Profiting from the Crowd
 

I'm a big fan of the wisdom of the crowd and have been able to profit from it in a number of punting and non-punting ways. I've just stumbled upon this short YouTube video that in a roundabout way (via jelly beans) shows why the punting public tends to get it pretty right.

http://youtu.be/982E49KAMyw

I've mentioned this book a few times but it's worth mentioning again. If you think outside your punting square there's some very useful leads contained within.

http://www.amazon.com/The-Wisdom-Cr...i/dp/0385721706

Enjoy :)

Interesting youtube video there Angry Pixie. So I guess your saying that if you found as many tipsters as you could lay your hands on, and take the "average selection", you "should" be ahead.

Paul

If you could aggregate their selections somehow that would be one thing you could do. I would be looking more at things that put a numerical figure on the selections though. ;)

You could do a 3,2,1 format for their tips then come up with a total than create a price, similar to my Consensus ratings.

Lets start a list and see how many we can come up with, have to be aware some tipsters use the same service to get the tips so will always be the same.

must have at least 3 selections most of the time.

Radio Tab
Guest Tipster

Thanks Angry for that most informative link.

But it raises the question...
Can it pick a little vinner .

The answer is yes

I ran my data base through a number of things & this is what I came up with.

By targeting 5 tipsters exactly.

Target their top selection.

If we to only bet those that where tipped 3 times exactly on top .

These indeed had a 30% SR ,the same as favourites , but the difference was, that they did not always start as race favourite.

It amazingly produced a level stakes profit of +10% POT


Go figure.

Evening Pixie

Yes, in my experience you are correct on this, although it's a bit like 'fuzzy logic' to apply.

I have found that looking for 2-3 different 'signals' or indicators to support a certain selection can significantly strengthen the case to back it. A bit like a set up for a trade.

Also similar to one of the fundamental principles of auditing (if my 1980s memory serves me correct) ie collect information from different sources to evidence an event - if the data gathered collectively points to the same or a similar version of events, you are probably looking at a 'truth'.

So - not a precise science, but a mechanism to support an assumption or conclusion without needing to examine all the records or data = every occurrence of the event.

Find the right 'signals' in the right races and the winners seem to come a little easier, albeit with a lower average DIV it seems.


LG

I also noticed they now have some paper form guides on the NSW and VIC tab websites, not sure how often they have this but it does provide some options.

Interesting statistic Bhagwan.

DO you have the equivalent numbers for where Top Selection has been picked 2 times across the 5 'wise men'?

From what I can see, it yields a similar result to a single star bet ie it flops most of the time and is a good candidate for taking out of your top chances, when it comes to finding a winner*

If I only I had your data engine to churn out these gems.


Cheers LG

* except where Shelley Hancox has tipped it but then again, she probably doesn't qualify as a wise man. We can be thankful for that!

This is more what I was thinking. ;)

Here are the "crowd ratings" for todays Flemington quaddie races. Bit quick and dirty. Three well known, easy to obtain sources. Not much into ratings, so you guys can work out the prices. :)

FLEM Race 5
1 66
2 64
3 ---
4 ---
5 100
6 81
7 75
8 87
9 63
10 73
11 60
12 74
13 92
14 64

FLEM Race 6
1 100
2 80
3 90
4 86
5 82
6 71
7 69
8 70
9 60
10 79
11 80
12 76
13 67
14 74
15 83
16 71

FLEM RACE 7
1 81
2 95
3 ---
4 90
5 ---
6 91
7 100
8 99
9 ---
10 ---
11 ---
12 78
13 77
14 77
15 87
16 60

FLEM RACE 8
1 69
2 87
3 100
4 75
5 100
6 63
7 99
8 ---
9 60
10 79
11 93
12 100

Here is some prices, these ratings are not fully compatable with my pricing but should give a guide.

just for a bit of fun

Started off well there guys.

To be true to the wisdom of the crowd I suppose we'd have to accept that the market price is more accurate than the rated price. Therefore the rated price should perhaps be the maximum that should be accepted.

Your right ... The wisdom of crowds says the more people provide input the closer the result will be to the correct price. It was proven that a small crowd of "experts" actually did worse then a larger crowd of the public .

The same happens here. The final tote price is going to be closer then the experts selections over the long run. The real gems are to find out where the crowd is consistenly wrong and profit from that.

Just read that back and it sounds pretty sarcastic. What I was trying to say is that we started off well on the first couple of races. :o

Hi Greystoke.
With those 2 remaining top 2 selections from 5 Tipsters where 3 tipsters have picked same horse.

Those remaining 2 where all over the place they wouldn't win that often but they sometimes hit some larger prices , so I would not be inclined to lay them.

That 3 from 5 was based on taking the average as per that video .
In this case 2.5 rounded up to 3.

Doesn't really matter if the public is consistently right or wrong, it's the consistency that matters. We live in the time of betting exchanges. Buyers and sellers - backers and layers. We can do either one or both at the same time. We can back our selections one day and lay them the next.

My best selection method at present has made a whopping lay profit of 3.89 units after 5848 bet's! :D It's amazingly consistent. Since March 12th the expected lay winners is 5213. Observed lay winners is 5214. Bank has increased 415%+ since that date.

Profit follows consistency is my current mantra.

& with the public being wrong ~ 70% of the time, we should be set, no?;)

Could be ;) You've got the tools.

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_for...ead.php?t=23709

Crowd ratings for todays Adelaide Guineas. Have included some conservative prices.

1) 100 $ 3.90
2) 76 $ 7.70
3) 83 $ 6.00
4) 90 $ 4.90
5) ---
6) 63 $15.90
7) 54 $55.30
8) 59 $24.60
9) 53 $94.50
10) 96 $ 4.30

This race is a bit of a lottery.

MORP 6

1 85 $6.00
2 95 $4.60
3 91 $5.00
4 78 $7.70
5 78 $7.70
6 80 $7.10
7 76 $8.10
8 ---
9 83 $6.50
10 71 $10.20
11 100 $4.10
12 68 $12.70
13 85 $6.00
14 84 $6.20
15 60 $24.60
16 63 $18.70

And another lottery

MORP 7 SA DERBY

1 100 $4.30
2 89 $5.80
3 94 $5.10
4 95 $4.90
5 91 $5.40
6 83 $7.30
7 82 $7.70
8 77 $9.40
9 78 $8.90
10 82 $7.70
11 65 $25.50
12 73 $12.20
13 ---
14 ---
15 65 $25.50
16 73 $12.20
17 84 $7.00
18 60 $115.80

:( Big quaddie coming in SA today???

MORP 8

1 100 $3.70
2 82 $6.40
3 73 $10.30
4 71 $12.00
5 69 $13.00
6 78 $7.70
7 79 $7.30
8 94 $4.40
9 74 $9.70
10 86 $5.50
11 73 $10.30
12 76 $8.60
13 68 $14.30
14 81 $6.70
15 71 $12.00
16 60 $61.50


Think I fluffed the Race 5 ratings a bit as they should be between 100 and 60. Doesn't change the prices though.

For consistency's sake here are the corrected Race 5 ratings

MORP 5 Adelaide Guineas

1 100 $3.90
2 79 $7.70
3 85 $6.00
4 92 $4.90
5 ---
6 68 $15.90
7 61 $55.30
8 65 $24.60
9 60 $94.50
10 96 $4.30

Not a bad Vic Tab quaddie in the end with the winners coming from within our top four of each of the four legs.

Winners were R5#4, R6#11, R7#3, R8#2

Expected Quadrella Div: 4.9 * 4.1 * 5.1 * 6.4 = $655.73
Actual Quadrella Div: $1594.60 :)

Crowd Ratings - ROSE 12 May, 2012
 

Crowd Ratings - LAUN 12 May, 2012
 

We'll continue this on a little longer so we can share the crowd love around to all the states.

GCST Race 6
1 100 $4.06
2 98 $4.27
3 78 $8.91
4 ---
5 84 $6.72
6 ---
7 79 $8.45
8 81 $7.66
9 81 $7.66
10 98 $4.27
11 82 $7.32
12 71 $14.38
13 60 $401.90
14 82 $7.32
15 60 $401.90

GCST Race 7
1 100 $4.16
2 92 $5.19
3 96 $4.62
4 72 $13.54
5 81 $7.85
6 96 $4.62
7 75 $10.91
8 79 $8.66
9 78 $9.13
10 81 $7.85
11 82 $7.50
12 60 $411.70

GCST Race 8
1 ---
2 75 $10.45
3 100 $3.99
4 ---
5 72 $12.98
6 ---
7 81 $7.52
8 85 $6.34
9 99 $4.09
10 92 $4.97
11 83 $6.88
12 74 $11.18
13 74 $11.18
14 66 $25.13
15 60 $394.55

GCST Race 9
1 100 $4.08
2 68 $19.63
3 93 $4.94
4 92 $5.09
5 87 $6.02
6 83 $7.05
7 86 $6.25
8 84 $6.76
9 91 $5.25
10 72 $13.30
11 70 $15.86
12 78 $8.97
13 60 $404.35

Hi all

If i recall correctly there was a system or maybe even a few based on the tipster selections from the Australian. I think there were 10 tipsters with a consensus tally in the last column.

Out of curiosity how do you arrive at those dividends posted.

Cheers
Ubetido

How indeed. Like everybody else they are pretty much just made up. I've no idea how accurate they are. :) See the Ratings accuracy thread.

Thanks AP

Regards
U

Arrive at some arbitrary number and divide by the number of runners in the field is probably the most common method. I use a hybrid of the late Dick Mitchell's method. You could pick up one of his books second hand on Amazon probably. Bit complicated to describe here.

U

This method originally posted here by norisk is interesting. Fiddle with the POWER figure to make the prices more realistic.

http://betting.betfair.com/horse-ra...222-040810.html

P

Late with these. Doing a million other things today.

We've visited all the major states now in our Leyland Brothers tour. ;)

BLMT Race 5
1 61 $88.80
2 62 $51.92
3 73 $9.33
4 75 $8.12
5 76 $7.62
6 73 $9.33
7 75 $8.12
8 82 $5.58
9 86 $4.73
10 72 $10.08
11 71 $10.96
12 75 $8.12
13 79 $6.44
14 73 $9.33
15 100 $3.09
16 60 $306.35

BLMT Race 6
1 100 $4.41
2 95 $5.03
3 64 $40.39
4 ---
5 91 $5.67
6 69 $18.92
7 92 $5.49
8 75 $11.55
9 83 $7.61
10 93 $5.33
11 61 $126.43
12 60 $436.20
13 83 $7.61
14 96 $4.89

BLMT Race 7
1 98 $4.11
2 100 $3.91
3 84 $6.47
4 92 $4.88
5 60 $387.20
6 82 $7.05
7 66 $24.66

BLMT Race 8
1 79 $7.47
2 65 $26.82
3 98 $3.78
4 76 $8.84
5 70 $13.94
6 ---
7 78 $7.88
8 79 $7.47
9 66 $22.63
10 80 $7.11
11 86 $5.49
12 100 $3.59
13 ---
14 60 $355.35
15 65 $26.82
16 74 $10.07
17 70 $13.94

Anybody interested in me doing these again for tomorrow? Any venue preferences?

Crowd Ratings June 16th
 

Well doesn't look like there's any interest at all in this but we do need some more results before we can draw any type of conclusion. There's some pleasing numbers come out of what we've done so far :)

FLEM Race 5
1 89 $5.51
2 81 $7.57
3 94 $4.71
4 77 $9.31
5 95 $4.58
6 100 $4.01
7 60 $397.00
8 82 $7.23
9 60 $397.00
10 76 $9.88

FLEM Race 6
1 73 $10.44
2 86 $5.30
3 100 $3.47
4 79 $7.22
5 85 $5.51
6 83 $5.98
7 65 $25.89
8 ---
9 84 $5.74
10 60 $343.10
11 79 $7.22

FLEM Race 7
1 89 $5.10
2 100 $3.71
3 ---
4 86 $5.68
5 90 $4.93
6 76 $9.14
7 73 $11.19
8 ---
9 ---
10 83 $6.41
11 75 $9.74
12 73 $11.19
13 69 $15.95
14 66 $23.41
15 60 $367.60

FLEM Race 8
1 73 $7.98
2 91 $3.41
3 100 $2.65
4 60 $262.25
5 75 $6.95
6 ---
7 60 $262.25
8 66 $16.70
9 66 $16.70
10 ---
11 64 $24.28
12 63 $31.41

Crowd Ratings June 16th
 

Crowd Ratings June 16th
 

Crowd Ratings June 16th
 

Crowd ratings June 16th