Bookies Openers or Ratings ?
 

I've finally come to the realisation that either Pre Post or Opening Price or Starting Price should be a part of any simple system one develops. I've got a couple of decent systems, very few bets mind you, and both have been improved quite significantly with SP filters between and including 4/1 and 9/1.

Pre-Post seem to be a good place to start a system off, but aren't these odds just a reflection of someones rating system? I think they are, and I still can't get my head around why I should be following someone's rating system. Everyone else seems to be doing it and that's not a good thing for a decent POT.

I think that the bookies Opening Prices would be a far better guide than a ratings service or Pre-Post odds (I'm assuming these are based on a ratings service).

So who's right ..... bookies or a ratings service ?????

The bookies openers might be telling us some stuff that we don't know.

Somebody on this forum (apologies, as I don't recall who) once wrote that " The pre-post price reflects what we know, the SP odds reflect what we don't know as well ".

Or something along those lines, which I have found to be quite true.

Most Punters back the best this and the best that.
This causes the Odds of those particular conveyances to be Overbet.
Look elsewhere to find animals that contain Value.

ROBOT
 

BARNEY.
How lovely to see you posting again. After your call for help I was truly sorry to hear such news . Hoping you have recovered and your presence will shine again.
Regards and healthy wishes for the new year
TOM the ROBOT
P S Hope I am not out of order replying in this thread.

Jose

You're paraphrasing me there. I think it was a Pixie-ism along the lines of

"Ratings tell us what we know - the market tells us what we don't know"

I think the Bhagwan paraphrased a Pixie truism in another recent thread - "Never lay a first starter, never lay a resumer".

I'm full of them, or it ;)

Can't argue against that logic, I too remember the comment very well.

However, like all markets, there is still information that is only known by a select few (and one of them can't talk ..... unless you're Mr Ed), and isn't factored into the market.

Or Wilbur Post :D

Yes AP that sounds something like it, and it does ring true as well.

Barny I'd disagree that the private information isn't factored in. If you're talking about the pre race "indicative" markets then you're right. If you watch the Betfair markets in near real time, if it's there, you'll quite often see the private information come into play.

The upcoming R6 at Queanbeyan. $8000 came on Vavavic and was match for the lay in less that a second.

Nice pay day at 1.73 for that layer. Happened so quickly that nobody even noticed. They continues to back it into the 1.60 range. ;)

Yeah, sounds logical, the money has got to show up somewhere doesn't it? I was thinking about things like bloodcounts (the only reason I know anything about them is what I've read, no personal experience at a stable) where the only ones who would know would amount to a couple of people. So starting price tells us that there's something we don't know.

cheers AngryPixie

Starting price and the market fluctuations. They disappear in a blink - quite literally. You can take advantage of them though. ;)

In general the more the real market differs from your rated price, the less accurate your rated price is. The market rules here I'm afraid. Everything else in variance.

Morp 6, 10 Gold Bundle. Unusually large (in relative terms) lay bet taken very quickly.

Nice. Pop a lay in one or two ticks below the smart money, and trade out in running.

Everything else IS variance :o