Advise Sought on Stopping or Continuation Betting
 

Hi guys (and girls if there are any here).

I'm trying out a betting system and although it's VERY early days (like 3 days) I was wondering whether it is better to just keep betting throughout the day or to stop when you reach a certain dollar amount.

I'm using a bot and am Backing (not laying - YAY :) ) using the Betfair minimum of $5 per bet. I have a $50 stop loss set which I will leave however I'm in a dilemma of whether to let the profits run or stop them at a certain level.

From the 3 days I have finished at the end of the day with +$26, +$9 & -$6.

If I had stopped at say +$25 then all 3 days would have stopped there.

What do you guys think (or do)?

Keep it running or basically a stop at a winner type approach/stopping at a defined dollar amount.

It is often a real dilemma isnt it Ocho

I have a similar setup with automated betting on anything up to 60% of races on a given day laying & backing, & decided after much gnashing of teeth etc to just let it run as while I often reached a desirable profit amount & then went backwards for the day, I would then miss out on 'those special days' when everything falls into place.

So for me in the long run, it has been more profitable to cover every possible betting opportunity.

Rather than stop betting try to work out the races that you are less likely to win in and avoid these races, maybe it is to many runners or to few runners or the fav is to high a price or to low.

Hi the Ocho,

As Shaun said, if you can work out your profitable races then you can avoid the losing ones and stop betting when at a predetermined profit.

Unfortunately for most punters the option is to keep going because you don't know where the profit is coming from.

I keep a most thorough and, probably too meticulous, record of my betting with knowing my strikerate number of outs etc, and I do stop when at a certain profit or loss, and even despite the most complete record keeping I still miss out on some winners, luckily not enough to make up for the potential losers but.

I'd say after a few weeks you can work out your average profit and then set a limit to profit-loss.

At the end of the day this is still a game of chance, actually made worse by the influence of human element.

Lacking complete records I would rather set a loss stop than a profit stop. Due to being a game of chance some days are not going our way no matter what.

Good luck

Thanks for the replies, guys.

Today the system went up to about $44 before a few losses occurred with the $50 trailing stop kicking in and losing -$10.33.

While it's not much of a system it appears that stopping at somewhere like +$25 would have netted me $100 in 4 days instead of basically going nowhere.

I have set the bot to switch to simulation mode when the stop loss is triggered (today was the first day it was actually triggered). From tomorrow I will reverse the settings and have a profit stop set at +$25 and will then run the bot in simulation mode to see what would of happened if I actually make it to $25 :rolleyes: (remember I am back betting the minimum $5 at a time).

Of course, you can all guess what will happen tomorrow. Talk about an omen bet. ;)

Generally , many systems will be 3-4 units in front at some stage.

Then give it all back & some.

It is strongly recommended to set profit at 3-4 x initial bet if you wish for daily profits.

Set Max losers at 12
This keeps things more in control .

That way if its a total write off , it will only take 3-4 days of normal betting to recover.

There is the old argument that says ....
"If the system is any good , it should work all the time , so don't stop betting."

The problem I have with that statement is that no system works the same way all the time.
They have windows of opportunity which are always smaller before hit with a run of outs, we never know when or how long these outs will be .
Thats why its best to stop once 3-4 units infront.

I your case it would be $15-20 profit then stop.

If we only targeted for 3% profit a day.
This equates to 90% increase on bank in a month if things go our way.

I feel that s

Thanks Bhagwan. I was also thinking along those lines and actually had the profit stop set for $25 but then, later on changed my mind. DOH!!!

Unless you have some system that is more successful - for example in the early type of races such as 2YO’s etc - there is no logic that I can see in stopping early or continuing for the full suite of your selections.
To embrace that approach would be similar to saying”I only bet after race 4 on the program” once again unless you had some system more suitable to the mature type of races it makes no sense.
I can’t see any punting magic in a night’s sleep or a new day that will make things right again.
In my opinion by stopping early etc all you are doing is delaying the inevitable.

Ocho

Tried a few variations on the theme but in general it makes no sense to stop betting. All you'll do is limits your gains or lock in your losses.

or continue to aid the disguise of a non-profitable strategy

Please,please,please....
 

Aha! the meat of the issue.

As much as I love and respect the Bhagwans of this forum I urge anyone who wants to get seriously large in this game to go to their nearest Uni and speak to a Mathematics boffin. Please don't waste your time working out how much the next bet should be for. This is taking your mind away from WHICH bet to make. If level stakes don't cut the mustard, a staking plan won't cut the mustard.

This isn't my opinion, my idea, my nothing. It's just plain, proven fact. Talk to the boffins....they know.

Thanks for all the comments so far.

TWOBETS, I don't quite get what you are saying. What will the boffins say?

This has nothing to do with a staking plan. I'm just trying out the system with level stakes. Again a $25 gain was had today if I stopped (which I did). That's 5 days in a row if I had of stopped from the get go (I've bet for the last 4 days). I know it's ridiculously early but 5 lots of $25 makes $125 while continuation betting would of made a total of only +$24 for the 5 days. (Current amount today is at +$59 but there was a $60 draw down so I would of been stopped out at +6 today if I was using the continuation mode).

It is the type of system that will be up and down and will require a stop loss however because of the up and down nature then maybe taking the profits is the way to go.

I know that share traders say you should cut your losses early (have a stop loss) but you should also let your profits ride however, with the horse trading that I do I will hedge my bets thereby usually giving me a profit at the end of each session which has adds up over time. Having a profit stop to me is the same as that. Yes sure the system could go gang busters one day (or maybe even more) but what I think may be worse is giving all the day's gains back because I was too greedy.

"The mathematicians amongst us would know that a staking plan does not enhance any system. That said, it is critical to get the staking level correct to suit the particular SR/dividend scenario."

Hi Twobets,

Not trying to take the Mick, just trying to clarify the situation as your last post struck a chord. In my other thread you stated 'the mathemeticians amongst us would know' and here you advise to go to the nearest Uni and speak to a mathematics boffin.

I think your advice in essence is sound as one could solve most of these arguments with a statistics 'boffin' but I'm not sure where you stand?

Can you provide statistics either way as to where The Ocho should go woth his idea?

The Schmile

Keeping it simple, like me!
 

Afternoon, the Schmile.

I'm no maths brain for sure, but I have seen so much on forums around the world that are constantly discussing this staking plan or that staking plan.
All I was trying to point out is the futility of mucking around with them. It is a waste of time and effort.

Obviously if something other than the maths is involved then these are paths and points to ponder, but if it's just the maths your playing with then surely the over riding point should be that long term, any staking plan as such is useless. Of course marrying stake to one's bank, SR, volatility etc are all ultra important.

No Mick taken the Schmile , but my wife does say I'm a bit of a dill.

Hi, Thought I might butt in with a thought. A punter I know has all his selections for the , bets level stake, but when he gets a winner he halves the level stake bet for the rest of the day and does well with this method. Next day he starts of at his usual level stake bet, if he gets a winner goes bach to the half bet. If you back loosers for the rest of the day thee pain is not as great, if you get a nother winner you are still on.

Nice thought
 

Yes Wildchild, but if you get another winner you're only on for half.....or in other words over an extended period of bets......no difference!

This is the thing with all staking plans : they divert your attention away from the real issue and at years end make not one iota of difference.

Stick to a bank percentage and go get 'em. :-)

So TWOBETS, are you saying a stop at a winner type approach (profit stop) is a staking plan and not a system? And that those boffins of yours reckon that's no good?

If I'm betting level stakes then surely its not a staking plan.

Yes....and no.
 

Well the Ocho, one has to be careful here about how you evaluate the strategy.

If the only factors affecting your decision to stop betting are mathematical, then yes, it makes no difference. But often there are more factors at work with the horses. Maybe there's something in the last races of the day that are affecting this system's results? If that is the case then it's a system not a staking plan.

A system is a winner if it comes out ahead according to the rules. Stop at a winner is a system if that is the system rules. However stop at a loss or profit is money management or a staking plan. If a system does not produce a positive result on its own merit,then it is a loser. It might be today, it might be next week or even next year. Thus if you have a winning system then money management can help. If not then it will inevitally fail. However there are people that make money out of money management but that is more than stopping when in front. If you are risk adverse then stopping when in front may be a winner but do not regret what was left on the table. The only real way is to test and record the progress and make up your mind accordingly. Your system may work good on the early races and fail on the later which should form part of the testing. Beton

It could be worth looking at those later races to see whats going on, & rather than stopping at a fixed profit, it may pay to stop a race number X at each venue.

The majority of punters lose

The number 1 reason why punters lose , is.

They don't know when to stop ,so the discussion is always made for them & that's usually when they have zero money left, therefore , forced to stop.

The Mathematical Boffins might be smart chaps when it comes to theory , but can they pick a little winner in reality.

Here is a test for those who feel that its best to keep on going.

How many favs do you think you will hit out of 8 races.
Pick out the favs you think will win. leave races out if you wish.
Doing that for all venues on the day .

Keep betting the way you think should happen .

And I will bet also ..
but the difference is , I stop at a winner for that venue.
Max 4 outs per venue. Then stop for that venue.
And do the same for all venues on the day.

I can almost guarantee you , that our approach will do better , than the suggested keep ona puntin idea.

Punters have adopted that approach with open arms since the beginning of time & have paid the penalty many times over.

Now we see the myth being perpetuated yet again.

Many plans, break even over time .
I feel they would be in front if they knew when to stop for the day.

Another approach that is not mentioned much in horse punting & money management , its the use of a ...

Trailing Stop Loss.

This is how it can work.

Lets say we would like to win 3 x initial bet per day.
Lets say it would be great to make say 7 x our initial level stakes bet on a good day = $70 Profit

Betting say $10 units.

Say we set the Trailing Stop Loss at say 7 x $10 = $70

What we do is, we continue betting away & say we have a lucky run & it goes to say $100 & you still wish to keep going because you cant stop because you read somewhere that its best to keep going & going & going.

Our punting takes a turn the other way.

Our P/L balance now drops to $70

The Trailing Stop Loss will kick in if the next bet falls over.
We stop because its Profit is now below the $70 mark.

We have now made $60 profit where usually we would be happy if we hit $30 a day.

Of course the opportunity to win even more is there, if the Profit Bal stays above the $70 mark.
It may go to the $100 mark & stay there.

BetBotPro has this Trailing Stop Loss as one of its options in the program.

I use BF Bot Manager and it too has a trailing stop loss which I am using with my testing however I'm not sure that you've quite got it right.

A trialing stop loss has to have the loss inputted that you want. In your example a $70 trailing stop loss would only kick in after your $100 profit goes down by $70 to $30 (It is $70 below your highest point).

Of course you can make the stop loss less if you change it during the day but, otherwise your money will go back by the amount you set the trailing stop loss.

Yesterday the bot was about 55c short of $25 (the highest point of the day) before it lost $10 and I finished with $14.45. That's 5 days of $25 profits plus one of $14 betting $5 stakes (if I had of stopped at $25 eralier in the week :rolleyes: ).

Thanks Ocho.

Here is another angle.

Bet away as usual but set the number of losses to max 12

Once the 12th loser is hit , we stop.

We will either be in profit or some loss.

If we have a total wipe out, we have only lost 12 units if level stakes betting.

This is not too bad & is recoverable.

One can always go again on the same day or leave it for the following day.

Doing it this way helps to control what we are doing rather than having all our bets out there in never never land.

If you think it through – what you are doing when you adopt a policy of stopping when you have won a certain amount is saying….

” Today so far I have exceeded my long term average so I will stop now and miss the inevitable flow of losers – which is just around the corner – tomorrow is a new sequence and therefore we will start again- all fresh”

As I said before all it does is delay the inevitable.

Pretty similar to walking into a casino and having 3 straight bets on the RED and then leaving.

Well it may win for 3 months in the casino – but I can assure you over time you will just get the long term average – i.e. house make the profit and you lose 3-4% per spin.

In punting you can’t win over the long term unless you have an edge that makes you better than the others – (that is - the other punters who are betting against your selection). Short term wins are just luck.

Artificial rules like stopping here and starting there are just props which may work for a while but in most cases the overall selections will just find their long term average.

That my friends is a FACT that you can take to the bank.

cheers

Aussie

I always have a problem when folk start comparing horse racing to flipping a coin.

I feel that's a different thing altogether .
e.g. coins dont have variable odds or field sizes.

The +$25 stop brought in +$31.34 today while letting it ride lost -$33. That brings the 7 days since looking at this "system" to +$170 stopping at $25 (but just using $25 for the first 5 days when, in fact, some days would of made a bit over that) and +$43 with just letting it ride over the last 7 days.

I realize 7 days is nothing in the scheme of things. I also know this will more than likely fall over (maybe whether I just let it ride or stop at the $25/5 units level) but I've got to try something and I'd rather have 7/7 positive days than 4/7.

when you stop and start at artificial intervals you may as well be flipping a coin with THAT element of your decision - that overall decision being to bet on the animal or not.

so what was once straight forward - "well there's my selections that i will wager on" - has now become a 2 part decision -
decision 1 : what are my selections
decision 2 :whether i back them or not becomes dependant on some other random event - like whether i win with with earlier selections

decision 2 IMHO is akin to flipping a coin.
all things being equal why should selection 5 be inferior to selection 2.
by stopping early we are inferring that it is because selection 2 or anything above the stop point must have collected enough to make a profit




Not to be confused with variable odds or field sizes that you mention - totally, totally different discussion and as far as I can recall so far not raised seriously by anybody else in this thread so far.


cheers

aussie

I thought the exercise was the discussion on whether or not one continues after a profit target is reached.

The odds have a lot to do with it.

The higher the odds , the fewer winners needed to reach target or recover losses.

The greater the odds the longer the possible run of outs in between winners.

The flipping of a coin is all about how many winners you will get on a 50/50 chance at even money.

That's why its a different conversation.

The long run of outs is the death of most well intentioned, logical plans.
That's why its usually best to grab the target amount & stop before one hits the long run of outs.
There will be the odd day where everything goes our way and make heaps of money, but there will be very few of those.
If one is going to punt for a living , one cant be working in hope for that big pay day that may or may not eventuate.
Try selling that to the Rent Lady.

Most Professional Punters target a handful of selections say 6 horses for the day.

If they make their target amount say 3% on Bank , they usually stop for the day.

They usually dont bet all 6 horses once profit target is reached.with say 2 horses.
Even though there could have been more winners.

The aim of the game is to hit realistic dollar target amounts on a daily basis, over a month.

Not how many winners one can pick by betting like a machine gun even when in front.
That's how amateur punters lose on a consistent basis.

Remember:
Professional punters usually don't keep betting once target is reached, so why are others advocating the opposite including Maths boffins.
Where at has proven to fail over many decades.

the original question was:

"What do you guys think (or do)?

Keep it running or basically a stop at a winner type approach/stopping at a defined dollar amount."

so your right on the first part where you say

"I thought the exercise was the discussion on whether or not one continues after a profit target is reached."

It wasn't a question of how you got there etc with odds and ends and strike rates etc. It was a question of what you do when you are there.

Similiar but different

i don't know any actual professional punters - but i know some good punters and they have their selections and they bet them all for the day - focussing on getting value.
they then come back and do it all again next time.
I have heard them say that the punting day never ends.

As I said before dropping off when you are in front is a way of saying

"I expect my average to drop pretty soon so i am getting out now"

Problem is you may go well the rest of that day and the average may drop from the first selection in the next day.

So you would say to yourself "what do we do now Tonto ?"

Anyhow all good fun.


cheers all

aussie




Anyhow everyone's different so i am dropping of.

Can't resist (I know its futile)

The answer is it doesn't matter really as your selections have a S/R that will always even out over time no matter what the method of selection including chucking a dart.

So whether you bet one a day, ten a day, place every second bet stood on head,and every 4th one with your fist in yer ear', the S/R will always stay the same (over time) see; someone forgot to tell your next nag to win cos the last one you bet on got beat, or visa versa, etc etc.

Having said that, it doesn't do any harm but you should be aware that you are not changing anything by going home early, other than putting a smile on someones' face!! maybe!

10 races

Your pick may win all of them.
Your pick may win some of them.
Your pick may win none of them.

Whatever the strike rate, any of the above can be true.

Stop at a winner in the above scenarios:

You lose profit by stopping
You are square by stopping.
You lose by not stopping because there was no winner.

In other words, under the scenario your pick may win some of them, it looks better to stop, and usually scenario 2 will be the norm.
It's the outliers that kill you because, you have given away profit to compensate when stopping when they all win.
Hence there is absolutely no way you will make up the losses when they all lose.

It's another furphy produced by the mind.
One tends to remember how many times you were in front and then ended up losing.
One doesn't remember the times every one of them lost, because they happen less often.

There are only two circumstances where stopping is advantageous.

1) there are discipline or chasing problems.
2) your edge is actually in the earlier races, whether recognised or not.

It's quite simple to simulate this in excel via sorting of results.

It's also a bit like trading ticks on Betfair, one tick a day for 30 days, on the 31st day there is a late scratching and the market moves wildly in the opposite direction, you lose 40 ticks!
For thirty days you feel like stopping is the thing to do, on the 31st day...you feel sick.

I know it's not the same as betting, but the principle is the same.

As i have said - its just delays the inevitable when you knock off early

that's what i was saying and trying to get through
thanks god someone else understands also

:oops:

Nothing like a robust discussion.

The "system" had a terrible day today getting stopped out at -$46.08 (it only barely got into the black today). Letting it go lost -$63.42 for the whole day's betting (at $5 a pop).

So after 8 days stopping at $25 = +$124 (7 winning days & 1 losing day)
Letting it go after 8 days -$19 (4 winning & 4 losing days)

This sort of shows the system, when letting it ride, isn't much chop while stopping it while in profit is currently in front by another 2 1/2 bad days ($50 trailing stop) but still not much chop.

Hi Ocho,
I feel you are on the right track with the $50 Stop loss.

Allowing for 10 straight losses in a row.

This also allows for some more races to be run if there are some winners in between.

Your selection plan seems to be OK.

If one wishes for greater SR, I feel one would have to target lower prices or take 2 Horses a race.

But I feel the end result will be much the same.

"what do we do now Tonto ?"

Thats the question asked of Tonto by The Lone Ranger.

Tonto's reply was....

'What you mean WE White Man"

Meant to read...

"what do we do now Tonto ?"

Thats the question asked of Tonto by The Lone Ranger, when they where were surrounded by hostile Indians.

Tonto's reply was....

'What you mean WE White Man"

how did it finish up

there's your answer

Bahgwan, Funny you should say that just at this time.
I was looking for something unrelated in my files and came across this research I've done some time ago.

Fav in races with 6 or less runners win 42.1% LOT 12.7%

> 6 and <=9 35.2% LOT 12.7%
> 9 and <=12 30.9% LOT 12.4 probably due higher divs
>12 and <= 16 27% LOT 19.5%

Field sizes and odds DO matter and I find my own rating performs best in the 10 to 14 field size.

The prices were the official starting prices that come with the form download, so I assume the bookies' stating prices.