Useless bettors diary
 

I am just going to record my bets and any changes I make to the systems I am following in here. This is for my personal records only that is why it is in general chat. All systems came from this forum and were retested on my site testyoursystem.000space.com

Dec 24th : 97 bets for Profit 86.50
Dec 25th : No Bets
Dec 26th : 128 bets for Profit 38.53

Running total (includes previous days in Dec) : 2648 bets for 211.62 Profit. This is 7.9% profit on turnover.

I am currently using 18 systems all found on this forum. Most are very old systems from a couple of members who no longer post.

I am always looking to add more.

Well done UB. :)

I don't suppose you could let us anything about 1 or 2 systems you're talking about? My one and only system has hit the skids (like they all do) :rolleyes: :(

They are all from here and are a combination of Chrome Princes, Michaelg, wesmip1, darkydog and bhagawan I have made adjustments to the rules/ideas they all posted after some testing. It just takes time to monitor them and work out the ones that work. But so far I have found about 2-3 out of every 10 systems I test seem to be showing a long term profit.

Yesterdays results were :

121 selections for a loss of 37.86

As I expected after 2 great days of profit I had a day of losing. I would not be surprised to lose again today. You can't profit everyday and to keep myself in check I remember the long term strike rate and average and compare my recent results to that. I am still a long way in front of the long term average in the past week.

I emailed wesmip1 back in the day and we had a bit of a chat about a few things and he told me about one of his systems that seemed to work for him a treat but as soon as I started doing it, it went crap for me (but not for him). Go figure. That's my luck, the unluckiest gambler ever I would say (and that's no bull).

Anyway, you say that 18 systems may be too many to test but he said to me he was running 85 systems. :eek:

So you're only a baby at this. :) And he's me that can't even find one that actually works. :rolleyes:

Whatever happened to wesmip1 I wonder? I heard he went to the USA but he never posted again that I know of. :(

Wow 85 systems. Even some of the ones I run are just above break even so I couldn't imagine finding 85 systems in a lifetime.

All the ones I am testing could fall over tomorrow so I only bet very small stakes with them. I don't have any trust in them yet. Although the one that Chrome Prince came up with for the $20-80 range on betfair seems to be going very well for me.

Hi UB,

I wanted to alert you to something unfortunately.
I have gone through the Betfair data, and it is completely wrong.
So unless you have your own data, ditch my idea, because the data was dirty.

This is only the tip of the iceberg from the errors I found:

a) non runners included
b) large chunks of races missing data
c) Winners missing
d) dead heats not accounted for, i.e. the price is the same for deadheats.
e) results and placings missing

All in all very disappointing, I cleaned it up as best I could, but the data was too far gone.
This is the data from their csv files.

their Csv files are terrible.

I used my own data to confirm your findings and added some extra filters.

I need to update this diary. I might do it later tonight. I added 2 new systems in the last couple of days which have both made a small profit.

Time for an update:

Dec 24th : 97 bets for Profit 86.50
Dec 25th : No Bets
Dec 26th : 128 bets for Profit 38.53
Dec 27th : 121 bets for a loss of 37.86
Dec 28th : 92 bets for a loss of 31.93
Dec 29th : 110 bets for a loss of 32.78
Dec 30th : 214 bets for a profit of 43.45


I hit no long shots on the 27th, 28th, or 29th. This hurt the results as I went over 100 bets on these systems without hitting anything. Considering over those 3 days I was down about 100 it shows this was important.

On the 30th Dec I added 2 new systems. One bets place and one bets the win market. Today I have added a few more systems which concentrate on the favourites. See my ratings update for some of them.

So far today I have had a few bes and am showing a small profit of 2.11

All my results are from betfair and are done with 5% commission.

Dec 31 : 343 selections for a profit 28.81

I am going to do some analysis now as its a new year and see if I should drop a few of these systems.

So a little bit of quick analysis shows that my lay bets have on average a 10% advantage before commission. This turns into a profit of approximately 2%.

My betting on longer then $10 selections has an advantage of 7% before commission. Due to the few winners, many losers the profit after commission is 10.4%. This is only on 608 bets though. Not really enough to make a decision but my gut feeling is this is very hard on me. Loser after loser is not great. My strike rate is only 4.7%

My betting on all horses at or under $10 has an advantage of 11.3% before commission. This turns into a profit of approximately 9.8%. The strike rate of this range is 40%.

Place betting is going on almost dead even after a lot of bets.

So I think I'll leave it as it is for the moment and reevaluate half way through this month.

For interest sake my bet count for Decemeber was 3528 selections. More then enough action to keep any punter happy.

Added a new system today. Its showing a long term profit of 2.4% over thousands of bets.

Jan 01 : 199 selections for a loss of -16.40

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Of the above the longshot systems contributed -12.05 from 33 bets.

On the 31st they contributed -23.48

In fact since the 27th December its contributed a loss of -95.71. Taking out those selections from the 27th December till today I would have a profit of $49.00 instead of a loss of $-46.71

Now I know if I hit 2 selections at $50 I am back to even but Im not sure I can take the losing runs. It would also have been nice to have been up $49 during the last 6 days.

Looking at how the systems are going it seems the other systems hold off the loses from the long shot systems and keep my results to break even and then when I hit a long shot my profit jumps. I am still showing a profit for long shots so still undecided on keeping/throwing away the long shot systems.

Any advice ?

Sometimes profitable systems aren't actually viable.
It might be profitable, but the run of outs is psychologically or financially too draining.
Your money might be better invested in other areas.
I've found this quite a bit and have dropped quite a few methods that do work, but just aren't practical for my purposes.

I agree with you. At this stakes level I can handle it. At a higher stakes level I may not be able to.

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Jan 02 : 398 selections for a loss of -81.95
Jan 03 : 192 selections for a loss of -27.00

I am running a couple of systems that I have no idea of their profitability. These are harness racing related so they may not be around for long if they don't perform.