Given the size of the "Northerly Returns" thread, thought I'd start a new one where members can post their comments or views on the great WA champion.

_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-02-20 12:21 ]

Interesting interview with Fred Kersley on local ABC radio this morning.

Sees Fields Of Omagh as his main danger on Saturday and throughout Northerly’s current campaign in Melbourne.

Although a small field on Saturday (5 starters last count) he is concerned if run at a muddling pace could play into the hands of Fields Of Omagh – could be we might see Northerly going to the lead early.

What I found even more interesting, was Fred’s comments re Northerly’s reported Sydney plans.

Don’t seem to be set in concrete and Fred even stated that Northerly might return to Perth following his Melbourne campaign.


_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-02-20 12:23 ]

Some interesting stuff there Perth Placegetter. Sticking my neck out a bit and wondering if Northerly might be vulnerable on Saturday :wink:

Courtesy The West Australian website:

England has joined the growing list of leading racing countries keen to lure WA's champion galloper Northerly out of Australia.

Trainer Fred Kersley, who has put on hold many requests to race Northerly in Dubai's $13 million World Cup, the world's richest race, now has to entertain English hopes.

Like other northern hemisphere fans, Northerly has made the English heads spin, specially with his demolition of top European star Grandera in last season's Group 1 Cox Plate in Melbourne.

Nick Cheyne, Ascot director of racing, yesterday arrived in Melbourne and took Kersley and wife Judy, Northerly's half owner, to lunch.

But Kersley was typically non-committal about the English idea to run Northerly in the $2 million King George and Queen Elizabeth Stakes over his 2002 Caulfield Cup-winning distance of 2400m.

The Guy Walter-trained Defier, runner-up to Northerly when the WA star won his second successive Cox Plate, is also high on the list of England.

"There's a lot of water to pass under the bridge before then," Judy Kersley said. "Fred has just added it to the list. He wants to concentrate on the Australian Cup and BMW."

Before Kersley thinks about Europe, Dubai or Singapore, he has Northerly aimed at the $1.25 Australian Cup at Flemington on March 10 and the $2 million BMW Classic in Sydney on April 12.

Northerly has his second run in his latest campaign in the $200,000 weight-for-age St George Stakes (1800m) at Caulfield on Saturday when he renews rivalry with the Tony McEvoy-trained Fields Of Omagh.

Kersley has been pleased with Northerly's progress since his first-up Melbourne fourth to Yell in the Orr Stakes on February 8 when Fields Of Omagh ran a close second.

The 1400m was far too short for Northerly and he is favourite to return to the winners' list at the 1800m of the St George Stakes.

He is an odds-on favourite in early St George fixed odds markets and dominates betting with Fields Of Omagh.

At around 10-11%, backing the others looks good to me. Stranger things have happened.

The rain in Melbourne should provide a chance for Mr Casanova to add value to the trifecta and if it is on the dead-slow side then Georgie Boy.

Magoo

never back against a champion!!!!

Northerly all the way no matter what the price. nothing will ever pass it in the straight, its a freak

Too good - no matter the track condition, Northerly is just too good and any slight hope of exploiting a factor against his class is generally a waste of time (ask B Martin trying his hardest to squeeze out a protest during the race call). With thanks to Kevin Costner: "Here endeth the lesson". Couldn't agree more Ra Sun and the lesson has been learnt. To give him his credit, Mr Martin did concede shortly afterwards his interest was beaten by a better horse, which adds weight to Ra Sun's comments.

Hi all,
just reading that the 1400m Futurity might be an option for Northerly as Kersley is worried with a 16day break to the Australian Cup the champ won't be at peak fitness. The other 2 options are the 2000m Gold Cup where he'd carry 60kg or strong gallops leading into the big race.
I hope Fred sticks to the strong gallops as he has Sydney and possible International campaign ahead. In fact I will be very interested to see how Northerly handles the Sydney(right handed) way of going, if it's a bother at all. Imagine how the STC will promote the first time appearance of the no.1 galloper of the last 2 years during their carnival. Should pack 'em in like sardines.

Courtesy The West Australian website:

Trainer Fred Kersley has sprung a surprise by announcing he will enter champion galloper Northerly for Saturday's $400,000 weight-for-age Futurity Stakes (1400m) at Caulfield.

The gelding, who boosted his stake earnings beyond $8 million when he brilliantly won Saturday's St George Stakes (1800m) at Caulfield, looked in top order yesterday.

He is nominal favourite for the $1.25 million Australian Cup (2000m) at Flemington on March 10.

If Northerly tackles the Futurity, classy WA sprinter Old Fashion will be among his rivals. Old Fashion is booked to be flown from Perth tonight and his trainer, Vernon Brockman, has engaged Stephen Miller to ride the Railway Stakes winner on Saturday.

Kersley said yesterday he had added the Futurity to his options in the Australian Cup lead-up because he was worried that Northerly might not be at peak fitness for the rich Flemington race.

The trainer said after the St George Stakes that his star would be nominated for Saturday's $100,000 Victoria Gold Cup over 2000m, a distance which would suit Northerly's program leading to the Australian Cup.

Kersley's consideration of the Futurity Stakes comes as a surprise because stayers rarely switch back to a sprint when heading to a major middle-distance race.

"There is a risk Northerly wouldn't be in peak form at Australian Cup time if he did not start in the previous 16 days," Kersley said yesterday.

"I now consider we have three options in the next fortnight. The Victoria Gold Cup is a handicap over the right distance. It has a 60kg maximum but rivals will have light weights and Northerly is no longer suited by handicaps.

"The Futurity is probably too short for him to be a strong winning prospect but the race has weight-for-age conditions that are ideal for him.

"Our third option is to give him solid trackwork to ensure he's fully fit on Australian Cup day. We'll decide on Wednesday or Thursday morning whether he races at Caulfield again next Saturday."

Northerly, a winner at 13 of his 18 Melbourne starts, delighted Kersley in the St George Stakes. "He was fully tested by Field Of Omagh's challenge to the 200m post but then went to the line with something in reserve," the trainer said.

"Northerly was not stressed by the race and has benefited from it. He pulled up without cuts or bruises."

Reported in this morning's press that there is still a strong chance that Northerly will run at Caulfield on Saturday in the Futurity Stakes (1400m) or Victoria Gold Cup (2020m).

Kersley will not decide which race to target until after handicaps are declared.

Kersley at this stage is leaning towards the Gold Cup, which has a maximum handicap of 60kg.

Kersley is concerned of the 16-day gap to the Australian Cup, last year there were only nine days between the St George Stakes and the Australian Cup.

thats it magoo, when northerly raced in his first few lead up races last spring i tried to find something which could beat it and lost every time. come caulfield cup day i wasn't falling for that again and he won me some money that day and also cox plate day, the things a dead set freak, dare i say, UNBEATABLE when fit and over the right distance

Caulfield Saturday - VICTORIA GOLD CUP 2020M - Weights

1 NORTHERLY Fred Kersley 60
2 GUNNAMATTA Tony Noonan 52
3 MR. CASANOVA Colin Alderson 52
4 LORD ARDSLEY (NZ) Doug Harrison 51
5 ARENA VALADORA David Hall 51
6 CONSULAR Peter Morgan 51
7 MR. TRICKSTER Mick Price 51
8 LADY KNOCKOUT Tony McEvoy 51
9 GUSSY GODIVA (NZ) Brian Mayfield-Smith 51
10 GALLIC (NZ) Bradley Marzato 51


_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-02-25 18:58 ]

Caulfield Saturday - FUTURITY STAKES 1400M - Nominations

1 NORTHERLY Fred Kersley 1 58
2 OLD FASHION V A Brockman 4 58
3 TIT FOR TAAT (NZ) Wayne Herbert 6 58
4 AQUIVER John Hawkes 7 58
5 EMISSION Cliff Brown 9 58
6 VIKING RULER Clarry Conners 11 58
7 MR. MAGOO James Riley 12 58
8 EL NINO Tony McEvoy 15 58
9 ROMAN ARCH Robbie Laing 16 58
10 CHOISIR Paul Perry 2 55
11 YELL John Hawkes 5 55
12 TITANIC JACK Tom Hughes (Jnr) 13 55
13 TYCOON RULER Jim Marconi 14 55
14 INNOVATION GIRL Brian Mayfield-Smith 3 52.5
15 BRIEF EMBRACE Peter G Moody 8 52.5
16 LA BELLA DAME Mick Price 10 52.5



_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-02-25 19:01 ]

That would have to be the lightest weight Lady Knockout (51kg) has lumped and should be right in the finish. Thanks for the info, Sandgroper.

LADY KNOCKOUT must be some chance of filling a place, Magoo. Given Northerly is still to reach peak form, I expect GUNNAMATTA and MR. CASANOVA to give the champ a run for his money.

Courtesy The West Australian website:

Heavyweight jockey Patrick Payne retains the ride on Northerly in the Victoria Gold Cup , Northerly has the maximum limit topweight of 60kg.

Kersley said Heavy Nova, a first-up third at Sandown, would be ridden by Carbery in the Carlyon Cup, a race Northerly won two years ago on his climb to stardom.

He said the 2020m of the Victoria Gold Cup was an ideal step up from the 1800m of last week's St George Stakes in which Northerly trounced arch rival Fields of Omagh.

Although Northerly meets inferior horses to Fields Of Omagh on Saturday, Kersley is mindful of the big weight difference between Northerly and his rivals, a factor which cost him several Perth races.

The final field has fallen away a bit, and MR. CASANOVA is not starting, Paddy.

No. Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight
1 NORTHERLY Fred Kersley P Payne 4 60
2 GUNNAMATTA Tony Noonan R Wheeler (a) 1 52
3 GUSSY GODIVA (NZ) Brian Mayfield-Smith S Baster 6 51
4 LADY KNOCKOUT Tony McEvoy R McLeod 5 51
5 LORD ARDSLEY (NZ) Doug Harrison W Davis 2 51
6 MR. TRICKSTER Mick Price C Newitt (a) 3 51


_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-02-27 13:52 ]

Courtesy The Age website:

Just a week ago, Caulfield trainer Mick Price said he now felt comfortable mixing it with racing's big names, but Price yesterday admitted to being embarrassed and numb after his galloper Mr Trickster claimed the biggest scalp in Australasia by outgunning Northerly in the listed Victoria Gold Cup (2020m) at Caulfield.

While obviously delighted with the upset win, which followed his winning treble on Blue Diamond Stakes day last weekend, Price was stuck for words.

"What do you say? It was a funny race and a fluke result happened. I really don't know how it happened, but I'll take it," Price said.

A fluke it may have been but Price revealed that he and apprentice rider Craig Newitt had decided before the race that as Mr Trickster would carry nine kilograms less than Northerly yesterday, they would make the champion earn victory.

"Our plan was to get out and lead and make him win the race. I thought he would, but my bloke just stuck on and the unbelievable happened," Price said

"It's a bit embarrassing, to tell you the truth."
Mr Trickster ($9) sped away in the straight and then held Northerly ($1.30), who rallied late, by three-quarters of a length. Mornington Cup winner Gunnamatta ($8) was three lengths away third.

Northerly's trainer Fred Kersley said he felt that Northerly had faltered on the track as heavy rain fell before the race, making the surface slippery.

Jockey Patrick Payne said he knew as far out as 700 metres from home that the champion would struggle to win.

"He did slip a few times near the home turn but all credit to the winner," Payne said. "He made us carry our weight (60 kilograms) and we were never really travelling well enough to get to him.

"But he still ran pretty well. When he slipped, it took a bit of confidence out of him as he couldn't really dig into the track," Payne said.

"The last 200 metres was good, though and, I'd have to say, he is still well and truly on track for the Australian Cup."

In 2001, Northerly was beaten in the Victoria Gold Cup by an unknown called Greenstone Charm, but it is a fair bet that more will be heard of Mr Trickster.

The four-year-old gelding yesterday took his earnings to more than $200,000 at his 17th start yesterday.

Mr Trickster had a severe leg injury as a three-year-old when he was shaping as a most promising stayer but Price said he was ready yesterday to test the galloper fully.

Mr Trickster is now likely to go to the autumn carnivals in either Sydney or Brisbane, with Price eyeing a group race success.

An interested onlooker yesterday was trainer Tony McEvoy, whose best galloper, Fields Of Omagh, has chased Northerly unsuccessfully since last spring.

"It shows it can happen," McEvoy said of the upset.

"If only it would happen to us," he added.

I see the knives already out for the champ,talk like Lonhro's time has come etc., the positive out of yesterday I guess is that Fred now knows what work there is to be done before the Australian Cup, also considering the Sydney/International campaign ahead and his pattern of last prep. especially, he's not at his peak this early.
Maybe also Payne won't ride such a pretty race in future.
Hoping for a good-fast track on March 10th.

I fail to see why a jockey of Payne's ability did not take Northerly to the lead and set his own pace.In a field of 6 and giving away so much weight,the only possible way he could have lost was the way he did,chasing a lightweight frontrunner who made him carry his weight.I note with interest that Mick Price worked this out,why couldn't Fred and Paddy?I also note that Paddy said he was slipping in the slippery ground,and doubted that he could win at the 700 metre mark,so why didn't he make a forward move earlier?I realise that Northerly is not a noted frontrunner,but surely in a field of 6 with 60kgs,wouldn't it have been a smarter move to lead,and make the lightweights try to run him down?I doubt that any of them would have,including the winner,who basically has to lead to win,as shown in his past performances.Maybe Fred and Paddy got to carried away with all the accolades in the press,and thought they only had to go around to win,no matter where he was ridden!I just hope it has brought both of them back to earth.Northerly is a champion,and will no doubt win a lot more races,but he'll also lose more than he should if ridden like that again.I would like to see Greg Childs,Corey Brown or Chri Munce on his back!

working on times northerly had the worst time performance last start leading into this race.
he gave mr. trickster 8 lengths on times.
i didnt tip him. i didnt back him and i think his run was very good.

i would say he could have used a harder run in the st george but running in small fields doesnt often smarten them up enough particularly as his weight was high and he was giving a fair bit away.
as i said i think it was a good run.

Courtesy The West Australian website:

Champion galloper Northerly, a shock loser on Saturday, cannot be faulted and connections are confident he will bounce back to win next Monday's $1.25 million Australian Cup at Flemington.

The gelding was among several fancies who failed to handle slippery conditions at Saturday's Caulfield meeting when he ran second with 60kg in the Victoria Gold Cup.

"It was also a case of him again being vulnerable in handicaps," trainer Fred Kersley said.

Northerly, a winner 11 times in 15 weight-for-age races, has been beaten at five of his past seven starts under handicap conditions.

Kersley indicated yesterday his confidence in the $8 million stake-earner had not been dented. The trainer inspected stables in Sydney and confirmed Northerly's NSW autumn carnival program.

"I've looked at Rosehill, Warwick Farm and Canterbury facilities, searching for the best place to stable Northerly when he comes here," Kersley said. "He will be based at Rosehill, the venue for his first two Sydney races."

Northerly is scheduled to run in the $400,000 Ranvet Stakes (2000m) on March 29 and the $2 million BMW (2400m) a fortnight later.

I'm now awaiting the"post mortum"(spelling),on the race,would of had to be a watch only with the price $1.20 a win,small field,& not one mention of the winner in the prepost washup from you lot,great horse but jeeze all the hype!!,to tell the truth I got more enjoyment(& money$2.20)from a 9 length winner at Toowoomba on Sat than the "big" race.But what would I know only being a mug.Better punting to you all.Touchy,><>.

Angel,

You do't think that to Fred this was only a glorified track gallop with no real concern whether Northerly won or not? I suspect he only wanted to give him a hit-out.
Agreed, he had to go back in distance from his previous run but "champions" can do this. Kingston Town was able to mix distances against top quality opposition and still win.
It is open to conjecture whether Northerly is in "the King's" class.
I was wary of this race as I thought it may turn out as it did. As we say in punting circles, it was a potential "wealth hazard" although, at $1.10 place tote, it was better than you can get at any bank(btbi.....better than bank interest).

heers.

Xanadu,I'm not suggesting that Northerly wasn't trying,I would just have liked to have seen him ridden a bit more aggressively.Because of the fact that Paddy Payne sat and sat,even though he later admitted Northerly wasn't comfortable on the slippery surface,did they think that it was a lay down misere,no matter how the race was run?He had a soft win the start before,so I don't think he is anywhwere near fit,and the Australian Cup,plus WFA races in Sydney are obviously the races he has been set for.I don't think that Greg Childs would have sat there like that on Sunline!I know that comparisons are odious,but Northerly would have to show me a lot more before I would put him in Kingston Town or Sunline's class!He does mix his distances,but not with the same degree of success as the other two.Maybe he is strictly WFA performer?As a previous poster pointed out,he has been beaten in 5 out of his last 7 handicap events.As for you being a mug Touchy,I don't think so!Much smarter to do what you did than follow the hype and take the skinny odds.I know I didn't,and never will.Follow the old late and great Ken Howard adage,"never bet odds on,never run up steps!".Words of wisdom if ever I've heard any.Cheers

Angel,

Firstly, if Northerly wasn't fit don't you think the stewards are culpable for letting the trainer present a horse for racing when he is not at his best?
Secondly, some punters steer away from odds-on betting and this is good for me as on some occasions I may have assessed a runner as a 1/10 prospect and have been able to secure 4/5 or evens thereby achieving a favourable percentage advantage(arbitrage transaction). More precisely, if I can get a significant percentage overlay regularly then this increases the prospects of maintaining a long-term winning strategy. I stress here that I certainly do not bet exclusively on short-priced runners as I usually seek out any value on offer. However, when the opportunity presents itself I will invest heavily on the short priced runner offering a significant percentage overlay.

See ya buddy.

Xanadu,thanks for the reply old mate,always good to hear from you.As for stewards being "culpable"as you so succintly put it,well that's another topic of discussion.I don't really want to open a can of worms here,but how many times can you look at a race and eliminate certain runners from contention because it is only going around to get race fitness?Prime example:Bart Cummings has stated how many miles he has to get into a stayers legs in preparation for a Melbourne Cup.So for instance,if Rogan Josh began it's preparation for a Cup stint in a 1000metre sprint,what chance would give it of winning?None.But do the stewards tell Bart it can't go around because it is not fit?No.I gues it's just part of the racing game,and being able to assess the ones that can't win that enables us to keep our nose in front.I'm not saying that Northerly wasn't fit,what I am saying is that I don't think he was 100% fit,as he is being aimed at far richer plums than the race he contested on Saturday.I'm also sure that wilet mentor would have told Paddy Payne not to knock him about too much if he didn't think he could win at the 500 metre mark.As for taking shorts,I see your point in the way you approach it with your own assessments,but I myself will NEVER bet odds on.My own cutoff point is 6/4.
Cheers mate,talk to ya soon
P.S.
Have you been "dutching" the leading stables runners as I suggested?I got Laguna Lake atgood odds,did you have anything on it?

No, unfortunately I didn't but I can recommend our fellow forum subscribers that they monitor this angle.

Another method which estimates whether a horse is fit or unfit to race is the bloodcount on the morning of the race, or more practical, the day before, and duly reported in the press. So what...., it may cost more to do so , which will inevitably be passed on to we the punters, but it may also prevent us backing losers on which we placed speculative bets , believing they were fit for racing.
I am very adamant about this subject as I believe that it tells you whether class horses coming back early in their preparation are fit and ready to contest the race in question.

Top o' the mornin' to you Paddy!

Your point in an earlier post regarding Northerly's history in handicap races is very valid and it confirms that the betting public maybe should have shied away from this race.

Good to ye!

AUSTRALIAN CUP - 2000m

No. Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight
1 NORTHERLY Fred Kersley P Payne 8 58
2 DON EDUARDO (NZ) Lee Freedman D Oliver 4 58
3 FIELDS OF OMAGH Tony McEvoy G Childs 3 58
4 DISTINCTLY SECRET (NZ) Mark Walker Steven King 6 58
5 MR. TRICKSTER Mick Price N Callow 7 58
6 BORELLI (NZ) Robbie Laing 2 58
7 OSCA ERIC Gary Farrell D Nikolic 1 58
8 NATURAL BLITZ Doug Harrison C Williams 5 53.5



Looks a very disappointing field to me.

NORTHERLY to reign supreme.

I’ll be coupling with FIELDS OF OMAGH, DISTINCTLY SECRET, NATURAL BLITZ and DON EDUARDO in the multiples.

fields of omah to win if northerly doesnt see it, the only way to beat it is if he doesnt know ya there otherwise northerly all the way. big quinella tip. two horse race

06 AUSTRALIAN CUP
2000 Metres
2:45pm


WIN/PLACE
1 1.60 1.20
8...............3.00
2.............N.T.D.

QUINELLA (1-8) 6.20
EXACTA (1-8) 9.60
TRIFECTA
(1-8-2) 54.50
FIRST 4
(1-8-2-5) 228.40

(1) NORTHERLY (PATRICK PAYNE)
(8) NATURAL BLITZ (C.WILLIAMS)
(2) DON EDUARDO (DAMIEN OLIVER)

SCR - 6

Courtesy Thoroughbred News website:

The champion racehorse Northerly stood up to be counted on today and he did so in most impressive fashion by thrashing the field in the $A1.25m, Group 1, Australian Cup, WFA, 2000m by four lengths.

Northerly (Serheed-North Bell, by Bellwater) was beaten in his last start in the Victoria Gold Cup at Caulfield under a big weight but it was back to weight-for-age conditions at Flemington. Jockey Patrick Payne was taking no prisoners right from the barriers opening. Payne took the six-year-old to the lead and set a tempo that dictated to the field exactly what they would have to do to be better. Don Eduardo (NZ) came alongside as they cruised past the 900m mark and he then tracked Northerly to the entrance to the straight.

Payne quickened and Northerly was just idling waiting to go faster. Don Eduardo was burnt off and then Payne pressed the pedal. With his head held high Northerly showed a wonderful turn of foot and he was two lengths clear, three lengths and then four as the post went past. It was a galloping exhibition that was of the highest order and worthy of the Group 1 win.

The three-year-old Natural Blitz carrying 53.5kg went past Don Eduardo for second by a long head who faltered just 100m from the post after trying hard for the distance and taking the race to the champion. Mr Trickster was fourth, Fields Of Omagh a disappointing fifth and Distinctly Secret sixth. The time was 2.01.47, the last 600 in 34.84.

This remarkable horse was running his 31st race and he has won 19 of them, placed in another seven and taken his prize money to $A8,855,950. Sydney now beckons and the $A400,000, Group 1, Ranvet Stakes, 2000m at Rosehill on March 29th, 2003.

Fields Of Omagh was found to be sore in the foreleg after the race and waiting on reports as to the extent of the injury.

I'm hoping it's not the same leg as injured before,otherwise could be out for quite some time or even retired.

Kudos to the champ Northerly though, who ran a magnificent race and won like a true Champion.

Only goes to prove my point.....why did Patrick Payne not take Northerly to the front the start before????? Where was Mr Trickster today,when he could not dictate his own terms in front????? Where would he have been laststart,if Northerly had led?????Too many unanswered questions for my liking.Why didn't the stewards query Payne's tactics the start before?No doubt if they had,would have told that Northerly is a better horse ridden from behind the pace.Where would that theory have stood after today' debacle?????? I rest my case.

Angel416 ,

Agree with you about Paddy Payne not taking Northerly closer to Mr Trickster the start before , but i think the weight might have been the difference in this race not the positioning of both horses in yesterdays race.

too true testarossa. youve hit the nail right on the head there. id say they were using the gold cup as a barrier trial of the aussie cup, i know which one id prefer win

Courtesy The West Australian website:

Northerly, who has thrived since boosting his stake-earnings to $8.8 million by brilliantly winning last Monday's Australian Cup at Flemington, will be flown from Melbourne to Sydney tonight.

He worked clockwise over 1800m for jockey Patrick Payne at Caulfield on Saturday morning.

"We are due to fly out at 7pm and he should be at his Warwick Farm stable within 2½ hours," Kersley said.

Northerly will contest Saturday week's $400,000 Ranvet Stakes (2000m) and the $2 million BMW (2400m) on April 12.