Field Sizes 8 or Less
 

Some statistics on field sizes of 8 or less.

Some interesting posts in relation to backing the first 3 favourites. Back the 1st fav to breakeven and then set amount for the 2nd and 3rd favourite. Any other horse you lose the complete outlay

Basically for the period Jan 12 to May 12, I've run a test of all races for field sizes 8 or less and taken the strike rates of the top 3 in different areas. I've done this as by backing the top 3 favourites often requires the punter to monitor the movements of prices.

These are Metro and Rural races in Australia (mid week only)

Barrier
1 - 17%
2 - 13%
3 - 15%

TAB
1 - 22%
2 - 13%
3 - 17%

API
1 - 28%
2 - 19%
3 - 15%

Win%
1 - 21%
2 - 20%
3 - 16%

Place%
1 - 23%
2 - 23%
3 - 14%

AAP Market Price
1 - 29%
2 - 24%
3 - 16%

Starting Price
1 - 38%
2 - 21%
3 - 17%

As you can see your Starting Price has the best combined three strike rates.

But the value is more in the 2nd and 3rd ratings.

Just out of interest for anyone

Thank you.

Now thats the sort of quality posts we used to get when I first started posting here.

A return to the good old days - One hopes so.

Cheers
darky

Tote Price
1 - 37.33% (loss 13.50%)
2 - 22.18% (loss 15.41%)
3 - 15.63% (loss 16.19%)

Top Three (not cumulative)
25.05% (loss 15.03%)

By looking at the AAP Market price you have

1st - 29%
2nd - 24%
3rd - 16%

The best strike rate for 2nd and 3rd raters

With some rough calculations I get the following

If you 1st rater wins 29% of the time you breakeven
If the 2nd and 3rd rater wins you get 40%
Anything else is a loser

To make anysort of profit on this system you would need to define your market percentages at 36.22% or less for the 2nd and 3rd.

I hope my calculations are correct on the attachment.

Regards

Hi Vortech ,
Have a look at 900 M races.
Bert Bogart used to bet the Fav @$4 +

Cheers

Sorry DD - I don't have any figures on favourites, only starting prices

Vortech, you do come up with some good stuff.

My oath Barn.
One of the new breed to keep a eye on as is Lord Greystoke..

Thanks Barny,

Got a very good system going at the moment for the Saturday Metro tracks.
Just can't make a good enough return on the Mid-week races yet. I suppose to many unknown factors with weak races. Just play around with some ideas from Wesmip1 and very happy with the results.

I have Bet Selector installed on PC at home with around 5 years of data, but wanted a system outside the square as you said.

I still haven't even touched on the areas of staking or laying yet. Not even sure of the best betting option in Bet Fair.

I think my next testing will be on the NZ races.

Vortech, good luck backing the first 3. My whole life is based on the statistics you've provided.......laying.

I see nothing on here from the "new breed" that actually dissects the form of the horse, analyses it's form (without resorting to paid ratings), looks at training methods, looks at all the variables, investigates handicapping methods ..... They play the odds, they may as well go to the casino or play black jack against Warnie ..... And the downside for these stats based "new breed" is that they will fail to see their system lacks logic, which is the No. 1 criteria for any successful system

Plugged in all the top ones Vortech combining Market price and SP as the one entry .....

718 seln's
302 winners
LOT 15.13%

I actually thought it might have been worse but it proves again that the popular filters lead to an overbet horse. That's logical !! Everyone loves a winner !!! (Top S/R), but that's not what this caper is all about Vortech .....

Top 3

23,255 seln's
6,525 winners
LOT 16.16%

I'm seeing a lot of LOT 15%.
If I put $1 on every horse in every Race I will end up with LOT of 15% at the end of the week.

Let's say 15% is the take-out ..... The key to winning is to identify races where the bookies / TAB ( as a direct result of the pool) have a few horses shorter than their true chances because of the horses popularity in systems / stables / handicapping / methods / late mail / ratings / whatever ..... It stands to reason that the others are over their true odds / chances of winning and some may be over by 200%+ ..... These are the ones that will give you a consistent long term profit ..... But you need skill to identify them and balls to back 'em.

Its a concept not built around single bets.

The number of horses selected is based around the calculations of the market percentages of each race

Instead of using favourites I was trying to identify another variable to use with similar strike rate

That's a bit rich given that like you, some of us have also studied the methods from the 'old masters' on here and found much merit in them

EG wespmip1's golden gem which I have tagged 'WES', PPM from Darky, CPOO(you tell me?).. need I go on?

TO someone like me, numbers and patterns are the most interesting 'puzzle' there is in life, a knee-up in the right direction by an 'old hand' every now also helps!


LG

You've confirmed my point exactly, you like numbers and patterns.

Perhaps that works in your head-world Barny, but not necessarily in mine.

What I was trying to say is that I am open to a number of different approaches, including yours ie I do not discount something I do not understand upfront or something which doesn't fit neatly into my preferred way of thinking

Can you say the same thing?

LG

You like numbers and patterns LG, and I've found a method to select races / selections, that take advantage of the vast majority that think the same as you do, and reap the rewards of the massive overs for a horse that has a chance.

I used to be open to a number of different approaches, but funnily enough (and I know you'll understand this) they all ended up as popular approaches, and far earlier for me to be able take advantage of them. Sound familiar ??

I avoid the common approach now .....

Well said your Lordship.

Every day we seel excellent Free Racing sites like r+s ,Inracing etc with their asessed prices.

If one were to just take every horse asessed to $11 and only bet those higher than their asessed price we would do well over the long term.

How simple is that - around 20 minutes for both sites to get the prices and another 10 minutes to obtain the best prices at race time.

Its not good for the set and forget type of punter but Professional betting involves getting best price - A fulltime position.

I,ve mentioned this many many times - No professional EVER bets 1 horse as there are AlWAYS 2 or more chances in ANY race.

On my Daily thread I look for races that involve 5 or 6 Chances.

And the beauty of it is that the best Professionals in the business have done the work for us.

Betting 1 horse is ok for a bit of fun but to do it professionaly will only lead to the poorhouse.

Cheers
darky

And I've not seen anywhere, confirmation that any of these ratings services show a profit. Add / Increase the weighting of your own filters and you distort the formulae of the rating service .....

Interesting comeback Barny, but note the words above which I have bolded...

Just because I like numbers and patterns does not in itself imply that I am focussing on the very same numbers and patterns which the vast majority are. You are making an accurate observation regards my preferred point of focus most of the time, but then an assumption regards this being the same point of focus as 'the vast majority'.

A numbers/patterns-focussed individual can still be a contrarian with a vastly different and sometimes opposite view to joe p

Get my drift?

LG

Yes it does !

When you find the numbers and patterns that are successful, it's already too late !

Barny, are you assuming that when these patterns are picked up by a few, they are always followed...

1. by the vast majority
2. consistently over a period
3. for the rest of their natural lives ???

How many times have we seen in this forum a comment to the effect that winning systems noted on here are often picked up & followed for a bit until they start loosing, then dropped.

Also, comments to the effect that some simple systems devised and/or identified on here long ago (derived from numbers / patterns) are still successful today, but not necessarily out there in the public domain.

LG

Hi Barny,
If you bet "overs" as the services I mentioned recommend and which every professional punter adheres to then your chances increase dramatically.

As for adding "Filters" to selections Professionally handicapped by a proven long term supplier like I,ve mentioned is just a exercise in futility.

Believe me.The eyes have been picked out of every race they handicap.

If there was anything I could pass on to the newcomer its that Multi betting is the way to go.

Cheers
darky

It's useless LG. Some people see themselves as sitting on top of their own pyramid with the rest of us as their fodder. King Tutt syndrome but he's dead now. Kind of degrading really but not worth giving much attention to if you have an open mind.

I just wonder if one has the same passion for still doing 1,000's of hours of form in 5 years from now or whether one would, by then, be looking for an external source to deliver the 'grunt work' which produces a reliable profit after a few easy tweaks.

LG, to me it appears you are an adventurous explorer and, whilst you've already found prosperous land, there are always new coastlines to map.

Food for thought, rails.

Can't help but think you are on the right track here (forgive me the pun, mate)

LG