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-   -   Moeee's Greyhound Tips (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=24394)

moeee 21st June 2012 10:55 AM

Moeee's Greyhound Tips
 
This is for members that want a no nonsense guide to winning.

GEELONG Race 8

6 WY YUNG TIGER $2.4
5 ALLEN BENJI $7.6
2 DIORO $10
4 LORDIE KEATS $12
1 LE PIPPY $12.3
8 WHERE'S CLEO $13
7 WORTH NOTING $14
3 HOODED KEATS $33

As can be seen , the top selection is outstanding here , but the next best is very difficult to discern.
I don't believe that the top selection will escape Joe Publics notice and therefore will certainly start Under the Odds.
But it would be foolish to back something to beat it.

I feel that the 2nd selection will also be overbet.
To introduce VALUE , I have decided to take an EXACTA with the #2
I am guesstimating that this Exacta will be an Overlay and will place $5 on it.

moeee 21st June 2012 11:44 AM

SANDOWN Race 3

4 DYNA DRAGO $3.1
1 FIERY $7
2 TRIGGER FINGER $7.9
3 FERRARI BALE $8.4
5 ABRASIVE MANNER $9.5
6 DELFINA BALE $11
8 DAINTREE ATOM $18
7 FINEST RESULT $28

Top selection is clearly on top in a difficult Race.
A $5 FlexiTrifecta suck bet for interest
4 - 1,2 - 1,2,3,5

moeee 21st June 2012 12:11 PM

SANDOWN Race 2

1 KEVIN BALE $2.9
5 BAGGET BALE $6
7 CZAR $7.7
4 LEO THE LINE $11
2 MALVADO $12
6 SCARLET MAID $12.3
8 ELITE CHI CHI $18
3 FOLEY BALE $20

I expect the top selection to start Unders.
Here's a way of throwing $5 away.
FlexiTri.
1 - 5,7 - 5,7,4,2

moeee 21st June 2012 12:54 PM

SANDOWN Race 1

1 JUDDY BURST $3.9
5 RAZZA BALE $4.8
3 WALKING STREET $5.4
7 WHITE WIZARD $6.7
8 BURCOV NICOLE $10
2 BRAVO $20
6 SUZIE WAVES $30
4 TOM TUKAN $66

At the minute I suggest a $5 FlexiBoxTri with the top 4 selections.
The actual available Market will suggest whether there is a Win Wager to be made here.
Something like $10 about any of the 4 would do it.

moeee 21st June 2012 01:28 PM

SANDOWN Race 5

3 LEELICIOUS $3
2 PAUA OF DARKNESS $8
6 EMRYST BALE $8.5
8 KHUMBU $10
1 PURE STEALTH $10.5
4 STREETBIKE TOMMY $11
5 DOUBLE DECOY $12
7 DARLIN BALE $16

The top selection is easily the best credentialled animal to win this Race.
Its Rating is only determined by its chances of getting away safely.
If it messes up the start there is nothin' else to select from so its a Win Wager or just watch it go around as an anchor in the Quaddie.

moeee 21st June 2012 02:33 PM

GEELONG Race 7

5 SELECT STAR $6
2 ELITE APPLE $6.6
3 BLACK MIRANDA $6.8
7 DOT MAN $7.7
1 KASUNDI $8.4
4 MR. COBALT $8.8
6 VALLETTA FLAME $11.3
10 STYLISH BOXER $12

Hardest Race I have ever seen in my Life.
Take the Field in your Quaddies

moeee 21st June 2012 03:06 PM

GEELONG Race 6

1 REPRIEVED $5.6
4 HENRY STOMPER $5.9
6 BUSTINO $6.1
3 WATTLE BEE $6.5
5 ELITE CITY $7
2 CHIEF AUSTIN $10
7 DONS DAUGHTER $20
8 PITSTOP OMEN $25

The top 4 selections in the Quaddie will do for mybetting fix for this Race.

The Quaddie needs to pay a supreme dividend to make it worthwhile purchasing
I'm not even sure the 1% minimum will be reached :)

Field - 1,4,6,3 - Field - 6 for $5 worth

moeee 21st June 2012 03:27 PM

SANDOWN Race 6

2 SAPPORO $2.7
1 DYNA CARI $7
3 SILVER BRODIE $8
7 FOREVER STRONG $8.3
4 DYNA ELRIC $11
5 NUGGET CHOICE $16
6 JIMMY TWO HATS $20
8 DYNA DIGGER $22

I'm out of the zone and won't make any suggestions here.
But the top selection simply leads all the way , and that makes it 2 Blonks in a row for the Quaddie.

moeee 21st June 2012 05:07 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
GEELONG Race 8

6 WY YUNG TIGER $2.4
5 ALLEN BENJI $7.6
2 DIORO $10
4 LORDIE KEATS $12
1 LE PIPPY $12.3
8 WHERE'S CLEO $13
7 WORTH NOTING $14
3 HOODED KEATS $33

I feel that the 2nd selection will also be overbet.
To introduce VALUE , I have decided to take an EXACTA with the #2
I am guesstimating that this Exacta will be an Overlay and will place $5 on it.

I won't be leading members astray no more with erroneous pre race judgements.
I did lose on the Exacta but was rewarded with a very small percentage of the First 4 here.

I just can't tip for ******** without seeing the Final Market.
I'll try to limit my comments to what I have found during my studies.

moeee 21st June 2012 05:32 PM

SANDOWN Race 7

8 COOLAN MISS $2.2
6 LEKTRA JAY $3.3
3 FULL CIRCLE $10
1 SURON UNDERCOVER $14
7 DUDE RANCHER $25
4 DESTINI BAMBINI $26

Coolan Miss crosses easily and leads all the way.
OR
It gets run down by Lektra Jay.
Put 'em both in your Quaddies with twice the percentage with the Pink.

moeee 21st June 2012 05:54 PM

SANDOWN Race 8

1 GODSEND $3.5
2 SPIRAL BALLERINA $3.7
7 FLIP BALE $9.5
8 ALLEN ELROY $12
3 LEKTRA OTTENS $13
5 DYNA ICEMAN $15
4 QUEEN OF CYPRUS $16
6 MAX A ZILLION $16.5

One of the top 2 selections should lead all the way here.

Quaddies
3 - 2 - 8 - 1,2 for $4 worth
3 - 2 - 6 - 1,2 for $2 worth

moeee 21st June 2012 06:13 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
SANDOWN Race 1

1 JUDDY BURST $3.9
5 RAZZA BALE $4.8
3 WALKING STREET $5.4
7 WHITE WIZARD $6.7
8 BURCOV NICOLE $10
2 BRAVO $20
6 SUZIE WAVES $30
4 TOM TUKAN $66

The actual available Market will suggest whether there is a Win Wager to be made here.
Something like $10 about any of the 4 would do it.

This is an example of where early wagers lose for me.
I lost badly anyway , but there was a massive amount of money for my top selection , which caused the rest of the runners to blow out.
That made 2 animals appear as Massive Overlays.
What I do in these cases is I shortem the Odds of my top selection to allow for that I must have underestimated its ability
Unfortunately I still lost badly on the Trifecta , but thats how it goes sometimes.
Should really have got the F4 for small amount , but didn't play.

moeee 21st June 2012 07:21 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
SANDOWN Race 3

4 DYNA DRAGO $3.1
1 FIERY $7
2 TRIGGER FINGER $7.9
3 FERRARI BALE $8.4
5 ABRASIVE MANNER $9.5
6 DELFINA BALE $11
8 DAINTREE ATOM $18
7 FINEST RESULT $28

Top selection is clearly on top in a difficult Race.
A $5 FlexiTrifecta suck bet for interest
4 - 1,2 - 1,2,3,5

Getting the animals into fairly correct order but the Odds wrong is costing me plenty.
Should have got an exotic or 2 here but instead lost plenty on the Overlay
Win bet on the top selection


SANDOWN Race 9

2 YOWYEH $4
4 CORAZON BALE $4.4
1 MYSTERY PINK $5
6 PURE INSTINCT $6.6
7 FIRE UP NATE $13
5 CLASSIQUE GARCON $14
3 NEW FUN $40

top 4 selections should run F4 , but they won't.
I will take some of the lower animals for the minor placings.

moeee 21st June 2012 08:09 PM

The Tenth and last for me.

4 MAGPIE BOB $5.4
1 BLACK ELTON $6.3
7 MOOT HILL LEADER $6.8
5 ORLANDO JAY $7.3
2 VE DU MAGIC $8.8
3 ULTIMATE CRUISER $9
6 LEKTRA JOE $10
8 DESTINI WARRIOR $20

lomaca 21st June 2012 08:35 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
Getting the animals into fairly correct order but the Odds wrong is costing me plenty.
Hi there moeee, until you give up this quaint notion that you know better than the public what the price should be and chasing "overlays" according to your rated prices, it will forever be thus!

What's wrong with betting on your toppy for win or ea way and do something else for the saver? You can still set an acceptable price, or ignore the race.

Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
SANDOWN Race 9

2 YOWYEH $4
4 CORAZON BALE $4.4
1 MYSTERY PINK $5
6 PURE INSTINCT $6.6
7 FIRE UP NATE $13
5 CLASSIQUE GARCON $14
3 NEW FUN $40

top 4 selections should run F4 , but they won't.
I will take some of the lower animals for the minor placings.
Sandown is a no bet track for me but if I had to bet I'd go #7 "Fire up" ea way.

Good luck.
Cheers

moeee 21st June 2012 09:20 PM

NONSENSE!
ALL NONSENSE!!

Things will change
From tomorrow it all changes.

moeee 21st June 2012 09:24 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by lomaca
What's wrong with betting on your toppy for win or ea way and do something else for the saver? You can still set an acceptable price, or ignore the race.

I don't know what the answer is Lomaca , but I sure as 'ell can't keep doing what I'm doing.
I'm almost sure it is costing me Profits.
Perhaps I need to have more faith im my knowledge on the animals that I do know , and then adjust my Markets for the Prices of the animals that I don't.

I start afresh from tomorrow.

Cheers

lomaca 21st June 2012 09:25 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
NONSENSE!
ALL NONSENSE!!

Things will change
From tomorrow it all changes.
fair enough matey, catch up with you from time to time if the spirit inspires me to visit here again.

Cheers and Good luck in the future.

moeee 21st June 2012 09:39 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by lomaca
fair enough matey

He called me matey :)

Cheers!!


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