up to your own personal preference.However,I urge anyone who is serious about making good profits to give it some thought.I don't think this system will have too many runs of 8 losers.My opinion only,not being sarcastic.There was only 1 selection today at Sunshine Coast,rained out.I am on the Atherton Tablelands,about an hour's drive from Cairns,it is currently bombarding us,I really hope you guys are getting some of it too!!!Will post tomorrows selections in the morning,cheers angel

Thanks for the reply, Angel. I agree that it is up to the individual to decide his/her level of comfort.

Actually, I said that the bet is not reducing --- so you would have a full $10.00 on the winner. You also have to consider that, with the progression, it is not only the $140 that you risk --- you have already outlaid $260 (as against the even stakes betting outlay previously of $70). You would still be well ahead ($720 versus square on a $7.00 winner --- but they are not too common --- though a couple this week), but in reality you have $400 riding on that last bet! If the bet came in at $3.00 (more likely), you would have actually lost $20.00 on the series!! Good fun playing with figures, isn't it?!?

According to my calculations four bets today (before scratchings): Nowra Races 2 & 5, Swan Hill 6, Grafton 7. Dubious about heavy or slow tracks though.

Merriguy,thanks for your reply,but I can't agree with your figures.If the last bet in the series came in at $3,the minimum acceptable price,the result would be a return of $420,for a small profit of $20.that is the way the progression is structured,so that a winner at any stage will deliver a profit.We could debate all day progression v. level stakes,but in the end I am trying to maximise profits by having more on a winner after a run of losers.I don't know the actual figures,but I don't think this system has had 8 losses in arow since I posted it.Anyway,thanks again for your thoughts,angel

selections 1-3 03
Eagle Farm R6

Rosehill
R2
R4
R8

Caulfield
R3
R6

Toowoomba
R4

Cheltenham
R1
R3

Ascot
R3
R4
R7

Gold Coast
R7

Cheers to anyone having a go,angel

Just want to thank you angel for your staking plan. Had a ball last 3 days working a couple of systems including the t/weight [no filters] one. Thanks again & please keep posting.

Hey guys(and gals)this system appears to have taken a bit of a nose dive at present,I have'nt been able to monitor it as closely as I would like to,as I have been away on and off,weather permitting,chasing the almighty dollar.From the results I have been able to check,it seems that Becarefuls data is spot on.But I will not give up just yet!I really think the progression method is the way to go.Cheers,angel

Cinna,thanks for your kind words,and your appreciation,muchos grazias!I have found it to be quite beneficial over the years.As long as you don't take odds less than 2/1,you cannot lose on a series of 8 bets,no matter when a winner is struck!Don't be so anxious to get past 1 unit mate!!Are you interested in quinella betting?I have a very good progression method for quinellas,involving a series of 16 bets.Please let me know if you would like me to post it.Cheers,angel

My confidence is up for today,so let's go!
Gosford
R4
R7
Mornington
R3
R6
Murray Bridge
R6
R7
Cheers,angel

Returns for week ending 1/3 using the filters
a)heavy track - NO BET.
b)slow track - IF PROVEN
c)dead track - YES
d)Up to 1400m - YES
e)Inside 7 (incl)- YES.

12 bets - 4 winners / 5 placings

Outlay win $60 - Return $69.00 - Win $9.00
Outlay place $180 - Return Loss $109.50 - Loss $70.50.

Total loss $61.50.

This is the 1st loss in 5 weeks if the staking method of 5 win and 15 place is used.

However if you back win only it has a 5 week winning streak

The bank is still well in front after its loss this week.

Confidence justified today!You beauty!!
Gosford
R4 unpl
R7 unpl
Mornington
R3 1st 3.60/2.00
R6 2nd 1.40
Murray Bridge
R6 1st 3.90/1.60
R7 1st 7.80/2.70

Unitab divvies way in front,good to be home out of the rain!!And making money!Go you good thing.

Cinna,how did you go???

Cheers,angel

All power to angel,

Goodonya!

The way this is going, no need to go to work!

Angel,

Could you tell me why one of your filters was restricting your bets to those starting inside barrier 7.
As I outlined in a recent post, barrier positions can play a vital part in the eventual performance of a runner, especially, as they do at Hawkesbury, start loading the field from barrier 5 outwards. No-one can convince me that this cannot potentially have a detrimental effect on a runner's performance.

Xanadu,mate,That was not my filter,it was put in place by Redcraze.I am not using any filters at time of writing.The only filters I am considering are no bets on heavy tracks,and no betting on Fridays,the record on that day is abysmall!!Cheers,angel

Barrier position are important 99% of the time.
I am putting together some data on barrier positions over distances 800m to 1400m on various tracks around each state. Once I have compiled the data I will adjust the filters.

So far this week, I have had 9 bets fo 5 winners and 6 places.

Maybe because it is the Angel system it is blessed.:smile:

Hi all, yes angel, a good last 2 days mainly due to your staking plan. I've been stuffing around for ages trying poor ones but yours works well for my situation [win only].Quinella progression is great as long as you can get the ************ things regularly enough!! Would be great if you could post it as I'm sure others would be interesred too.Personally I use 'Jim's' ratings since he rated mine on top when it won at Murtoa back in Aug paying $18 - no I didn't back it, 22 starts, still a mdn & 1st start for me!! I spotted a thread on ratings on a message board,getting in touch afterwards.I don't have time to do the form & with the files he sends, it's all there for me to see. Those 2 huge roughies at Gatton Tues were in his Track/Average column, 1 on top, the other 4th & as they'd started coming up at any odds I noticed that was the column they came from. Only had $10 on but that's still a good result for me! Starting to waffle now & better check the fields!!

Today(not aware of scratchings)
Townsville
R5
R6
Canberra
R6
Gunnedah
R5
R7
Post tomorrows later

Flemington
R6
R9
Randwick
R2
R8
R9
Doomben
R3
R4
R6
R8

Don't have access to SA or WA fields at present

G'day angel, I've been following this thread since it started but could you please set out the system as it stands now? I've got SA and WA fields in front of me if you want the selections.
If your only criteria is the topweight if 2.5 kg or heavier than horse no.2 then there are three selections at Morphetville:
R3
R7
R8
and no qualifiers at Ascot.
Good Luck

[ This Message was edited by: Dirk Gently on 2003-03-08 09:50 ]

Dirk,sorry about the confusion mate,but I am using the system with no filters at all.
Todays results:
Toowoomba R3 unpl.
Gold Coast R2 1st 2.90/1.50
Doomben R3 1st 3.50/1.60
R4 2nd 1.80
R6 scr.
R8 3rd 3.10
Flemington
R6 unpl.
R9 unpl.
Randwick
R2 scr.
R8 scr.
R9 unpl.
Morphetville
R3 1st 9.30/3.20
R7 unpl.
R8 unpl.

Not a bad day overall,cheers,angel

Sorry Dirk,yes,2.5 kgs above the next in the weights is the only criteria I'm using.Redcraze is having a lot of success with filters he has applied,they are somewhere on this thread if you are interested.Todays selections:
Dalby
R6
R8

Orange
R3

Echuca
R8 No2

Hobart
R6

Pinjarra
R6

Cheers and good luck!

I get the impression that interest is waning on this system because it has hit a lean period.I have been away for a few days,so don't know results,but no new posts for 3 days?Redcraze,are you still monitoring?If so,what the latest figures?I am interested to know how my progression method is faring with this system.Cinna,are you still using it??Cheers,angel