Laying Strike Rates.
 

I have been successfully laying strike rates, and having my first-ever accident yesterday (in spite of that it was a good day of 31 smiles from 32 selections) I've decided to list the selections here.

Wyong
3/10
6/8
7/14
8/8

Ballarat
6/11
7/7

Rockhampton
1/7
4/14
5/14
6/9

Pinjarra
6/11
7/13
8/12
9/5

Hi Michaelg,

Interesting idea.

Is the cut-off point 8% win strike rate?

Also,

Are you setting a max lay price?

Using example of 8%:

100 / 8 = $12.50

Then maybe multiply this by .8 to ensure the lay is 'unders'

So in this instance, $12.50 x .8 = $10

Maybe I've just complicated things a little...:)

The Schmile

Hi, The Schmile.

I don't really have any strike rate or price limits. I generally lay them all for a fixed liability. I have two tiers of liability which I regard for "safe" and "safer" bets.

A few weeks ago I looked at strike rates for laying, and to my surprise it was very impressive, so the following day I started laying with real money, and as time went on I increased the size of the liability bets.

Yesterday's accident fortunately was with the "not so safe" method but more than recouped it. Some of the bets have been huge but the "safer method" has only ever had one Placing.

Over the three weeks I've won more than $1,000 per week just on these two strike rate methods, however from today I will not tempt fate by continuing (I hope) the large bets.

Nice going Michaelg!

The Schmile

Not a bad day. From the 14 selections there were 14 smiles for a profit of $14.19.

MG have you tried looking at both of the bottom ones in the races you are looking at?

No, but I've done so with other agencies. Such as Unitab, neurals, Don Scott and different markets, but unfortunately have not yet come up with anything successful.

I'd be surprised if the selected races here were any different, but I might keep an eye on them.

Jose, today there were no accidents laying the bottom two - I presume you mean the bottom two TAB numbers and not the two with the worst strike rates? - so there would have been 28 smiles from 28 selections.

However, on Wednesday there would have been 59 smiles from 64 selections which is 5 accidents for every 12 smiles - a losing result because most of the selections are outsiders and the profit made by them would not be large enough to cover the overall loss - bummer!

Yes bummer.
No matter, we soldier on.

Today's selections:

Ipswich
1/11
5/15
6/12
7/11
8/6

Port Lincoln
3/7
4/9
5/9
6/7
7/8
8/12

Taree
4/10
5/12
6/11
7/12
8/12

Moonee Valley
2/13
4/13
5/13
6/11
7/15 (fave)
8/4

A losing day yesterday.

There was one accident from the 22 selections for a loss of $12.73. The accident was the selection I listed as the Fave in M. Valley R7.

Big night for favourite backers last night. Never seen so many get up.

It almost was beaten.

I'm considering omitting those that are single figures in the p.p market even though the few have been smiles.

Today's selections:

Rosehill
2/12
4/8 ($5.50)
6/7 ($9.00)
7/3
8/8

Flemington
3/1 ($9.00)
4/8 ($5.00)
5/16
6/14
7/10
8/8

Eagle Farm
3/10
4/3
5/4
6/13
7/2
8/12
9/0

Morphetville
3/4
4/7 ($5.50)
6/9
7/6
8/13

Gold Coast
1/7
6/11
7/17
11/8

Toowomba
1/4
2/9
6/7

Grafton
5/16
7/10

Gosford
5/11
6/6
7/12
8/10

Ascot
3/11
5/11
8/5

I've had serious computer problems (all fixed now) - the reason for the late posting. There have been 4 selections already run for a profit of $8.54, but because I didn't have time to list them here I will not record them.

I mistakenly omitted Geelong. The selections are:

4/4
5/17
6/13
7/5