Isn't it amazing how many horses win with form line 117 or worse i take note the last in melbourne....can any one do some research on this for me i am interested in how many horses win with a form line 117 or worse and if posible the weight they carried....i notice from an old system i use to follow that a lot of topweights win like this

Shaun, I've been onto this one for a long time, horses that win 2 in a row, often fail at the 3rd attempt but come back to win at VERY good odds on either the 4th OR 5th attempt, as you have already noticed.

I also would like to see some long term statistics, but can't afford the outlay for past results and also can't convince those that have to publish them in this forum!!

You would need some other filters to make anything out of this - like most really simple form ideas it doesn't hold up by itself. Since the start of last year (so about 15 months data) we have:

Form/Selections/Winners/Profit-Loss
117: 132/15/-28.20
118: 129/16/-65.70
119: 102/12/-19.20
110: 228/22/-90.50

Limiting to topweight only cuts down the selections a lot but doesn't make a big difference to POT

Becareful, thanks for the data, that helps.

My idea though was based on the 2 wins regardless of the placing on the 3rd attempt, and also backing the sel. on the next TWO runs, i.e. 4th & 5th attempt.

A good example Sat last was, SR 2-10 Crianca. but good stuff!

this would be the only form line i would look at

117
118
119
110

just backing the top weight would limit your selections

what about beaten lenghts in the equation.
obviously if a horse ran 7th beaten 2 lengths would be a better proposition tha one beaten 10 lengths.
perhaps the horse was checked/blocked/ridden badly/ran wide etc.

yes...i have always liked beaten lenghts rather than positions

117-110 showed a loss over 2 yrs

111-116 showed a profit 22% POT , if one places some form filters into it , such as .

Last run within 28 days
Going F or G
$3.30-16.00 in pre-post
Ranked 1-7 in pre-post market order

Not sure if any of that data was actually in reply to my idea, but thanks anyway, good stuff!
I still wonder about that 5th attempt though , regardless of the finishing possies of the 3rd and 4th attempt????

Consider Average Prizemoney Ranking and Race Prizemoney increase or decrease and you have yourself a nice little earner!

:wink:

Thanks for those figures...i guess it is one of those spot plays.....specialy when they are top weight

I'll expand a little on what I posted.

If the horse form looks like 117 for example....

Look at the relationship to the last run where it won and that unplaced run.
Then look at the relationship to the run where it finished unplaced and today's race.

It may well be that the horse was ranked first or second at it's last win API and ranked fifth or worse when unplaced.

The same applies to the race prizemoney - it could be that the two wins were in $20,000 races and the 7th was in a $75,000 race.

Today's race it could be ranked second API and prizemoney for the race is $27,000.

Could be a good bet in that case.

I also think the lengths beaten is vital.
A horse could have a 110 formline but only beaten 3 lengths.
A horse could have a formline 115 but beaten 7 lengths.

[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2003-04-23 13:51 ]

I think you are barking up the wrong tree.Suss the results of this formline out,anyone who has the facilities to do so.
121
131
141
151
161
171
181

121: -1% POT
131: -23%
141: -28%
151: -30%
161: -49%
171: -15%
181: -42%

All meetings from 1/1/02 until yesterday. Based on Tabcorp dividends.

121 could be made to show a profit without too much work (in fact it does show a profit if you look at Saturdays only) but I don't think the others look too promising (although some of them could form the basis of a good lay system for Betfair!)

Of course if you look at the previous year then 121 falls in a hole but some of the others look better. As I said before you need to include more than just the formline as a basis for your selection.
_________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2003-04-24 15:01 ]