Can a Profit be made chasing Favs
 

Generally the answer is no .
If one bets every fav that moves.

So I used the UB System checker to see what it would reveal.

RULES
Good Track only.
Anything else & it shows a loss.

TAB No. 5-9
Anything less & it shows a loss.

Ran 1st-5th LS

Result
48% SR
39% POT


There were 38142 horse form lines in the database at this point in time.

There were 120 selections for the System
There were 57 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 47.5%
There were $167.05 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $47.05 or a percentage profit/loss of 39.21%

This is only a starting point.
It needs to go through more data.


What is interesting is that when it comes to chasing profitable Favs , the track has to be rated nothing but Good.

Maybe someone out there has a larger data base to run this through.

So rules are Fav that is tab number 5-9 that finished 1st to 5th ls and today is good track.

Bhagwan,

Interesting, but I think you may have blown a fuse, i.e.

I ran that through my own data base of just over 10,000 favs, here is the result:

957 qualifiers for 293 wins S/R =30.62% (surprise surprise) -7.26%LOT
583 Plce S/R = 60.92% -3.71% LOT

What doesn't make sense is only 120 qualifiers from 30,000??? has to be something wrong.

Mine is at BoB, best tote/sp, best tote, country best, as available, but there is no way that BF SP is better than that on favs, especially then 5% commission.

But actually the end figure is not that bad!

I agree party there is something wrong with the data used in that free tester.

For example -2yo horses:

There were 204 selections for the System
There were 24 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 11.76%
There were $181.59 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $-22.41 or a percentage profit/loss of -10.99%




Test Another System

The Rules used were : age < 3





Only 204 2yo horses in that time?

Young Buck,
when you take into account that UB only started the data base about the middle of this year:

1. very few 2YO's would have registered as a runner up to 1 August (could be counted onm one hand).

2. UB also has stated that keeping the data base current is something done out of hours (meaning the weekends racing may not be entered as yet).

3. 2YO races do not start until mid September (give or take) -

I would only expect 20 odd races to be run up to this time and believe the figures you have shown are about right.

cheers

Thanks Elk, wasn't really sure when this was started, and was never one to keep close track on the 'seasons' so to speak.

Thanks for clearing it up.

SYSTEM RESULTS FOR: MY SYST_BHAGGYS FAV 01/12/2010-30/11/2011
WIN PLACE
Races Bet: 1378 1376
Races Won: 452 859
S.R./Race: 32.8% 62.4%
Outlay($): 1378.00 1376.00
Return : 1292.90 1292.40
$ Profit : -85.10 -83.60
% P.O.T. : -6.2% -6.1%
Av Win Div: 2.86
Av Plc Div: 1.50
Win SR/Seln: 32.8
Plc SR/Seln: 62.3
Thru Betselector Unitab prices

Win Strike Rate/Seln. : 34.3%
Plc Strike Rate/Seln. : 64.7%
Average Win Dividend : $2.83
Average Plc Dividend : $1.49

WIN PLACE
Races Bet: 1105 1103
Races Won: 379 715
S.R./Race: 34.3% 64.8%
Outlay($): 1105.00 1103.00
Return : 1072.20 1065.78
$ Profit : -32.80 -37.22
% P.O.T. : -3.0% -3.4%

Last start pos 1-3

SYSTEM RESULTS FOR: MY SYST_BHAGGYS FAV 01/12/2010-30/11/2011
WIN PLACE
Races Bet: 884 882
Races Won: 317 587
S.R./Race: 35.9% 66.6%
Outlay($): 884.00 882.00
Return : 875.60 867.20
$ Profit : -8.40 -14.80
% P.O.T. : -1.0% -1.7%

Av Win Div: 2.76
Av Plc Div: 1.48
Win SR/Seln: 35.9
Plc SR/Seln: 66.4
Last start 1-2

SYSTEM RESULTS FOR: MY SYST_BHAGGYS FAV 01/12/2010-30/11/2011
WIN PLACE
Races Bet: 573 573
Races Won: 219 389
S.R./Race: 38.2% 67.9%
Outlay($): 573.00 573.00
Return : 577.40 567.14
$ Profit : 4.40 -5.86
% P.O.T. : 0.8% -1.0%
Av Win Div: 2.64
Av Plc Div: 1.46
Win SR/Seln: 38.2
Plc SR/Seln: 67.9

LSW

note all test had min career wins =1 to eliminate maidens

This test was positive from go to whoa

SYSTEM RESULTS FOR: McY SYST_BHAGGYS FAV 01/12/2010-30/11/2011
............. WIN ...... PLACE QUINELLA EXACTA TRIFECTA FIRST FOUR
Races Bet: 422 422 422 422 422 403
Races Won: 168 292 188 129 95 67
S.R./Race: 39.8% 69.2% 44.5% 30.6% 22.5% 16.6%
Outlay($): 422.00 422.00 2125.00 2125.00 8604.00 25284.00
Return : 448.50 429.08 2259.70 2497.80 9731.70 31721.40
$ Profit : 26.50 7.08 134.70 372.80 1127.70 6437.40
% P.O.T. : 6.3% 1.7% 6.3% 17.5% 13.1% 25.5%
Av Win Div: 2.67
Av Plc Div: 1.47
Win SR/Seln: 39.8
Plc SR/Seln: 69.2
LSW no maidens and a simple twist eliminating some runners

SYSTEM RESULTS FOR: MY SYST_BHAGGYS FAV 01/12/2010-30/11/2011
.................WIN PLACE QUINELLA EXACTA TRIFECTA FIRST FOUR
Races Bet: 217 217 217 217 217 207
Races Won: 95 164 110 73 55 38
S.R./Race: 43.8% 75.6% 50.7% 33.6% 25.3% 18.4%
Outlay($): 217.00 217.00 1091.00 1091.00 4408.00 12912.00
Return : 255.80 236.26 1215.40 1325.10 5873.60 18053.20
$ Profit : 38.80 19.26 124.40 234.10 1465.60 5141.20
% P.O.T. : 17.9% 8.9% 11.4% 21.5% 33.2% 39.8%
Av Win Div: 2.69
Av Plc Div: 1.44
Win SR/Seln: 43.8
Plc SR/Seln: 75.6
Dis <2000 Wt =<56 and no Sunday. LSW no maidens and the simple twist

SYSTEM RESULTS FOR: MY SYST_BHAGGYS FAV 01/12/2010-30/11/2011
WIN PLACE QUINELLA EXACTA TRIFECTA FIRST FOUR
Races Bet: 170 170 170 170 170 163
Races Won: 78 129 88 61 45 33
S.R./Race: 45.9% 75.9% 51.8% 35.9% 26.5% 20.2%
Outlay($): 170.00 170.00 852.00 852.00 3428.00 10032.00
Return : 207.30 183.12 965.00 1062.90 4691.10 14861.10
$ Profit : 37.30 13.12 113.00 210.90 1263.10 4829.10
% P.O.T. : 21.9% 7.7% 13.3% 24.8% 36.8% 48.1%
Av Win Div: 2.66
Av Plc Div: 1.42
Win SR/Seln: 45.9
Plc SR/Seln: 75.9

Added win/place %ranking =<5 and max LSW =<5
3 races per week

SYSTEM RESULTS FOR: MY SYST_BHAGGYS FAV 01/10/2007-30/11/2011
WIN PLACE QUINELLA EXACTA TRIFECTA FIRST FOUR
Races Bet: 749 748 749 749 749 726
Races Won: 288 487 321 219 156 104
S.R./Race: 38.5% 65.1% 42.9% 29.2% 20.8% 14.3%
Outlay($): 749.00 748.00 3773.00 3773.00 15310.00 45810.00
Return : 746.20 699.98 3608.40 4010.70 14884.60 40947.70
$ Profit : -2.80 -48.02 -164.60 237.70 -425.40 -4862.30
% P.O.T. : -0.4% -6.4% -4.4% 6.3% -2.8% -10.6%
Av Win Div: 2.59
Av Plc Div: 1.44
Win SR/Seln: 38.5
Plc SR/Seln: 65.0
Strenght of this were the last 5 months

2009 and 2010 both negative years

Breakdown by Year - Level Stakes

Breakdown by Year - Level Stakes

Bets Wins $Return Outs %SR $Up $Dn %Up %Dn $Profit %POT IV SR POT
2007 46 19 49.8 4 41 3.8 - - - 3.8 8 1.07


2008 198 83 202.8 11 42 8.6 - - - 4.8 2 1.09


2009 188 61 163.9 14 32 -15.5 - - - -24.1 -13 0.84


2010 157 51 137.6 9 32 -34.9 - - - -19.4 -12 0.84


2011 160 74 192.1 8 46 -2.8 - - - 32.1 20 1.20

Thanks for those data checks
I must of left something out.
Lets try again.

Fav
TAB 5-8
Ran 1-5 LS
Field size <= 8
Track Good only.

48%SR
34% POT


There were 150 selections for the System
There were 72 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 48%
There were $200.48 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $50.48 or a percentage profit/loss of 33.65%

The Rules used were : horseNumber >= 5 and horseNumber <=8 and priceRank < 90 and priceRank = 1 and lastStart >= 1 and lastStart <=5 and runners <= 8 and cond = 'G'

ran those exact rules thru the database again 10,000 favs: result:

Bets 193
hits 74
S/R 38.34% (pretty good)

place 128
hits (66.32%)

Returns for the win = $186.8 (LOT 3.21%)
Place =$198 POT 2.59%

Bhagwan
I had field size at 16.
These new parameters show that the wins have been in the last 4 months but a loss over the year

SYSTEM RESULTS FOR: MY SYST_BHAGGY FAV 01/12/2010-30/11/2011
WIN PLACE QUINELLA EXACTA TRIFECTA FIRST FOUR
Races Bet: 386 384 386 386 386 358
Races Won: 156 270 221 144 129 103
S.R./Race: 40.4% 70.3% 57.3% 37.3% 33.4% 28.8%
Outlay($): 386.00 384.00 1911.00 1911.00 7592.00 21216.00
Return : 370.20 378.18 1757.60 1906.00 7221.30 19005.70
$ Profit : -15.80 -5.82 -153.40 -5.00 -370.70 -2210.30
% P.O.T. : -4.1% -1.5% -8.0% -0.3% -4.9% -10.4%

Bhagwan,

Remember my system tester only has data since Aug 11.
Also its based on betfair prices at 10 secs from jump.

Im not sure wehat prices bentons/partypoopers db's runs against but different prices can mean different results.

Thanks for those stats Beton.
They look interesting.

I see your stats show a SR of 40% (very good)

Just a little tip when posting stats in such a format.
Because the Propun uses a program that automatically adjusts all
2+ spacings to just 1

One can use a series of ..... or ---- to space out the information to a format that's easier to look at.

Cheers.

Thanks Party for those stats.

Oh! those stats, they shall not be denied.

Seeing that is shows only a small loss -3% LOT (very good)

One can see why punters start getting stuck into staking plans so as to tweak such stats into profit.

Now all you've got to do is tweak it into profit.

Easy (or is it?)

you only have to get 5 cents better per bet to be even. The trouble with tweaking is that you end up with very few bets. There has to be reward for effort. With this you would have to get your possible runners and then ensure that they were the fav. Although you are down to one bet per day you may have 10 possible bets that are discounted because they are not THE FAv. Alright if you are already sitting at the computor but difficult if you are doing something else.
Unless you can put your preselections into bet bot pro and have it place the bets if they become the fav

Thats one of the nice things one can do with BetBotPro.