Staking question - What would you do
 

I have made it to the final 35 of the last man spring tipping comp which leaves me with a few interesting problems.

At the moment if everyone picked the same horse we would win 50,000/35 = $1428 each.

Now assuming that not all 35 people pick the same horse in the Emiriate Stakes on Saturday that number should increase. Effectively though I thought I could take advantage of this for a win-win situation.

I am likely to tip Jimmy Choux.

Should I bet every other winner to make a profit. Right now if I was take the bet on betfair with the current odds I would have to outlay of $1368 which would be terrible. But not all 20 horses will be tipped. I suspect out of the 35 tipsters only 5-6 horses will be tipped. If no one tips the winner I would win the $1428. This means that the outlay would reduce significantly. I'll probably have to outlay 1100 - 1200 for several hundred profit at a minimum.

I will know the exact amount I can win by the first Flemington race on Saturday. I will also knopw how much I need to outlay.

I am interested in peoples thoughts on whether they would hedge the profit or just go for the win on the tipping comp?

What is jimmy's lay price right now, i can't find the market.

Ok found the market, his lay is 7 at some point before the race are you able to work out what the return will be based on selections?

Shaun,

I'll know the exact amount on Saturday at about midday. My thinking is It will be $200-$300 if I incorrectly tip in the comp and place the bets. It will be $1428 or higher if I go for the competition only and get it correct, It will be 0 if I get it wrong though.

I'll post the exact prices on Saturday though and what my decision is.

It should also be remembered I don't need to bet every horse as if no one tips a horse I effectively have it running for me in the comp as well. Looking at it I reckon a maximum of 7 horses will be tipped from the 35 people left. So I only need to bet the 6 other horses which are tipped by others and not me.

oops no that is wrong.

Sorry didn't read your post correctly, i would wait and lay jimmy with the correct amount to make profit win or loss.

I did a calc on the current odds and return

You can lay 204 @7 for a profit 203/193.80

The smaller amount on the right takes in to account commission if he losses.

But i would wait until you know your returns and the lay price comes in, if you need an excel sheet to just put in the amounts and it will work out results let me know.

Shaun, great suggestion.

I could also lay all the horses not tipped in the comp increasing my return if I want to.

Thanks for the advice.

I may not understand the comp, what happens if no one picks the winner, do you split the 50k.

If you plan to lay off your bet i would make my selections the shortest price horse, sure others will pick it but the lay odds will be in line with it's chances.

If you choose something at 25s it could blow out to 40s on the lay side and you could end up with less, greening up will always cost you, it is hard knowing your selection will return say 2k if it wins but you can only green for $300 to $400 but you know that is a secure bet.

Yep. $1428 if no one picks the winner. It will be larger if I pick the winner and there are fewer then 35 people who also pick it (which there will be).

I'm doing the form now and already am waivering from Jimmy Choux and looking at Love Conquers All instead. Still need to watch the videos but I think the barrier(13) and weight(top weight) are a disadvantage to jimmy choux.

Since you won't know what you can get for your selection until after you have selected it then it is more of just make your selection then get the most you can when you know.

But don't go to high on price as you don't want to much on the liability side.

Shaun,

Thanks for the advice. It has made a lot of sense and I'll probably be tipping one of the 2 favourites in the race (Jimmy Choux or Love conquers all).

I've decided to go for the big win.

The horse I have selected is not in the top few in the experts tips for the race (its not Jimmy Choux, Love Conquers All, Secret Admirer or Kings Rose).

I believe I have a reasonable chance with this horse (15%- 20% confidence level) due to the rail being out 9 metres.

I believe there will only be maybe 1 or 2 other people pick this horse if any at all. This means I could have it racing for me for $16K - $25K. I can't lay that amount on betfair (don't have the funds) but will lay what I can so that even if it loses I will have won something.

I'll update the selection when the tipping comp closes its seleciton period which is at midday.

You wouldn't need to lay that much on betfair, you are laying the difference between the liability and the profit.

I can understand why you want to go for the big win because these things don't come around very often, i will upload a sheet you can input the details to work out the lay amount, just so you know your options and don't need to give away the runner.

This file is designed for your situation.

I am on Testa My PAtience .. I am surprised there are 10 people on it.

So possible win is 5K.

You could make around 450 if you wanted, maybe the price will come down and you could make more.

The guy on 4. Love Conquers All is in a good situation, going for 50k but could make 5k win or lose if he had 5k to lay on it.

I thought love conquers all would have more people tip it. I would have gladly tipped it for 25K.

Bit disappointed in 10 people taking the same selection as me.

Yes a bit, Jimmy would have been worth about 1k w/L

I layed to lose $1000 and ended up getting $80 after commission.

But more importantly no one tipped Albert the fat. So I also won the tipping comp (with 34 others) so we share the prize which is $1428 each.

Not a bad day when you make a little over $1500 with no risk.

worked out well for you that no one tipped the winner than.