Sorting the Wheat from the Chaff
 

Sorting the wheat from the chaff involves doing your own research.

For instance, there are some claims on here at the moment,as have been for months about the effectiveness of a system out forward as 2011System of the Year. The claims have beenrefuted by a couple of posters who have provided factual evidence. These posters who have refuted the effectivenessI respect very much. BUT, to those newon here, I would recommend that you always DYOR in every case. How can we not get consensus on what should be a matter of reporting facts?

Why should we do our own research when the data is in front of our eyes and genuinely offered?

Coz the input data might be flawed ….. (chrome prince’s data I would back with my life, but saying that, still DYOR, and he would surely say the same)

Coz the program analysing the data might be flawed …..

I’d also be wary of systems offered up, not necessarily on here, that don’t have back-up data. It’s my perception that some might offer a system up, then check to see how many mug punters have followed it, then lay the systems they are offering as a winner, or punt the system they are offering as a lay system. Then run a similar process, with similar rules all over again. I’m sure this is a little money spinner for some. It’s the mug punters fault for sure, no-one else’s, but DYOR.

There’s many a system offered on here, especially way, way back in time that seem to do very well indeed, and have data that can be checked. There the ones I’d look in to,there the one’s that may have stood the test of time.

Hi Barny, could you give some examples please? Do you have back up results to prove it?

Bernie

Strange question Bernie given that the point of my post was to DYOR.

Ah Barny, just the answer I expected. Not even a mention of a system that does very well indeed. You do have results to prove that one does exist though?

I figure its easier to get blood from a stone than it is to get a straight answer to a simple question from some members.

But thats fine - everybody is different and everyone reacts in different ways.

I seem to remember Punters Choice, saying the System "Dark Horse" had made a profit for many years, and continued to do so, I know it was based on horses that had finished in the first 4 (I think) in their last 4 races this time in, but can't remember the sub rules now, anyone know it?

Placed at last 4 starts, not broken by a spell.
Not to have won last 4 (3?) in a row.
Must be $4.50 or more PP.

That is from memory.
Could be more rules, but that is the gist of the original.

There was an updated one which disregarded the spell and a few other rule changes I seem to remember as well.

If this is the dark horse that was 30 odd years ago then one of the rules was that the last start or second last start must have been in the city.

And Bernie, Ahjays system was spruiked by many as being profitable, then there's the system crash made up, the No Brainer, there's been many from bhagwan early days ..... maybe if you transferred your money into my account I could save you the trouble of even having to have a bet bernie. You've only got to look bernie. There's also a recurring system on here, which sounded very good, the poster was privateer?? (I think), but you have to dig and dig to get all the rules.

DYOR bernie, the harder you work the luckier you'll get ..... Gary Player said that !!

Courtesy of this forum Bernie, there would be 200+ decent systems that do have some logic as their base. A lot of them rely on last 4 runs, but there are many including others, including the 'longshot' system that provide some sound information for you to build a system that suits your style.

Many systems posted here show excellent POT results going back for 4 years from the time they were posted. Over the past few years the posts have concentrated more on "running your own book" and ratings based, rather than early days where information was shared in pursuing winnning systems without ratings. This doesn't suit me, but it might suit you bernie.

The dark horse(original) equestrian publishing.

1= Must have finished 1-2-3 at each of its last 4 starts (Current campaign)
1111
1112
1113
1211
1212
1213
1311
1312
1322
1323
1333
2111
2112
2122 etc etc

2= Eliminate all prov and cntry meetings plus sandown and caulfield.

3= Eliminate all those whose last start was not in the city,
Accept the following tracks as qualifiers(Southport-Bundamba -Canberra)

4= Delete any horse drawn wider than barrier 12 after scr unless it is,
The pre-post favourite (AFTER SCR)

5=Remove all horses longer than tenth position in the morning newspaper,
(aFTER SCR)

5= This rule took a while to find as it went two pages before it appeared
Will qoute.

Any horse still qualified which is to be ridden by one of the,
Top=3 riders in that state is a selection for the " SPECIAL BET "

6= Eliminate all pre-post favourites which are not special bets.

The rest of the book contains results and staking plans.

Hope this clears it up.




CHEERS.
Garyf.

Ah yes, Ahjay's system. Well it never proved to be a winner for me and I guess many others seeing as no one keeps raving on about it. It was a favourite of Darkydog's many moons ago. As for Bhagwan's systems, there are so many that one wouldn't know where to start.

Anyway, answer me Barny, do you have the results to prove that these systems are profitable, or are you just presuming they are because the system rules suit your personality?

IF you're talking about the 200+ systems I mentioned on here, OR those that show an excellent POT, then NO I don't have results to prove that ALL of them are profitable.

Regarding your second question ..... My thread was based on DYOR, that's the second time I've had to mention this to you. Do Your Own Research - in anyone's language (no semantics) is the opposite of presumption !!!! ...... bernie !!!

Maybe it's you I'm helping save from yourself bernie ..... you're welcome, lol.

and bernie ..... punters are wired for the 5 / 1 pop. Whack on a ton and get $600 back. The notion of 20% POT with a run of outs somewhere will GUARANTEE that 99% will run for the hills when a few losers pop up in a row.

Treat this as a business and you're a chance.

and one more thing bernie ..... I think you know quite a bit about this caper, you little squirrel !!!!! lol

You're quite right about doing your own research Barny. For some unknown reason, people don't give you EVERYTHING on a platter :rolleyes:

P.S. Welcome back Barny. Great to hear from you again. :)

Hi Barny.
Just realized you were back from a spell.

Hope the health is ok.

Cheers.
Garyf.

Your dead right there Barny about the Do Your Own Reserch.

How many times have we experienced say a system that does well for 3 months, then breaks even for the next 3 months.

If one does not check these things , we will not know if its what we were expecting.
It may have too many bets for our liking.
It may have too fewer bets to our liking.
Long runs of outs may not be to our liking.

To those Punters who blindly bet any system that is written without back checking ..
STOP doing that.
Do some back checking.
Do some dry runs for at least 150 bets & go from there.
Just because it worked say 10 years ago , does not mean it would still work today.

Work out the longest run of outs you expect, then add 100 to it , so as to work out size of betting bank to be used.
If betting level stakes.

Punting is not an exact science so try & be prepared for the worst at all times.

Well said Bgahwan.

The other thing I,d add is to look outside the square.

If you do what everyone else does you,ll get what everyone else gets - a cold soggy pie and the bus fare home.

Cheers
darky

This is exactly the area I have a problem with your posts, regarding systems darkydog2002. None of them look outside the sqaure, they're all related to ratings, short prices etc, you were incessantly banging on about 55kg+ from Malcolm Knowles research. Of all the posters on here, you are the one who keeps regurgitating the same old, same old, ......

Please direct me to one piece of information you've posted that could be considered outside the square.

Not looking for an argument or to be TOU'd but your suggestion of looking outside the square flies in the face of 99% of your posts darkydog2002.

Quite true Barny.
Most of my posts are to do with ratings and using commonsense with them.
And they are still my bread and butter .BUT as every top class professional (if their honest ) will tell you that the bulk of their profits yearly come from the occasional Longshot .
The silliest thing in this game is restricting yourself to a odds range.
i.e $3 - $10.

And this is touted over and over again.Its simply untrue and restricting the amount of profit one earns in a year.

If a horse is considered a good thing and the totes /bookies are offering a massive price I accept it greedily.

Cheers
darky

I,ll tell you a true story re the above post.
A few years ago a mate and I shared a subscription to the Propun Ratings When it was a paid service.
One of the tips was offered at 30/1 by the bookies.
My mate words were"That cant win Propun must think I,m silly"
It duly won of course.
Now this mate would be forever writing abusive letters telling how paying for the subscription was the worst thing he ever did etc etc .
He made nothing while with the same selections I was a mile ahead.
Cheers
darky

Thanks for that darkydog2002

very true darky, very true - just my observations but I often see most value in the $8-$16 range, esp for the place

Yes that Place market in the $2.00+ range can be very good.

I agree to dis-agree. Many systems , rules , thoughts or ideas
posted here are just personal opinion. Thus a forum. I take all
on board and no-one can be guilty of error , how crazy the idea!
Any one claim to live off the punt , and relay the message publicly
on this or any other forum is a madman! I live to read new messages and
any in sight i gain is a bonus. Some systems ARE fanciful to say
the least , but some i can relate to , and if not using the entire system ,
adapt the reasoning behind the concept of why a certain rule
was put in the system ,(why was it was put there?) Sometimes these repeat , others dont.
Some systems good , others not. So i conclude (opinion only)
Do your own research (agree) but dont shut out ideas that you
yourself may have overlooked. These people on here could be the
answer your lookin for.

Good luck to everyone!

Well put Axle.
Cheers
darky

Well said Axledog.

The crazy ideas are often the more interesting to read about.

They tend to run hot & cold performance wise , but I still like to read about them, no matter how wild they are.


===========================================

Here's one mad idea that tends to work on its good days.

RULES
Target a Tipsters Top selection to win.

Must be an Odd TAB number
e.g. 1 3 5 7 9 ect


If Tipsters Top selection is an Even TAB No. e.g. 2 4 6 8 ect - No bet race

Price 2.60+

Why it works , I dont know.

Like any idea put forward, in the form of a System or Method.
Do your own research first, before committing any real money.
One can often improve on an idea put forward ,while doing this checking process.
One can often add someone's idea to your existing approach, so as to maybe improve on it.
So try & keep an open mind, no matter how wild it may sound.