Question to the best and brightest on here....
 

As a 1st poster on here, I wish to doffs my cap to the quality of posting here and also the dedication demonstrated in the search for the 'holy grail'... the perfect betting system, or even just a method that brings consistent returns over the longer term?

So out of respect to the best, the brightest and also the most generous - & honest members on here when it comes to what works, what doesn't (and sometimes what might?) - I wanted to start with a question or 2, rather than a contribution!

What in your opinion is a reasonable definition of the perfect betting system?

How will we know when we find one ie what to look for, how to measure?

Thanks in advance - any feedback here is greatly appreciated!

Lord G

I am far from the best/brightest here but here is my opinion.

I am looking for something which is conisistent. It doesn't have to win each day but it should win most weeks and most months. I am also looking for something that is logical. If I have a rule I want to have a reason behind it. For example wide barriers are underbet by the public so they usually are a good starting point for value.

As far as testing it I have seen many models but I think the only one worth using is a real live test period of several months with small stakes. If it has been consistent in the past then it should be consistent and win over a test period of 3 months.

If you can find the thread where I "revealed all" you're on your way.
Yesterday was my first losing day since posting it some weeks ago.

Hi Lord Greystoke and welcome to the forum!

The perfect betting system, hmmm....

1/ Relatively high strike rate (25 - 40%) to reduce length of losing runs
2/ Isolates value (or has a value/minimum price component locked in)
3/ Uses a sensible staking strategy relative to strike rate/return.
4/ Has a simple set of rules or is easy to automate selections.

I'd recommend having a play around with UB's system tester, it's opened my eyes to a few situations that deliver value and lay opportunities for the commodities that are overbet.

An interesting article posted by Mark a few weeks back stated that the average system lasted 2.8 days before being discarded. Make a promise to go for 3-6 months before making any type of decision on long-term viability.

This forum really is a Goldmine so dig deep, demand value and you're off and racing!!

Best of luck!

The Schmile

Well.Being one of the brightest sparks around and the "Battlers Friend"a majority of good priced winners are a must as is being OVERCAPITALIZED.
That way your not betting peanuts on Odds On Favs for the Place.
There are many useful things on the forum.Seek and you will find.

Hope that helps Tarzan and how is Cheetah these days.
Cheers
darky

I assume you are talking about this post :


I had a read and your followup posts but got lost.

Laying for $100 ? What do you mean by lay the fav to $110 ?
Is that your liability ?

For example if fav was $3.00 then you would lay it to profit $55 and lose $110 (disregard other horses for the moment). Or does it mean you would lay it to profit $110 and lose $220.

Or have I completely not followed this at all ?

Funny i missed that post, but anyways what he means is payout so if the fav was $3.00 you would lay $36.66 or closes and lay $37 so the lower the odds the more of your money you are risking.

How long is a piece of string? Everybody is going to give a different answer to these questions.

One feature of the "perfect" betting system is that it's returns must be relative to the amount of time spent producing them i.e. if I spend all of Friday doing form study for Saturday's meetings and then spend all Saturday working those selections, I'd expect my Saturday returns to be higher than if I simply employed a bot to pick all the selections and do the work for me.

The perfect system is one that doesn't lose money. Compounding does everything else. ;)

Perfect betting system?

Surely that is one that never looses and wins you a fortune from starting with a 1 dollar coin. That would be the perfect system in my books, but also totally unrealistic.

A method that picks winners not so favoured by the majority i.e. one that picks value selections that are over the odds.

A real market example wo work off for the explanation:

This is a 98% market.

2. HOT BUZZARD = 1.95 / 1.92

3. DANA TRAVIS = 5.8 / 5.5

4. REGAL GATE = 80.0 / 55.0

6. RYBENBROOK FLICK = 20.0 / 14.0

7. CAPTAIN KRUNCH = 15.0 / 13.5

8. PERFECT POWER = 6.0 / 5.5

Its a dog market I know but i collect hose as well and any market should be easy to do the explanation. So I would lay each as follows ?

2 = $56.41
3 = $18.10
4 = $1.25
6 = $5.00
7=$6.66
8=$17.00

So the total coming in to me is $104.42

If Fav wins I lose $110 - 104.42 = $5.58
If 2nd Fav wins I lose $105 =58c
If 3rd Fav wins I win = $2.42
If any other runner wins I win $4.42

Is this correct keeping in mind I have not taken into account commission.

Over 100 races lets assume favs win 30 times, 2nd favs 25 times and 3rd favs 15 times and all others 30 times.

30 Times I lose $5.58 = $167.40
25 Times I lose 58c = $14.50
15 Times I win $2.42 = $36.30
30 Times I win $4.42 = $132.60

This makes a loss of $13.

What am I missing with Marks method ?

A quick check reveals nothing wrong with your numbers UB.

I checked my figures from Last Saturday to tonight, I have bet on 80 races and averaged just over 102% per race, so in your example add a runner at say 30, that's an extra $3.33 in per race, times 100 = an extra $333 in, added to your loss of 13 = +320. Not to be sneezed at as the downside is limited. Alright we haven't taken off commission but given your example and the % I have achieved we are now well in profit. And these figures are for a base book of $100. I regularly make books for $1000 or more and when Black Caviar was running around I was holding in excess of $15000....and had no losers.

"Over 100 races lets assume favs win 30 times, 2nd favs 25 times and 3rd favs 15 times and all others 30 times."

Nothing wrong with these numbers either, my actual for the last 80 races (converted to 100) are 30 favs, 40 2nd & 3rd favs, and 30 others, which is pretty average.

I'll post my book of the G1 tonight after it has run. (ps, can't lose)

Don't know how well this will copy.



Horse Racing > MVal (AUS) 23rd Mar : R6 1200m Grp1 Showing 1 - 8 of 8 Selections

Selection Odds Stake($) Bid type Placed Profit/loss($)
1. Hay List * 1.57 2550.00 Lay 2550.00
2. Buffering * 9.69 412.70 Lay 412.70
3. Woorim * 14.80 270.20 Lay 270.20
4. Rekindled Interest * 32.00 125.00 Lay 125.00
5. Beaded * 25.00 160.00 Lay 160.00
6. Lone Rock * 32.00 125.00 Lay 125.00
7. Mid Summer Music * 27.00 148.10 Lay 148.10
8. Foxwedge * 15.75 254.00 Lay -3746.50
*Average odds: On Off Back subtotal: 0.00
Lay subtotal: 44.50
Market subtotal: 44.50
Commission @ 4.4%: 1.95
Net Market Total: 42.55

Thanks Mark,

I'll go through this and have a look.

Ok so I can see your getting over a 100% book.

Could you explain your process to me though. Do you first start laying the favourite or do you start with the longer shots ?

Do you have a minimum size of money in the pools. ie Group 1s are going to have more then a maiden.

Thanks.

Hello Mark
I have trouble working out your figures. How much would you have lost if HayList had won?

Said it before and I'll say it again, there is no process. Every race is different. Some start by laying the fav, others the outsiders, others the lot, others one or 2 and build from there. No minimum, if I think I can get on over 100% then I start work, obviously I can hold more on the better races.

Clive.....Lost??? There were no losers. Hay List was a winner for around $40. I thought he would win so bunched them all up.

But I thought you laid to lose on SPO 1 & 2, maybe win a small amount on SPO 3. and clean up if anything else wins ?

Not shouting just making a point.....EVERY RACE IS DIFFERENT.

The odd occassion when I stuff up, I may have all losers.
The odd occassion when I get really good % I clean up on all runners.
All other races are somewhere in between.
My advice would be to read the thread again.
Hay List as fav was my worst way.

Mark,

Thanks for the posts. Really interesting and I'll paper trade this myself to see how I go. Your responses have been very helpful and I understand eah race can be different so not surprised by that.

It all makes sense. I think I understand your angle and I can see how this works quite easily if you have some idea on what your doing. For example if the market is near 100% you only need to get 1 or 2 horses on the higher side and your over a 100% book by a very small percentage. If you can get 3-4 horses on the higher side you are probably showing a few % points profit.

The real trick I beleive is getting on quickly and knowing which horses may firm/drift and thus which would hurt or help your book.

I really appreciate your answers to what I have posted, especially posting an example. Your a top notch guy to be sharing it.

Just one more question and you have probably answered this elsewhere but do you use any software to make this easier ? ie there is software that you can click dutch once you have some horses layed already and it will do the others for you.

Thanks again.

Aw shucks UB.
As I put on the original thread, I have no worries about the markets disappearing as the amount of people that will do this is negligible, if any
The only "bot" I use is Gruss, thanks to Shaun. It just makes things that bit quicker as I do everything by hand.
As far as paper trading goes..........don't waste your time, just do it. Trial & error will soon tell you if you're able to make it work.
ps another win today despite a rash of favs in the middle of the day, and the shocking SP of SR6.

Hey Mark, did you have any luck with other bookies regarding the other idea we talked about, or did they restrict you as well.

Shaun, I'll email you.

Rather than start another thread i will use this one.

I was wondering why there hasn't been more mention of Marks idea,
Of waiting to see what unfolds with earlier races regarding fav's.

Then if say four of the 1st five races have been won by fav's,
At a certain meeting surely the percentages statistically speaking,
Must be in your favor when laying the fav over the next 3-4 races.

Just an observation for the lay backers that's all.

Cheers

Hi Darky, appreciated your wisdom earlier...
 

HI Darky,

thanks for your wisdom earlier, especially on the need to make sure the bank vault is stacked nicely before we take a spin = being 'overcapitalised'

LG


PS tarzan is alive and well after a bit of a break from the jungle and Cheetah is still cheeky!

[QUOTE=garyf]

Then if say four of the 1st five races have been won by fav's,
At a certain meeting surely the percentages statistically speaking,
Must be in your favor when laying the fav over the next 3-4 races.

Will put this qoute to the test.
At Pakenham today four out of the first 5 races,
Have been won by the fav.

Races 2-3-4-5 so there is no conjecture i used the,
Starting prices of the on course bookmakers,
My source Betchoice for the prices.

So if a lay punter would you lay the Fav in the,
Next at pakenham R=6 if it wins then do a progression,
To get your money back then quit if race =7 fav loses.

Or is it one of those days when all the Fav's get up?.

Cheers.

hi Gary, I read somewhere...
 

Hi Gary,

I read somewhere that long term probability (including the version pertaining to SR on favorites?) has no 'long term memory' as such! Which means the first 5 races would be irrelevant regards which favorites do or dont get up in the remaining races.

Having said that, I have Jetta as the top rated nag in the next and currently showing value, even on the TAB = approx 75% overs!

LG

Hi L.G.

You are correct the last race or previous races,
Have no bearing on the next result.

I myself only back not lay so the post was only,
To emphasize marks post in obtaining a ""statistical advantage",
When laying horses.

See Jetta got beat but that means nothing as to its real chance,
In the race really.

That's why i back for a living previous results don't influence me,
One way or the other "BUT" there is some merit i guess for the,
Statistically minded layers in my previous post.

Cheers.

HI Gary I get your drift now but can you explain...
 

HI Gary,
I get your drift now, but can you explain the first line in your comment below (bit sleepy here on a sunday!)

That's why i back for a living previous results don't influence me,
One way or the other "BUT" there is some merit i guess for the,
Statistically minded layers in my previous post.


LG

If i had to back Jetta at pakenham for my ratings,
The fact that four of the last five s/price fav's,
Had won would not stop me backing it.

Which is exactly what my previous post stated.

Cheers.

Thanks for clarifying, mate - all makes sense too.

LG

Thanks to The Schmile (and UB!)...
 

Thanks for your warm words and the excellent recommendations in your post above mate. UB's system tester is a gold mine all of its own eh?

I have found some good value in it when putting together different hunches - ideas, particular where short priced fav's DO tend to get up so we can avoid those races.


Cheers LG (and thanks to you UB for the valuable tool!)