Pre-Post Favourites
 

I have started this thread due to the recent discussion raised by Dale regarding Pre-Post Favourites. With the latest Bet Selctor update I have been able to do some testing back to December 2011. In addition to the system I posted under the Rock Hard thread, here is another.

Rules:

-must be Pre-Post favourite (determined by AAP)
-must be NSWTAB favourite at race start
-must be top Handicapper rating (equal top is ok)
-must be a last start favourite
-age 3-5
-allotted weight <59kg (not including claims)

Results from test period Dec 2011 - Mar 2012:

135 selections
72 winners
53% S/R
185 unit return
50 unit profit
37% POT

When combined with the Rock Hard system:

193 selections
101 winners
52% S/R
268 unit return
75 unit profit
38% POT

Only 4 months of data to test with but with only a few simple rules it could be an effective long term system. I'll run a check on selections for April so far and post up the results.

Hiya Mattio,

Can you please clarify 'top handicapper rating'?

Cheers mate,

The Schmile

Hi TheSchmile,

Sorry mate, I should have clarified that the Handicapper rating is the rating the official handicapper gives the horse to allow them to compete in certain races such as Benchmark 80 etc. I'm not sure if this is in most formguides but they have in on the RISA website under Acceptances.

Cheers,

Matt.

Thanks again Mattio,

I'm assuming you're using NSW totes again so results look promising.

Did you include maidens in your rules?

The Schmile

Yes mate NSWTAB dividends so better prices will make for better results. I have left maidens in the rules for this system as they are not detrimental to the system at this stage - quite the opposite actually.

In the test period there were 24 maiden selections for 15 winners at 63% S/R and a 70% POT. I am making 1 further rule in that the track must be either Good or Dead, Slow and Heavy tracks are to be avoided. This extra rule dropped off quite a few unprofitable bets and gave the following results for the combined systems:

168 selections
90 winners
53% S/R
241 unit return
73 unit profit
43% POT

Hi Mattio,

Very interesting stats here and theory. Does this include every day of the week, and all venues. Do you have a breakdown for say just saturdays,

Paul

Hi Paul,

The figures are for all days and venues with the only exception being the Rock Hard system does not look at Thursdays as for some reason it is very poor on that day. Saturday's are not too bad 46% S/R and 16% POT with the best days being Wednesday and Friday with a combined S/R of around 70% from 36 selections.

I'm not sure about the long term future as I have only 4 months of data but I really like finding profitable systems around Favourites so I am hopeful it continues.

I am also looking at the other side of the data trying to find good lay systems as well.

Cheers,

Matt.

Yes! the old term for this is called "Cybernetics" and I can tell you that you are definitely on the right track (no pun there)

Thanks for the input party, you might have to elaborate a little though as a Google search quickly had me scratching my head in a Homer Simpson style fashion.

Incidentally a link on the search gave me the name of a mathematician - Norbert Wiener.....do you think that bloke had it rough as a kid?

Hey Mattio

Nice work here, be careful what you put up on a public forum though mate.

Hi Dale,

Yeah I know but as Bhagwan says you can post a system up and the majority of people will stop using it the minute it hits a bad run and inevitably favourites will hit a bad run.

I have already found another favourites system that gave me a 2% POT from over 800 selections in the 4 month test period so I am going to have some fun breaking that down.

I found a few nice filters around pre-post favourites that gave me a potential lay system over the same period with 90 selections and only 11 winners (all favourites too) for a 61% LOT at TAB prices.

Cheers,

Matt.

mattio,

Just a heads up that the favs have been running slightly above their natural strike rate and pot for the last 8-9 months.

Any systems base don favs over this period are liekly to show better results then can be expected over the longer term.

I suggest you check the strike rate of just every fav and see what it has produced for your results. Is it at or above 34% ? If so then I suggest you take a wait a see approach for these systems.

While there (probably) is no doubt that the fav strike rate has been running higher than the norm over the last 8-9 months, is it also possible that with the plethora of information available nowadays that the ACTUAL best horse is being picked by more of the info and is then backed into favoritism by the public and therefore winning at a higher strike rate?

This would thereby drag the strike rate up and maybe the current 34% average strike rate may be the new norm.

Yeah good point, I just worry about the proffesional takers who sit and wait for something like this. Genuine people will work for the results and go on the journey with you.

Could be a number of reasons, my first thought is that perhaps its not so much the plethora of information but the plethora of weak low class races ie maidens which favorites have a sligthly better record in.

That and small fields as the product get more and more watered down with the over abundance of racing.

Re the strike rate of favourites. For what it's worth, Felicity wrote in this forum in 2004:

From 1/8/91 to 31/7/01. All going, all fields, all trax. Dist. LESS THAN 1200 m.

61,402 Sole faves.
23,072 Wins (37.6%)
43,919 places (71.5%)

So, while we've come up with different reasons for the higher strike rate, it is still possible that 34% may be the new norm. And maybe even higher down the track (so to speak)?

Also:

All races 1/8/91 to 31/7/01 ONLY criterion is race number. SOLE FAVOURITE.

R1....37.8%/72.8%
R2....36.6%/70.7%
R3....35.3%/69.4%
R4....34.4%/68.6%
R5....32.8%/66.5%
R6....31.5%/64.3%
R7....29.5%/60.6%
R8....28.2%/58.6%

For the same period 48,111 Maiden race Sole Faves gave 35.7%/69.4%

And:

As before but NO Slow or Heavy going and NO Maiden races. <=1200 m. Sole Fave.

R1...41.4%/76.9%
R2...39.5%/74.9%
R3...38.3%/72.9%
R4...36.8%/70.7%
R5...35.4%/69.6%
R6...33.1%/66.2%
R7...31.9%/62.2%
R8...30.1%/61.1%

Interesting stats there Bernie.
Thanks for sharing those findings.

There was a period in the UK where 70% of Favs were winning, week after week
It was weird .
Chrome Prince commented on it at the time.

But at the end of the year , Favs still averaged 30% across the board in total.
It all averaged out in the end.

That 30% could be considered as a constant in racing, because its been that figure for the past 100 years even with or without computers.

Its when one uses certain filters , that can increase the SR.

Thanks for the heads up UB, I had always planned to see what happens over the next few months before considering betting the system, especially as the testing was done during a period when the racing wasn't the best going around. It will need to be tested during the carnivals and also the dreaded Winter before and true results can be had.

Cheers,

Matt.

Hi mattio,

I'm relatively new to these forums and haven't checked them in quite some time. I was reading through this thread and Dale's regarding system testing and it spiked my interest. I generally bet on sports (AFL, NRL, NBA) and have been doing so profitably posting my plays for free on my blog.

I'm looking at adding a racing element to my blog and have some ideas in mind for systems but haven't got the software to test etc. I'm wondering if I can possibly email you my ideas if you'd mind testing for me? Totally understand if you wouldn't like to :)

Looks like you / Dale may be onto something :)

Email me with what you would like to do and we'll go from there, weststigers4life at hotmail dot com.

email sent :)