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Stix 17th April 2012 10:57 AM

Tipster Polls
 
Morning All

Just wondering if there is a site where historical tipster polls are available? i.e. Hearld Sun Form, Sportsman etc

UnitTab selections are easily obtained, but those other printed forms are not something I've ever looked at.

Thanks In Advance

Stix

Stix 17th April 2012 11:08 AM

Sorry have found the Hearld Sun on line form guide: http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/s...cing/form-guide

They do provide some historial tips for the major meetings.....

Stix 18th April 2012 09:54 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stix
Sorry have found the Hearld Sun on line form guide: http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/s...cing/form-guide

They do provide some historial tips for the major meetings.....
Actually.....they have very limited historical tipster polls, maybe for 3-4 meetings a week (usually Saturday, but even then spasmodically!)

Anyone able to assit? Thank you.

Bhagwan 18th April 2012 11:24 AM

There is a mob called...

The Great Tip Off (Google)

They monitor all the Aust tipsters.

Bhagwan 18th April 2012 11:41 AM

I have found that the Radio TAB has the highest SR amongst its Top 2, compared to any newspaper or subscription service.

Based on 21,000 races.

Its SR is ...
1st sel 26%
2nd sel 19%
3rd sel 14%

Top 2 selections = 45% SR

Most other tipping formats have that percentage SR for their Top 3.

So all you have got to do, is bet one of them that you know, is value to ability, for 4 units & bet the other one at 1 unit as a sort of Saver bet..
4 + 1

There 45% SR

The SR is 48% if you target the first 4 races only.

Your now laughing like a Hyena.

Stix 18th April 2012 02:24 PM

As always, Thanks Bhagwan.

I was interested for the fact a friend of mine mentioned a system of using the top polled horse as the selection in a loss chasing scenario.....it scared the crap out of me, so was hoping to find some historical data to convince him otherwise....he won;t listen to me, as he has won a couple time already on it...without a lot of outs (lucky him!)....

I did a few dry runs on the scant superform tips - where the rules were:
* Must be selected by first >50% of tipsters (so where there are three tipsters, at least 2 must have it on top (3 from 4 on top, 3 from 5 on top, 4 from 6 on top etc)
* Bet until a result
* each losing bet, double the next 1,2,4,8,16,32 etc

...now you can see how crazy this is....

I personally don't use tipsters, although I do leave alone specials for the day...usually not my price anyway....


Forgot to say...money is not a problem for this bloke.... :o

Shaun 18th April 2012 04:27 PM

Lets see the money problems he has after doing that for 12 months.

Bhagwan 18th April 2012 10:11 PM

I'm sorry to say, but your good friend will wish he had never heard of staking plans if that's the approach he is using .

All selection plans , no matter how good they are, have runs of outs.
I feel your friend will hear non of that.
I feel you may have lost him to the other side, called La La Land.
You could try & catch him, when he returns back to Earth

Here is something similar, following the UniTAB tipsters.
It has it's good days.

RULES
Target Radio TAB Top 2
Target Late Mail Selection.
Late mail selection has to match one of the Radio TAB Top 2

Must be 2.60+

Staking plan that can work, if things go our way.
1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 ect
Bet along the ladder, win or lose, until in profit.
Then start again.

Stix 19th April 2012 06:56 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
Lets see the money problems he has after doing that for 12 months.
True, he's very pig headed too, bad combination...!

norisk 19th April 2012 07:23 AM

Always chuckle at these types, as I posted in another thread sometime ago, against my (& others) advice, a mate did similar loss chasing with NRL fav's - did a packet, not that it really mattered to him other than the old pride taking a pinch;)

Try Try Again 19th April 2012 02:14 PM

I have had reasonable success over the past few years supporting horse only picked by a single tipster in the Herald Sun Tipsters Poll. It could be picked 1st, 2nd or 3rd but must be picked only by one tipster.

I run it through several rules such as must be <=$11.00 in the prepost market, no 2yo, and have a >= 20% win strike rate. There are a couple of others but I don't want to give away the farm just yet!

It hits good priced winners as it gets away from what everyone else is doing - backing the "shorties".

Comments are welcomed.

snooper#1 19th April 2012 02:29 PM

Low content.

The Ocho 19th April 2012 03:00 PM

Off topic.

Lord Greystoke 19th April 2012 03:29 PM

Never bet against Shelley Hancox(The Age) regards her 'star bet' of the day.

As much as 90%(or more?) of all standout selections from tipsters across the papers will flop on a given day, yet hers will get up!


LG

norisk 19th April 2012 03:34 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by snooper#1
i like tipster polls, we used to have gun at head of tipster in obazikstaan, he tip losers we go bang. we get many winners that way, the siberia guineas was one of my best days.



oh for it to be so easy, my toe cutting days could get a revival;)

snooper#1 19th April 2012 05:49 PM

Low content.

snooper#1 19th April 2012 05:56 PM

Low content.

Shaun 19th April 2012 06:10 PM

Waste of forum space.

snooper#1 19th April 2012 06:10 PM

Low content.

Vortech 19th April 2012 06:11 PM

Off topic.

snooper#1 19th April 2012 06:11 PM

Low content.

The Ocho 19th April 2012 06:18 PM

Off topic.

Vortech 20th April 2012 04:16 AM

I have just recently been watching the Get On Program on TVN. They mentioned they have a 55% strike on their best bets.

Anyone recorded any stats from these guys? e.g Mick Sharkie and co

Stix 20th April 2012 06:58 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vortech
I have just recently been watching the Get On Program on TVN. They mentioned they have a 55% strike on their best bets.

Anyone recorded any stats from these guys? e.g Mick Sharkie and co

No stats, but when I have caught the program occasionally they have grabbed a few winners. I had a little on a winner at $7.50 a month or so ago. They seem to steer clear of tipping <$3, which helps....more like my price range.

Bhagwan 21st April 2012 05:49 AM

You may wish to see if their tips are monitored at The Great Tip Off site.

Vortech 21st April 2012 06:12 AM

GTO website would be alright if you could grab early market odds instead of NSW tote.

The Specials this Weeek (On the Nose)

MR 4 - 2
SR 3 - 9
MR 8 - 9

Each Way
MR8 - 2
SR7 - 6
SR9 - 3
SR6 - 16
SR8 - 10

Stix 23rd April 2012 08:24 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Try Try Again
I have had reasonable success over the past few years supporting horse only picked by a single tipster in the Herald Sun Tipsters Poll. It could be picked 1st, 2nd or 3rd but must be picked only by one tipster.

I run it through several rules such as must be <=$11.00 in the prepost market, no 2yo, and have a >= 20% win strike rate. There are a couple of others but I don't want to give away the farm just yet!

It hits good priced winners as it gets away from what everyone else is doing - backing the "shorties".

Comments are welcomed.
Worked well on Saturday....from a quick look....
Morphetville Viking Star ($10+), Molto Bene ($13+)
Caulfield Kolonga ($17+)

Stix 25th April 2012 10:42 AM

Today's Single Tips:

Flemington
R2-3 Tennessee Willis
R4-9 High Kingczar
R5-3 The Wingman, 10 Supremacy
R6-2 Methuselah, 5 Duel Lover, 6 Compelled, 13 About The Journey, 15 Wittenoom Way
R7-4 God's Window, 6 Verdasco

Stix 25th April 2012 07:24 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stix
Today's Single Tips:

Flemington
R2-3 Tennessee Willis unp
R4-9 High Kingczar unp
R5-3 The Wingman, 10 Supremacy 3rd 2.50
R6-2 Methuselah unp, 5 Duel Lover unp, 6 Compelled unp, 13 About The Journey 3rd 18.80 :D, 15 Wittenoom Way unp
R7-4 God's Window unp , 6 Verdasco 2nd 2.30

Could of been a very good day....

Stix 27th April 2012 12:31 PM

Single selections from Tipster Poll - April 28

Randwick
R1 Fast and Sexy, Xatel Ekwa, Anise
R3 Trophies, Rowie
R4 Shannara, Foxstar, Fill The Page
R5 Albert The Fat, Centennial PArk, Ofcourseican
R6 HAwk Island, Precedence
R7 Rekindled Interest
R8 Latin News

Caulfield
R1 Red Colossus, Lordoftheparrots
R2 The Long Road, Hes A Hotty,
R4 Baldez, Infinite Energy
R5 Slewsay, Her Diamond Rock, Two Sugars, Stacey Lee, Rheinfels
R6 Above, Pitt Street, Gold Sand, Josimar
R7 My Girl Tess, Temper Tantrum
R8 Kelly Royale, Fashion

See how they go....

Stix 28th April 2012 08:46 PM

Crap Day today.....



Quote:
Originally Posted by Stix
Single selections from Tipster Poll - April 28

Randwick
R1 Fast and Sexy, Xatel Ekwa, Anise
R3 Trophies, Rowie
R4 Shannara, Foxstar, Fill The Page
R5 Albert The Fat, Centennial PArk, Ofcourseican
R6 HAwk Island, Precedence
R7 Rekindled Interest
R8 Latin News

Caulfield
R1 Red Colossus, Lordoftheparrots
R2 The Long Road, Hes A Hotty,
R4 Baldez, Infinite Energy
R5 Slewsay, Her Diamond Rock, Two Sugars, Stacey Lee, Rheinfels
R6 Above, Pitt Street, Gold Sand, Josimar
R7 My Girl Tess, Temper Tantrum
R8 Kelly Royale, Fashion

See how they go....

TheSchmile 29th April 2012 08:33 AM

Hi Stix,

It might help to introduce a rule such as minimum price of fav in the race $3-3.50?

It could help strike rate overall.

The Schmile

Try Try Again 29th April 2012 10:53 AM

Hi Stix,

I have found that by only backing selections in races with 12, 13 or 14 starters I achieved my best results. It has been several months since I have back a good priced winner with this method and am currently on a 20 losing streak (only on Melb Metro Saturday meetings). Still running at 86.4% POT even with this losing streak. Lowest priced winner $4.60 and Highest priced winner $21.40. 146 bets with 26 winners and 17.8% S/R since 2/01/10.

Stix 29th April 2012 12:57 PM

Most of the selections are those thrown in for fourth by the tipsters, so would suggest that may be part of the poor performance.

If I get time on Wednesday, I'll use the following Rules

1. Listed once only to run a place (first, Second or Third)
2. Races with Runners >10
3. No races where PP fav is <$2.5


Why the changes?
Rule one - eliminate those just thrown in for value etc
Rule two - Try and provide a bit more value (?) with bigger fields
Rule three - Again looking for better value betting races (?)

Try Try Again 3rd May 2012 11:17 AM

Hi Stix,

I have ignored the tipsters 4th selection when I consider horse's only tipped once since they are not listed in the Tipster's Poll in the Herald Sun.


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