Perfectly placed
 

Hi all,

Here's a new selection method I'm trying based on backing the 'good things' of the day principle.

A few rules:
- Back for the place
- No maidens
- Shortest prepost fav of the meeting
- 8+ starters
- Good tracks only
- Must pass the fiercely guarded 'secret class filters'...... ;)
- Min div $1.30 (unitab fixed)
- Bet with betfair country/provincial and best of three totes metro

One selection today:
Grafton
7 - 7 Falklands

The Schmile

Good luck The Schmile
 

This one's right up my alley! Good luck.

Cheers Twobets,

We'll have a looksie as the results come in, today's selection will be uber short I'm anticipating.

I'm testing a new ratings idea as the main 'class filter factor' so we'll see what arises. Could turn into a supreme lay method. Ahhh the beauty of this mad game we play!!... :D

The Schmile

Secret Class Filters /Min Divvie $1.30
I reckon me mate "bubblebrain " will be right onto this one.
Thanks for sharing.
Cheers
darky

Secret filter or not can't see how you could lose with this one for the place?

I go with # 8 and #13 ea way.
Good luck

While this is not a betting race for me,
Ran the ratings through just for the sake of it.

R7=7 (CLEARLY TOP)
8(DANGER)
6(PLACE)
13(PLACE)

Looks like we are all in agreeance here.
Good luck to those aboard. the 7

Cheers.

Hi T.S.

Just to let you know this is a race for,
Maidens and cl-1 horses combined.

Not sure if this would alter the no maiden races ruling.

Cheers.

Rather than start another thread can i impede on your.s T.S.
Honestly i wish the on course bookmaker(s) at Townsville today,
Would stop allowing there 10yo kids to frame the opening markets.

Fair dinkum have a look at the openers in Race=5 will you.?

Cheers.

A good track rating, exposed form cl=3 how,
Do you get these %'s.

Cheers.

Hi Garyf and Iomaca, thanks for your input, much appreciated and keep it coming! I realise you are dedicated ratings afficiados, so thoroughly enjoy your postings!

Regarding the maiden/class 1 grade Garyf, I did realise this, Falklands qualified as a selection as it had won a race previously.

So down to business, Falklands got the chocolates but didn't pass the min $1.30 filter.

I'll record both Core Selections (CS) and No Bets (NB)

NB: out 1 in 1.152 P/L +.152

I'm fishing off Rottnest Island tomorrow so will post if the fish areN't biting. Caught a lovely Baldchin Groper today and am very excited about dinner tonight!!

TheSchmile

Apologies I didn't get to post today.

There would have been one selection at Goulbourn, race 1 Asclepius, however again the place divi was piddly and it won, albeit at $1.50 Unitab.

I won't record this selection as it is retrospective
and will endeavour to post each day if possible now I'm off the boat.

Have a great evening all!!

The Schmile

No selections qualify today, for interests sake, here are the ones that didn't make the cut.

Kalgoorlie
4-2
Hawkesbury
8-1
Ballarat
6-1

I've been thinking in light of recent results, if the selection is less than $1.30 the place, two mins before the off, then back for the win.

Have a great day!!

The Schmile

2 from 3 placed today of the non selections, producing a 'juicy' profit of .35 units :)

The non selections were pretty much comprehensively beaten by 4.2, 4.3 and 2.4 lengthS respectively, which is giving me confidence in the ratings filter. Might turn into a lovely win laying method for the non selections. Time will tell......

Have a fine evening one and all, I'm still in glorious WA. The weather is simply divine at the minute.

The Schmile

Just two 'good' tracks at Canterbury and Ipswich today and no selections pass the stringent ratings rules. This method may be over selective, however if the winners keep flowing I won't be complaining.

The one's that didn't make it (think there might be a few winners from these today as a couple only just missed out but I won't be on them):

Ipswich
6-2

Canberra
4-1

Cranbourne
7-5

Canterbury
4-4

Have a beautiful Friday!

The Schmile

Just one selection won yesterday, Canberra 4-1, Myname'sjames at $1.46. Canterbury became a complete non selection with less than 8 runners. There would have been a profit of 1.44 units laying the three selections for the win at level stakes.

Only one selection today, the exciting Atlantic Jewel. Looks like it will be a straight win bet as she's 1.34 fixed for the win at the minute.

CS
Randwick
6 - 2

(Dead track at Flemington today so 7-1 doesn't qualify)

Non Selections
Doomben
5 - 4

Morphettville
3 - 3

Ascot
5 - 12

*Just to confirm this idea is a test only and no money is being staked on selections at the moment.

Best of luck to all having a play today!!

The Schmile

Hi T.S.

As i live across the road from flemington i usually walk my pet labrador,
Each time there is a race meeting early in the morning at the track.

I reckon the track will be upgraded by race=7 so your selection may,
Become a bet it is about 24 degrees and a wind is blowing.

Just about to leave now so keep your eye on it.

Cheers.
Garyf.

Nailed it Garyf,

It's a good 3 now so 7-1 at Flemington becomes a selection.

It's magnificent again in today in WA.

The Schmile

Well I guess one could only describe today's performance by Atlantic Jewel as 'Black Caviaresque'! So good to see her return in fine fettle and a mighty spring awaits if she can stay sound!

Liveandletdie let the system down, however I think I was able to pick up some info for future selections which is the point of this thread.

Results on CS out 2 in 1.4 P/L -.6

2 of the 3 non selections got beaten by over 3L and the winner Rocker got in by a nose. Profit on a win lay was +0.42.

Interestingly, Rose was absolutely nowhere in my ratings and ran accordingly. For those using ratings and looking for short priced lays or value selections with the favourite out, it might pay to go over her figures. She started at close to evens.

Have a great night everyone and hope you backed a winner or two!!

The Schmile

Happy Sunday all,

I've decided to end this thread and monitor the method offline for a while. It's probably frustrating to read while I don't reveal the source of my ratings and how I come to core selections.

Some short-term discoveries/thoughts:
- I'll probably extend the track rating criteria to include dead tracks if the selection shows a distinct liking to it.
- I might start laying a couple of fav's a day if the general trend continues with the non-selections.
- Clear top-pick + 'odds on' may yet prove a powerful formula.

The Schmile