Thoughts
 

Has anyone got any statistics on dual acceptances and racing at the weaker/stronger race??

Just recently I have seen a couple of horses scr from the higher grade race to win the lower class event, however Disco Music scr from Narrogin 5 today to ran in Narrogin 6 paid $36.60 unitab

I don't have any stats but I always pay close attention to dual acceptors, they tend to win quite often and at very good prices.

If dual acceptances were a useful method of making a horse run faster , then I'm sure the more succesful trainers, if not all trainers would employ it.

It is what is called an optical delusion.
And because uninformed Punters are attracted to this sort of factor , then the animals will be overbet and lead to losses.

Nobody said it made them run faster mate, I believe I said that I pay close attention to them. You should really learn to read what is actually written instead of making up your own version.

It's a good guide to how the horse is going in it's preparation or race fitness.
If the trainer scratches the horse from an Open at Morphettville and lets it run in the Listed race, it's a pretty good guide that the trainer thinks the horse is up to it.
It's a useful guide, nothing more.

http://www.racingandsports.com.au/r...ings.asp?type=3

And there have been some big priced winners come out of it.

Don't have statistics as such, but have been following this aspect amongst others like when a good jockey goes to a minor provincial meeting for a single ride, for a long time.

It is a very useful angle but make sure why they are nominated and then scratched form one meeting or other.

About 95% of the time it's simply the fact that they can't find a race because of too many nominations. If a chance exists for a more suitable race then of course it makes sense for the trainer to take it.

But as always, the horse must be good enough to win in the first place.

Often I have used a unitab rating of 96+ for an emergency horse in a race. If scratched and nominated in another race of lower grade, it has a good strike rate.

Wanted to apply a couple more filters and see if we had a system for the future.

You have been TOUd. Please do not speak to other forum members in this manner. No more warnings. Thank you. Moderator 3.

moeee, gotta say some of your responses are fairly similar ..... ie; the overbet thingy. They ALL can't be overbet. Maybe you're struggling to find an angle. Me, I've just about given up on basic form, you know, the stuff that jumps off the page at you, form like 4s123 etc, etc, weights, jockeys, barriers, blah, blah.

Constructively putting together useful information is my aim. I cannot work out which horses are overbet tho', perhaps you could help me to identify them.

Bhagwan is one for suggesting the topweight is overbet (I'm generalising here Bhagwan), and my perception is that is totally the opposite in your general handicap field. Totally the opposite, I see the toppie as good value.

So moeee, could you give me a clue as to how you identify an overbet horse.

Woof43 would be the man to ask for assistance.
Search him out - on this Forum and wherever.

What he suggests is you run through a database of results.
it must be quite Huge.
Chrome prince I think has that.
Or useless better has a Free website.

you eliminate a certain facter from the results.
then you see whether your profit margin improves
if it does , then there is good possibility that that factor is overbet by the public.
But there must be a basis for your factors.

things to try might be like the bottom weight to win.
topweight to win.
Obvious things that attract Punters.

I delve deep into study of a race.
and i treat each race individually.
My comments are based on common sense rather than any practical knowledge.
But I do know that Woof43 has been making a substantial living from Joe Publics errors.
Like I said , search his posts.
type in say "overbet" in this Forum search panel.
perhaps use advanced to include only woof43

No more posts like this. Thank you. Moderator 3.

You have been TOUd Moeee. Please tone down your posts directed to other forum members. No more warnings. Thank you. Moderator 3.

Bhagwan is one for suggesting the topweight is overbet (I'm generalising here Bhagwan), and my perception is that is totally the opposite in your general handicap field. Totally the opposite, I see the toppie as good value.

Hi Barney
That above was in relation to the top tip given out by certain tipsters like RadioTAB
Not top weight, which can be anything in price.

Cheers.

Ahhhhhhh, there you go eh? You use the word toppie, I think you're talking about the topweight.

Back to Investigative Skills 101 for me ...............

thanks bhagwan

I now checked it over a few months data and as a general rule, FORGET it.
The obvious ones are short and still fail, unless you find a genuine reason something like what CP suggested, it's a loser, not worth bothering about.

I combine it with ratings and it works in a fashion, but I also eliminate them when they are declared as late mail.

Good luck