Heavy Place
 

Reading through this forum it seems a lot of people will not bet at rain affected tracks and I assume its because their usual form filters are less reliable. So if the smart money stays at home then perhaps there's some gain to be made from the remaining money that still swells the race pools to healthy levels.

Is it junk money? Do people over-bet wet track 'specialists' and overlook in-form runners? Do people over-bet lightly weighted horses that will 'skip along on top of the going'? Are the odds distorted by confused decisions?

A possible lead here is using UB's system... DS 1st Fav; Heavy; Place only
There were 571 selections for the System
There were 537 races for the System
There were 313 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 54.82%
There were $1501.42 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $930.42 or a percentage profit/loss of 162.95%

The Rules used were : donScottRank = 1 and cond = 'H'

If you run the DS=1 over other track conditions only SLOW barely makes it into profit. I don't know much about PLACE betting but I know some contributors here are very experienced at it. With Winter coming on I'd like to learn more. I'd be grateful if anyone could share their observations or staking methods with Heavy tracks and place betting.

That sounds like a great one rails run. The only reservation I would have is that UB has stated before that the Place data may not be working properly. I think UB would need to confirm its working alright or someone with a data base may need to test this.

But otherwise you have discovered GOLD right there in the mud of heavy going!!!

Hi Ocho

I think I read somewhere that some of the biggest nugget finds were when they poked their golden gleaming brilliance above the dirt after heavy rains... right in front of some lucky wanderer!

Perhaps UB could shed some light on the accuracy (or disparity) of the above place results from his wonderful system?

You can check them out Live today at Gosford which is rated Heavy.

Only time I avoid heavy tracks is when it is continually raining & the track is deteriorating in a big way, or after observing the first couple of races it is obvious that the track is a complete bog.

Used to keep a list of the better wet weather tracks but track upkeep in some states not what it should be of late put an end to that.

Otherwise all she's all systems GO;)

OK Ocho... Gosford here we come!

R1/1
R2/1
R3/4
R4/5
R5/12
R6/6
R7/2

I guess UB's tester doesn't take all that stuff into account - Just a HEAVY track.

So far not so good with one place from 3 races paying $1.40 the place (which also won paying $2.40) on Unitab.

Interesting to note that all three DS 1st favs have started as favs so far.

Theres always got to be a bit of judgement involved imo, whether it's wet tracks, extreme temperatures - one shouldnt just blindly whack a systems bets on each day regardless.

Not a good day at all :(

Outlay 7.00
Return 2.80
LOT -60%
Using Sportsbet Country Best

Only 2 collects from 7 races. 2 other selections ran 4th.

The track was upgraded to a Slow7 after race 4 so you need to take that into account to keep intergrity to your results.

Cheers,

Mat.

Thanks mattio. Yes, I should have checked.

Gosford- Amended to include races 1-4 only
Outlay 4.00
Return 2.80
LOT 30%

Hi gentlemen,

I recall UB posting a while ago that there was an issue with the place results on his site. I'm assuming that it has not yet been resolved, as there is a 7% loss on win bets for this method and the 150% + P.O.T. for place betting is not realistic.

I'd recommend checking with UB before going any further with this idea.

The Schmile

Sunshine Coast today- H9 upgraded to H8

Outlay 7.00
Return 9.60
Profit 2.60

Total To Date (2 meetings)
Outlay 11.00
Return 12.40
POT 12.7%
S/R 63.6%

I probably wouldn't have bothered with race 6 as selection was offering 1.10/place; but I haven't put any strict rules around this test yet.

Saturday results- Eagle Farm & Gold Coast
Outlay 16.00
Return 20.10
Profit 4.10

Total To Date (4 meetings)
Outlay 27.00
Return 32.50
POT 20.4%

Today Ballarat & Wagga.

There are about 300 placings returning $1500.

Sorry but thats around $5 a place divedend for favorties, the figures are not accurate.

Look closer guys.

Sunday results
Outlay 17.00
Return 19.20 (11)
Profit 2.20

Total To Date (6 meetings)
Outlay 44.00
Return 51.70 (29)
POT 17.5%
S/R 65.9%

Thanks Dale. You're right about the UB test results. As the DS method is used a fair bit in this forum I'm still interested to see how these selections perform on heavy ground.

Tuesday results
Outlay 8.00
Return 5.60 (3)
Loss -2.4

Total To Date (7 meetings)
Outlay 52.00
Return 57.30 (32)
POT 10.2%
S/R 61.5%