Neural inconsistency
 

Don't want to keep harping on about the R&S site and it's occasional loss of plot, but here's a corker just to illustrate the dangers of using the neurals as a reliable base.

Randwick R7 N16 Rose of peace shows as lowest of all runners on CP neurals yet scores highest in the Career ratings score. This is clearly gobbledegook. It went on to win at around $220 on Betfew.

Go yonder and figurest thou.

I'm sure the R & S people could provide a plausible explanation, but like you I'm at a loss. It seems it could not be more inconsistent.

My posts seem to disappear as soon as I put them up.
Could you point me to the rating?
I can't see this horse anywhere on top in any Neural ratings.
Thanks

I wonder if the CP is based on the last 12 mths? As its career best rating was just a couple weeks more then 12mths ago.

Where it ran 3rd over 1400m with 56kg in a 3yo-G2 race.

Got in lite and just needed a bit of pace it seems.

Go the swooper.

$220 is a nice price

i would be much too scared to offer anyone those sort of Odds for any horse - Not even against Black Caviar.

I'm sure I posted before but can't, for some reason see them, refresh doesn't help.

Are you sure you did not make a mistake? There is no rating in the Neurals where this horse is on top.

Yes you did post before.
I can see your previous post without any problems.

Might you have put yourself on "ignore"?

Thanks moeee, this is the utility PC we all use for the internet via the home network and my son used CCleaner and deleted all our settings.
In the process it scrambled up something.
Cheers

If the CP algorithym refers only to a period of 12 months it would be quite misleading especially horses that have raced for several years.

They may have had a very good/bad start sometime in their career, only to excel/stumble.

That may be Michael but I still can't find this horse on top in
any category.
Am I blind or missing something?
If so, all my research is was useless.
Bu.......!!

lomaca, TWOBETS was meaning Rose of peace has the highest Career rating on the rating chart section of R&S, not in the neural section.

It would make more sense probably to be the last 12 months because runners usually peak early in their career and a lot of horses still race when they are 6,7,8,9 years etc so giving them a rating from when they was 3,4,5 is pointless for most runners because they will never run anywhere near the level of their career peak.

But I think R&S should apply that rule from say 6 years on wards only because runners often still improve up to that age and are included in WFA ratings.

Rose of peace is only a 4 year old so its stupid to use the 12 months rule for it and yer is misleading.

I don't know if the CP ratings apply to the last 12 months because I've looked at the 12 Month Ratings (shown on the same page as the Career Ratings that has Rose of Peace on top) and they generally differ quite dramatically from CP ratings and their order of preference???

And did this dramatic difference occur with ROSE OF PEACE?

Yes the rating is correct RoP had a very high rated race on the 5/03/2011 at WF a group 2 of $201900 ran third with a margin of 1.7.
None of the other horses quite match that rating.
Actually if you look at previous runs this win was not all that surprising.

Cheers

Moeee, not really. It was equal-last with CP but second-last with the 12 Month ranking

I also looked at race 8. The top rater with 12 Months was no. 12 and with the CP it was no.15. The worst rated in the same race for the 12 Months was no.8, and with the CP it was no.10.

I've found its always easier to find reason to select these Huge Priced winners after the Race has been run.
But never seem to get the same vibe when I study the race.
And when I try applying the reasoning , that got the roughie home , to other races , I still never come up with the goods.

I guess it just a matter of do you want to find a $200 winner after 100 Losers , or would you rather find a $6 Winner after every 5 Losers.

Coulda Woulda Shoulda
 

I had a good day yesterday but almost lost it when my mate rang and told me Rose of Peace got up at those odds. SHE'S IN MY BLACKBOOK!!!!!


March 17
CITY OF SONG**BENDIGO**R2**No.3**(1000m)
TIGRESS JOY**BENDIGO**R6**No.12**(1400m)
PRINCESS NARINE**BENDIGO**R6**No.3**(1400m)
HAPPY TRAILS**BENDIGO**R7**No.11**(1600m)
FOLDING GEAR **BENDIGO**R7**No.16**(1600m)
ERASET**BENDIGO**R7**No.17**(1600m)
CHASM**BENDIGO**R7**No.9**(1600m)
MILD MANNERED**BENDIGO**R9**No.5**(1100m)
LAST RAIN**CESSNOCK**R6**No.4**(1550m)
LUCKY DUBAI**EAGLE FARM**R6**No.9**(1000m)
BRIGHTEST**RANDWICK**R1**No.12**(1600m)
JADE MARAUDER**RANDWICK**R3**No.2**(1200m)
HERCULIAN PRINCE **RANDWICK**R4**No.3**(2000m)
PERMIT **RANDWICK**R4**No.9**(2000m)
AEROBATICS**RANDWICK**R5**No.7**(1200m)
AMBIDEXTER**RANDWICK**R6**No.11**(1600m)
MOSHEEN**RANDWICK**R6**No.17**(1600m)
GALAH**RANDWICK**R6**No.5**(1600m)
POTIONS**RANDWICK**R7**No.13**(1200m)
ROSE OF PEACE**RANDWICK**R7**No.16**(1200m)
GOPANA**RANDWICK**R8**No.12**(1400m)
REVOLT **RANDWICK**R8**No.2**(1400m)

Holy 200/1 winner Batman, I need a stiff drink!!

The Schmile