Testing Two Systems
 

This month I’m going to test out two systems and see how they go. If they fall over BIG TIME in the first few days or week I’ll stop testing them. I know the forum curse will strike for sure but hopefully we can ride it out.

BACKING FAVOURITES $2 AND UNDER :rolleyes:
The first system for testing is backing the first fave if it is $2 and under. This will be for the gallops and trots.

UB’s system tester has the following stats for the gallops since August 2011:
There were 53754 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time.
There were 560 selections for the System
There were 324 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 57.86%
There were $540.75 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $-19.25 or a percentage profit/loss of -3.44%

So a $19 loss in 6 months.

The twist I will be using is that I will use 100% of the profit of the previous bet onto the base stake for the next bet.

For example - Say $1 stake. The first bet will be $1 at say $1.80 fave. It wins making me a profit of $0.80. This means the stake for the next bet is $1.80 ($1 stake + 80c profit). The next fave is $1.70. If this wins the profit will be $1.26 (win bet $3.06-stake of $1.80). This means that the next bet will be $1.26 plus the base stake of $1 making it $2.26.

It is basically a 2 x parlay/all up bet. This way when a loss occurs (and we have some wins in the bank) then we will end up with more profit than betting level stakes – well that’s the theory anyway. I’m sure some of you can shoot me down here but we’ll see what happens.

I’ve only tested it for the last few days and it has been a bit up and down but overall in profit +3.98, -1.41, +14.23, -5.75, +5.87 for a total of +16.92 units.

I will not have a profit stop but I will have a stop loss of say –6 units. I will adjust the stop up (if it’s in profit) to 6 units behind the total after a loss. I won’t use a pure trailing stop as, if a big bet loses, I would be stopped out however I would of only lost 1 unit in that case.

I will be betting for real at the minimum $5 betfair amount (as I reckon I’ll get in trouble pretty soon if I keep up the $1 bets). This makes the stop loss $30. I can only really afford to throw about $100 at this (that’s about 3 losing days), which is not much, but as I’ve had many bad experiences with system betting I don’t want to spend too much on it (I just want to find something that works automatically).

I hope it makes sense. I will list my other system for testing on another post.

PLACE SYSTEM

My other system for testing is a place system with the gallops. It seems to make a little bit of money but nothing spectacular. It’s probably hardly worth doing but maybe someone out there can tweak the staking or something, as it doesn’t do much at level stakes.

The selection criteria is 3 fold;
1. Betfair must be paying 3 places (less than 8 runners is fine as long as they are paying 3 places).
2. For Maiden races horse must have come 2nd in one of it’s last 3 starts (1 or 2 starts is fine as long as it’s come 2nd) Unitab used for checking.
2a. For all other races horse must have come 1st in one of it’s last 3 starts (1 or 2 starts is fine as long as it’s come 1st) Unitab used for checking.
3. Pick is the horse that is between $2 and $3 on the place market. If there is more than one selection then the pick is the one that is closest to $2 (the smaller dividend).

That’s it. I haven’t tested this too much so it probably won’t pan out but I have checked about 5 different days and it has been in profit on all those days.

I haven’t got time today to list any possible picks but I will in future if time permits. The selections can be easily checked on Unitab and the results on the Betfair results page (remember last 3 starts only).

The only other staking that I can think of (apart form the level stakes I will be checking them against) is maybe the 100% of previous profit (or maybe 50%) but I haven’t checked that.

I’m NOT using real money on this as I will using my account on the other system.

Selections for place system from the first 3 race meetings listed on TABonline (Unitab). It seems like a lot of bother for probably not many bets but I'll see what happens over the next few days. I might also check the other meetings tonight to see what would of happened.

Remember the selection is the closest to $2 for the place (paying 3 places).

Course Race Horse
Eagle Farm
2 - 1 3 11 12 15
4 - 1
5 - 2 9 13
6 - 6 9 11 12
7 - 1 4 5 10 12 13

Sandown
1 - 2 7
4 - 4 7 8
5 - 1 3 5 11 13 15 16 17
6 - 2 5 6 9 10 12
7 - 3 4 13

Kembla Grange
1 - 1 2 4 7
2 - 3 5 7 8 9
3 - 2 3 6 7
5 - 1 3 6 8
6 - 2 8
7 - 4 10 12

What do YOU think happened today? Of course I lost (what else was ever going to happen)? :rolleyes:

Results 1/2/12
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Odds On Fave System
This continued on from where it left off in pre-testing – WLWLW next was a………….you guessed it - Loss. This seems to be up and down unfortunately (1 unit is $5 for me by the way :( ).

13 bets
7 wins
53.8% SR
Profit/Loss –5.55 Units
(Results have 5% commission deducted)
--------------------------------------
Place System
The place system ended up great for the selections listed here but when I checked the other races today it fell right away. I might be better off just doing the main Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane races (whatever the first 3 meetings that are listed on the Unitab site are on the day).

The results for the 3 listed were:
Outlay 9 Units
Winnings 15.24 Units
Profit +6.24 Units (69% POT)

But Overall;
Outlay 25 Units
Winnings 23.91 Units
Loss –1.09 Units
(Results have 5% commission deducted)
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By the way, my other bot was employed today doing the above place system but instead of using the picks it was merely picking the horse that was between $2 & $3 but the one closest to $2 in the place market, which included gallops and trots races. Because it went okay today I might also monitor that as it is an automatic set up rather than trawling the racing web site.

45 bets
23 wins
51.11% SR
Profit/Loss +6.20 Units
POT 13.77%
(Results have 5% commission deducted)

Possible selections for today for the place system (one runner, 3 places paid, lowest price above $2 for the place):

Course Race Horse
Rockhampton
1- 1 3 4 7 8
5- 2 3 5 9 10
6- 2 3 4 7
7- 4 5 8 11
8- 4 7 10

Hawkesbury
2- 6
3- 8
4- 1 12
5- 1
6- 3
7- 3 4 5 7 9
8- 2 4 8 10

Ballarat
1- 1 3 5 6 9 15
2- 1 9 12
5- 2 3 5 7
6- 4 7 9
7- 4 5 7 8 9
8- 2 3 4 5 6 7

Geraldton
1- 3 5
2- 2 11 12
4- 7
5- 1 2 5 7
6- 3 4 6 8 9 11
7- 2 3 6 8 10 11

I’ve stoped the bots with 4 Gloucester Park races to go as it is time for updating (and sleeping).

Results 2/2/12
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Odds On Fave System (Gallops & Trots)
A bit up and down today but only a very small gain today.

Today
18 bets
12 wins
66.6% SR
Profit/Loss +0.64 Units

Overall
31 bets
19 wins
61.2% SR
Profit/Loss –4.91 Units :(
(Results have 5% commission deducted)
--------------------------------------
Selected Place System (Gallops Only)
GREAT result today. Now that’s what I’m talkin’ about!! :D

11 eligible races & only 1 loss. It doesn’t get much better than that (except one better)!

Results are in the attachment below.

Today
Outlay 11 Units
Winnings 21.50 Units
Profit/Loss +10.50 Units
POT 95.4%

Overall;
Outlay 36 Units
Winnings 45.41 Units
Profit/Loss +9.41 Units :)
POT 26.1%
(Results have 5% commission deducted)
------------------------------------------------
$2+ Any Horse Place System (Gallops & Trots)

Today
40 bets
18 wins
45% SR
Profit/Loss +1.31 Units

Overall
85 bets
41 wins
48.2% SR
Profit/Loss +7.51 Units :)
POT 8.8%
(Results have 5% commission deducted)

Well done Ocho.

I do believe a profit can be had doing the place market.

I have been running my bot set to 2.20-5.50 Place price range & its been working a treat.
On Aust + UK+ US Horses & UK Dogs

My Bot can bet to...
Price to Take out 5%
or
Odds to win 3%

Target Profit 10%
Over 20 races.
With the option to re-down load & go again.

I noticed a dramatic increase in profit when Min price was set to 2.20 instead of 2.00 . Rightly or wrongly
It doesnt look much different in price but after say 50 bets it makes a big difference to POT.

Hi Bhagwan. Thanks for that.

With your settings of 2.20-5.50 are you backing ALL horses/dogs in that price range for the place or just a random one?

-------------------------------
I won't be listing the possible place selections today as they are too numerous to mention. There should be no shortage of races today to have a contender racing in. The rules need to apply though.

Its one selection per race.

If it's one selection per race then why such a wide price range? And does the bot take the closest to $2.50 or what?

Good point The Ocho. I'm bewildered too.

No , the Bot does not take the closest to a price. e.g. 2.50

But I can set it to do that if I wish.

Why are you bewildered Barnie?
I did not think you were into Bots.

So it's taking one at random, Bhagwan?

UPDATE
I’ve stoped the bots for the night. I don’t seem to be going very well (what’s new though)?

Results 3/2/12
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Odds On Fave System (Gallops & Trots)

A lot better today (about time).

Today
18 bets
12 wins
66.6% SR
Profit/Loss +5.87 Units

Overall
49 bets
31 wins
63.2% SR
Profit/Loss +0.96 Units
(Results have 5% commission deducted)
--------------------------------------
Selected Place System (Gallops Only)

Today
Outlay 32 Units
Winnings 33 Units
Profit/Loss +1 Unit
POT 3%

Overall;
Outlay 68 Units
Winnings 78.41 Units
Profit/Loss +10.41 Units
POT 15.3%
(Results have 5% commission deducted)
------------------------------------------------
$2+ Any Horse Place System (Gallops & Trots)

Bad day today! I might change it to $2.20+ from tomorrow. I’ll run some preliminary, premature stats and see.

Today
40 bets
15 wins
39.47% SR
Profit/Loss –7.08 Units

Overall
125 bets
56 wins
44.8% SR
Profit/Loss +0.43 Units
POT 0%
(Results have 5% commission deducted)

Hi Ocho.
With that Odds-on approach.

Can you set your Bot to bet to Price.
Where price is divided into a take out figure.

Example Betting to Price
2.00 into $10 = O/L $5.00 Ret 10.00 Loses
1.20 into $10 = O/L 8.33 Ret 10.00 Wins
Total O/L 13.33
Shortfall 3.33 = 25% down on O/L

If only one of these 2 wins , then we are only down 25% on O/L
It spreads the Liability.


Example Betting Level Stakes
If betting level stakes & the 1.20 shot wins & the 2.00 shot falls over.
Then it will be down 40% on O/L
2.00 flat stake 6.66 Lose
1.20 flat stake 6.66 Win Ret 8.00
Total O/L 13.32
Shortfall of 5.32 = 40% down to O/L


As we can see here ,there is a difference in the possible shortfalls between 25% & 40% shortfall amounts.
Meaning the selections at level stakes will have to work harder to break even.

This means the even money shots will have to out perform the really short odds on shots & we know that's not going to happen over a 100 bets.
So
Bet to price to get an improvement on returns.
It means you stand a stronger chance of losing less, betting to Price rather than betting to Level stakes.

You could also try Recovery, just for the fun of it, recovery staking set to 110%
This 110% is what makes the thing work really well instead of 100%
Betting 1.00 per 250.00 bank
Allowing for 8 outs in a row.
Min Price 1.55

Hi Bhagwan.

When backing on my bot I can only back outright (say minimum $5) or back with an "amount to win". I think that's the same thing as with those top examples of yours as I would be trying to win $10 and would therefore bet $5 on the $2 pop and $8.33 on the $1.20 pop. So, I guess it is the same thing. :)

I'm not really sure that this odds on faves system of mine would make profits either level stakes OR amount to win just the way it is. That's why I'm trying betting 100% profit of the previous bet on the next bet. Thereby a good sequence will give me a profit with a loss not costing TOO much as it would only lose the $5 stake plus the profit of the previous bet.

As far as the $2+ Any Horse place system goes there doesn't seem to be any noticeable disadvantage backing in the 2.00-2.20 price range compared to the rest (albeit on only 3 days data :oops: ). The only thing I noticed was that the 3rd fav would of been about +10 over the 3 days if that was the only pick (i.e. first 2 faves under $2). Again, only VERY limited data.

I just double checked my "amount to win" settings and in fact it would try and WIN $10 rather than winning $10 which includes the stake. Thus, it would bet $10 on the $2 horse and $50 on the 1.20 horse (as $1 is taken away from the price to determine the win i.e. $50 x 0.20 = $10).

I think I'll stick with this 1x parlay for now which is basically loss recovery in reverse (i.e. back more after a win).

--------------------------
By the way, I am not listing any selections for the place system races as they are again quite numerous (in the amount of selections and the amount of races). I don't think I could really do this in the mornings as I would have to load so many possible selections on to the bot in the morning after going through all the possible races the night before. I reckon it would take more than an hour combined (maybe more) although you don't usually get something for nothing, do you? :rolleyes:

That program of your is betting to odds, not betting to price.

It is not advisable to use that because there is a large disparity in liability
say $50 at 1.20 and $10 at 2.00

If betting to price it would be...
say $8.33 at 1.20 and $5.00 at 2.00

I thought I’d try and manually bet on the selective place system with REAL money (that of course is the minimum $5 amount on Betfair) about 10 seconds before each eligible race came along. What a load of codswallop. BIG loss of -$30 for me (-6 units) before I stopped doing that (using –6 units as the stop loss).

In the meantime I was trying to do a bit of trading and that suffered a bit because of the above.

The $2+ any horse place system went okay but a bit up and down. I was tossing up between putting the $5 real money on one of the place systems. Of course I chose to go with the selective place system. :rolleyes:

Luckily the Odds On Favs system really kicked ass today with 11 winners in a row really improving the total.

Results 4/2/12
--------------------------------------
Odds On Fave System (Gallops & Trots)

A lot LOT better today (especially for $5 per base unit :D ).
And this result was AFTER 6 losing bets out of the last 9 bets stopping me out making the high effectively 23 units.

Today
26 bets
16 wins
61.5% SR
Profit/Loss +17 Units

Overall
75 bets
47 wins
62.6% SR
Profit/Loss +17.96 Units (Overall since testing on 27/1 +37.72 units)
Level Stakes +6.50 Units (Overall since testing on 27/1 +9.80 units)
(Results have 5% commission deducted)
--------------------------------------
Selected Place System (Gallops Only)

This was stopped out today (see above for explanation).
While still in (very slight) profit I will stop doing this one and try and make something automatic for the people (after all, if I want to work all day, I can simply trade on Betfair).

Today
Outlay 19 Units
Winnings 12.31 Units
Profit/Loss –6.69 Units

Overall;
Outlay 87 Units
Winnings 90.72 Units
Profit/Loss +3.72 Units
POT 4.2%
(Results have 5% commission deducted)
------------------------------------------------
$2+ Any Horse Place System (Gallops & Trots)

A bit up and down again as it is running all day. It might help to set a profit stop maybe or I somehow use something other than level stakes. Or, I might try something else altogether.

Today
76 bets
36 wins
47.37% SR
Profit/Loss +2.37 Units

Overall
201 bets
92 wins
45.7% SR
Profit/Loss +2.80 Units
POT 1.3%
(Results have 5% commission deducted)

These are the bot bets today for the odds on system (for $5 per base bet):

Full Market Name Selection... Amount...Price...Profit...And...Loss
NZL / TRap (NZL) 4th Feb / 10:58 R2 1200m Hcap 1. Eight Schillings...5...1.94...4.7
AUS / GCst (AUS) 4th Feb / 12:10 R1 1800m Mdn 8. Croatian Quality...9.7...1.6...-9.7
AUS / GCst (AUS) 4th Feb / 12:45 R2 900m Mdn 1. Coup Rayvan 5 1.71 3.55
AUS / Caul (AUS) 4th Feb / 13:10 R1 1100m Hcap 3. Star Of Giselle 8.55 2.04 -8.55
AUS / Kyne (AUS) 4th Feb / 13:35 R4 1450m Mdn 5. Looksmart 5 2.06 -5
NZL / TRap (NZL) 4th Feb / 13:56 R7 2000m Grp3 1. Ocean Park 5 1.48 -5
AUS / Morp (AUS) 4th Feb / 14:00 R2 1050m Listed 4. Armed For Action 5 1.43 2.15
AUS / Morp (AUS) 4th Feb / 15:20 R4 1800m Qlty 3. Bertucci 7.15 1.75 5.36
AUS / Darw (AUS) 4th Feb / 17:45 R2 1100m Hcap 3. Brace Yourselves 10.36 1.86 8.97
AUS / Toow (AUS) 4th Feb / 17:50 R1 1200m CL2 2. Starstreamed 13.97 2.02 14.25
AUS / APrk (AUS) 4th Feb / 18:10 R1 2138m Pace M 7. Inthelightofday 19.25 2.04 20.02
AUS / Mngl (AUS) 4th Feb / 18:15 R1 2300m Pace M 8. Glengowan 19.25 2.02 19.64
AUS / APrk (AUS) 4th Feb / 18:35 R2 2138m Pace M 10. Good Boys 24.64 1.8 19.71
AUS / Mngl (AUS) 4th Feb / 18:42 R2 1609m Pace M 7. Bainfeild Washington 24.71 1.93 22.98
AUS / GlbD (AUS) 4th Feb / 18:50 R1 2230m Pace M 3. Aitch Cue 24.71 1.76 18.78
AUS / Mngl (AUS) 4th Feb / 19:15 R3 1609m Pace M 9. The Big Mach 23.78 1.51 12.13
AUS / Melt (AUS) 4th Feb / 19:30 R4 2240m Pace M 11. Heza Trick 17.13 1.81 13.88
AUS / Espe (AUS) 4th Feb / 19:58 R5 1600m Hcap 2. Hacketts Heart 18.88 2.02 -18.88
AUS / APrk (AUS) 4th Feb / 20:05 R5 1660m Pace M 3. Sargeant Jujon 5 1.93 -5
AUS / Mngl (AUS) 4th Feb / 20:15 R5 1609m Pace M 3. Our Sixpence 5 1.9 4.5
AUS / Toow (AUS) 4th Feb / 20:22 R5 1050m CL4 1. The Jazzy Prince 9.5 1.61 -9.5
AUS / GlbD (AUS) 4th Feb / 20:25 R4 2230m Pace M 1. Sir S********y 5 1.83 4.15
AUS / APrk (AUS) 4th Feb / 20:40 R6 2138m Pace M 6. Ultimo 9.15 2 -9.15
AUS / Mngl (AUS) 4th Feb / 20:48 R6 1609m Pace M 8. Erle Dale 5 1.91 -5
AUS / Toow (AUS) 4th Feb / 21:00 R6 1200m 3yo 2. Jacks Back 5 2.04 5.2
AUS / Mngl (AUS) 4th Feb / 21:15 R7 1609m Pace M 9. Waltzing With Cullen 10.2 1.96 -10.2

Results 5/2/12
--------------------------------------
Odds On Fave System (Gallops & Trots)
Higher strike rate today but less profit. With this it is when the wins fall (i.e. one after another) which makes all the difference.

Today
24 bets
15 wins
62.5% SR
Profit/Loss +4.14 Units
Level Stakes +2.17 Units

Overall
75 bets
47 wins
62.6% SR
Profit/Loss +22.10 Units (Overall since testing on 27/1 - 10 Days +41.87 units)
Level Stakes +8.67 Units (Overall since testing on 27/1 - 10 Days +11.97 units)
(Results have 5% commission deducted)
-----------------------------------------
$2+ Any Horse Place System (Gallops & Trots)

This seems to be going along quite slow and sometimes steady (except when it loses :rolleyes: ). I’m still running stats to see if I can improve the return without going against the method of picking.

Today
63 bets
30 wins
47.62% SR
Profit/Loss +3.71 Units

Overall
264 bets
122 wins
46.2% SR
Profit/Loss +6.51 Units
POT 2.4%
(Results have 5% commission deducted)

Results Day 6/2/12
--------------------------------------
Odds On Fave System (Gallops & Trots)
Higher strike rate again today but less profit. With this it is when the wins fall (i.e. one after another) which makes all the difference (+ price as well).

I’m toying with the idea of using ratchet % staking where the bet amount goes up but does not drop after losses. So basically level stakes on the way down but a rising stake on the way up.

I'm also not sure of what sort of strike rate is good for odds on faves in the gallops and trots. I may be running quite high (probably am) but may not. If anyone knows please tell us.

Today
17 bets
11 wins
64.7% SR
Profit/Loss +3.42 Units
Level Stakes +0.54 Units

Overall
92 bets
58 wins
63% SR
Profit/Loss +25.52 Units (Overall since testing on 27/1 - 11 Days +45.29 units)
Level Stakes +9.21 Units (Overall since testing on 27/1 - 11 Days +12.51 units)
(Results have 5% commission deducted)
-----------------------------------------
$2+ Any Horse Place System (Gallops & Trots)

No good today for this (which is still in SIM mode). I tried some loss recovery but that didn’t seem to go any good. There were 12 wins and 21 losses. The losses consisted of a 6 in a row and 5 in a row with only 3 bets winning in a row at the end of the day and 2 wins in a row at the start of the day. This means that using the Bhagwan staking plan (where 2 wins are needed in a row) may have ended very badly but the bot played up with the staking so I didn’t follow that through.

I’m thinking of maybe using 100% recovery but the 5 and 6 in a row losses scare me a bit and according to the run of outs for 45% strike rate (not sure if this is running good or not but that’s what its showing currently) then I can expect 12 losses in a row.

It’s back to square one for this, well square zero. I really thought this might work. Hmmmm. *scratches head*

Today
33 bets
12 wins
36.36% SR
Profit/Loss –6.03 Units

Overall
297 bets
134 wins
45.11% SR
Profit/Loss +0.48 Units
POT 0%
(Results have 5% commission deducted)

This does not surprise me.
There are some massive overs on odds on harness horses on Betfair which is contributing to profit.
Some $1.40 shots go round at $1.70.
Some $1.50 shots go round at $1.90.

The thing is, it's very common.

I've noticed that with 5 minutes to go the price will be very high, then get crunched right in some minutes later (drop from $2.40 to $1.70 for example), and once time is running out, the price will blow out again (like back out to $1.80 or $1.90).

Thanks Chrome Prince. I still don't know if the strike rate is average or above or below although it's the wins that happen in a row that matter.

Results Day 7 - 7/2/12
--------------------------------------
Odds On Fave System (Gallops & Trots)

Not much chop today with only a very small gain but anytime there’s a + sign on the daily bank is a good thing.

I’ve decided to bet 1% of a $500 bank adding the amount I’ve won to the bank since the start of Feb making the bank roughly $636 before today. So I’m now betting 1% of this amount which I won’t reduce if a losing day occurs (unless I lose too much). For some reason the closest bet amount on the bot is $6.24 so I was betting that amount today personally. If there is a profit then I will lift up the 1% to match (as close as possible).

I will still record for 1 unit = $1 stakes.

I just noticed when doing this update that 18 of the 20 races today were trots races. I didn't realise there were so many of them.

Today
20 bets
13 wins
65% SR
Profit/Loss +0.75 Units
Level Stakes -0.20 Units

Overall
112 bets
71 wins
63.3% SR
Profit/Loss +26.27 Units (Overall since testing on 27/1 - 12 Days +46.04 units)
Level Stakes +9.01 Units (Overall since testing on 27/1 - 12 Days +12.31 units)
(Results have 5% commission deducted)

Same size bet tomorrow for me as the next bet amount on the bot is $6.86

Full Market Name Selection Amount Price Profit And Loss
AUS / Tare (AUS) 7th Feb / 13:15 R1 1600m Mdn 2. Nonino 6.24 1.75 -6.24
AUS / Mngl (AUS) 7th Feb / 14:05 R2 1609m Pace M 2. Dolce Bella 6.24 2.04 -6.24
AUS / APrk (AUS) 7th Feb / 14:17 R2 1660m Pace M 11. General Bronski 6.24 1.35 2.18
AUS / Mngl (AUS) 7th Feb / 14:40 R3 1609m Pace M 1. Oh Eye See 8.42 1.33 2.78
AUS / APrk (AUS) 7th Feb / 14:52 R3 1660m Pace M 4. Shez No Fake 9.02 1.42 3.79
AUS / Mngl (AUS) 7th Feb / 15:15 R4 1609m Pace M 4. Three Over Three 10.03 1.37 3.71
AUS / APrk (AUS) 7th Feb / 15:27 R4 2138m Pace M 7. Destreos 9.95 1.27 2.69
AUS / Mngl (AUS) 7th Feb / 15:50 R5 1609m Pace M 7. Brick Top 8.93 1.97 -8.93
AUS / Town (AUS) 7th Feb / 17:03 R6 1000m CL3 6. Four Iron 6.24 2 6.24
AUS / APrk (AUS) 7th Feb / 17:25 R7 2138m Pace M 7. Jazzabout 12.48 1.83 10.36
AUS / APrk (AUS) 7th Feb / 18:00 R8 1660m Pace M 4. Whata Shaw Thing 16.6 2 16.6
AUS / GlbD (AUS) 7th Feb / 18:15 R1 1800m Pace M 2. Im The Debt Collector 22.84 2 22.84
AUS / GlbD (AUS) 7th Feb / 18:40 R2 1800m Pace M 2. Bon Ton Boy 29.08 2.04 -29.08
AUS / GlbD (AUS) 7th Feb / 19:10 R3 1800m Pace M 1. Brazilian Monk 6.24 1.57 3.56
AUS / GlbD (AUS) 7th Feb / 19:40 R4 1800m Pace M 3. Admiral River 9.8 1.51 -9.8
AUS / Arar (AUS) 7th Feb / 20:00 R4 2195m Pace M 8. Irish Philosophy 6.24 1.51 -6.24
AUS / GlbD (AUS) 7th Feb / 20:10 R5 2230m Trot S 10. Long May She Reign 6.24 1.35 2.18
AUS / GlPk (AUS) 7th Feb / 20:50 R4 2100m Pace M 2. Tactical Strike 8.42 1.56 4.72
AUS / GlbD (AUS) 7th Feb / 21:10 R7 1800m Pace M 4. Hilltop Raider 10.96 1.1 1.1
AUS / Arar (AUS) 7th Feb / 21:30 R7 2195m Pace M 6. Galleons Prospect 7.34 1.51 -7.34

-----------------------------------------
$2+ Any Horse Place System (Gallops & Trots)

This bit the dust BIG TIME today (-11.26) so no more testing. I will try and think of something else to test for tomorrow.

Results Day 8 - 8/2/12
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Odds On Fave System (Gallops & Trots)

Full Moon – Look On. :eek:

What a terrible day for this system and, it appears, faves in general today.
Big loss. The Ocho is not happy, Jan.

Maybe it was the full moon, maybe day 13 overall. Maybe that’s the normal strike rate. I don’t know. All I know is that it’s not good. :mad:

Today
15 bets
7 wins
46.6% SR
Profit/Loss –6.21 Units :(
Level Stakes –3.55 Units

Overall
127 bets
77 wins
60.6% SR
Profit/Loss +20.06 Units (Overall since testing on 27/1 - 13 Days +39.83 units)
Level Stakes +5.46 Units (Overall since testing on 27/1 - 13 Days +8.76 units)
(Results have 5% commission deducted)

Same size bet for tomorrow for me at $6.24

Results Day 9 - 9/2/12
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Odds On Fave System (Gallops & Trots)

Today
12 bets
7 wins
58.3% SR
Profit/Loss –3.11 Units
Level Stakes –1.18 Units

Overall
139 bets
84 wins
60.4% SR
Profit/Loss +16.95 Units (Overall since testing on 27/1 - 14 Days +36.72 units)
Level Stakes +4.28 Units (Overall since testing on 27/1 - 14 Days +7.58 units)
(Results have 5% commission deducted)

Same bet size for tomorrow for me at $6.24

Hi Ocho.
That all upping approach seems to be going well

I believe your long term SR will be approx 56.5% all field sizes.


Its amazing how many odds on shots fall over in 5-6 runner events.
So maybe think about deleting them.
This may help with the overall ROI figure.

Thanks Bhagwan.

From today I am restricting the field sizes to 7-13 runners (it was at 4+).

Results Day 10 - 10/2/12
--------------------------------------
Odds On Fave System (Gallops & Trots)

Well that’s a bit more like it. :D

Today
23 bets
17 wins
73.9% SR
Profit/Loss +10.56 Units :)
Level Stakes +5.27 Units

Overall
162 bets
101 wins
62.3% SR
Profit/Loss +27.51 Units (Overall since testing on 27/1 - 14 Days +47.28 units)
Level Stakes +9.55 Units (Overall since testing on 27/1 - 14 Days +12.85 units)
(Results have 5% commission deducted)

Bet size stays the same for tomorrow for me at $6.24
---------------------------------------
Limited Odds On Fave System (Gallops & Trots)

For the second system I’m trying something using odds on faves except that I have restricted the backing to the following:
- Favourites between $1.80 and $2.00
- 7-13 Runners
- No 2yo races
- Parlay bets x 2 (100% of the previous winning bet profit goes onto the next bet and then starts again)

Since 27/1/12 the level stakes profit (before commission) was +17.84 Units (not including today). Parlay x 2 was about +29 Units (before commission).

Today there were 10 bets with 6 winners (60% SR) with a profit of +5.82 Units (after commission) using the Parlay x 2 betting.

Results Day 11 - 11/2/12
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Odds On Fave System (Gallops & Trots)

Not much chop today unfortunately. It would have been good to consolidate yesterday’s nice gain. This thing seems to be going up and down more than a bride’s knickers.

Today
16 bets
8 wins
50% SR
Profit/Loss –4.65 Units :(
Level Stakes –2.44 Units

Overall
178 bets
109 wins
61.2% SR
Profit/Loss +22.86 Units (Overall since testing on 27/1 - 16 Days +42.63 units)
Level Stakes +7.11 Units (Overall since testing on 27/1 - 16 Days +10.41 units)
(Results have 5% commission deducted)

Bet size stays the same for tomorrow for me at $6.24
---------------------------------------
Limited Odds On Fave System (Gallops & Trots)

For the second system I’m trying something using odds on faves except that I have restricted the backing to the following:
- Favourites between $1.80 and $2.00
- 7-13 Runners
- No 2yo races
- Parlay bets x 2 (100% of the previous winning bet profit goes onto the next bet and then starts again)

From 27/01/12 to 09/02/2012 the level stakes profit (before commission) was +17.84 Units. Parlay x 2 was about +29 Units (before commission).

Today
4 bets
2 wins
50% SR
Profit/Loss +0.29 Units

Overall
14 bets
8 wins
57.1% SR
Profit/Loss +6.08 Units
(Results have 5% commission deducted)

Results Day 12 - 12/2/12
--------------------------------------
Odds On Fave System (Gallops & Trots)

Today
9 bets
3 wins
33.33% SR
Profit/Loss –6.09 Units
Level Stakes –4.22 Units

Overall
187 bets
112 wins
59.8% SR
Profit/Loss +16.77 Units (Overall since testing on 27/1 - 17 Days +36.54 units)
Level Stakes +2.89 Units (Overall since testing on 27/1 - 17 Days +6.19 units)
(Results have 5% commission deducted)

Bet size stays the same for tomorrow for me at $6.24
---------------------------------------
Limited Odds On Fave System (Gallops & Trots)

From 27/01/12 to 09/02/2012 the level stakes profit (before commission) was +17.84 Units. Parlay x 2 was about +29 Units (before commission).

Today
2 bets
1 wins
50% SR
Profit/Loss –1.05 Units

Overall from 10/02/12
16 bets
9 wins
56.2% SR
Profit/Loss +5.03 Units
(Results have 5% commission deducted)

Results Day Unlucky 13 - 13/2/12
--------------------------------------
Odds On Fave System (Gallops & Trots)

This has bit the dust BIG TIME for me, unfortunately. I just can’t afford to keep betting it. I’ve lost $97 in the last 6 days. It’s back to the drawing board.

Today
7 bets
1 win - 1 odds on fave won from 7 races today - W T F !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
14.2% SR
Profit/Loss –6.04 Units :mad:
Level Stakes –5.21 Units

Overall
194 bets
113 wins
58.2% SR
Profit/Loss +10.73 Units (Overall since testing on 27/1 - 18 Days +30.04 units)
Level Stakes –2.32 Units (Overall since testing on 27/1 - 18 Days +0.98 units)
(Results have 5% commission deducted)

---------------------------------------
Limited Odds On Fave System (Gallops & Trots)

Bad day for this rubbish as well.

From 27/01/12 to 09/02/2012 the level stakes profit (before commission) was +17.84 Units. Parlay x 2 was about +29 Units (before commission).

Today
7 bets
3 wins
42.86 SR
Profit/Loss –3.25 Units :mad:

Overall from 10/02/12
23 bets
12 wins
52.1% SR
Profit/Loss +1.78 Units
(Results have 5% commission deducted)

Hi the Ocho,

Chin up me old China, the quest continues but don't give up.

If you need a hint or two give me your email addy and I'll shoot you something to cheer you up.

The Schmile

Hi Ocho. Perhaps limiting runners to 9 and distance <1600m will help.

I run a win/plc method and have found these parameters to be profitable. They worked in my favour again today. I also won't bet on heavy tracks. I don't necessarily have the fav but my selections are usually in the top end somewhere.

Your selections may just need some rules to weed out bad races rather than getting it into profit through a staking strategy.

Hi The Schmile

I could do with some cheering up, no doubt about that. :)

equalthree at yahoo dot com dot au

I guess thats whats ya gets when we takes the shorts.

.Hi Ocho
Can BF Manager do bets under the BF minimum O/L

Bhag's

Yes no problem with below minimum bet's.

Thanks for that Angry.