Don Scott Market
 

Just to pass some time I looked at Don Scott's market (the worksheet on the R & S Website).

I applied the following simple rule.

In D.S's market I hypothetically backed every horse in every race that he quoted under $10 in his market providing that there were a maximum of three of them.

From Sunday there were 63 of these qualifying races for a total outlay of $153 for a return of $153.70.

However I also looked at races where there were only a maximum of two horses under $10 in his market

The result wasn't too bad. There were 31 of these races, and the winner was struck in 17 of them for a strike rate of 54%

More importantly, the total outlay was $45 for a return of $65.20 which is an amazing POT of 44%. A profit was obtained in all three days.

The results shown above are Unitab divvies.

I know three day's results can't be taken too seriously but it might be worth thinking about.

Thanks Michaelg,
Definitely worth looking at.
Cheers
darky

Added that one to my bag of tricks.

Hi, Darky.

I didn't mention this but I think it might also be worthwhile. However unfortunately I didn't keep any records.

In these qualifying races if all horses shown under $20 in his market were boxed in quinellas (didn't look at trifectas) then it might also have been profitable. There were some surprisingly large quins for relatively small outlays.

I always like your thoughts as there based on logic.
Quinella one added also.

I will test both on Country tracks as I prefer these to City meetings.

Cheers and thank you.
darky

What I,ll do is add 1 and use that as my minimum acceptable price (for Value)
i.e
M.Bridge
R 1 H 1 + 4 (Need $3)

Looks like no.1 @$3.20 FIXED

$3.10 now for 4 Fixed

Hi, Darky, hope you won today.

By my reckoning there were 22 selections for a disappointing return on NSW TAB of $16.20.

I believe the quinella outlay was also $22 for a return of $38 and the trifecta outlay was $66 for a return of $179.

These results for the above two forms of exotic betting are when there are only a maximum of two selections that are under $10 in the D.S. market, and then all others under $20 in his market are included for boxed quinellas and trifectas.

I've had a very good day with my two Lay the Field methods, and with one more race to go (Northam R7) I can't lose.

Broke even at M.Bridge with the $5.20 winner in R 4..
Cheers.

I tested a period of 7 days at the beginning of the year using this. It showed a loss of $54 on straight $1 bets.

Might just be a short term trend.

How about <=3 kilos

LG

Thanks, U.B.

That's very disappointing. How many selections were there?

Do you know if there was anything consistent, such as state of the track, size of the field?...

I just ran a quick test. I didn't include any other variables.

I also tested 2 months worth of just 1 selection under $10 and it showed a loss of about 15 units over 243 selections. Tatts prices were used.

I ran 2 selections under $10 for a month

There were 717 selections for a loss of 151.90 using tatts figures.

FR <=3 kg
$1 each selection
Tatts dividends
n = eliminate inferior selections (Neurals)

Canterbury
R4
4
14
3 W $2.40
12
13

R5
6
1
2
5 W $11.60

R6
3 W $1.90
1

R7
1
2
12
6

Summary
OUT =10
IN = 15.90
POT = 59%


LG

FR <=3 kg
$1 each selection
Tatts dividends
n = eliminate inferior selections (Neurals)

Caulfield
R5
8
6
11
10
2 W $3.50

R6
4
2
1
3

R7
2
5 $2.70
12

R8
2
10 $2.60


Summary
OUT =14
IN = 8.80
LOT = 37%

Not so good that time.

LG

Sorry mg,
Didn't mean to hijack your thread with my don scott doodles.

Will trundle off to the QQ thread and brush down some cobwebs, pour myself a stiff brandy etc

LG

Hi, L. G.

It's not hijacking because its about the same subject.

Now for my doodles.

Yesterday, in races where the top two selections were under $10 in the D.S. market but not in the top two of the Tele market then laying that selection(s) had a good day. This also applies to races where the top three selections were under $10 in D.S. market but not in the top three in the Tele market.

There were 19 of these selections for 19 smiles. I might give it a go today.

On the Win Side Michael have you considered the easier races 1 - 4 and the TC they were rated for.
Cheers
darky

Hi, Darky.

I'm sorry but I've already lost interest, however I will keep it in mind if/when I look at the D.S. market again.

That's my problem - laying is much more appealing to me than betting

Hope you are profiting from the method.

Down the tube today Michael.
Back to Bgahwans NEW @$3 +.eh.

I will keep looking for ways to improve it though and as a base I reckon its got something.
At least thats my "gut" feeling.

Cheers
darky