Systems Fear
 

A couple of posts here, including partypoopers, indicate to us all that good systems can run well for years then fall over. All the smarties on here say to develop a good system

• it has to be logical,
• have a few rules,
• and probably include a rule out of the 'square' so to speak,
• & there's no point doing what everyone else is doing for obvious reasons

Now I've got a decent system almost developed which incorporates the top two 'bullet' points, and one other rule that eliminates some contenders, but not others, if that makes any sense ..... race type based rules.

Am I wasting my time ?? The Rev. DD also said recently something along the lines of you're better off using systems for fun and putting you're money in the bank .....

Do systems have a 'life span' ..... Are we operating on a bed of 'shifting sands' (one poster might smile with that reference !!) ..... LSW 7 days with a couple of rule keeps popping up as a goodie, Ahjays systems was good, and many others using many years of data. Have these systems folded too ??

Would seriously love to hear comments.

Is this like the sharemarket in that once you've found the 'holy grail' so has everyone esle, and therefore, you lose again OR, do you find a logical method and continue with it in a discipined manner using a decent staking plan ??

Help ...................... please.

Find a logical method based on good ratings ala r+S /Unitab/Good form last 3 - 4 races in current campaign/Senior Jockey aboard etc
Go with 1st race Favs in the main (theres plenty of these each day) and STOP AT A WINNER.(If your 1st selection loses STOP FOR THE DAY)

Cheers

Another very good system ran 3rd in the "Best System In Australia " Competition run by PPM a few years ago.
A regular supply of winners - many at great prices.
I,ve already posted it in the forum some time ago.

Cheers

In a word..............Yes.

Barny

Anybody can come up with a system that at some point will make profits. The trick is knowing that all systems are disposable and all will eventually fail.

I think the answer is all systems have a lifespan, you need to constantly monitor this and decide when the time is right to make changes.

Mark is a numbers man so systems with always get a negative review by him, but he will also agree even what he does still requires monitoring and not all angles will continue in to the future.

Mark, remember way back with the first risk free system put up by yourself and Allanby?

It was the bookies that put an end to that one.

No matter what path you follow you must also be researching the next path.

Agree purely mechanical systems probably all end up in the bin at some stage - imho one cannot make a go of this game without paying attention to what is right before our very nose - the market. Ignore that at your peril;)

Agree with all the posts.
The reason why a system should be based around good ratings.
Even if you based a system around getting a better price than the lowest asessed price at r+s you,d have to do well in the longterm.

Unfortunately many punters go into this game undercapitalized.

Cheers
darky

The reason why a system should be based around good ratings.

Exactly Darky whether they be speed weight or class ratings.
Then the mechanical approach can start like,
Market position (odds)
Race type.
State.
Cntry metro prov
Track conditions.
Distance etc etc.

The problem starts when you use these factors,
And others to determine the selection criteria first,
Rather than second as profitable filters.

There is a company out there does actually have a couple,
That do make profits albeit it very small when last monitered,
By Punters Choice (Before they shutdown)

I believe this site still advertises them as being profitable.

Would love to list them but you know what will happen then.
T.O.U.

Cheers.

Boy oh boy!

Systems never work?
Systems can never have a long lifetime?

The problem is that most systems have too many rules, so you are relying on the results of exact filtered criteria to reproduce.
Added to this is that often the profit is gained from anomoly outsiders, so the chances of continued success are remote.

Systems do work, but they must be completely logical, there must be a specific reason for the parameters of the filter, not just "that's the band that's profitable".

Handicappers use systems, bookmakers use systems, they are ratings or market systems, they have to arrive at the ratings or prices via a set of rules.
The rules might be quite different to "forum rules", but they are a systematic approach.

Some of my systems have been going for twelve years and are still successful. Most of the systems I post on the forum are new ideas, or system tests, they are not the core systems I rely on day to day.
I'm always looking to value add to the systems in my toolbox.

I would say, I have developed the skill to be able to put most systems in the rubbish category just by looking at the rules and results.
Now and then I stumble onto a gem.

Possibly the most important skill is being able to identify the difference between a downward trend and a changing market.
But with each metamorphasis of the betting market comes new opportunities, that 5 years ago weren't there.

My advice is to find an approach that suits you, that's probably more important than the approach itself.
I've tried Mark's way and couldn't handle the sheer nature of it.
Tried The Ocho's trading and couldn't crack it.
That's not a criticism of them or their approaches, in fact I have great respect for anyone who can do it.
It just doesn't suit my style.

There are others who have one or two very large bets a week, again not me.

Find what you enjoy, what doesn't get you stressed, and do it as often as you can is my advice. These days with the odds advantages, unless you're undisciplined, you really can't do too much damage, unless you plough headlong into a losing system with staking plans ;)

Indeed. Study the market for long enough and you can toss your formguides, rating and databases in the bin.



Having a system (in the context Barny was referring to) and using a systematic approach are two distinct things.



Absolutely. There's profits to be made in both directions. The stock market punters have been doing it for ages.

I wouldn't exactly go that far.
You are quite correct, there are many market based approaches, that generate profit on their own.
Ratings and databases can add a lot of value to those approaches.

For example, not all $2.00 into $1.70 horses are the same.
Backing them all might be profitable at best tote or BFSP.
But really delving into race replays, trials, stewards reports, formguides, ratings and databases can really avoid many losing bets, which in turn generates greater profit.

If one can extract why a movement is happening and make a decision based on facts we have rather than facts we don't have, then at least we can rule out a percentage of furphy's.



I think it depends on your definition of a system.
A system does not necessarily have to select one two or three horses a race.
It doesn't necessarily have to rely on form filters.
In fact in my book any set of filters is a system.

Perhaps we each have our own interpretation of what a system actually is?

I do not for example think a system is based on staking, that's yet another distinct thing as you say.

I suspect this is the case.

Yes any set of filters would be part of a system in my book also. Not sure I agree about staking though. My interpretation of Wikipedia's definition of a system is that a system has STRUCTURE - we'd call them filters. INTERCONNECTIVITY - i.e. if filter 'a' is true then we move on to filter 'b' otherwise we move on to filter 'c', and BEHAVIOUR - i.e. what we do. Staking could arguably be placed here.

On the whole though I think racings systems are poorly or impatiently researched; as suggested above system users tend not to have a "business plan" i.e. what do I do if things turn against me; unrealistic user expectations as to how they'll profit from the system; and many a far too complex.

I remember Mark's system, it was good to use cos frankly it needed no computer once you got some experience.
It was a good starting point, basic.

My "system", has not changed one bit for well over 10 years. I have not seen it posted anywhere on any racing forum yet, so I am not aware if anyone else uses it.
Does it work? Does it profit? and Does it lose?
Yes to all 3, it's HOW one plays their "system".

The point is, look for what is comfortable with you.

The horse market is a little like the stock exchange. New information is always coming to hand and the times change.

In order to make money betting on horses, you must either have information that is not being used by the betting public, or you must have a superior ability to process the information that is public

In reality long-term if you put many hours into the horses you can make 5-10% POT. Its the fun element that keeps us coming back otherwise you might as well buy an investment property.

Successful punters think in terms of chances., not fancies and certainties. They try to assess the true chance of a horse in a race and bet on the basis of their evaluations.

Good luck

That's an extremely good summary of it.


Not entirely agreeing here. You can't buy an investment property with $1,000.
Make that into turnover of $500,000.
If POT was only 5% = $25,000 profit.
$1,000 becomes $26,000, the following year, etc etc etc.
No investment property is going to reap those kind of rewards with such small capital.
This is what brings me to this game......and of course the love of the spectacle that is racing. ;)

Me too.
Pretty sure I've told this before. I started my Betfair a/c with $3000, promptly lost most of it, was down to $500, and haven't looked back since. Have copped a weekly wage for roughly 7 years ever since from $500.

no fear here
 

This is a top question you pose Barny. Here's my thoughts.......

I was thinking that maybe we could group these systems and this is what I came up with. ( You've got to do something when there's ************ all races )

I've been down all three of the following roads and I can only make one work. Not knocking the other two, just that I can't make them work.

The three system roads.....

1) Purely mathematics and divvies....maybe Marks' forte? This method is unlikely to suffer over time because dividends by their very nature take all things into account.

2) The approach that maximizes form analysis and then seeks to find best odds to make a profit. This method is subject to the availability of odds and may suffer from competition as punters become better informed.

3) Grail territory. These are the systems that have such an advantage (usually strike rate, less often a repeatable high price concept) that an impressive profit is gleaned whatever the odds available. These little beauties have so much leeway built in that you can look at years of profit with no tweaking.

Time to cook the evening meal now so I'll toddle off. love to hear from those making this game work as to where they fit into the scheme.

sort of,
I would add strategy with mathematics and divvies.

Pure mathematics is what works for me. No form analysis, just statistics and probability. Take the emotion and decision making out by using an automated bot.

There are so many derivations within those three, but I reckon I'm in the first category.
It is very hard to make this game pay from a punting angle, those that do are yards ahead of the field.
Crunching numbers is my thing, I like the challenge of finding viable methods using strike rate and average odds.
It's actually a much more complicated matrix than it appears.
Added to that, unless you're standing next to the horse, one has to realise that there will always be someone else who knows more about it than you do.
Sometimes, one will see value, snap it up, only to see the price blow like a north wind.
Vice versa.
It's the overall picture that counts.

Crackers
 

What a cracker thread Barny. Here's another little separation that has had me up at nights.

There are those that believe you MUST look for value or you simply cannot make it work and there are those that believe the dividend is the most accurate representation of a horses chances.

At the end of the day those of us lucky enough to have a winning system in their pockets are in essence beating the general opinion of the masses because that is the nature of dividends.

BUT.....here I am using a clever little collection of simple rules that has a strike rate that few would believe and yet it doesn't work if I ignore the popular opinion of the masses. In some people's eyes I would be looking for poor value.

Personally, I feel this simply underlines the fact that this must be the most sophisticated, complicated and wonderful way to make a cracker.

Twobets

It sounds like everyone in this thread are using a very similar system/strategy. Now wouldn't that be funny.

The underlying fear, that is fear of losing the tools we use because let's say a day of a electrical storm blots out the ability to have the computers working, the race venue running on just enough emergency power to keep the pies warm and the beer cold, (it happened one day at Cheltenham) and the bookies were still taking bets, they were "blind" to cos there was no tote screen.

If that was a scenario this Saturday, what are the options, what trump card would a punter have up their sleeve to get out in front and take advantage of the situation?

If one has a "trump card system", what would it be?

I was there at Cheltenham when the power blackout happened.
It was a day at the races that was rare in a sense, a rawness, no electricity, yet the races still went on and the bookies still took bets and the prices seemed to have a aura of good Value that day.
No one had a tote screen to look at.

Does anyone remember the days with no tote screen in the betting ring because the technology was not there at the time?

What "system" did the punter of that era have then?

I recently read a newspaper article about a punter who bets millions each week at several Australian TABs, mainly with the Tasmanian TAB, or at least this is where the information for the article came from (and it was I believe originally his home state). He also punts with overseas totes. This punter has staff working for him. He says that he uses probabilities based on form methods that are well known and freely available. He makes a massive income and is quite wealthy from his punting. I assume he bets according to the Woolworth's principle and has high turnover with small profit margins. Someone else employed an actuary to try to replicate his approach but without success. He makes a point of being discreet about his wealth, rather than being a traditional flamboyant punter.

The point relevant to this thread is that he has a successful system which is based on sound form analysis (ratings), and calculation of the chances of horses (odds). He has obviously worked out a good algorithm to decide where to make his cut off point in the ratings so as to make an edge in his favour.

He says he has made errors, some bad. For example, he bet against Makybe Diva to loose her last Melbourne Cup. His excuse was that he laid his bet before they watered the track!

I have two issues with his punting. Firstly, he has a direct computer connection with the TAB and he bets at the last minute, which makes it very difficult for ordinary punters to assess the market for value. Secondly, because he is a big bettor he gets incentives which amount to a reduced percentage of the take out, which ordinary punters do not.

Anyway, for this thread it seems a successful system in the long haul needs good analysis of each horse's chances plus a willingness to take a small POT, and of course a little help from the TAB.

A very good point gunny, but if you had his money and attracted the rebates he does, and could manipulate the markets as he does, you couldn't help but make a low POT but huge profit.

It is well documented in the press how he manages to profit by his rebates and short priced horses for the place.
It is not about the system, it is about the prices he achieves.
The system identifies what he will have a go at, but without rebates and manipulation, he'd be struggling just as much as the next punter to make a profit.

Put this up against Mr Read who used his own ratings to make a profit because the actual ratings defied the market and it's no contest.

Yes , I agree there Chrome.

With a number of these guys , including the ones in the US , they say if it was not for the rebates they receive, then their punting exercise would not be nearly as profitable.

In some instances, they would only have to break even at average, before rebate results, to show a profit.
Because once the rebate kicks in .
Bingo!
They are now in profit.

Combination of mostly 1) & a little of 2)

But I often wonder if I have taken the more difficult route, as I can honestly say I do not recall the last time I went to the races with just a pen & a bit of cash, paid $5 for a racebook & came home with less in my pocket than I went with.

If I could find a way to get myself to the races most days of the week I reckon I would have this game down cold...loan of a helicopter anyone;)

Puntz makes a good point here. Part of a systems structure are the non-racing elements such as power, availability of data, access to tools, etc. How many systems are based on being able to access data from one source? If Racing and Sports shutdown tomorrow many here are probably out of business. This is a system failure. I drive to my cousins wedding in the country and don't have time to put my bet's on therefore missing a winner that will turn my profit around for the month. This is a system failure. Similarly the power fails at home or the Betfair API has troubles and I miss that important winner. This is a system failure.

You can protect yourself to some degree by having multiple data sources; run your operations from multiple sites; and, maybe even have a partner to place your bets when you are unavailable (bots make good partners ;) ). These things would all be in the business plan.

The most vulnerable element of your system is you, and more specifically what's going on between your ears. I suspect this is where most fail - operator error.

Who goes to the races? That's wierd, crazy talk :eek: :D

Nothing to do with racing but...
 

Here are a couple of books that have made me think more broadly on the subject of system failure

"Why Things Bite Back"

"Inviting Disaster ..."

Enjoy. There's some really good non-racing "racing" books available :)

I know AngryPixie:eek: & probably one of the main reasons 95% (or whatever it is) do their dough each & every week

I mean, I haven't been in a TAB for better part of a 15 years or so (a few pub tabs don't count), but when I did I just used to lose day after day, & as soon as I started going back to the races on a regular basis, the opposite happened, go figure.

Now, about that chopper;)

Yep.Nothing like paying through the nose for every little thing including 2 day old cold pies and flat beer ta get the old brain cells working not ta mention blxxdy old Catholic Priests trampling on ya footsies ta get a bet on.
Ah.The Race track.

No Risk, as long as you don't mind a pink chopper, I hear Geoffrey Edelsten has one going very cheap ;)

And you made remember the late Reg Ansett, who used to fly from his property in Mount Eliza to his helipad in Melbourne.
He used to wave hello to the people below every single day.
Some years after he passed away they subdivided his property into a housing estate. Originally I was lucky enough to visit it, and it was one of the most beautiful estates I'd ever seen.

darkydog, things have improved marginally over the years but we probably would agree that the Racing Industry really needs to be grabbed by the scruff of the neck & dragged into the 21st century. It seems this is beginning to happen, whether its all too late time will tell, but I do worry that the powers that be have missed the boat big time. That said I still love the 'track':)



chrome, I remember that chopper well, probably would have to change my wardrobe to suit;)

Hi Norisk,

I completely agree with you!

For instance, in the Moonee Valley Members area, the decor is hideous to say the least. Off cream walls meet speckled carpet that was seemingly purchased at a closing down sale in the late 80's. A fresh lick of paint and some cutting edge design would make it attractive for a Friday night outing for the 18-35 year old category of next generation punters. Right now, it's more like a bad RSL experience (and this is being a little harsh on your average Razzle Dazzle)

Sex it up a little will you!!! There are plenty of options for a Friday night knees up and I believe racing is a fantastic night out. Agreed, the 'powers that be' need to wake up and look around the place.

The Schmile

Yeah and ensure they have a disco after the last race where the PYT's("pretty young things") can display their "wares"......!
It is a truism....where the PYT's go invariably young "bucks(men) will follow!

Cheers.

.....

Hi fellas,

I'm not talking rock bands, dj's and all that b*****ks.

I merely think a more modern atmosphere to enjoy the racing would be great.

Less RSL, more 'Melbourne chic'....:)

Save the concerts for the Domain.

The Schmile