Last start win system
 

Everyone here , hands up , who have had a shot at last start
winners systems. Myself included , have tried several times , and
come up with diddly sqwat. But , try , try again , i am attempting
probably another failed attempt , but i think this can work.
Taken some old favourite rules and then added some of my own.
Seems not to work in SA (heaven nows why?) but some good results
from other states only over 3 weeks.

LSW System.
Rule 1

Every horse in the race must have had 3 starts or more.

Rule 2

Must be a minimum of 8 runners in the race after scratchings.

Rule 3

Tick every runner that has won last start. All other horses are eliminated.
If no LSW eliminate race.

Rule 4

The horse for selection will be the one with less days since last start. If 2 or
more are equal lowest , than eliminate race.

Rule 5

The selection only remains active if ....................

This is where i am testing , Rule 5. This is the final rule , and the most
important. Has been positive over only 3 weeks (except south oz???)
but will continue to seek results and post when i can . (Time is evil)

Anyone that can come up with rule 5 on their own can make this system
work , but let me know if you do , LOL.

I once was told - What goes around , comes around. But if you go
round without sharing , your wallet may get big , but so to your belly.

2 rules only.
1. LSW
2. DS rating = 1.

About break even.
Enjoy :-)

Hi Axledog,

This has returned a POT% of 35.2% since 26th Nov 2011 but if you delete SA the POT% increases to 42.9%. I agree with you SA doesn't seem to work as well as the other states although it is only 2.6 units down up to last weekend.

• Saturdays and Public Holidays only
• >= 7 starts but < 30 starts
• Win % >= 20%
• Days Since Last Start <= 21 days
• Prepost >=$2.00 but < $10.00
• Unitab rating >= 94

Results (All)

262 Bets

66 winners

25.2% win S/R

Bank +92.15 units

POT% 35.2%


Results (without SA)

217 Bets

56 winners

25.8% win S/R

Bank +93.15 units

POT% 42.9%

If you delete any Slow or Heavy tracks (and no SA meetings)


Bets 167

47 winners

28.1% win S/R

Bank +94.55 units

POT% 56.6%

It is possible to have a winning system on last start winners but you need to whittle away the deadwood and concentrate on improving horses that are fit, consistent and favoured by the market.

How long before we see this "published" somewhere?

Hi Try Try Again,

Does the selection criteria below start with a last start winner before applying the other rules?

The Schmile

Hi The Schmile,

Yes, sorry I didn't list that rule because Axledog was talking about last start winners systems.

The system has its ups and downs but overall it has made a decent profit and the profit is still on an upwards spiral.

Cheers mate.

Hope you back a winner or ten tomorrow!

The Schmile

Hi TheSchmile,

How can I not with all these great systems!!

Hope you have a blinder tomorrow as well!

Try Try Again

Try Try again,

Any chance you could short list the selections for tomorrow using this system(if any?) and post it here.. code name: "The 7-30 Report"


LG

Nice piece of research Try Try.

Well done.

I've been testing a paper system with LS Winner with the following rules

1. LSW
2. Starting Price Rank - 1
3. Runs this prep = 0
3. 33% Win (Distance / Going)
4. Min Price $3.00

Saturday Only

Anyone able to test?

Hi Vortech. If you had 20 systems like this would be OK.

Rules:-

FORUM TEST
Day of Week: 7
Dist. Win %: 33 - 100
Going Win %: 33 - 100
Runs this Preparation: 0 - 0
Last Start Finish Pos: 1 - 1
SP Price: 3.0 - 999.9
SP Rank: 1 - 1

For the last 12 months. :- including today

Races Bet: 9
Races Won: 4
S.R./Race: 44.4%
Outlay($): 9.00
Return : 16.80
$ Profit : 7.80
% P.O.T. : 86.7%

Regards
Enjay

Thanks Enjay.

How about, has it won within 7 days ever before ;)

Some horses back up well, others do not.
That's well known in trainers ranks.

My horse Chrome Prince a gelding used to back up well and eat up his food.
My mare needed a break between runs, and would go off her food.

These were Picnic racers I had, but my grandfather was a leading trainer at Limerick in the 1920's.

Especially Chris Waller. Check out his POT on Horses with a last start run of 7 days or less

Hi Lord G,

Selections today are:-

M8#1 Star Of Giselle
S4#2 Marden
S4#6 Maximus Gladiator
S6#2 Western Symbol

If you want to include Heavy/Slow tracks then add

B1#4 Za Magic
B2#11 Triskele
B3#4 Rocker
B8#12 Mawingo
B8#13 Shez Sensational
B9#1 Easy Running

If you want to include SA then add

A3#2 Beldara
A5#3 Balzeus
A6#5 Ballypatrick
A7#3 Zabeelionaire

Good luck to all and may these horses run faster than all the others!

You are a star player T 2

Picture me in a black cape and top hat, running up and down the grassy knol on each track like a nutter.. waving these fine things home.

God speed !

LG

[QUOTE=enjay]Hi Vortech. If you had 20 systems like this would be OK.

Rules:-

FORUM TEST
Day of Week: 7
Dist. Win %: 33 - 100
Going Win %: 33 - 100
Runs this Preparation: 0 - 0
Last Start Finish Pos: 1 - 1
SP Rank: 1 - 1

Scrap the Min $3 and back to Jan last year :-

Meetings considered : 2963
Win Strike Rate/Seln. : 44.7%
Plc Strike Rate/Seln. : 70.2%
Average Win Dividend : $2.39
Average Plc Dividend : $1.38


Races Bet: 47
Races Won: 21
S.R./Race: 44.7%
Outlay($): 47.00
Return : 50.14
$ Profit : 3.14
% P.O.T. : 6.7%

Av div $2.39 LRO =5

Enjay

Thanks TTA.

This is exactly what i was looking for!
Will play around and add some of your knowledge to
my own simple little system , thanks.

AD - Selections

SYD 6-2
SYD 7-4
MLB 6-1
MLB 8-1
GC 8-13
GC 9-1

----------

ADL 3-2
ADL 5-3

With the downgrade of Flemington to a Slow track M8#1 Star Of Giselle would not be a preferred selection but would be supported if you are backing all selections irrespective of track conditions or location (e.g. SA)

Just home and checking results. So you dont agree with SA racing
as well TTA. Big races today might hinder future results. Give me 5
and we will see.

Last Start Winners is a filter that forms the basis of 6 of my current systems, all are in profit for the past 4 years to the tune of 42% POT combined with about 150 bets per year so it is definitely possible to make money from LSW.

It just so happens SA got us both out of trouble.
Small profit for me , including SA , a small loss without.
Continue to try both our systems , and see what happens.

Axles LSW
8 bets 2 wins (25%)
Out 8 - In 8.4

(no SA)
6 bets 1 win (17%)
Out 6 - In 5

Mattio ,

I only achieve small POT , but stay in the + . Using only basic
rules and limited filters , eek out small profits , but profit
none the less. Try Try Again has motioned me towards many well
managed factors to entertain my system , but many hands make
light work. Not asking , and never will , for your system , just a little
insight into why you chose LSW as one of the cores of your system/s?

Impressive result yesterday Try Try

Not sure if you have posted stats here but I got...

7 selections (Excluding Slow/Heavy)
2 wins
2 seconds
1 third
2 unpl

Have you nailed a staking strategy as yet or is this still in test mode?

LG

PS You also nailed a WIN from a wet track = Shez Sensational $5 !

Hi Lord G,

I double my bet if the qualifying horse started 7,14 or 21 days ago. Logic being that it has started on Saturday class race previously rather than a country or midweek class.

After yesterday's races (betting all qualifiers i.e. not eliminating SA or Heavy or Slow tracks) the results are:-

One unit on all selections

Bank +92.45 units
POT % = 33.5%

Betting extra unit on qualifiers starting 7,14 or 21 days ago

Bank +164.20 units
POT % = 36.1%

Yesterday there was an increase in the bank of 3.6 units

Hi axledog,

I go back to a quote from Don Scott (and others I am sure) that sums it up - "Winners keep on winning and losers keep on losing". I like to find winning systems and I just found that last start winners was a good place to start. If you add the right filters then some good systems can be had.

Intersting fact also - favourites who were last start winners have a long term strike rate of almost 34% which is about 2% higher than normal.

Cheers,

Mat.

Hi Try Try Again,

Good logic with regards to the idea of horses that have raced on a Saturday last start but this is logic that probably most punters would also look at which can quickly erode any value. An example of this is a system I am looking at currently, the last 4 years on all days and all meetings it has had 747 selections for a S/R of 41.5%, of this there were 458 selections who ran on Saturday last start for a 41% S/R and 19% POT. There were also 289 selections who did run on a Saturday last start for a 42% S/R and a 7% LOT.

Now these figures don't take into account days last start or day of the week but you can see how even with a higher S/R there was absolutely no value in those selections. A test on Saturday races has yielded basically the same S/R and P/L figures, not saying this will be the case with your system but it is something to consider, especially if you are doubling your bet based on this logic.

Cheers,

Matt.

I need to correct my last post as I have discovered a non qualifying horse on the 7th April had "snuck" through!

One unit on all selections

Bank +93.45 units
POT % = 34.0%

Betting extra unit on qualifiers starting 7,14 or 21 days ago

Bank +166.20 units
POT % = 36.7%

I have also looked at how the Zipform ratings would affect these results and have noticed that if you had only supported horses that had a Zipform rating of >=58 (with all the other rules in place) then there would have been, since 18th February (as I only have the Zipform ratings for all meetings since then),

Bets 26
Wins 14
Win S/R 56.8%
Bank +62.9 units
POT % = 125.8%

Maybe this would suggest we place an extra win unit on each of these selections as well. Of the 26 selections only 2 had not raced on either 7,14 or 21 days ago - both won! The lowest dividend of these 14 winners was $2.20 and the biggest was $8.00.

We would now have 3 units on each of these horses (that raced 7,14 or 21 days ago) and 2 units on the other horses.

Our results (bringing in this new rule since 18th February) would give

Bets 275
Wins 69
Win S/R 25.1%
Bank +199.2 units
POT% = 41.6%

I think this is becoming a "tidy" system and well worth persuing. What do you think?

Hi Mattio,

My results so far indicate that by supporting the horses that did start 7,14 or 21 days increases the POT % and more importantly the Bank. I am only looking at Saturday major meetings in SA, NSW, Qld & VIC. The lowest winning dividend has been $1.80 and the highest dividend $15.80, both these have started on a Saturday previously. I know it is on limited testing but so far so good.

You said you are looking at LSW 7 days a week, have you looked at the Unitab rating to eliminate the lower class last start winners or looked at the number of starts the horses have had? This may improve your returns.

I run another system based on Open Class prepost favourites which has a 43.2% S/R and showing a 58.7% POT for nearly 6 years based on starting on a previous Saturday. I am very happy with this result, especially as the profit graph has continued on the same gradient from day 1.

I hope your success continues for another decade or ten!

Here are the qualifiers for today if anyone is interested.

12/05/2012	Caulfield	Dead	F&M	2000	Blue Nile
12/05/2012	Caulfield	Dead	Open	1800	Magnifique Soleil
12/05/2012	Caulfield	Dead	3yo	1200	Classy Chloe
12/05/2012	Caulfield	Dead	Open	1100	Stratcombe
12/05/2012	Caulfield	Dead	Mares	1200	Rue Maple
12/05/2012	Caulfield	Dead	Open	1400	Utah Saints
12/05/2012	Morphettville	Dead	Open	2500	My Ex Mate
12/05/2012	Rosehill	Dead	F&M	1100	Shelters
12/05/2012	Doomben	Dead	3yo	2000	Trump
12/05/2012	Doomben	Dead	Class 6	1350	Oak Street

Hi TTA and Matt ,


Any thing come of this?
My new system under way now (3 weeks only - 13 selections for 6 wins
but no value.....)

Still lookin , getting closer , but need price.

And you ?

Last start winner
Top ranked place percent
Career Starts >= 15

Hi Axledog,

I have revisited my system a few weeks ago after I read about looking at starters without a lot of career runs.

Formally I looked at horses with 7 to 29 career starts but I now only look at horses with <20 career starts, that are also last start winners and with a few other rules, one being prepost price is <$10. This has increased the POT% considerably.

Keep working at it I'm sure you will strike it lucky soon!

You have been TOUd. Please stick to discussing the betting system and not flaming/baiting forum members. Thank you. Moderator.

The stats show that the average strike rate of horses decreases as number of career starts increases but I am not sure how to interpret this. Should we be giving horses with fewer starts a greater rating or should we be compensating horses that have had a lot of starts?

There is no reason why the Peter Principle can not be applied to horses. They just go up in class until they become mediocre.

Is there any danger as to posting who the members responsible for issuing the TOU in the future?
Is that a problem?

Hi Axledog,

I look at the following rules for last start winners

1. Career starts
2. Unitab Rating
3. Win%
4. Days since last started (DSLS)
5. Prepost price

I only bet on Good or Dead tracks on Saturday Metropolitan meetings in SA,VIC, NSW & Qld.

As I previously indicated I changed how I was applying my rules and since 19th May there has been 26 bets for 7 winners (27% S/R) and an increase in bank of 32.4 units on an outlay of 45 units = POT% of 72%

The gold is out there - we just have to find it!

Hi axledog,

I didn't really look any further into this mate, my last start winner systems are all going well so I didn't feel the need to try and scrutinize any further. I hope your S/R continues, if you can get the best price you will be ahead over time.

Cheers,

Matt.

Interesting point raised here, I have found that most of the systems I use perform best with horses that have won a maximium of 4 races, after this the number of winners and profitability tends to drop away a bit in my experience.

Cheers,

Matt.