Tipsters Favourites Promising System
 

thought I would try one more time to stir some interest seeing that my last successful favourite system was only replied to by darkeydog2002...

Decided to put together a panel of 5 selections for each race with a first pick receiving 3 points and a second pick 2 points. Used the R&S morning line, the skyracing skyform rating and another site that had 3 tipsters. The site with 3 tipsters only pick on a Saturday and only 4 meetings so the system is confined to Saturday racing at those meetings.

A 15 pointer is one that has all 5 selections as first rated, a 14 pointer as one that had 4 selections for first and one for second and a 13 pointer as one that had 3 selections for first and 2 for second. Only the first two lines are valid for the points total.

Starting 25 August through to 08 Sept 2012, there have been:
41 selections
21 winners $49.60 return ($28.60 profit)
31 placings (incl. winners) $41.80 return ($10.80 profit)

Filtering these results further and looking for horses returning overs...I have 15 pointers with a starting price (SP) of $2.00+
14 pointers with a starting price of $4.00+
13 pointers with a starting price of $5.50+

There were 8 qualifiers with 5 winning returning $16.90 ($8.90 profit)
All dividends and SP as with NSW.

25/8/12 Moonee Valley: Rusambo (13) SP $6.00 paid $5.50 win
25/8/12 Morphetville: Southern Speed (15) SP $2.20 paid $2.00 win
25/8/12 Morphetville: Weekend Special (15) SP $2.10 paid $1.50 second
25/8/12 Warwick Farm: Steps In Time (14) SP $5.00 fifth
01/9/12 Morphetville: Lord Of The Song (15) SP $2.30 paid $2.00 win
08/9/12 Flemington: Southern Speed (14) SP $4.20 paid $3.70 win
08/9/12 Morphetville: Katunga (15) SP $3.40 paid $3.70 win
08/9/12 Doomben: Our Hussey (14) SP $4.00 sixth

Still early days yet but will continue to follow...

cheers, Rich

Hi Cosmos,

Nice idea, I like the overs concept also!

I don't wish to be a wet blanket but 41 selections returning $49.60 = $8.60 profit. Still a healthy 20% POT nonetheless.

Question: Are the results using the official Bookie SP or Betfair SP?

WELL DONE!

thanks The Schmile...well caught, my bad with the profit but as you say, not too bad considering the type of bet here...I used the R&S site to see what the SP was when looking up the results....cheers

Thanks Cosmos,
Good to see some new thinking .

Cheers
darky

Hi CosMos,

Well done on your Tipsters Panel system. So far so good!

Do you think you could use any set of Tipsters?

With this approach what do you do when one of your Tipsters are away for a period of time?

Some Tipsters pick against the "norm" e.g. Matt Stewart in the Herald Sun often picks horses others don't consider.

thanks all...

Try Try Again...I think any set of tipsters should work...tried this system many moons ago in NZ with the now defunct Friday Flash newspaper tipster poll (exactly 5 tipsters) and it worked very well....I am looking for some more tipsters to see if I can improve the system further...

Hi CosMos.

I use a similar idea with my ratings as such it is a consensus panel, i have also got the Skyform system in there that uses the same idea.

I found a useful method like this a couple of years ago. Worked it only on the Saturday races. Would take the top three

1.Unitab ratings
2. Radio selections from unitab website
3. Top Don Scott FR on Racing and Sports
4. Selections from Sky Racing experts
5. Sky ratings

Over 12 months on the Metro tracks it made around a 6% loss on unitab.

thank Shaun and Vortech...

todays selections (fingers crossed)

Moonee Valley R1: Forget 14
Moonee Valley R3: Ebony Rock 15
Moonee Valley R4: Tanby 13
Moonee Valley R5: Golden Archer 14
Rosehill R1: Gangster's Choice 14
Rosehill R3: Coup Acclaim 14
Rosehill R5: More Joyous 15
Rosehill R6: Nechita 15
Rosehill R8: Velrosso 14
Doomben R1: Flying Jet 14
Morphetville R1: Lord Of The Song 15
Morphetville R2: Da********ude 15
Morphetville R3: Snip 'n' Run 14

Any 13 pointer SP $5.50+ is overs
Any 14 pointer SP $4.00+ is overs
Any 15 pointer SP $2.00+ is overs

not so good last time out...however still in profit...I am having a look at which tracks are best and also whether 13 raters are worthwhile...some interesting things to look at over the next few weeks though need a lot more data

Started 25/8/12

If I just take the 15 points horses...accept all SP then:
16 bets
win return $18.30 14% profit

If I only take minimum $1.70 SP then:
10 bets
win return $12.90 29% profit
place bets at 30% profit

One of these horses Da********ude open at $4.00, won and paid $1.40 win, $2.70 place!!!

The 14 point horses haven't performed so well.

The 13 points horses have:
14 bets
win return $17.90

accepting SP $3.70+
4 bets
win return $10.20

still monitoring...

Any ideas of sites that have tipsters selections for each day of the week? Thinking of putting together an automated spreadsheet that does scoring similar to your idea cosmos and just seeing how it goes for fun.

Hi CosMos,

An obvious question is how do place your best when you do not know the SP of the horse until the race has been run?

In most cases it is not a problem as the price will be far enough away from your minimum of $3.70 but what happens when a horse is being supported and it is on the cusp of your minimum a minute before the race jumps. Do you back it or not? It may stay $3.70 or it may firm further.

This is a dilemma when you use SP as a rule in any system.

evajb001...I am still looking

Try Try Again...thanks for your input. $3.70 is only for the 13 points horses. I guess if it is near the cutoff point a minute before the jump I would take it.

Think I will have to look at the price just before the jump.

todays bets:

Caulfield: R3 Planet Voyage 14
Caulfield: R6 Commanding Jewel 13
Caulfield: R7 Manighar 13
Caulfield: R9 Soft Sand 13
Randwick: R1 Ninth Legion 13
Randwick: R4 Dear Demi 14
Randwick: R7 Lamasery 13
Randwick: R8 Manawanui 13
Doomben: R1 Someday 15
Doomben: R4 Say No More 13
Doomben: R7 Gypsy Pearl 14
Morphetville: R1 Pharomac 13
Morphetville: R2 Sweetener 13
Morphetville: R3 Our Sphinx 15
Morphetville: R6 Set And Forget 15
Morphetville: R7 Bagman 13