top SP and race favourite
 

Out of interest and looking at 2011 results
Taking only Metro races on Saturday meetings
Take the Top Starting Price horse and then the different range of prices per favourite for the following

1.1 to 1.5 69 races, 57 winners +10.8%POT SR 82.60%
1.6 to 2.0 248 races, 127 winners -9.4%POT SR 51.20%
2.1 to 2.5 366 races, 149 winners -6.0%POT SR 40.70%
2.6 to 3.0 375 races, 139 winners +3.8%POT SR 37.1%
3.1 to 3.5 389 races, 97 winners -18.1%POT SR 24.9%
3.6 to 4.0 260 races, 54 winners -21.5%POT SR 20.8%
4.1 + 335 races, 68 winners -5.6%POT SR 20.3%

I might do more work on this if anyone is interested.
Can isolate particular tracks etc.

I'm at a standstill with my punting and just trying to help other with statistical information.

I find it easier to find a good educated punter that not many people follower, let him do the work and back the horses.

Not enjoyable but I'm sure my drive will come back.

V interesting Vortech.

Are you able to cut n dice by Race No. or even the same stats for R1-4 ? I ask because there appears to be a prevalence of 2.6-3.0 'ish winning favs in the early races (although don't have the stats to back this up, hence my question)

Also, are you able to expand on this one over the rest of the week for (a) gallops (b) harness?

1.1 to 1.5 69 races, 57 winners +10.8%POT SR 82.60%

Cheers LG

PS what can I do for you apart from not give you too much dull work here??

I'll have a look tonight for you after university.

unfortunately can't really do much on the harness racing but the other stuff I should be able to work out something for you

Nice one mate, thanks.. enjoy the 'college of knowledge'.

Cheers LG

Accounting and Society not the most interesting subject.

However some could be applied to horse racing in respect to positive research (back testing) and normative reserach (future trends)

Like your style mate... reminds me of my stats class in the accounting degree - enjoyed the aspect of building predictive models, never did get around to applying it to the punt however (too busy putting food on table, young family etc).

Have a good one.

LG

If you have an email addy I can send you the whole data sheet tomorrow.

Interesting I ran the test for Oct 07 to Aug 12 for SP - 1st, Price Fav 1.1 - 1.5. all races, all days

1775 Races, 1170 Wins (65.9% SR), -7.1% POT

Metro Brisbane - 75%
Metro Adelaide - 70%
Metro Melbourne - 70%
Metro Sydney - 76%
Metro Perth - 71%
Rural QLD - 69%
Rural NSW - 66%
Rural VIC - 66%
Rural SA - 61%
Rural WA - 74%
New Zealand - 49% - good laying options
Hong Kong - 58%

Good - 66%
Dead - 67%
Slow - 65%
Heavy - 59%

Colt - 71%
Filly - 69%
Gelding - 64%
Mare - 62%

Age 2 - 69%
3 - 68%
4 - 64%
5 - 60%
6 - 57%
7 - 45%
8 - 67%
9 - 67%

Monday races - 59%
Tuesday - 61%
Wednesday - 62%
Thursday - 62%
Friday - 70%
Saturday 70%
Sunday 64%

If you take then the selection process to

Brisbane, Melb, Ade, Syd, Perth and WA Rural
remove heavy tracks
only Friday, Saturday and Sunday races
Colts and fillies

139 Races - 108 Wins
77.7% Sr with 6.9% POT on NSW

Place was 88.8% strike with a small loss

Ta mate.. looks like a lolly jar stacked full of black jelly beans.

LORD
GREYSTOKE
3RD
@
gmail.com


Cheers LG

I have a bit more data, so here's how it looks:

1.1 to 1.5 606 races, 441 winners +1.53% POT SR 72.77%
1.6 to 2.0 2848 races, 1368 winners -12.79% POT SR 48.03%
2.1 to 2.5 4297 races, 1646 winners -11.75% POT SR 38.31%
2.6 to 3.0 5092 races, 1572 winners -13.95% POT SR 30.87%
3.1 to 3.5 4940 races, 1327 winners -11.71% POT SR 26.86%
3.6 to 4.0 3550 races, 804 winners -14.69% POT SR 22.65%
4.1 + 3656 races, 683 winners -12.38% POT SR 18.68%

This was Saturday metro only.

Thanks CP, one year was a little inconclusive.

I re-run the Saturday Metro results and get very similar results to yours over my data.

It is interesting that the starting price rating is irrelevant in the strike rate of a horse winning long-term.

Basically the price is the factor and a horse can be ranked 1, 2, 3 or 4 in starting price rankings and yet the strike rate per win stays the same.

This data supports that the heavy favs are underbet and good value ($1.10 - $1.50).

I concur, UB. What might be best way to stake for these based on 3 different risk profiles, I wonder...

1. lower risk/return
2. medium
3. higher risk/return etc

???

LG

1.53% is not good value at all. It's only a few losing bets away from break even then there's loss chasing at ODDS ON !! Quick recipe for disaster !!! One Eddie Birchely tried and failed, and he was much more selective.

We needn't back every one of them, Barny - check TMV's post No. 7 above.

LG

LG, you've got to have a screw loose to contemplate any sort of method for backing at prices 1.10 to 1.50.

One man's loose screw is not necessarily another man's noose?

Please elaborate by way of example(s), if possible...

LG

LG, you know as well as I do the risks. How'd you go WHEN two in a row get rolled. How's you psyche for starters, not to mention that fact that you now need probs 8 winners in a row ..... You can look at this as much as you like on paper LG ..... It's not a Term Deposit we're looking at here !!

That's just 'the thing' here, Barny - as with all games of chance, the concept of risk is partly mechanical = stats,logic etc and partly subjective = feelings, thoughts, conditioning etc Which means I don't just know what is in your head on risk.. how can I when we have 2 different approaches, perceptions etc ??

Same as it ever will be.

However, if there is a structure in place to manage risk and clean execution on this PLUS the S/R is positive over the longer run for all selections i.e. before we get selective on the events we wish to follow, select etc, then there is at least some chance of coming out ahead at this end of the book OR at worst, the potential to make a smaller loss imho

LG

PS I dont have the longer term stats in front of me to concur on needing 8 winners in a row. From what I have seen to date (which isn't much), a run of 6 might just do the trick!

PSS don't get me started on TD's !! There are far more 'safer bets' with a higher probability of a 'real return' than these..You may find that for this reason alone, a TD is far more complex an instrument than what we are discussing here?

I'm sure you can often get 5 to 10 cents or more on offer to increase the POT.

With the large amount of bets I agree with LG on this one.

There are more risks taking on a large POT with 100 bets over 20 years than this.

Just ran thru 1.10 to 1.50

1,004 selections for 700 winners at a LOT of 1.92%

Can't wait to see the excitement !!

Personally I prefer POT of well in excess of 50%.

No there's not vortech. You only need a small run of outs backing long odds on and you're dead in the water.

Is this based on Saturday metro and Bet Fair prices?
You can backfiltered a POT of 50%, but their is no way in the next 12 months can you achieve those figures. Especially with the use of a statistical database only. How do you pick which horse has the most fitness based on a formguide?

Vortech, do you happen to have some stats around the longest run or winners / loosers, average run, draw down etc OR am I pi$$ing the wind here regards the current conversation? Was mainly interested to see how a run of 6 consecutive winners might stack up over the longer term.

LG

So you saying in the next 20 years the same POT will continue over another 100 bets?

Absolutely Correct Vortech/ Absolute fantasy.
Wish we could.We would be rolling in it.
Cheers
darky

I'll email you tonight if I get time some information.

This still gives confirmation that the heavily favoured runners are underbet and are therefore a rich place to start analysing to get value.

To prove my point can you also provide a snapshot of $50+ runners and what LOT they provide. I will guarantee its more then a loss of 1.92%.

Also what market are you using for prices?

I did not say that Vortech.

I said "a small run of outs backing long odds on and you're dead in the water".

I agree, it would be a lot more. You people couldn't survive a run of outs of 3 or more. It would send you broke.

Thanks mate - anything from you on this would be mightily appreciated.

Cheers LG

If you get 10 cents or more on a $1.40 pop, then it wont be a bet will it, 'coz it will be over $1.50. A further inconsistency in your argument is that if you apply any filters Vortech your number of selections will diminish, which is against your philosphy.

You simply cannot make this a winner Vortech. There too much going against you here.

Another way to say this might be..

You simply cannot make this a winner for me Vortech. There's too much going against me here.

But that's OK too because you aren't Vortech, nor he you. Quite possibly - you are both pleased - relieved at that?!


LG

You have been TOUd. Post deleted. Please refer to members by their correct names. Thank you. Moderator.

You remind me Barney of the banker system.

It would remove all horses with a (b) against there form in the 7th race and win if won in the wet (w)

Post deleted. You have quoted a now moderated post. Moderator.

Post deleted. You have quoted a now moderated post. Moderator.

Post deleted. Refer earlier moderated post. Moderator.

I dips me lid to you UB .....

Vortech,

With an idea such as this there are a couple of ways you could tackle it, one could be to use a loss recovery (depending on the run of outs) or trending past results to help determine what days to bet and what days to watch.

I'll do an analysis of results and see if I can help you find an edge.

Cheers,

Mat.