Backing First Two Faves System Test
 

In the spirit of giving at Christmas time and also due to comments on another thread about the UK forumites not sharing anything, lest someone take their advantage away from them, I will share with you what I am currently trying out.

This testing was the subject of the “Advise Sought” thread (sorry about the wrong spelling for “advice”) :oops: where I asked if it’s better to stop after a set amount is reached or you just keep betting all day long.

Most said that it was better to keep going with some making a caveat that there may be some merit in stopping early should there be better outcomes in the early races. One such system that worked by stopping early was Bhagwan’s 3rd fave system where you stop after 6 losses or after 1 winner (whichever came first). This produced 50 points profit for the month of testing (1 point per bet) however it seemed to affect which horse was 3rd fave according to a few posters. That’s what I’m worried about in revealing this “system”. It may affect the prices should it be moderately successful.

But, what the hey! Here goes.


RULES
Back first 2 faves if the prices are within 3% chance of winning with each other (My bot – BF Bot Manager – has a function that says what the percentage chances of the horse/dog winning are which is based on their prices. Thus a 1st fave with a 25% chance and 2nd fave with a 22% chance are a bet)
Back equal amount on each of the 2 faves (1 unit each on first 2 faves = 2 units per race)
Maximum Odds of 4.5 for the 1st fave on Betfair (doesn’t matter what price the 2nd fave is)
Trailing stop loss at –10 units (that’s 5 losing races in a row or a combination of winning and losing races resulting in the –10 trailing stop loss being hit)
Profit Stop at +5 units
ALL RACES TOGETHER– That’s gallops, harness and greyhounds in running order
Minimum $3500 volume on Betfair
Minimum of 5 runners

I’m betting the minimum amount on Betfair which is $5 per fave (or $10 per race).
Stops for me are +25 profit stop or –50 stop loss (I’ve set mine at -49 as the bot doesn’t stop on –50 – it has to exceed that amount).

As you can see, this is a little like Bhagwan’s backing the 3rd fave system in that, if you just keep betting all day then, chances are you will end up giving back any gains (but obviously, not always so) as the law of averages will then hit you.


I’m not sure if anyone has tried this angle before or know the stats for something like this. If you do, then please let me if I am wasting my time. L I’m thinking that the law of averages will just hit me sooner or later but I’ve got to try something. I haven’t got 20 or 30 systems on the go like some others have here.

I’ll give my results so far in the next post.

Results
 

RESULTS

I started testing on Sunday 11 December 2012. Real betting started on Monday 12/12 where I didn’t have a profit stop. The profit stop then kicked in from 15/12.

9 Days
$25 Profit Stop/$50 Stop Loss – 8 winning days & 1 losing day = +$185
No Stops – 4 winning days & 5 losing days = -$62

Here are the results so far (if you can read them) with Actual being my actual results:

Date, $25 Stop, Actual, Ongoing
20121211 27.65, N/A, 27.65
20121212 29.12, 9.1, 9.1
20121213 27.72, -6.67, -6.67
20121214 30.41, -10.33, -24.23
20121215 25.52, 25.52, 59
20121216 24.43, 24.43, 14.45
20121217 31.57, 31.57, -33
20121218 -46.08, -46.08, -63.42
20121219 34.83, 34.83, -45.76

TOTALS
$25 Stop +185.17
My Actual +62.37
No Stops -62.88

I’m not sure how to record it in units. I am betting $5 per fave but $10 per race. So does 1 unit equal $5 or $10 in this case?

So far it’s 37 Units for $5 per fave and 18.5 Units for $10 per race.

I’ll keep updating for a month, if I don’t keep losing, in which case that will be the end of that.

+25 profit stop hit already today. Update all results at end of day.

You know why they don't share on the Uk forum, they are mugs the lot of them. you just have to read some of the crap that gets posted on the betfair racing thread, just a lot of try hards with no real clue on what racing is.

I feel you could be right Shaun.

I get the same feeling looking at the languaging being used.

They appear to go on & one about why a certain horse did not win - Boring.

Well done Ocho,
Thanks for sharing your findings & well done on those impressive results so far.

I like that 3 percentage points idea.

That's something new worth looking at closer.

I feel you have got your parameters sorted to a nice balance.


That's the important bit.

The 3 point difference thing between Horses price , is something only a Bot can do on a very consistent basis & doubt anyone has the patience to do it manually because that's like work or something.

Units thing.
The way I would record something like that , would be $10 = 1 unit per race
Because we are always betting $10 a race , using a 50/50 split.
So
Essentially , we are going for 2.5 units a day.
This is very doable on a daily basis.

Tip:
When doing layouts.
Try & use ---- or ..... to separate because the program that's used on this site, automatically adjusts all 2+ spacings to just 1 spacing.

LOL Lay the draw, correct score, all up, 1 pound into 100,000.
Yep, seen it all.

Is it actually the birth place of all new punters?

Results
 

Thanks Bhagwan. I'll try and keep the spacing thing in mind.

The 3 percentage points is the most distance apart that the prices can be. So you can be backing equal faves or up to 3% difference in the chance of winning.

On a few occasions I've noticed the fave gets selected over 4.5 (like today which was selected at 4.7). I can only put that down to at the 10 second mark the horse is trading at 4.5 and then by the time the bot fires the bet it has gone out slightly.

RESULTS

The results today could not have been any better (literally) as they were struck after only 2 qualifying races. I don't think that will happen again very often (if not at all). I will list my ACTUAL bets as the $25 profit stop bets as they are the same.

TODAY
$25 Profit Stop +26.03
No Stops -31.46

TOTALS - 10 days
$25 Profit Stop +211.20
No Stops -94.34

Profit 21.12 Units (based on $10 per race being 1 unit as suggested by Bhagwan and with 5% commission deducted)

Full Market Name Selection Price Profit And Loss Identifier
AUS / Mngl (AUS) 20th Dec / 12:20 R1 2300m Trot S 3. Yankee Eyes 4.78 18.91 Second
AUS / Mngl (AUS) 20th Dec / 12:20 R1 2300m Trot S 7. Distribution 4.2 -5 First
AUS / Kyne (AUS) 20th Dec / 13:00 R1 1125m 3yo 7. Milwaukee Belle 4.7 18.5 First
AUS / Kyne (AUS) 20th Dec / 13:00 R1 1125m 3yo 3. In Spirit 5.2 -5 Second

I feel the SR could be enhanced by trying to avoid races where outsiders are known to get up .

Those outsider races, are usually races where there are 12+ runners in a race.
So...
Maybe ones SR should be higher if one targets races where there are 11 runners & less.

The average SR for the top 2 in the market is approx 50% (30+20)

I dont know what the 3 percentage points difference makes , but it does appear to be logical.

The highest SR is 6 runners & less.

What also helps a lot is avoiding races where fields have first starters in them.
This tells us that there can be surprises in store for us.
So
Maybe only target fields where all horses have had 1+ career starts.

With a system like this there is no real way to test except live testing.

I don't think there is any system tester to test it, you could design one if you have the raw data.

Stopping for the day at a profit/loss point may not sound logical to the old pros that say if you have the prices and the strike rate then there is no last race it is just a continuous cycle.

But we all know to win in the game you need to be different from the rest, and this is just that being different but with some logic to it.

Thanks guys for the feedback although, as usual, it looks like I'm onto yet another loser. :rolleyes: :(

RESULTS

TODAY
$25 Profit Stop/$50 Trailing Stop Loss -46.09
No Stops -14.57

TOTALS - 11 days
$25 Profit Stop +165.11
No Stops -108.91

Profit 15 Units (based on $10 per race being 1 unit and with 5% commission deducted)

Full Market Name Selection Price Profit And Loss Identifier
AUS / EFrm (AUS) 21st Dec / 13:58 R1 1815m CL4 2. Goldcat 0 0 First
AUS / EFrm (AUS) 21st Dec / 13:58 R1 1815m CL4 3. Underthebonnet 2.84 9.2 Second
AUS / AnPk (AUS) 21st Dec / 14:07 R4 515m Heat 6. Romantic Time 3.65 -5 First
AUS / AnPk (AUS) 21st Dec / 14:07 R4 515m Heat 8. Mr Defiant 4 -5 Second
AUS / Wyng (AUS) 21st Dec / 14:25 R3 1600m 3yo 4. Komodo 4 -5 First
AUS / Wyng (AUS) 21st Dec / 14:25 R3 1600m 3yo 12. Urban Rocker 4.4 -5 Second
AUS / EFrm (AUS) 21st Dec / 14:33 R2 1000m Mdn 9. Starlistic 4.2 16 First
AUS / EFrm (AUS) 21st Dec / 14:33 R2 1000m Mdn 4. Gesticulation 4.8 -5 Second
AUS / Mead (AUS) 21st Dec / 14:49 R10 600m Gr5 1. Pacquiao 3.1 10.5 First
AUS / Mead (AUS) 21st Dec / 14:49 R10 600m Gr5 2. Beau Brummell 3.4 -5 Second
AUS / Wyng (AUS) 21st Dec / 15:00 R4 1350m Wltr 6. Ocrikey 4.6 -5 First
AUS / Wyng (AUS) 21st Dec / 15:00 R4 1350m Wltr 1. Parthian 5.3 -5 Second
AUS / EFrm (AUS) 21st Dec / 15:08 R3 1600m Mdn 5. Mako Shark 4.04 -5 First
AUS / EFrm (AUS) 21st Dec / 15:08 R3 1600m Mdn 7. Dreams And Wishes 4.62 18.1 Second
AUS / Gawl (AUS) 21st Dec / 16:08 R6 2122m Hcap 3. The Catcher 4 -5 First
AUS / Gawl (AUS) 21st Dec / 16:08 R6 2122m Hcap 2. Rikbat 4.4 -5 Second
AUS / Wyng (AUS) 21st Dec / 16:20 R6 1600m Hcap 1. Above All 3.9 -5 First
AUS / Wyng (AUS) 21st Dec / 16:20 R6 1600m Hcap 3. Kiev 4.2 -5 Second
AUS / EFrm (AUS) 21st Dec / 16:28 R5 1500m Hcap 6. Man From Oz 4.1 15.5 First
AUS / EFrm (AUS) 21st Dec / 16:28 R5 1500m Hcap 8. Count Your Fingers 4.3 -5 Second
AUS / Asct (AUS) 21st Dec / 16:53 R3 1400m Hcap 2. Durrahmoore 2.78 -5 First
AUS / Asct (AUS) 21st Dec / 16:53 R3 1400m Hcap 4. Resetgold 3 10 Second
AUS / Asct (AUS) 21st Dec / 17:33 R4 1600m Hcap 2. Mac It Is 4.7 -5 First
AUS / Asct (AUS) 21st Dec / 17:33 R4 1600m Hcap 8. Ranchers Gold 5 -5 Second
AUS / Bath (AUS) 21st Dec / 18:40 R2 2130m Pace M 4. Double Tick 3.05 -5 First
AUS / Bath (AUS) 21st Dec / 18:40 R2 2130m Pace M 9. Laughing Game 2.98 -5 Second
AUS / Redc (AUS) 21st Dec / 19:23 R2 1780m Pace M 7. Macmillan 4.04 -5 First
AUS / Redc (AUS) 21st Dec / 19:23 R2 1780m Pace M 8. And Heres Johnny 3.95 -5 Second
AUS / Ball (AUS) 21st Dec / 19:39 R3 450m Gr5 8. Whodat Lass 4.16 -5 First
AUS / Ball (AUS) 21st Dec / 19:39 R3 450m Gr5 5. Risk It All 4.7 -5 Second
AUS / Dapt (AUS) 21st Dec / 19:46 R3 297m Final 5. My Girl Mawbo 4.5 17.5 First
AUS / Dapt (AUS) 21st Dec / 19:46 R3 297m Final 7. Star Gun 5 -5 Second
AUS / Redc (AUS) 21st Dec / 19:50 R3 2040m Pace M 4. Miss Abbey 4.2 16 First
AUS / Redc (AUS) 21st Dec / 19:50 R3 2040m Pace M 3. Black Cruiser 4.55 -5 Second
AUS / Asct (AUS) 21st Dec / 19:58 R8 1100m Hcap 4. Sky Balloon 4.1 -5 First
AUS / Asct (AUS) 21st Dec / 19:58 R8 1100m Hcap 2. Cool Corona 4.7 -5 Second
AUS / Kilm (AUS) 21st Dec / 20:03 R4 1690m Pace M 9. Tallyho Bromac 3.9 -5 First
AUS / Kilm (AUS) 21st Dec / 20:03 R4 1690m Pace M 11. Nickle Miss 3.85 -4.99 Second
AUS / Laun (AUS) 21st Dec / 20:08 R5 1200m CL2 1. Arties Spur 4 -5 First
AUS / Laun (AUS) 21st Dec / 20:08 R5 1200m CL2 3. Los Skybo 4.5 -5 Second

Any updates on this, i like the idea and would like to give it a try.

Another $44.44 loss yesterday so I haven't bothered doing it today.

favourites
 

************** have a system where they throw the fav. out and back the next two to make x amount called the $100. per day plan.i think you can get the original plan for free from the website.

Whoah now - Wait a minute!
 

I'm not sure about that one oldtimers.

This morning, before I saw your post, I went through the stats for all 12 days of the "system" to see if I could figure out what was going wrong. Now, I know, 12 days is stuff all and I've had systems before where they just turn around mid-stream even though it has been going well (kinda like this one I suppose), :D but I thought I'd look into it to see if I can make it fit (even though it will again probably turn around and go AWOL). :rolleyes:

I came up with the following;
The total ongoing loss (not stopping) for backing both the 1st and 2nd faves when they were within 3% winning chance was -153.35.

I looked at just the 1st fave when the normal rules were met +114.09 (with 5% commission deducted). MMmmm.
I looked at just the 2nd fave when the normal rules were met -218.50 (with 5% commission deducted). MMMMMMmmm.

What if I use the same conditions and instead of backing them both I back the 1st fave and LAY the 2nd fave. Although I haven't got the lay figures if I take off 20% of the back price which I think is probably too much for the 2nd fave (with 5% commission already deducted) I end up with +174.80.

Sssoooo, when all conditions are met;
Backing the 1st fave & laying the 2nd fav would of produced;
+288.89 profit (using $5 level stakes on both back and lay bets over the 12 day period).

As I said previously, I have NO idea if this will work long term. I was trying a system for nearly 3 months that seemed to go alright at the start but just turned around and gave back any gains so, for sure, that's what's probably going to happen here as I can't see the 2nd fave losing, as much as it's done in this testing period, throughout the year.

Talk about manipulating the stats to suit my own purposes. ;)

I'll give it a go today and see what happens using the exact same rules as originally posted (Gallops, Harness & Greyhounds, provided the 3% rule and the max $4.50 for the 1st fave is used) and betting all day and night (no stops at this stage) but of course backing the 1st fave and laying the 2nd fave. What could possibly go wrong?

fav"s plan
 

i have not ,as yet tried the $100 per day plan,but based in the book it works on the fav winning less than 30% of races and you just keep going until you reach your target.it does not chase losses as such,but make your own mind up on that. it also states that it was used every day for 3 months and never had a losing day. cheers