Question to Bhagwan...
 

Hi Bhagwan,

Firstly can I say thanks to you sir for your invaluable contributions here over the years and also your endeavours to remain level headed amongst the 'noise', from time to time.

It is also my intention to add some learnings here of my own in good time, but I am not expecting to catch up to you any time soon!

My question regards SR as follows...

Assuming that 1st and 2nd favorites come in approx 50% of the time in any one race over the longer term, how to calculate the effective SR if I target the first 2 favorites and find a system that consistently eliminates the 'false' favorite of the 2 (Say 67-75% of the time)?

Would I be left with a SR that lies somewhere between 40-50%?

LG

Ya little Ripper your Lordship.
A thinking Punter.
Welcome to the Club.
Cheers
darky

Ya little Ripper your Lordship.
A thinking Punter.
Welcome to the Club.
Cheers
darky

Doffs my cap to you, Sir Les

Just trying to find my way thru the darkness in 'ere!

LG

And mine to you my dear chap.

Me thinks you are much more advanced than,
You are letting on about yourself L.G.

Good luck here anyway.

Cheers.

And mine to you my dear chap.

I seem to have a echo on my previous post.
A omen perhaps.

Why not post the findings of 'false' favourites that have been discussed in the past.

I'll kick it off .....

Favourite that was beaten favourite last start = 14% S/R (from memory)
I personally wouldn't touch a fav dropping back in distance either.

Appreciate your response Gary...
 

Appreciate your response Gary, but if punting is a puzzle.. I only have very few of the pieces in front of me at any 1 time!

Also helps to be respectful in a room / forum where there are many more knowledgeable members present who are way ahead of me?

Having said that, if sharing is the key and we all have something to contribute in here, then we may have untold riches to find together given some time, patience and respect

No sermon intended - just my humble opinion.


LG

Well said.

No worries L.G.


Your humble opinion is noted ( L.O.L.)

Cheers.

Hi Greystoke .
Thanks for the kind words.

If one were successful, say 67% of the time, separating the 1st & 2nd fav with 50% SR combined, the SR would be 33.50%+

The question of False fav ,is generally, a fav that did not win.
There will be seen many instances where a horse deserves to be Fav.
On form , it cant lose.
But we see many of these, cant lose Favs , fall in a hole for no explained reason.

HI Bhagwan,
thanks for your input on this.

It is an interesting challenge to target - I am of the opinion that if you identify & eliminate the favorites most likely to fall over from the equation, you substantially increase or load your own SR. This assumes that one has a consistent system of shortlisting the best chances, of course?

Can you provide your workings for how you get to 33.5%+?

I would have thought that if I successfully eliminate one of the top favorites at least 2/3rds of the time, then the probability of the remaining favorite winning is closer to 50%.

I am unable to substantiate the hypothesis however as my probability maths is a little rusty!

cheers LG

Hay List, 'fixed' abscess on the foot, huge run in the Newmarket apparently took it's toll ..... All so easy AFTER the event, but it did have a big question mark over it prior to Last Friday's race.

And Helmet ..... someone here suggested it wouldn't win a race after it's hard run in a Group 1 event recently ..... So far, so good.

Two nags who've buttered up after having hard runs in top races and been beaten. So do we just look for those who've had the guts run out of them (a la Djokevich and Nadal) and 'scratch them from our selections?

One system I've seen is to lay those that won and ran career best time last start... it may have some merit, but I've no evidence either way, as I don't keep race times...maybe someone can help with this one?

Hi Greystoke.

If one could sustain a 100% SR of separating the 2 Favs , then yes , it would be 50% SR.

But we do know that is very unlikely long term.

We are assuming based on past history over 10 yrs that the top 2 Favs win 50% of all races.

Now separate them so you have one selection per race.

===========================================

There is one strong method I can recommend having a go with .

RULES
Target the 2 Favs in each race.

Bet 4 units on the one you feel should win.
Bet 1 unit on the other, as a sort of saver bet.

This works very well & you will enjoy a 50% SR.
Hopefully the long runs of outs will be contained doing it this way & keep ones punting more interesting.

Delete any race with a fav <=2.00

In the same area - I just read somewhere "odds on favs win approx 55% of all races, whereas favourites priced at $2.70 or more(7/4) have a very poor historical win strike rate of only approx 18%.
Anyone got any stats to support or discredit this statement ?
cheers........ Mancunian

I do times, and you are correct, mighty hard for a horse to back up next start after running a one-out fast time. Often this time is pace related anyway.

Peak Performamce Syndrome - a theory i have believed in since the mid 90"s.

This may help.


All FAV'S
Races=55,162
Wins =17,172
S/rate=31%
Av tab=$2.80
Av s/p=$2.80
LOT=12.3%

Up to $3.0
Bets=31,014
Wins=11,842
S/rate=38.2
Div =$2.37.
LOT=9.6%

Over $3.0.
Bets=24,152
Wins=5,330
S/rate=22.0
Div= $3.80
LOT=17%

Over $4.0
Bets=7,168
Wins=1,282
S/rate=18.0
Div=$4.57
LOT=18.0

Over $5.0
Bets=2,677
Wins=432.
S/rate=16.0
Div=$5.05
LOT=18%

These haven't been updated for a while now,
But gives you reasonable idea of what the,
S/rate of Fav's are pertaining to price groups.

Cheers.

Faves $2.70 or more
 

Yes, strike rate is 25%

Runners: 103,781
Winners: 26,091
Win%: 25.14%

Might as well give you the others.

S/PRICE RANK
2=56192
WINS=11197
S/RATE=19.9%
AV DIV=$4.58
LOT=8.6%

3=56191
WINS=7910
S/RATE=14%
AV DIV=$6.23
LOT=12.3%

4=56153
WINS=5845
S/RATE=10%
AV DIV=$8.26
LOT=14%

5=55920
WINS=4249
S/RATE=7.5%
AV/DIV=$10.78
LOT=18%

6=54942
WINS=3277
S/RATE=5.9%
AV DIV=$14.24
LOT=15%

7=52467
WINS=2255
S/RATE=4%
AV DIV=$18.29
LOT=21.6%

I am sure someone posted stats like this before i was a member,
Couldn't find them unfortunately.

Cheers.

Brilliant feedback Bhagwan, thanks.

Will take a closer look at your '4 + 1 Plan' (apologies for naming it for reference, unless you have already done so?)

Love to know how you can can reduce complexity in punting maths regards stake to single digits so easily! eg 3,2,1 Dutch staking plan being another of your gems(if my memory serves me correct)?

I wonder, would it also make sense to check the value for the 1st 2 favorites (overs, unders etc) and then stake 4 unit on the better value pick and 1 unit on the lesser value (regardless of which I feel has the better chance of winning).

This suggests I would be leveraging up on undervalued favorites and minimising losses on lesser value / overvalued favorites.

Might be worth me checking out returns on both versions of the 4+1 Plan using 1 race per day and DS WS ratings for guidance regards value, for simplicity.


LG

Trials, variations & tribulations!
 

PS and another variation on the F1,F2 theme being perhaps...

3 units on top Fav pick (best chance or best value)
2 units on the other Fav as saver
1 unit on an overlooked or undervalued long shot

No idea whether this would be more or less profitable than your 3,2,1 dutch play but worth a look maybe

What do you think?

LG

I see what you mean Mr Raven...

After a monumental peak in early 2000, the whole of the decade reeked of peak performance syndrome for me!

LG

Thanks for info Raven

garyf
many thanks for super stats - There are favourites and then there are other favourites aren't there !
Thanks again....Mancunian

Clover all overs...
 

Hello Raven again...

I concur with the 55% mark as an estimate for odds on Favs, based on UB's tester using current update of 73,241 lines.. It returned a SR of 57%

It also gave a SR = 35% for all favs in the sample(vrs 30% often quoted) which is handyu to know but hardly about long run probability eh?

Regards the somewhat daunting prospect of an odds on fav getting up more often than 1 in 2 races (and often giving us v poor value), it fazes me not as I am more interested in the 45% of odds on favorites which fall over = even worse value!

If we can identify these on a regular basis and dutch those just behind them in the betting - instead of nasty odds-on unders(pants) we get to Clover all overs?

Obviously been in the office too long 'ere... think its time to get back to the castle and get thee some dinner with Lady G!

LG

Hi Gary, are you able to strip out the races where there is an odds on fav and then rerun for 2-4 Favs?

Cheers LG

Unfortunately no.

This data is now about 12 months old.
And i have since upgraded and not added to it.

Chrome Prince may be able to help?.

Cheers.

ok mate.

Original stats very helpful in any case, so thanks for these.

LG