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-   -   Classic case of being awake. (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=23276)

Mark 23rd January 2012 03:07 PM

Classic case of being awake.
 
Globe Deby trots R5, horse breaks stride causing 2 false starts and is disqualified. Was trading around 5.4 - 5.5 but the reduction was zero, that's right zilch (layers get done again but that's another story).
There was time, and yes I did get on, to back every other runner for a guaranteed profit. I got on @ 90%.

Mark 26th January 2012 02:58 PM

Hope you all got on Kyneton R4.
Late scr at around 16.....reduction =11.1%..........thank you.
SP 108.5%, very nice.

Sands 26th January 2012 04:24 PM

Yep very nice!

Mark 7th February 2012 02:12 PM

Taree R4, 1 Good Manners $31 freely available with the books, laid on BF @ 18, nice work. ps, who cares where it runs.

darkydog2002 7th February 2012 02:24 PM

I would have been still cleaning my undies.

Mark 7th February 2012 03:00 PM

Why?, it was a good winner, win lose or draw.

darkydog2002 7th February 2012 03:26 PM

I suppose because Good Manners ran 2nd.
Was it beaten by much?
Cheers
darky

Sands 7th February 2012 03:42 PM

Beaten 2.5L ;)

Mark 7th February 2012 04:03 PM

The whole point is to make money, I think, maybe I'm wrong.
It didn't matter if it won.
It didn't matter if it ran a place.
It didn't matter if it ran last.
I made a profit so long as it went around.

Mark 7th February 2012 04:04 PM

Just giving examples of what can be done.

darkydog2002 7th February 2012 04:30 PM

I,m not up with this new fangled Betfair stuff.

Sands 7th February 2012 04:41 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark
The whole point is to make money, I think, maybe I'm wrong.
It didn't matter if it won.
It didn't matter if it ran a place.
It didn't matter if it ran last.
I made a profit so long as it went around.

Yep another example, classic case of being awake

moeee 7th February 2012 05:01 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark
Taree R4, 1 Good Manners $31 freely available with the books, laid on BF @ 18, nice work. ps, who cares where it runs.


I can't quite see how you win here.
Could you please post your exact wagers on this race so I can understand how it works?

Shaun 7th February 2012 06:17 PM

Not sure how much the bookies will take but lets just say you could back it for $200
Back $200x$31=profit $6000
Lay $344.44x$18=liability $5855



Win or lose you collect about $144 a bit less on the loss because of commission.

The calculation to work it out is Stake x backprice/layprice

moeee 7th February 2012 07:00 PM

Shaun
 
So if it wins I collect $6000 take away $5855 what I lost on Betfair.

And if it Loses , how much do I get back from Betfair?

moeee 7th February 2012 07:19 PM

Ah okay
I see it now

I get back $344 minus 5% means about $330 .
And take away the $200 on the Bookies leaves $130 Profit.

Be funny if after backing it at $31 and going to Betfair to lay it , the Punters decided they dont want to back it any more.

Shaun 7th February 2012 07:19 PM

$327.21 after commission less the $200 for the back bet so $127.21

Shaun 7th February 2012 07:27 PM

This is the same formula used when trading but if you were laying first it would be
lay stake x layodds/backodds

This gives you equal profit win or lose minus commission.

Mark 7th February 2012 07:47 PM

Cheers Shaun, you're pretty much spot on.

Had $200 @ 31, and laid $363 @ 17.12.

Wins = +$6000 - (363 x 16.12) = +$148.44
Loses = -$200 + (363 x 95.45%) = +$146.48

I'm on 4.6% commission.

All I look for are runners that are 95% or less of the bookies price, and that there's plenty of liquidity. Yesterday there were none but today I got on 10 which is very unusual, and just missed a few others.

Shaun 7th February 2012 08:17 PM

How many bookie sites do you look at?

Mark 7th February 2012 09:04 PM

I have a/c's with just 2, IAS & Sportsbet.

Shaun 7th February 2012 09:17 PM

Have a look at this mob you might like what they offer. https://www.theoddsbroker.com/home.htm

Mark 8th February 2012 09:18 AM

Any advantage to this Shaun?

Shaun 8th February 2012 09:55 AM

I don't use them myself as i mainly use betfair but i have an account, they offer prices on 3 or more bookies and you can see the betfair price, at the moment you can't bet in to betfair but they say this will change in the future so you can.

For anyone out there that use the TAB you can bet all 3 tottes at once or select the tote you want, it is a bit like that site http://www.dynamicodds.com/ but on a smaller scale and free to use.

Shaun 8th February 2012 10:05 AM

Mark, just on another note what is best, to back with the bookie first or get your lay amount on first?

Sands 8th February 2012 10:13 AM

Yeah good question Shaun, what about it Mark? Timing / betting order make any difference?


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