|
System of the Year For 2011.
Goes to Baghwans "LAY" method
<1010 M 1st or 2nd LS Congratulations Brian. Cheers darky |
Im not saying its a bad system but my results show it loses ?
There were 38142 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time. There were 822 selections for the System There were 674 which Lost (did not win race) for the System for a strike rate of 82% You had to pay out $875.64 but brought in $780.9 after 5% commission. This means a Profit or loss of $-94.74 or a percentage profit/loss of -11.53% Test Another System The Rules used were : distance < 1010 and lastStart >= 1 and lastStart <=2 Are you sure there are not more filters ? |
No .Thats the complete rules.
As far as Lay systems with rules given out This one wins hands down. The thing I like particularly is the simplicity of the rules.(A asset to any great mechanical method) Cheers darky |
No .Thats the complete rules.
As far as Lay systems with rules given out This one wins hands down. The thing I like particularly is the simplicity of the rules.(A asset to any great mechanical method) Cheers darky |
Hi UB,
When are you going to update your database? Cheers, Bernie |
Last updated date was 29th November. I update it every couple of days.
Its up to 38,142 form lines now which come from 3884 races. Thats not a bad sample to do some inital testing on systems. If you check back through systems I have posted on this forum you will see the form lines number increasing. |
Thanks for that UB.
I'm sure we all appreciate the time and effort you have put into your system tester. Cheers, Bernie |
2/2 successes today as usual.
|
Quote:
|
Quote:
Today Seymour Race 5. 6 runners 1st or second last start SEYMOUR 5 Mitchelton Wines Hcp (62) $15,000 1000m Restricted 62 API:1.93 3:20 pm TAB 1 2x4x1 Houfu 5 (Gwenda Johnstone) Damien Thornton (a3) 58.5 2 06251 Kid Kobe 8 (John Mcardle) Danny Nikolic 57.5 3 7260x Sunday Psalm 3 (Dan O'Sullivan) Thomas Sadler (a3) 57.5 4 x421x Constant Rhythm 2 (Michael Hibbs) Brad Rawiller 57.0 5 31 Love My Dad 9 (Ern Ewert (JNR)) Luke Currie 6 6x1 Empress Zakynthos 7 (Mandy Shillito) James Winks 7 0x940 Delon 4 (Eileen Plant) Lisa Cropp 8 x0584 Vixenite 1 (Ern Ewert (JNR)) Jarrod Todd 9 9x402 Foreign Christmas 6 (Michael Farrant) Tash Burleigh Hawkesbury Race 3. 5 runners 1st or 2nd last start. HAWKESBURY 3 Wideline Windows-Gwa (BM60) $16,000 1000m DEAD 5 Benchmark 60 API:3.2 1:50 pm TAB 1 2361x Earnest Ernest 6 (Joseph Pride) Peter Robl 2 1527x Drop Of Magic 10 (Mick Van Gestel) Ben Vassallo 3 1358x Monolith Miss - (Angela Davies) Christian Reith 4 1x5 General Sherman 9 (Garry White) Chad Schofield (a2) 5 x251x Aerdash 2 (Rodney Bailey) Terry Jones 6 85419 Green With Envy 8 (Kristen Buchanan) Jay Ford 7 11 Our Canny Boy 5 (Darryl Ryan) Greg Ryan 8 61282 Expatriate 4 (Natalie Jarvis) Ms C Pettigrew (a3) 9 5x1x2 Just Like Zac 7 (Robert Brooke) Tony Cavallo 10 6529x Alberio 3 (Malcolm Johnston) S Clipperton (a2) 11 176x In High Spirits 1 (Don Robb) A Hyeronimus That is 11 runners first or second last start. Both races under 1010. How do you get 2 from 2 ?????? Enjay |
Hi Enjay,
I believe the system is start from horse no. 1 and work your way down the field until you find a horse that ran 1st or second last start. Only one selection per race. Today's results: Seymour 5 - Houfu 2nd Hawkesbury 3 - Earnest Ernest unpl The Schmile |
Thanks for that Schmile. Obviously I did not go back and look at the original post.
Enjay |
Bah Humbug to this nomination for system of the year. I posted a system about improvers which comes up the goods but I don't have any friends to nominate mine for system of the year, so in true yuletide spirit "the pox on all your christmas stockings" .....
|
Sorry.I forgot that important rule
From the Top down Selection must have placed 1 or 2 Distance ONLY <1010 |
Sorry, I can't see how this is a winning lay system.
You are targeting the best horses to lay. It probably came about because the top horses are overbet on the tote, but they aren't on betfair, where you are laying them. It's a 25.29% win strike rate at all odds, the more fancied the runner is, the higher the strike rate. For favourites that qualify under the rules, the strike rate is a whopping, 37.62% strike rate. I'm afraid you are more likely to make money backing these on betfair, than laying them. |
(muffled chuckle) from Barny .....
|
I think UselessBettor was the first to point out that the winning system for 2011 actually loses!! Thanks to Chrome too, otherwise those of us who don't do their own DD might have started laying this only to lose to those backing it.
Oh well, back to the drawing board ..... |
4/4 successes today.
Now.What was the question. |
Number 24 didn't win all day either Darky ;)
|
As the old saying goes
"There,s me and thee and I wonder about thee sometimes". |
I think Darky might be right in this instance, I got these LAY results with the system below:
The Rules used were : horseNumber <= 4 and distance < 1001 and lastStart = 1 There were 38142 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time. There were 180 selections for the System There were 146 which Lost (did not win race) for the System for a strike rate of 81.11% You had to pay out $153.86 but brought in $171 after 5% commission. This means a Profit or loss of $17.14 or a percentage profit/loss of 9.52% The Schmile |
Don't want to seem like I'm arguing, but like to point out, that
the data is not accurate price wise. When I run systems that I know win laying, they lose using the data, so I'm not sure what's going on there. I'm comparing actual lay bets with the data, and it's way out. I'm not knocking UB, but if the prices aren't accurate, it puts people at a disadvantage. I think you need to be recording either the last traded price or use the Betfair weighted average, or Betfair SP, the markets aren't mature enough if the races don't run exactly on time. Secondly, it's not all last start winners in the field, it's the first one you come to. It's also last start 2nds. Using the criteria <=4 includes multiples. But for the sake of the argument let's do it that way. Code:
Code:
But if you're laying into better prices and paying commission, it's not going to work, because the fancied one's will kill you on strike rate and the unfancied one's will kill you on price. Code:
The strike rate is better than just favourite. Here are all possible bets today, will use BFSP as the tally... Code:
|
Here are the results when laying the field using UB's prices to demonstrate:
There were 38142 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time. There were 38142 selections for the System There were 34258 which Lost (did not win race) for the System for a strike rate of 89.82% You had to pay out $42188.79 but brought in $36234.9 after 5% commission. This means a Profit or loss of $-5953.89 or a percentage profit/loss of -15.61% I'm afraid that is way way out. |
UB,
First of all, excellent effort mate. very good of you to share. Just a suggestion, can you use odds from one of the totes to add to your database? That way if you find a system to be profitable on the database you can be confident of getting better results or equal by using betfair/top fluc etc. If you can find a system to show a profit on UNITAB etc your laughing!! Thanks to Chrome, I have a few.. |
Quote:
Chrome, I use worst betfair price on offer 10 secs to jump. So if your betting its the bet side and if your laying its the lay side. I only include prices from races which are 95% market percentage. The difference is mainly due to the longer shots that get up. You can have a discrepancy of $100 - $600. If you were backing the site uses the $100 if you were laying it uses the $600. Betfair SP might make it somewhere closer to the $100 from what I have seen. This can make a huge difference to the return. It also takes into account commission ( but I admit there is a flaw in that it doesn't take into account losses in the same race). So if you assume 5% of that loss is always commission, you are only losing 10% on the worst prices. Looking at the back vs lay prices : Backing returned : $35660.44 Laying returned : $42188.79 There is a 7K difference in the odds and if you layed at the lower odds you would actually be in profit. It all depends on the odds you get so I always take into account worst case for system tests. |
Hi UB,
That's fair enough and I'm not having a go at you, just pointing out the big gap. Perhaps a lot of the problem is low liquidity on outsiders with 5 seconds to jump, when many races can run well overtime. At 95% markets, we can assume that the outsiders are well under their price and favourites are well over. |
Quote:
Chrome Prince, I didn't think you were having a go as we have very similar ideas and thought processes. I always enjoy any ideas you come up with. I'm doing very well in my test so far of the winning without form idea you brought up (and I put a slight twist on). I need another 3 weeks of data though before I incorporate it into a live test with small bets. If it goes well I'll share the results and twist. |
5/5 Successes .
Cheers. |
Quote:
Very nice work,. |
Thank you.
Cheers darky |
Big claim to be system of the year for 2011.
Would like to see why. I'm not a berfair person nor a layer, but a couple of recent glories does not a summer make ..... let alone system of the year. stats .... beaten favourites, and favourite this time ..... have been claimed to have a 14% S/R on here, and a 35% S/R at a well known mag. Stats eh? ..... |
Code:
Backing: Outlay 12 units Return 32.27 Profit 20.27 POT 168.92% There you go. |
Quote:
Thanks UB, I'd be very interested in your findings. |
Chrome Prince, system of the year 2011 proven through one days results ?
|
Quote:
Isn't it supposed to be a lay system? I'm confused! |
Well, I haven't actually proved anything.
But it's pretty clear that as a lay system, it's found wanting because there are no price filters and no form filters. There are plenty of first uppers and from my data, it just doesn't add up to an edge. Because of the nuts and bolts of it, I still stick with my idea, that it is a better backing system than a lay system. But nothing has been proven either way - yet. |
System of the year ha.
Thank you for that great honour Darky and I would like to thank my Mother and my Father and to thank God. Its funny how not many of the 2.20-5.00 shots don't seem to win. One would naturally think that they would have a distinct edge over their rivals. Originally Posted by Bhagwan RULES <=1010m Delete any odds on fav races. (<=2.00) Won LS , first one we come to , working from top down list of runners. Look for LSW first. If no LS Winners then target LS 2nds. Delete any resumers. Laying Price 2.20-5.00 If the first one we come to going down the list is greater than 5.00 then its a no bet race, when Laying The majority will usually be <=5.00 They are nearly always over bet to their actual chance of winning . Remember to ignore any resumers, if laying. Most of the selections will be around the 3.00-3.50 mark Ocho did a test on this plan for a month & it did show a profit, if backing, of 17% POT but that was mainly due to a couple of larger prices getting up. Anything 2.20-5.00 showed a substantial loss if backing. Resumers with form figure of 1x Actually show a profit of +27% POT 37.5% SR Price 2.20+ Must be 1st or 2nd Favs. |
There is no way this LAY system shows a profit for WIN betting folks.
In the meantime the smart LAY punters will line their pockets for a lot of Xmas cheer. Cheers darky |
Chrome .
No mention in the original rules was made of starts before a spell. No one in their right minds would even consider a horses form from their last preparaion without 2 or 3 stsrts in this preparation I stand by my results. Cheers darky |
4/12/2011
Bunbury
Race 8 H 8 Goulburn Race 2 H 1 Race 6 H 3 Murray Bridge Race 2 H 3 |
| All times are GMT +10. The time now is 01:59 PM. |
Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.