Ratings
 

Gday

What would be the best free ratings available??

Thanks

These are backing results using betfair prices. Results are from my website and cover from Aug till yesterday:

Unitab ratings return :

There were 3407 selections for the System
There were 788 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 23.13%
There were $3106.41 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $-300.59 or a percentage profit/loss of -8.82%

Neural ratings(default setting):

There were 2825 selections for the System
There were 645 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 22.83%
There were $2506.21 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $-318.79 or a percentage profit/loss of -11.28%


Don Scott Rating(default setting):

There were 3103 selections for the System
There were 740 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 23.85%
There were $3054.68 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $-48.32 or a percentage profit/loss of -1.56%

Top Place Strike Rate (> 0%):

There were 3303 selections for the System
There were 764 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 23.13%
There were $3156.35 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $-146.65 or a percentage profit/loss of -4.44%

Top Win Strike Rate (> 0%) :

There were 2361 selections for the System
There were 522 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 22.11%
There were $2500.01 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $139.01 or a percentage profit/loss of 5.89%


Top API Rank (included place strike rate >0% to remove poor races):

There were 2098 selections for the System
There were 478 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 22.78%
There were $1836.11 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $-261.89 or a percentage profit/loss of -12.48%


So based on the results of my website (which are betfair results) you would be worthwhile looking at horses with the top win % and/or top top don scott rater. Even the top Place strike rate is not a bad return for no other filters.

[QUOTE=UselessBettor]These are backing results using betfair prices. Results are from my website and cover from Aug till yesterday:

Unitab ratings return :

There were 3407 selections for the System
There were 788 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 23.13%
There were $3106.41 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $-300.59 or a percentage profit/loss of -8.82%

Neural ratings(default setting):

There were 2825 selections for the System
There were 645 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 22.83%
There were $2506.21 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $-318.79 or a percentage profit/loss of -11.28%


Don Scott Rating(default setting):

There were 3103 selections for the System
There were 740 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 23.85%
There were $3054.68 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $-48.32 or a percentage profit/loss of -1.56%

Top Place Strike Rate (> 0%):

There were 3303 selections for the System
There were 764 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 23.13%
There were $3156.35 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $-146.65 or a percentage profit/loss of -4.44%

Top Win Strike Rate (> 0%) :

There were 2361 selections for the System
There were 522 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 22.11%
There were $2500.01 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $139.01 or a percentage profit/loss of 5.89%


Top API Rank (included place strike rate >0% to remove poor races):

There were 2098 selections for the System
There were 478 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 22.78%
There were $1836.11 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $-261.89 or a percentage profit/loss of -12.48%


So based on the results of my website (which are betfair results) you would be worthwhile looking at horses with the top win % and/or top top don scott rater. Even the top Place strike rate is not a bad return for no other filters.

Gday Uselessbetor

Thanks for all the info, is there a site where Don Scott ratings are freely available?

Thanks

They are available at racing and sports website.

Gday Uselessbettor

On racing and sports site are the ratings the neurals or the worksheet?

Thanks for your replys

Its the worksheet. The don scott ratings are the FR column.

James I just use the r+s Asessed prices.

Unitab is another excellent source of ratings but without the asessed prices.

From my experience these 2 are the best free ratings in the business.

Cheers
darky

Thanks UselessBettor and Darky

Gday Darky

R&S assessed prices - are they the DIV column on the worksheet?
People talk of looking for value is an example of value when DIV on the worksheet page = $4.00 and the TAB odds for that horse are $5.00?

Thanks

James

Hi James,
Yes.Exactly that.

Cheers
darky

Where do you find the default setting Don Scott ratings?

I can see the best recent rating,the best rating of the last 12 month and the assesed price, is there something else or is the default the best recent rating?

FR column is the final Don Scott Rating. If you don't change any of the figures then this is the default rating.

Thanks Useless bettor.

Only stands to reason those results can be improved. Was wondering what the expected return on the highest Final Ratings would be if one just bet on the TAB.

I expect perhaps a 10% loss?

I can only give you the betfair return after 5% commission. It is :

There were 34655 horse form lines in the database at this point in time.
There were 3261 selections for the System
There were 777 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 23.83%
There were $3178.27 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $-82.73 or a percentage profit/loss of -2.54%
Test Another System
The Rules used were : donScottRank = 1



They can be improved fairly easy. Try those with the highest win strike rate:

There were 1379 selections for the System
There were 426 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 30.89%
There were $1425.9 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $46.9 or a percentage profit/loss of 3.4%
Test Another System
The Rules used were : donScottRank = 1 and winSrRank = 1


Or just bet on the value bets usign a wide barrier filter:

There were 1341 selections for the System
There were 319 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 23.79%
There were $1427.52 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $86.52 or a percentage profit/loss of 6.45%
Test Another System
The Rules used were : barrier >= 7 and donScottRank = 1

Away from the final rating an angle that crossed my mind is the highest total rating if you add the best 12 month rating to the best recent rating.

Try this on the second rated, I have no definite results but by looking at them daily it seems to be better than the top rated specially for the place?

Try this one guys. All the 1's

Don Scott number 1
Last start finished 1
Career starts 11 or more
Runners 11 or more


There were 165 selections for the System
There were 37 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 22.42%
There were $211.76 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $46.76 or a percentage profit/loss of 28.34%

The Rules used were : lastStart = 1 and donScottRank = 1 and careerRaces >= 11 and runners >= 11

Well done Dale.

mmmm ....not sure sure of those results.
i tested on some other data - going back to February 2011 and using tattsbet dividends and got :

starters 1089
winners187
win loss 200
% win loss -18%
on 3-11-2011 i got these selections:
EAGLE FARM Mr Favulous 0/4.7
EAGLE FARM Carry Me Bluey 0/1.2
KEMBLA Etype 0/0
ELLERSLIE Undisclosed 0/0

has anyone else tested ?

Hi Aussielongboat,

Your results could be accurate, as Uselessbettor's records started from August. Perhaps the 1's have had a purple patch since then?

I haven't tested the selections myself.

The Schmile

I tried that also and they came up similar to the over all result - i.e. a loss of around 20% loss on turnover

can you run through what you have - because - hey - maybe my data is incorrect.

I got...

24%SR
32% POT

We changed field size to 11-14 runners
All the rest the same.

There were 161 selections for the System
There were 38 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 23.6%
There were $214.57 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $53.57 or a percentage profit/loss of 33.27%

Test Another System

The Rules used were : lastStart = 1 and donScottRank = 1 and careerRaces >= 11 and runners >= 11 and runners <=14

for clarification:
I wasn't using UB's data - i was using my own independently.
i was just asking if someone else had some independent data to see if they got a similar result to mine.


cheers
aussie

Hi aussie, what is meant by "Don Scott number 1"?

Rated as the first in what category?
Or by Tab number?

Thanks

Hi lomaca

(Don Scott Ranking based on defaults from Racing and Sports Website)

yep - that's right - the first one in the DS rankings.

cheers
aussie

I don't know what's happening but I can't even get near enough to the results you guys were getting.

Let's make the rules crystal clear;

First I selected all the races where there were more than 11 runners
after scratching.

Then selected Don Sct top rated. meaning I selected the lowest "DIV" thinking that it's the "top rated"

If this horse was also tab number 1 then I looked if it finished first at its last start and if it did then I looked if it had at least 11 carrier starts.

Complied with all of this, then I looked at the results to see if it won or placed.

For this year I only had 81 qualifiers for 16 winners and 37 for the place (1-2-3).

Win loss -29.9 place loss -18.4

The only way I could get the qualifying numbers close to what you guys got, if I selected ALL the horses with Tab number 1, regardless where it was in the ranking, all other rules complied with of course.

It is disturbing in serious way, I don't mind being wrong but if we can't get these results within a ballpark of each other then what and who's research-results can we trust?

Cheers

Iomaca,

rules were:

The Rules used were : lastStart = 1 and donScottRank = 1 and careerRaces >= 11 and runners >= 11 and runners <=14


No TAB Number 1. Its any TAB number. That should open your results a bit.

All the above but any TAB number:

Qual: 646 won 123, placed 270
win loss -87.1 Place loss -86.7

Still far from being a winner, I used NSW dividends, can't be that much of a difference can it?

It varies and is hard to say because you might get double the price about a $10 chance but only 5% on a short priced selection. The standard most people use is 15% though to get a rough idea which would have returned 642.74 so almost breakeven on your figures.

Sorry that was for >= 11 runners no upper limit but the rest of the rules as stated.

With runners between >= 11 and <= 14

Qual: 370 won 74 , placed 168
win loss -72.3 Place loss -47.4

slightly better S/R

yeah your results are similar to mine

that's why i was surprised when the other post was talking about these glorious returns.

it seemed too simple and too good to be true.

and hey
guess what..
you know the rest

lomaca

May or may not be important but I noticed in one of your posts you said more than 11 starters.

My original rules call for 11 starters or more and 11 career starts or more.

Not more than 11.

With more updates added to data
I got...

22% SR
24% POT

Av price $5.64

RULES
Don Scott 1
LS 1
Career Starts => 11
Runners 11-14

There were 173 selections for the System
There were 38 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 21.97%
There were $214.57 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $41.57 or a percentage profit/loss of 24.03%

The Rules used were : lastStart = 1 and donScottRank = 1 and careerRaces >= 11 and runners >= 11 and runners <=14

If using TAB prices , one would have to work out what the average price was for that sample then compare that to the average Betfair price sample.

The Betfair price will always have the higher average price even after coms.

It is very challenging trying to find systems that show a profit using TAB divs.
Betfair prices can make a huge difference to results.

There will be many examples of horses showing say $6.00 the win on TAB & $13.00 on Betfair.

If one jags just a couple of these , it makes a huge difference to the average price for that sample.

I feel the main reason why there is a big difference in results ,is that there is a big difference in the rules being applied.

Therefore different result.

For instance
TAB No.1
Why was this applied?
That was not in the rules

11+ careers starts.
Appears to have been totally left out.

LS 1 (Won Last Start)
This also appears to have been totally left out.

So in total , there where only 4 simple rules and half where left out.
Then say it don't work.


This is a good example why folk out there should not worry about sharing systems , because they are nearly always changed.
I do that myself , all the time , rightly or wrongly, even with this one.

Website
 

Gday Uselessbettor

On your website how would I find the results of the top 4 rated Neurals-Don SCott and Unitab Strike rates?
For example using the top 4 rated neurals - how many winners?
Thanks
James

James,

depends on what you want. You could do them individually which would give you the most accurate result. So do it for Neural Rank =1 then neural Rank =2, etc. then do it for the others.

You could also get an approx by doing Neural Rank = 1 to get the number of races (which would be the number of selections as very few would be dual top selections). Then just do the Neural Rank between 1 and 4 and it will give you the total number of winners. Divide one by the other and you will have a good approx of the strike rate.

I hope that makes sense.

Thanks UselessBettor