Lay Lady Lay
 

Here's a couple at the Valley that will go close but I think just miss the chocolates.

Moonee Valley
r4 n2 Unchain My Heart - getting up in the weights now
r7 n2 Olympica - could be a bit dour, dropping 400m

The Schmile

you a Dylan fan from way as well Schmile?

ABSOLUTELY!!!!!!!!!!

A nice start.

Moonee Valley
r4 n2 Unchain My Heart - 2nd $2.50/1.24
Ran a good race then the extra weight told over the last 200m. The winner Star of Jeune was also very well rated in front by M Payne.

The Schmile

Look at how tight tracks favour on pacers.

I just don't understand why the jocks haven't learnt this after all this time.
Why would you let a horse just skip away, when you know he has all the favours?
It's getting like the trots, these days, because no jockey has the sense to take on the leader and by the time the wake up, it's all over.

Very strange, I'm starting to think something else is going on!

I'm not talking through my pocket, as Star Of Jeune was my best result.

Results 11/12/11
 

2/2

Moonee Valley
r4 n2 Unchain My Heart - 2nd $2.50/1.24
r7 n2 Olympica - UNPL $5.60/2.04

Good day's play for the lays.

The Schmile

Hi Chrome Prince,

It is hard to gauge what's going on sometimes I agree! In this instance, perhaps the riders on the two favourites got obsessed with following each other?

We curse and swear when a jockey rides a shocker but maybe we're not giving enough credit to the best riders and the job they do of summing up pace and making decisions in a race?

The Schmile

That's true of course, but when you see a handful of races work out like this, it makes you question why they let this unfold meeting after meeting at the same track.

It's a tricky track alright.

I've almost completely given up on Valley Friday nights. I wish they'd put lights up at the other metro tracks. I didn't place any win bets there today.

Last Friday night you could have gone F/F/F/F in the Quaddie and made a profit!!

Regarding race 4:
I had a quick look through all the runners racing patterns and there were no natural pacesetters, except for no. 6 who has been out of form for a long time.

Maybe Michelle Payne just read the speed maps better and knew with the weight pull she'd be really hard to rundown? In Star of Jeune's previous run he settled 8th.

Back to the track:
The tight track along with the short straight can leave some horses flat footed also and many start winding up when the race is over.

Oh yes, then there's the StrathAyr Surface which many horses don't run well on.

Easy......

The Schmile

I guess that's what I'm getting at.
Michelle Payne is one smart jockey, she knew by previous races, if she took the lead, they'd let her run out in front thinking her horse would fold.
Horses have made up ground at the Valley, but they have to take off early and defy the corner, and only the class horses can do it, like makybe and fields of omagh, or kingston town.

If you look at the Our Waverley Star, Bonecrusher race, you can see what happened to the rest of the field.
But they were exceptional horses of course and before Strath Ayr.

I'm still trying to find out why the jockeys on the favoured runners think they can make up ground at the valley with ordinary horses.

So for the sake of argument, I think you can make pretty good money backing anything that leads at the valley by a few lengths and lay any favoured runner back in the field unless it's something special.

I've got 2,892 last start winners at the Valley.
876 of them were leading at the 400m mark, or 30% of them.
1345 were running first or second at the 400m mark, or 46.51%
So this is leading before the home turn, as the straight is 173m long.
1,750 were in the top 3 on pacers at the 400m mark, which equates to 60.51%

What's missing from this is the situation where it's a distance race and the leader pinches a break of 2 or 3 lengths or more.

Just like Shakira's hips, 'the stats don't lie'!!

Please pardon the pun Chrome Prince it's been a long day.

How to these stats at the Valley compare to leaders at the 400m mark at all tracks, or other Melbourne tracks?

Is there a definite advantage, just from my own betting experience I'd say so. I've been wary of Moonee Valley for a long time.

The Schmile

Selections 13/12/11
 

Two for today that may have reached their top.

Strathalbyn
r6 n1 Meadows Dan - up 2 kg's for last win in the same company.

Doomben
r5 n2 Danish Whiskey - up 3kg's for last start win in c3. All wins on Good tracks.

Lay up to $5.

The Schmile

Nice !!!
Both missed the place

Hi Om Sharntee,

Thanks it was a good result today. There are lots of examples each week of horses lumped with excessive weight after a victory.

Isolate those last start winners without much more improvement in them this preparation.

The Schmile

Tamworth Lay
 

Tamworth
r5 - n5 We Sing We Dance - drops 550 metres from last start 3rd over 2150.

The Schmile